Trump vs Biden - Who Will Win? -Elliott Wave Applied Hey traders,
Elliott wave theory tracks sentiment that moves from optimism to pessimism. These are cycles that occur everywhere in our life not only on the markets. So EW theory its a tool that can be applied even to politics. I will look at EW cycles on US Presidential elections and wondering if we can see a surprise here or shift in trend.
What are your thoughts, who will win? Please leave an answer in the commentary below.
Take care,
GH
Trump
Sterling Pushing upside on Brexit, could extend deadline to JanSuggestion:
BUY GBPUSD 1.299-30 SL BELOW 1.2960 TGT 1.3090/3100
ELSE
SELL BELOW 1.2960 FOR 1.2895/2830 SL ABV 1.3030
EurUsd uncertain on Brexit uncertainity and rising Covid casesThe Euro remained under pressure and slipped to a one week low due to risk off trades. Dismal German ZEW economic sentiment data showed
that rising Covid cases and no deal Brexit fears were increasing uncertainty in the Eurozone
Suggestion: BUY EURUSD AT CMP 1.1755 SL BELOW 1.1720 TGT 1.1790-1800
ELSE
SELL BELOW 1.1700 TGT 1.1670 SL ABV 1.1730
Gold hovers around 1900, WHO concerns reg rising COVID casesGold price continue to trade in a narrow range hovering near the $1900 levels amidst a steady dollar, fading chances of a new U.S. fiscal stimulus
package being finalized before the November elections. US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said he and House of Representatives Speaker Nancy
Pelosi were "far apart" on another coronavirus economic relief package, that would be hard to reach before Nov 3 election, which is not a good
news for gold prices. IMF’s latest global growth forecast which sowed a contraction of -4.4% v/s - 5.2% in June also put pressure on gold prices. On
other hand, WHO has shown concerns regarding the rising Covid cases, in fact Europe have even decided to take certain measures to contain the spread of the virus, hence providing some support for the metal. Market participants will be keeping an eye on the weekly jobless claims data expected from the US which if reported better expectation could support the metal at lower levels.
Technically, Gold hovering around 1900 area with h4 ma50 at 1902 as a pivot and day ma50 at 1929 as resistance with support at 1882 yesterday low. Sustaining in asian session above 1902 could test again yesterday high 1912.94 a break can test the day ma50 at 1929 with a hurdle at 1920 meanwhile. Overall untill it stays above 1880 is a buy on dips strategy. For the day we advise buy on dips is advised.
Suggestion: BUY GOLD FROM 190001 SL BELW 1885 TGT 1916 AND 1920
ELSE
SELL BELOW 1885 TGT 1865 SL ABV 1903
A possible call opportunity for TRUMP2020Look at the chart, we can find the strong support line at 0.318. The market tried to break it but it cannot be broken. So it may be a buy signal as well. Our first target would be set at sma10 (0.409) and the stop loss would be 0.318.
Stop Loss: 0.318
Entry point: 0.348
Target: 0.409
Risk/Reward Ratio: 1.91
Anyway, it is only a bad joke and for fun only. Please be serious in your valuable vote. Wish all traders have a good profit today! =D
Also, see my analysis for the BIDEN-Avg-POLLS:
For the fun of it, with TView poll readingsTrump at fresh demand zone, Biden rejected at 2019 supply $SPY, $DXY, $TNX
Pound fell sharp as BoE Gov Bailey not seeing V shaped recoveryThe Bank of England asked banks on 12th October on how ready they are for zero or negative interest rates, following up its announcement last month that it was considering how to take rates below zero if necessary. The BOE set a deadline of Nov. 12 a week after its next monetary policy announcement for banks to respond. Money Markets are expecting BOE's next move to be an increase in the 745 billion Pound bond buying program in November.
Technically, GBPUSD came out fom upward rising channel in 4hr with a break of channel support at 1.2960 or 50ma heading towards 1.2845-50 Oct 10th low. A break upside 50ma again can rise towards 1.2980 or 200ma and 1.3082 Oct 12th high. As we see a small retrace to the todays pivot point at 1.2955-60 would be a selling zone freshly for downside said targets. Overall sell on rise is advised for the day.
