FB at Critical levels hereFB is sitting at a very crucial level here. After dropping about 15% from ATH levels, it just had one of its biggest drops of the downtrend so far. Because of the news that Trump Media and Digital World Acquisition Group are merging, this will be another competitor to FB and Twitter, no matter what people think. This will take some market share away from the big social media giants, and this has reflected in the FB and Twitter share prices in the last couple days.
Personally, I believe FB will use its recent acquisitions, and massive market share to blow past this minor dent and will create its own monopoly again on the social media world.
We have seen cases like in China, where WeChat runs the entire country and all transactions, pretty much, are done through the WeChat platform.
With FB trying to monopolize, and creating its own cryptocurrency, or token, we can maybe see the beginning of a new era with FB.
Things to note:
Earnings: FB announces earning on the 25th, and we can expect this to make or break the stock.
$300 is a critical level, and if FB breaks down, we could see a retest of the lows where Trump was banned from FB, and Twitter.
Buying shares at this level, and will average down if a breakdown does occur, but I do not see FB dying lower than $300, and if it does, we will see a nice long bounce up to original levels.
Short term: could be bearish, and could see even lower lows until a reversal occurs
Long term: Bullish and I think this is a good price to get started in FB shares long term.
Trump
TrumpThe predictability of crowds. Well this is not something that slowly started. I probably mentionned the history of fake news at some point, and I hzve an article as draft about it, 1 example is a fake news thatsent UK stocks up 5% in minutes centuries ago. This right here is not fake news, but same principle: price is probably not correlated to reality, it's all speculation.
Trump Media & Technology Group is merging with DWAC if you didn't know. Was this predictable? Yeah maybe. Trump and anyone that isn't a centrist or "woke" american (Alt right, communists, socialists except the american ones, US republicans, europe far right, east europe conservatives, ...) has been trying to look for social media alternative. Everyone knows it is a multi trillion dollar market. And Trump kept saying he was trying to build something, that kind of lyrics. In theory it was possible to profit from this I think, but you'd have to be super specialized. How many of these acquisition companies exist? How often are they total scams with false promises? Did DWAC throw any hints? Depending on these answers it was possible or not.
I haven't done big stats on these rallies, but from what I have seen it's probably gambling. Some "investors" will use the word speculate, because they lack the intellectual ability to think, not their fault. It's simple:
Definition of speculate
As an intransitive verb
1 a: to meditate on or ponder a subject : REFLECT
b: to review something idly or casually and often inconclusively
2: to assume a business risk in hope of gain
The meaning is totally different. In the case of investing, the context forces the meaning to be (2). The "holy grail magical just buy and hold bro stocks only go up" stuck up nerds that are persuaded they are doing the right thing assume the meaning 1-b I guess.
And then as a transitive verb
1: to take to be true on the basis of insufficient evidence : THEORIZE
2: to be curious or doubtful about : WONDER
And nb 1 here is what is assumed.
This word smells, just avoid it. You're either gambling or investing. There is no in between. Investing and holding for 5 years is not "less risky" than 2 weeks, that's super stupid, you are taking a risk (if it's stocks or FX or commodities) either way, and 5 years the risk is bigger OBVIOUSLY! Much more chaos and random stuff can happen. Guys with a crush on Warren Buffett say "oh well you know within 2 weeks it's all noise", with stocks, yes, most of the time. Then that's GAMBLING. So there is no need for an intermediate word between gambling and investing. Either you know what to expect, you have a plan based on experience, stats, or something. Or you are just gambling.
Which brings me to... These surprise mergers, how many days do they usually go up?
Ye nevermind. It's a whole project to go find these mergers, especially small surprise ones, and see if there is a pattern (like 70% of them going up for more than 3 days, or very little pullback on the way up which leads to massive RR). Don't touch what you don't know. I've always been curious on how these worked, if there was any edge. But curiosity is not enough to go through grueling labor, searching for examples... It's simpler for stock investors that pay attention to such news.
Trump can't move the entire stock market 10% anymore, but he can move individual stocks 1000%. Or more, we will see.
As I wrote this article the price shot up and crashed. Ok that's pure gambling.
Trump change the rules of the game..!It seems no matter where he is going or what he does, Donal Trump is the one who defines the rules..!
Please do not ask about the price target of this SPAC!
It can go anywhere, at the time of writing this analysis its premarket price is 86 while yesterday's close was 45, and 2 days ago it was 10 USD/share.
The question is this :
What would be the potential future of this social media and network?
Donal Trump has at least 74.2 million votes in the past election which could be the minimalistic number of his followers!
He has lots of followers in other countries as well, and his social media could provide a voice to those who feel they got censored on other social media like Facebook and Twitter.
