Trump
Short and Long moves playing out EURUSDAs this pair is currently in an overall uptrend it's only now nearing its 4th wave completion of a weekly Elliott wave. Supporting this aspect of the move, there's a 5th wave extension measured with Fibonacci levels, just under a daily imbalance zone (further magnetic pull to the downside.
You can see the basics of the Elliott move - I have highlighted it using Midpoints of the price to make it clearer to view.
In addition to this the DXY which is counter to the EU - has a weekly bias to the Bullish side.
And of course, the opposite then applies to the stochastic on the EU itself.
The above also shows the Golden zone for the major Fib pullback between 50 & 61.8%.
In terms of momentum, we have a download of pressure shown on the Oscillator.
Our Quadratics Indicator also shows a move from above the Mean level coming below.
There is also a Demand zone at the same daily 5th extension shown in red here;
We can see the closest pull being a daily Imbalance
With this being said - the overall Bias is Bullish, but we would like to see the drop to complete the pattern before the next major rally.
Have a great weekend!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
US 500
Hello, receive a cordial greeting, we are sorry not to have published in recent weeks but here we are again to offer you our vision of the financial markets.
USA again setting new records.
HOW YOU THINK THE FINANCIAL MARKETS WILL BEHAVE IN 2021 WITH BIDEN? ????? .
Sincerely L.E.D
In Spain on 01/21/2021
BITCOIN - BTC, Crypto - Short to Long (fair Value level)I don't often trade crypto as spot, but as an investment company, we have crypto holdings.
Bitcoin has entered the world of investments at a professional level & in doing so, the moon is a likely scenario as they say. But to do that on a professional level, much like any other chart, a fair value needs to be obtained for the bigger players to keep their interest.
With that being said - a current fair value is around $26,500 so we could expect a drop to this region before it shoots back to its $40k + high. and possibly $50, 75 or even 100k being its next slowdown.
In investing terms - you will have the HODLERS, you will have the lucky, you now have the inexperienced and the pro's coming at the same pace. The Pro's and the inexperienced where probably the ones who took out the $170Bn in market value in 24 hours. The guys who jumped in at 35k+ plus saw no way of it slowing, and that's where the drop set in.
If we now compare to DXY, Gold and SPx as it's aligned to all of these areas in some ways. The DXY is expected to rise, then drop again to create a weekly Elliott 5th wave. COT data supports this.
The issue is - that retail sentiment is short things like Euro currently pushing DXY strength, which is a catalyst for BTC drops. This is also supported by stochastics on higher timeframes showing overbought positions and a drop on the ATR volume as a whole. Games will be played and money will be made.
But you need to be careful buying at the wrong price.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Positive naz band Length Positive rise from may 2020, transitions from trump to Biden with new laws and restrictions, we should see a negative shelf in the near future. However it is a good test for Americans economic resilience. Any other ideas or opinions welcome !
Inauguration VolatilityList of factors that create uncertainty in the markets on Inauguration day.
- Trump is unpredictable and has taken the nuclear codes with him today.
- FCA issued many warnings regarding the Emergency Broadcasting System, any issues with communications could effect exchanges
- Potential for terrorist attacks at the capitol, false flag, BLM, ANTIFA, Q etc
- US navy warships are covering both coasts, why?
- Train loads of heavy weaponry (tanks etc) has entered DC that are not used for crowd control, why?
- The news cycle has already included one story of a US soldier planning a terrorist attack...
Move into stablecoin until 5.30 GMT. Place low buy orders for panic candles.
SPX IDEA - Short to Long before the BIG SHORTWhen trading the US market - we need to consider several factors, past performance, key events, more recently Covid and the change of the US President. All of which have a significant influence on the market and the world.
Professional investors are looking closely for signs of a bubble.
If you look at the timings and go back to our post a few weeks ago - long SPx (below) at the reversal level. You can see we are now in the zone mentioned.
Whilst looking at DXY - what looks like a likely scenario is a rise of DXY dropping SPx, then a rise drop of DXY pushing SPx back up to create a new high (likely) before giving a full drop causing the bubble to break. Now at the same time - think logic, Biden moves into office, the drop is fear & uncertainty. within weeks it's pushing all time highs and the world is excited. Which is the best time for the sharks to attack. When the world is high fiving and thinking the Bull run will go on forever.
Worth thinking about and if you look at Elliott waves, Fibonacci extensions, Order Blocks. You will notice a drop, a rise, and then a bigger drop makes sense for more than one reason.
We will see.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
The Look of Twitter since Permanently Suspending DJT's Account Since Twitter Permanently Suspended DJT's Account the company's stock value is down 18.23% on this news. That is almost half of the USA population that cannot be reached by their president, looks to be a bad financial move for the company moving into 2021.
Watching for Symmetric Triangle BreakoutMy past analysis posted 1/15 has been invalidated, as I had been way too hasty to accept a temporary trendline reclaim as a major technical development. In reality it broke back down, and I was forced to exit trade. But I am still bullish based on the fact that instead of a harsh drop to the 20k range as everyone has been predicting, BTCUSD has simply printed a triangle formation. This indicates strong buying+accumulation pressure - it seems to me that BTC is simply recharging and recoiling for a next leg up.