Suggestion: SELL GBPUSD FROM 1.2950-60 SL ABV 1.3030 TGT 1.2880/2830
ELSE
BUY GBPUSD FROM 1.3030 FOR 1.3120 WITH SL BELOW 1.2950
S&P 500 EEUU 500Hello good morning I hope you’re right.
A few days ago I published this idea to you, to this day it is the same I have only modified trend and lines by market movement. In the comments, in the 2 comments that our brokers commented that it would follow the second trend, The fall BEARISH .
We believe that in the short term you will see high volatility whit corrections... but in the middle term we’re BULLISH and in the long run we’ lo see. LEAVE YOUR OPINION In the comments 1 or 2, and how they are positioned in short, medium up to elections, and long.
Sincerely L.E.D
In Spain at 13/10/2020
SPY TESTING ATH? Will Earnings Push Us Over? Market Breakdown“There are enough trends out there, established by Covid, that just say, ‘Get long,’” CNBC’s Jim Cramer said on Monday.
The “Mad Money” host said that strength in the tech sector is likely to support the market, regardless of the election outcome.
“I think there’s a genuine belief that it doesn’t matter who wins. It doesn’t matter about stimulus,” said Cramer.
-
$SPY confirmed it's bullish trend on the daily after it broke and closed above $333. I talked about this setup on Monday, 9/28/20.
Few things to watch as we move forward:
RGEN - Regeneron CEO cautions Trump’s results are ‘a case of one,’ and coronavirus drug needs more testing
President Trumps Health - White House physician says Trump has tested negative for Covid, is no longer infectious.
SPY levels - After the gap up we saw back on Sep 28 (first signal of bullish trend). Easy Loot going into earnings season
Sterling finished on high against US dollarSterling finished the European session on a high note against the US dollar on Monday, despite UK PM Boris Johnson announcing new restrictions in order to help curb the surge in coronavirus cases.
Technically, the H4 timeframe tested an interesting area of resistance between 1.31/1.3064 , composed of the 1.31 handle, resistance from 1.3064, August’s opening value at 1.3078 and channel resistance, drawn from the high 1.2929.In terms of resistance, price has room to advance as far north as the 2020 yearly opening value at 1.3250. What’s more, the daily timeframe is seen making headway north of resistance at 1.3017, with eyes on resistance at 1.3200.Clearance of 1.31 on the H4, as a result of the above, might have breakout buyers make an appearance, targeting the 1.32 handle, which also represents daily resistance.
Suggestion: BUY GBPUSD AT CMP 1.3045 ADD TILL 3030 FOR TGT 1.3095/3130 SL BELOW 1.2970
ELSE
SELL BELOW 1.2970 TGT 1.2940/2920 SL 1.3030
Gold remained steady near its three week peakGold remained steady near its three week peak on Monday as the dollar recovered some ground but the prospects of more US Coronavirus relief spending and uncertainty around next month’s presidential election put a floor under prices. The Trump administration called on Congress to pass
a stripped -down Coronavirus relief bill using leftover funds, as negotiations on a broader package stalled ahead of the November 3 presidential election.
Technically, Gold hovering on a support zone 1900-1920 with pivot at 1911 and support at ma50 (h4) at 1904. Upside resistance lies at 1922. For the day we advise to stay on buy on dips for upside ma200 as an initial target., a break above and settle scan rise sharply till 1936 or d ma50. A break that says a chart channel resistance breaks can leads to directly 1984-1995 initial resistance zone. Overall buy on dips is advised for the day.
Suggestion: BUY GOLD FROM 1910-11 SL BELOW 1895 TGT 1920-25 ELSE SELL BELOW 1895 TGT 1880/1875 SL ABV 1915
BTCUSD Correlation Coefficient 200D with USBIDEN/USTRUMPBTCUSD Correlation Coefficient 200D with USBIDEN / USTRUMP
I see no correlation.