I believe if his team manages to deliver a good platform they will have more than 200 million users easily in the first few days or weeks.
I think Trump needs this platform to unify his base for the 2024 election!
We should keep in mind, someone like Robert Mercer is one of the biggest Trump supporters..!
Robert Leroy Mercer (born July 11, 1946) is an American hedge fund manager, former principal investor in the now-defunct Cambridge Analytica, and computer scientist. Mercer was an early artificial intelligence researcher and developer and is the former co-CEO of the hedge fund company Renaissance Technologies.
I am sure no matter what is happening, Trump will be the one who benefits from this the most..!
This story has just begun..!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
SPX S&P500 double top?After calling the dip of SP500 here:
Now SPX just hit a strong all time high resistance that can turn into a double top from which we can expect a pullback to 4430usd.
Let`s not forget also that one of the FAANGs just lost 42.5Bil in post market because of a rival platform, TRUTH social, owned by former president Donald Trump.
And who knows how much they will lose tomorrow!
I`m looking forward to read your opinion about it.
FB Facebook to lose market share for TRUTH Social ???Facebook suspended former President Donald Trump until at least January 2023,but retaliation has begun.
Trump Media & Technology Group and Digital World Acquisition Corp. DWAC have entered into a definitive merger agreement.
The transaction values TMTG at an initial enterprise value of $875 Million, with a potential valuation of up to $1.7 Billion depending on the performance of the stock price post-business combination.
Truth Social is aiming for a beta launch in November.
TRUTH Social will be a competitor to Twitter and Facebook .
TMTG+ will compete with Netflix and Disney+.
TMTG news will compete with CNN and iHeart Radio.
They have also plans for a Tech Stack that includes web hosting (vs Amazon Cloud) and payment processing software (vs PayPal).
Could this be the new Twitter / Facebook platform?
Can we expect a retracement to January 2021 area because of TRUTH Social gaining momentum and market share?
I`m looking forward to read your opinion about it!
Tump`s TRUTH Social to compete with Twitter and Facebook Donald Trump announced yesterday the creation of the Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) which will develop and launch a new social network!
Trump Media & Technology Group and Digital World Acquisition Corp. DWAC have entered into a definitive merger agreement.
The transaction values TMTG at an initial enterprise value of $875 Million, with a potential valuation of up to $1.7 Billion depending on the performance of the stock price post-business combination.
Truth Social is aiming for a beta launch in November.
TRUTH Social will be a competitor to Twitter and Facebook.
TMTG+ will compete with Netflix and Disney+.
TMTG news will compete with CNN and iHeart Radio.
They have also plans for a Tech Stack that includes web hosting (vs Amazon Cloud) and payment processing software (vs PayPal).
Could this be the new Twitter/Facebook platform? we know Trump is in war with them!
Twitter permanently banned Trump from the platform in January 2021 during the final days of his term. Back then he had over 88.9 million followers.
if every one of them buys DWAC, the SPAC with which TMTG will merge, for only 100usd, the mk cap will be 9Bil. now the Market Cap of DWAC is 1.635B. So still a 5.5X upside.
The irony is that the same hedge funds that sponsored the campaigns of Hillary and Biden, now invested in Trump`s SPAC. :)
Investing right now could be like planting the seeds in Facebook back then.
My extremely speculative valuation is half the market cap of Twitter by year`s end, so considering half of Twitter`s mk cap and 1.7Bil valuation for TMTG at 10usd results 150usd price target!
We bought DWAC at 12.84usd in our trading group.
I look forward to read your opinion about this!
Never Come DownGoogle the 2016 Trump song...
Normally I discourage people from buying IPOs first day or first week. In this case I think it will be a fun ticket.
The key takeaway of 2021 markets are: more thinking = less gains
What is this you might ask?
Shares of Trump-linked SPAC close up 350% following news of social media deal
www.cnbc.com
Global events - the last 18 Months. I recently posted a timeline of Bitcoin events as well as record several videos on the current Elliott Wave moves around Bitcoin, DXY and a few Forex pairs.
Here’s a link to the Bitcoin timeline;
Looking back at the last 18 months or so now, I wanted to cover some of the significant events that have taken place, which would have had some (but not as much as you think) of an effect on the Elliott counts as a whole. For those of you not familiar with Elliott, there is a link in the ‘related ideas’ section covering the basics.
So, let’s go back in time;
Brexit announced back in 2016 – carried through and completed in 2020.
Thus, kicking off the year with a fair size event, the global markets not quite sure what the fall out would be, where the damage would come and of course if there where to be profitable positions to obtain. An awful lot of hesitation & fear seen in the market.
Jump forward to the next big event; although COVID-19 was technically pre 2020, the real effects did not start to emerge until early 2020 when the world went into LOCKDOWNS, crazy mayhem soon followed and has not really disappeared since.