-Upside break would see continued price discovery. My first targets in this bullrun are $65,000 - $75,000 (see my past analysis if interested as to my methodology)
-Downside break will see a support at 30k, which is the trendline support for the beginning of this bull market before we went vertical. We could still see 20k-25k, who knows.
The best part about trading triangles is that we know a break in either direction is always soon - so we don't have to wait much longer!
Fundamentally - I see 2021 as a potentially strong year for BTC regardless of administrative direction in the US. If they pass more stimulus relief, inflationary concerns will rise PM+crypto. If they fail to get it passed, economic depression will continue and crypto will rise amidst those concerns as well. That is my personal view.
GOLD Falling Within A ChannelGOLD has seen some tough weather lately. I think the pain is far from over.
After producing a fake break out with a double top only two weeks of days ago, gold is falling again. It's to be expected that risk in the markets is going to decline with the inauguration of Biden soon, leading to a decrease in the demand for gold.
I've marked two areas of potential support on the chart, S1 and S2. S1 placed at the most recent low and S2 placed at $1700. Consider S2 a longer term target.
Happy trading!
The biggest triangle of the whole financial historyEveryone is waiting for the INAUGURATION OF BIDEN. Will this happen smoothly, or something else will happen?
Is Trump impeached peacefully?
Are the people (aboriginal) get the answer they want?
What going to happen?
Will those world richest and most cunning jump into the market as they repeated say bitcoins is shit?
Is the vaccine really okay??
This is the biggest, the open end of the triangle is 11,000 USD.
What other instrument will have this kind of wonder.
Are this already wonder of the world?
Something unusual?
Supper undecisive moment of the world. This is why it reflected as an triangle.
when market get too many unanswered questions as above...
VNOM BIDEN ClampOil Looking Good again under Biden Admin Regulations to drive price up. keep thing a bit tapered down. good for overall energy sector for now.. until.. he unleashes Iran back onto the market sending price back down..
well hoping he has more on his to do list then cozying up with our Enemy. maybe oil reaches 60. looking for pullback to MA then a move to hopefully break to 14.50.
EURUSD - Wyckoff schematic formingAs per the last Wyckoff posts on NZDUSD - the software we use to plot the Elliott waves show a drop from the top of leg 3 down to a 4 on the weekly timeframe.
This is further supported by the level of exhaustion seen on DXY. It now needs to breathe, looking at the structural setup of the Wyckoff schematics we can see that we have had the PSY followed by the BC which also happened within a daily order block level.
Usually, at highs and lows (exits from zones) we also expect to see a drop or rise from the zone and a retest up to the level. This is where EURUSD is currently in the daily structure.
Overall I am looking for the price to pop up a little and test the Imbalance and order blocks on lower TF's - that tags the OB level on the daily which is the retest. Then a drop down to give DXY strength and complete leg 4 of the EU weekly Elliott pattern.
This week COT data shows leveraged funds have added 3,500+ shorts to their Euro positions - although Long overall, it supports a drop to 4 and up to 5 in coming weeks. Oanda sentiment has a 61.8% net long Euro & as we all know 70%+ of retail traders lose money.
I have added our swing indicator, Quadratics and Stochastic falsebar - just to show the current situation on the Oscillators.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
SPX - S&P500 ,SP500Things are likely to give confusing messages today, with the addition of Tesla to the market. The overall momentum is Bullish, Tesla will most likely drive up the price further. However, the market needs to pullback to collect liquidity if nothing else. Remember whenever there are buyers, people need to be selling to them.
Be patient on any trade entry long or short as we could see some decent spikes between now and early in the New Year.
Stochastic on both the daily and weekly are overbought - worth noting.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
DXY - Weekly - Make or BreakWe have a higher chance of continuing lower with the bearish momentum on the $.
Though we have seen a nice rejection of this support and the momentum has slowed down.
Whether we see a continuation of the current trend or we break the trendline and go higher.
The fundamentals this month should aid this move whichever way it goes.
Interesting times folks.
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Reliable short-term support levelErnesto, come to see what happened — the jigger is broke cuz it's counting dawn the bucks. I think you have installed it wrong or somgh.
AUDUSD - LONG overall, short pullbackIf you take into account the Wall Street cycle we can see the main points in the market move. On a technical level we have a weekly Elliott 3 top forming looking for a pullback to point 4. This is supported by the DXY oversold level on it's stochastic.
COT data is showing a move toward short positions (not heavily) so again further support of the drop.
Extension levels show the regions 0.7600 and 0.7450 as areas of interest for the drop.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Reporting of the Reporting? (Jan 1st 2021)Not a metric one would hope keeps exploding upwards, but it will be interesting to see what the USA COVID-19 death reporting looks like over the next year now that 2020 is over with. Hopefully by summer we see these numbers flatten again, but I expect a new surge around August/September 2021 along with the changing of the seasons and weather. These conclusions should be pretty obvious to most.
Expected 2021 EOY USA Cases: 650,000 - 786,000 Deaths
Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, anyone in the trade needs to do their own due diligence and decide what is right for YOU. My charts can be wrong at any time and it's very important that you have your own strategies and plans in place. I run this channel for my own educational purposes of learning to trade, and I will never be 100% right, so please do not let me confirm any bias for you! (Dangerous to do so, stay safe and remember the basics & rules of risk assessment.) Expect the unexpected and happy trading!