Dowjones US30 next target will be 29200market have Potential to grow till 29200 and if break this level clearly we will see good targets
good luck guys
ETH On That BuLLish Run?It appears institutional money has suede the market in this potential breakout from this downward trend from early Sept. Twitters CEO, Jack Dorsey bagged $50M of bitcoin, which gave the crypto market some nice price action to the upside, but it seems that was only the match that started the fire within this bullish run. It was Trump who poured gasoline on this fire by pushing forward with much need stimulus to airlines. This should be a good sign more stimulus is to come. Therefore, ETH’s 9EMA has just crossed the 200EMA, which is a strong move that means there should be some continuation to the upside.
Cheers!
US500 S&P500 We will see 1 or 2.
Let me know in the comments, ...............................
Greetings L.E.D
In Spain on 10/10/2020
#GBPJPY A BREAK BELOW 136.800 UNDERWAY?HELLO TRADERS,
HERE'S OUR VEIW ON GBPJPY WITH A 1:3 R/R FOR THE DAY. PRICE HAD TESTED THE 137.400/600 ZONE BUT FAILED TO HOLD
AS LONG AS PRICE IS BELOW THAT ZONE, WE ARE SHORT!
OANDA:GBPJPY
THE TRADING REGIME.
#USDCAD UPDATE...BULLISH VIEWS ? HELLO TRADERS,
HERE'S A QUICK UPDATE ON USDCAD. WE SAW A PRICE CORRECTION
YESTERDAY TO THE 1.31500 SUPPORT AREA AND NOW PRICE LOOKING
TO MAKE AN UPSIDE CORRECTION. WE HOLD FOR 1.32555 OR MORE!
OANDA:USDCAD
THE TRADING REGIME.
SPHealth 2 Week Comparisons (Oct 7-20 2020)SPHealth - Growth Analysis & Comparison - Cindicator Poll Submission (October 7th - 20th 2020)
I've been looking through my Cindicator questions, making forecasts and watching markets as new polls pop up. Here's a comparison chart for 5 major S&P health companies and my rankings forecast.
(Descending order from most growth to least)
United Health Group Inc (UNH)
Abbott Labs (ABT)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
Merck & Co. (MRK)
This forecast will be explicitly graded by total growth % comparisons of opening prices on October 7th to closing prices on October 20th across the 5 aforementioned companies.
As of right now before 10-9-20 daily market open, the percentage growth is as follows:
UNH +1.9%
PFE +1.87%
JNJ +1.56%
ABT +1.1%
MRK +0.54%
When looking at a specific metric within the already completed duration since I submitted my forecast, overall recent growth is:
UNH +2.82%
PFE +2.66%
JNJ +2.24%
MRK +2.22%
ABT +1.62%
10-9-20 Forecast Adjustments:
Now that I have seen the last 2 days play out, I'm starting to notice a couple things about my forecast and actual live value.
I'm confident that United Health will still outperform, but this outlook could change if any major market sell off occurs before the 20th. Pfizer looks like it could be a strong runner up, and I may have flubbed my original forecast by ranking it 4th in growth. Johnson & Johnson is performing approximately as expected. Merck and Abbott Labs could be tricky to pinpoint exactly without some further research and analysis but, I'm guessing that Abbott may come in 4th place if everything settles after any quick rallies that should happen. If a light pump in Merck occurs over the 19th-20th, then there could be a small chance it outperforms Abbott for 4th but it feels like an unlikely scenario.
After these deliberations, I've decided my forecast doesn't need much adjusting other than to swap the placement of Pfizer and Abbott. My updated forecast is as follows:
United Health Group Inc (UNH)
Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Abbott Labs (ABT)
Merck & Co. (MRK)
One thing to note is that I believe TradingView is not calculating its percentage scale correctly, its placing the 0% Y axis at the close value of the first candle used to calculate growth. So this graph is really just more for me to check my own work by hand, as the percentages on the left will not accurately portray what is actually being graded by Cindicator.