After the world starts to go mad! A few other things happen during this period!
- Oil goes negative for the first time in HISTORY
- Gold hits $2,000
- S&P creates an all-time high
If this was not enough to cause global confusion, we also had an interesting period in the United States.
All though there are plenty of other events that have shaped this last 18 months or so, you can clearly see with so much – the charts will be a little more sporadic, a little harder to read. So, although methods such as Elliott and Wyckoff are still very powerful.
Even Wyckoff Schematics got a good run in the social media platforms! (Probably kicked that off in March) 😉
Interesting times ahead - @TradingView community, take care of yourself and keep in mind! It’s been a crazy 18-months, 2 years!
**(This is not a trade idea, even a bias - it's just highlighting how insane these last 18-months have been)
For education on Wyckoff and Elliott - see my bio below;
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
GBPUSD is preparing to a Possibility Down Trend.Hello Dear Traders.
GBPUSD is Now on a Major Key Level and May Something Happen in the Future that change Trend Direction. So it's better to be aware And Close or Don't open Long positions to see what potential or reaction will be here. look for your Money management and strategy at this Area.
Good Luck.
Interesting events at Bitcoins high & lowsJust playing around with @TradingView
Features - looking at the "all of BTC History" chart - this got me thinking.
What happened in world news and events on the highs and lows? Anything significant or interesting.
The one thing I didn't include was the launch of Ethereum. Which was July 30, 2015, encase your wondering.
Thought this would be interesting to share.
I won't paste links to each article - but used a site called "the week" to pull up historic dates & events.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
📖 Trading Books 📖As a trading coach & mentor, I often get asked about where to go and find resources. Anything from books to specific strategies. So I thought it would be interesting to not only share with the community some books I have liked over the years. But to ask for your favorite books, any suggestions - any thoughts on the books listed?
Even if they're slightly outside of the conventional trading manual concepts - there are some great Wall Street stories, banking or business esq books.
Be great to get some conversations going!
Here's the second wave.
The next wave - moving away from trading manuals per se;
Another list;
And lastly some books worth mentioning but were just off the top 20 spot.
So what are your best books? why? what do you make of some of the books mentioned?
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
#SPY OR SPX500 OR S&P500 ANALYSIS FOR MARCH 2021Hello Traders,
Welcome to March 2021,
It has been quite the mixed start in the markets especially with the huge sell-off in the Technology sector. This has
alerted us to activity taking place in the market and we've decided to see if it's really a turn for a BEARISH Stock Market but it doesn't
seem that we are there yet. After the week of predominant sell off in the markets, we've spotted the S&P Index for a Buy opportunity.
As of now, this week seems to be in corrective mode after February's buying, so we shall see next week onwards if bullish action
continues above $3900 and higher.
TVC:SPX
The Trading Regime.
Always trade ONLY with what you are ok to lose. Recommend max 3% of account balance per trade, 10% total account exposure.
DISCLAIMER: Futures, stocks and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. The valuation of futures, stocks and options may fluctuate, and, as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. ... All trading strategies are used at your own risk.
short term long to short
US strength could be the LPSY of the AUD - this means we could get a high to the BC, some rangebound moves and then the drop to around 74000 level.
in terms of Elliott, we are either in the 3-4 down or if we get a new high here it will be a fake-out and then down.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Don't Be Fooled By BEARISH GOLDSome interesting info on Gold.
Reading a couple of articles on Gold. I feel the general consensus is Death to Dollar & Strength on Gold. I feel the Global pandemic has shifted the normal correlation across the entire market and possibly every instrument.
If you look at the spike in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, dealing gold a series of setbacks. This is far from over...
Coupled with the geopolitical risk component that has held up gold for decades has almost vanished too, with the shiny metal falling instead of rising from a recent flare-up in Middle East tensions.
Things are not what they seem.
From a technical standpoint only;
Main swing from the 2016 low has made a 1.618 spike and pulled back to the 100% Level (1) before shooting up to the 2.618.
Secondly - the 1.618 level on the smaller swing move is around the $1,655 level. We could see this level.
Step up to the monthly level and we can see an extended Regression channel - touch the outer channel.
Supported by monthly Stochastic pointing down.
This shows the levels of trapped traders - currently in Long positions - If you look left, we could see a repeat of this last spike down.
Xau (Gold) Strength is also falling still and has room even to the 50% level as per the strength indicator.
Drop down to the daily & we can see the price has broken the X-Trend structure to the Bearish side. As well as the XAU strength being less than the DXY in the short term.
So in the short term, we could expect some more moves to the downside.
A potential push up to the trend around 1,850 could be the current roof until the move down completes.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.