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SPY: A Trump & Biden ElectionI think the market is smart. We need to read its psychology. I received countless texts, calls and DM's about this election year and the potential results. Well its tough. I have many friends on both sides of the spectrum and some of Biden's and even California's tax plans is really important to understand. While it would potentially take years and months to implement and Republicans are anticipated to control Congress and a decent control in the Supreme Court. This is important in providing the Check's & Balances in our Primarily Two Party System. (I see you Green & Libertarian Party). Thus far we are in a consolidation phase. It is hard to call this pattern a rising wedge...which often leads to a bear reversal. Is that something we are going to see under Biden? Or do we predict one final big run in the market and if Biden win's we can potentially see huge sell off's prior to the execution of his tax plan. Its a big WHAT if scenario. I will be very honest and say I am not to sure about who is going to win. Biden looks to have the advantage with the various votes coming in at the last minute. I'll leave conspiracies and my personal political values on the sideline. Chart Wise: We set two Lower Highs. Two Higher Lows. Consolidation theory makes sense considering the election year. IF we want to hit a big final push into HH...which seems a bit insane in this market, but potentially possible if Trump wins. The amount of people who have sat sidelines cash and waiting for a Orange Hair win is quite large. I know real estate developers and investors who told me if Trump wins they will go full steam ahead in their developments and acquisitions. So can this be a big driver for people who have money? Maybe. I also heard of many saying they will pull out of the market if Biden wins and slowly decrease their ownership of stock to preserve portions of their wealth. What is MOST important during this time is to BUY LOW & SELL HIGH. Be patient. Try not to touch anything at ATH's. The best posture is a defensive one. That being said I opened position around the time of the second lower high. It was a easy trade that benefitted me greatly in the last two days. So if you are willing to take a little risk try and enter as close to the bottom of the symmetrical triangle. Again, these are all my personal opinions and not professional advice. Do your own due diligence and trust your own gut. If you have any other perspectives please let me know! I would like to continue to educate myself and see how other trades think and perceive the markets. Thanks again. Stay safe & Happy Hunting! Reg.
AMEX:SPYLong
by regalia
3
Post-election breakdown of DOLLAR-YEN[Target 100]A short post, with few important points: With record low interest rates globally, the carry trade with the short-side in yen is somewhat losing its popularity. Some of the reasons why are: => The carry premium isn't worth the risk any longer. Lately currency markets have been quite volatile, question is whether this will continue. If we get a somewhat more stable environment in developed markets, carry sharks might look elsewhere for the following reasons... => Record low rates globally, even further squeezing the positive carry spread, however now that all the key rates globally are at the ZLB (prospects even to go below it), the importance of inflation is ever more accentuated. Why'd you even enter a long carry with a short side in yen given the inflation differential, with Japan potentially going into a deflationary environment? => Lastly, we're in a new paradigm where it's questionable how long would it take for emerging markets to recover from the virus, and the grading of their government bonds is starting to become questionable. There are other points of course, but principally Biden after all might get a weaker dollar after all, thanks to MMT. On one side, too little stimulus implies a potential credit crunch/crisis, and too much stimulus= devaluation. Obviously, devaluation is without any doubts the better choice. The rest is summarized by the chart. -Step_ahead_ofthemarket ________________________________________________________________________________________ >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well-informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details , every thumbs up and follow is greatly appreciated! Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content- contact me through any of my social media channels.
Short
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
ES Potential Idea (Nov 8th - Nov 19th 2020)E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES) (November 8th 2020 through November 19th 2020) Low: 2531 points High: 3590 points This may be too drastic to happen, or to happen right away. No chance? I understand the longer I keep talking about a market crash that hasn't happened (yet) the sillier I look. If something major doesn't happen this month, are we still on track to have something happen come January 2021? February-March? The amount of greed in the average consumers right now, election and Trump vote claims, etc, all lead me to believe we are at some sort of stressing point, the load gets heavier and heavier and something will snap and flash soon. As always, I'll be looking to the news for some clues for the next few weeks. I could be completely wrong here, I just feel like something is building up soon. Watch the US election drama closely throughout the next few months. The related ideas for this chart are a collection of different scenarios, all with somewhat similar outcomes across major stock indexes. Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, anyone in the trade needs to do their own due diligence and decide what is right for YOU. My charts can be wrong at any time and it's very important that you have your own strategies and plans in place. I run this channel for my own educational purposes of learning to trade, and I will never be 100% right, so please do not let me confirm any bias for you! (Dangerous to do so, stay safe and remember the basics & rules of risk assessment.) Expect the unexpected and happy trading!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Hambooger
Biden Market. $SPY Examining the weeks ahead. The Market is at a pivotal moment where we could see significant downside, or possible upside. Ill be waiting to see how the market reacts to the election when futures open up Sunday night. At the moment we are up against a large resistance on the daily and if rejected due to a news type catalyst, hold on to your ass cause we are gonna find suport and quick, but I am a hopeful bull right now but always ready to play the downside.