I'll check back in after the 20th to see how this turned out!
Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, I am not responsible for any losses incurred while attempting to use my data, I hope this can prove to be some sort of learning tool for some and give insight as to how I personally come up with my own numbers. Take into full consideration this could be a completely bad forecast. Cheers
WTI rose on support from output shutdowns ahead of storm in USCrude prices edged higher, touching levels of $43 on support from output shutdowns ahead of a storm in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and prospect of supply losses in Norway along with hopes for some U.S. COVID relief aid supported prices. Prices got supported after reports of Saudi Arabia considering reversing course over OPEC’s planned production increase early next year which is definitely a positive for the markets.
Optimism over additional fiscal support in U.S. resurfaced, but the back and forth between policymakers could see volatility linger for a while yet. For Norway, Oil firms and labor officials might meet with a state-appointed mediator today in an attempt both sides hope will bring an end to a
strike that threatens to cut Norway’s output by some 25%. On Hurricane front, Oil workers have withdrawn from U.S. Gulf production facilities as Hurricane Delta was forecast to intensify into a powerful, Category 3 storm. Nearly 1.5 Mbpd of daily output was halted and forecast indicates that
markets can lose almost 5MB in this storm, supporting prices. The crude oil supply events along with positive talks for Stimulus will keep prices supported for coming session.
Suggestion: BUY WTI OIL FROM 40.55-60 SL BELOW 40 TGT 42 ELSE SELL BELOW 39.50 TGT 38.70 SL ABV 40.60
Sterling ahead of 1.3015, level which should mindful again::Thursday, as can be seen from the H4 chart, retested the 1.29/channel support (1.2805) combination and held firm, printing a close back above October’s opening value at 1.2925. This has potentially transferred energy back towards the key figure 1.30 ( surrounded by H4 resistance at 1.3009 and daily resistance at 1.3017).017/1.30 resistance (red area on the H4) remains a zone to be mindful of. The break back above October’s opening value at 1.2925 is likely to spark intraday bullish scenarios to 1.30. Violating 1.29 and channel support (H4), extended from the low 1.2805, would help confirm bearish strength south of daily resistance at 1.3017 and may see H4 hone in on 1.28, which happens to merge closely with daily trend line support coming in from the low 1.2075.
Gold bottomed out post Trump asked Nancy to review stimulus billGold prices edged higher in the early morning session, supported by a weaker dollar and optimism over a new U.S. coronavirus relief aid after resident Donald Trump said talks with Congress have restarted. Giving a contrary statement as compared to few days back, President Trump said there was a good chance a deal over COVID-19 relief could be reached, but gave no other details about a possible agreement. Market participants today will focus on the policy meet scheduled on the domestic front and expectation is that the central bank could maintain rates unchanged but importantly investors will be keeping an eye on the stance that RBI adopts for inflation. Gold-backed exchange traded funds added more than 1,000 tonnes of bullion worth $60 billion at current prices to their stockpile in the first nine months of 2020, driving a sizzling price rally, according to World Gold Council (WGC).
Technical: Gold trading at 1910 in asian session rose about 0.85% from the recent low 1872. H4 perceptive, we observed head and shoulders pattern where the break is needed above 1916 for the same to rise till 2000 as per pattern calculation, with a hurdle at 1922 or 200ma. Trading above 1900 is the one where one can make every dip as a buy on every dip till it holds above. Downside a break below recent low 1871 can test the 1845 which is daily support. For the day perceptive one can wait for the drop till 1900-04 zone for fresh buys witha 1902 as day support and 1893 as a pivot which tested already. Overall buy on dips is advised for the day.
Suggestion: BUY GOLD FROM 1902-04 L BELOW 1885 TGT 1922 ELSE SELL BELOW 1885 TGT 1871/1865 SL ABV 1905
RidetheMacro| DXY Dollar Index Time to get some strength !Trade Analysis based on Fundamentals and on Price Action;
With Risk Management You will Never Loss.
Best reagrds;
Ridethemacro