AMEX:SPYLong
by SimpleStacks
The Most Important Levels for BTC/USD After The ElectionsThe elections in the USA have a strong effect on the price. After seeing the huge surge in the price of gold we also see the major increase in price of BTC. In just three days, the price has increased by 20%. The dominance of BTC is increasing as well, and alts are bleeding. This behavior is common when BTC is growing a lot in a short period of time. But there is hope, on several earlier occasions such a surge in BTC and BTC Dominance has led to a temporary alt season. When BTC consolidates and the market cap flows back into alts we will see many interesting trading opportunities arise. I will make sure to report on them whenever I see such opportunities on this account. For BTC itself however, we will struggle to do any technical analysis on shorter timeframes as the price is moving into new territories. In the chart above I show how to look at horizontal zones in order to find help in charting the current price. Other alternatives for charting such large moves is by using Fibonacci retracements. In today's analysis however I will focus only on horizontal levels. It's interesting to see that we see the most important levels around the $13,000 mark, the $14,000 mark, the $15,000 mark and the $16,000 mark. I highlighted two zones explicitly in red, because they are EXACTLY at the psychological levels of $16,000 and $14,000. I consider those extra powerful. The other levels have been created using the S/R flip principle. The key idea being that horizontal levels can stay important even after they have been broken. All further info about these levels can be found on the chart. For trades I suggest to keep an eye on the $16,000 and the $15,000 levels. More specifically I suggest to get a short trade in as the price has been ridiculously high recently. A short from the ~16,000 to the ~15,000 would be my first recommendation. Follow me for consistent high quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Trading-Guru
12
Weekly Recap; Nothing has changedDoing this little recap because I've already seen plenty of outlandish remarks on Twitter about the election and how the markets are overvalued and what not So, as we all know the election results are being prolonged, Trump is whining, and the markets are up 9% over 5 days. Many believe this is overextended and that the markets will eventually simmer down once Biden actually does take office (lets be honest, he probably will). Let's analyze this week and market sentiment. Why have the markets rallied 9% and is this overextended? In short, this is not overextended and the markets will probably continue to climb. Behavioural finance will help explain this. The markets have not actually rallied or overextended on a technical basis, they have instead reconnected to primary/secondary trends after a major sell off. Smart money can help explain the sell off, that is, they knew prices would go down so they sold and jumped back in once the markets bottomed on Friday/Monday (I did too). Seen on the graph we have this trading range between the 2 orange lines, considering there hasn't been a breakout I'd say what happened in the markets this week is perfectly normal. Let's not forget all that cheap money too... Next, lets look at the rationale and what "Wall Street" was actually focusing on: Over the month nothing has changed, and I mean this is the most literal sense, nothing. Fundamentally some stocks surprised on earnings and jumped, and other not so well and fell; this is perfectly normal. Putting these exceptions aside why did the market jump 9% then? Why was the uncertain election perceived so well? An election went by, and yes, we will have a winner. However, the most important take aways are as follows: - Republican senate (say bye bye to Bidens tax hikes and other left-leaning policies) - Trump and Biden economic policies don't defer (there isn't any notable differences) - Economic data is pointing towards recovery Apart from the first 2 points (and maybe the 3rd as icing on the cake) everything else is noise. Covid will be cured, a president will be elected, taxes wont increase...etc. As you can see the clear pattern here: NOTHING HAS OR WILL CHANGE That's pretty much it, we saw a pre-election sell off, then a rally. What's clear here is that Biden won't be as bad on the economy and market as people actually think, in my opinion I think Biden will actually do more good than bad for the economy. With Trump out of office I'm expecting an increase in foreign investment, influx of foreign cash, and *maybe* a first mover advantage in the renewable energy and marijuana industries. Remember: What distinguishes a beginner from an expert is that an expert knows what to ignore. For those who care, i'm up 33% since Monday because I stuck to my guns
TVC:SPX
by RaftoO