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Recovery in Trump health supporting Crude pricesLast week, WTI Crude prices ended lower by 8 percent as worries over second wave of the covid-19 virus clouded the demand prospects for Crude. Resurgence of the covid-19 virus is a major setback for the already shackled Oil market. Alarming increase in Covid-19 cases raised worries over reinforcement of lockdown in major economies which undermined the outlook for Crude. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is also reluctant to increase Oil production from January 2021 in an attempt to counter the weak demand. Moreover, rising exports from Libya and Iran despite the production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting (OPEC) also weighed on the prices. However, hopes of further stimulus infusion by the U.S. as the democrats and the white house officials work on striking a deal limited the fall in Crude prices. Recovery in President Donald Trump’s health after being tested positive might support Oil prices; however, bleak economic outlook reflecting the resurgence of covid-19 virus undermined the outlook for Crude. Suggestion: BUY CRUDE FROM 37.65-60 SL BELOW 36.20 TGT 39/39.40 ELSE SELL BELOW 36 SL ABV 37.70 TGT 34.50/34
TVC:USOILLong
by OfficialYaMarkets
Gold trading lower on Trump health uncertainityBullion is seen attempting to regain some status above support at $1,882, despite leaving behind channel resistance-turned support, etched from the high $1,703. If buyers maintain a dominant position north of $1,882 this week, are traders likely to seek all-time peaks at $2,075? Upside momentum subsided heading into Wednesday’s session, and continued to establish deep retracements before finally testing resistance at $1,916 on Friday. Note price sold off from here into the close, underlining the possibility of reaching for support at $1,871 sometime this week.Given H4 demand to the left of price appears mostly consumed and daily price recently tested resistance at $1,911, cruising back to H4 support at $1,871 this week is possible. On the flip side, a H4 close above $1,916 may call for H4 resistance at $1,941, in line with weekly price holding above support at $1,882. Suggestion: BUY GOLD FROM 1888-85 SL BELOW 1874 TGT 1900-1905 ELSE SELL BELOW 1875 SL ABV 1905 TGT 1845
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by OfficialYaMarkets
Pound facing stiff resistance, sideways persistsGDP data from UK came in at -19.8 percent against market expectations of -20.4 percent. The latest round of discussions began on Tuesday and reports indicate that negotiators will begin the process to finalize a deal as soon as possible. Prime Minister Boris johnson is considering slapping additional restrictions to curb COVID-19, especially in northern England. The rising number of cases and economic hardship are now joined by political issues. Technically, 1.29 handle on the H4 timeframe ended the week battered and bruised, encountering a number of whipsaws. Technicians will also observe an ascending channel in play between 1.2806/1.2927. Friday, as you can see, retested the round number as support and held a few pips north of October’s opening value at 1.2925 into the close. Resistance can be seen around the key figure 1.30, closely shadowed by H4 resistance at 1.3009 and daily resistance at 1.3017. Suggestion: SELL GBPUSD AT CMP 1.2905-10 SL ABV 1.2980 TGT 1.2820/2800 ELSE BUY ABOVE 1.2980 TGT 1.3020/3090 SL BELOW 1.2880
Short
by OfficialYaMarkets
1
RidetheMacro|Natural Gas Analysis Winter is Coming.📌 Natural Gas Key points Fundamentally, the weather is not expected to be a big help this week, but traders are likely to be more interested in liquefied natural gas anyway. At this time, the demand picture is unclear, which could be bearish for the November futures contract, but at some time in the near future, the outlook for increased demand could provide the support for the December futures contract. “While the weather picture isn’t great for bulls, contracts beyond November are at a growing risk for a snap back higher,” Bespoke said. “It’s just a matter of when the market decides to let the November contract completely disconnect from the rest of the curve, the timing of which is difficult to pinpoint. But Can Expect the targets of 3.0xx-3.5xx 🎯. Until The Next time. RideTheMacro
NLong
by Ridethemacro
Gold Price Analysis after Trump contracts coronavirus The world is in shock after President Donald Trump tweeted that he tested positive for coronavirus. Stocks markets fell, and gold finally broke free of the correlation with equities and advanced above $1,900. The bombshell development continues grabbing the headlines and casts questions about fiscal stimulus, the elections, and other topics. As investors continue watching the latest developments, how is the precious metal positioned? Looking up, gold faces its first noteworthy cluster of resistance at $1,910, which is the meeting point of the Bollinger Band 4h-Upper, the previous daily high, the BB 15min-Upper, and other lines. The upside target is $1,928, which is the confluence of the Pivot Point one-day Resistance 2 and the PP one-week R1.
TVC:GOLD
by Ridethemacro
2
I KNOW WE POSTED A LONG BUT!!!I know we posted a long. On here. Free channel milked the long then took a short. Closed for Friday NFP. Looking now we have potentially a short position coming up. Trump got covid, but shared he is doing well, so reduces the chance of uncertainty which then some fundamentals point towards gold going down just like the charts. Remember just because we post something here. Does not mean we are taking the trade. The market can change very quickly. So we can be long 1 min then short the next. x
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FreeForexSignals
18
NZDCAD - Target 0.87000 Patience will get you paidPatience on this one but stay woke. The longer this one moves sideways the sharper the breakout. I am looking fro NZD to tap into may turquoise zone, alot of wicks in this area and with not be done with the manipulation with lots of traders hold from the wicky zone. Ill be looking for the stop loss hunt entry which is on a 61.80% fib level , allowing me to get a greater R:R ratio. EMA is still being respected too by the candles. Patience on this one but I do have a bearish bias.
Short
by Travis_duncz
2
DJI: Trump's Covid-19 Case - A Historical ComparisonIn this analysis I'll be shedding light on my own theory on: - How President Trump's Covid-19 Positive news may impact the market - Similarities and differences in historic cases - Why Trump possibly announced his testing positive so quickly Trump's Testing Positive - Trump testing positive for Covid-19, 4 weeks before the presidential elections, is not good news - Especially considering that the current market is momentum driven, such bad news is good enough to scare new investors from pouring money into the market We can see a similar case where the president's medical condition negatively impacted the market Historic case - President Eisenhower suffered a heart attack in September 25, 1955. - Before this incident, the stock market was at an unprecedented bullish rally - Immediately after news was released that he was hospitalized, the market fell by 6%, leading to $14 billion instantly vanishing - Eisenhower recovered, and it was later announced that his condition was not serious - Eventually, the market bounced, and continued to rally upwards - President Trump also announced his testing positive for Covid-19 a few hours ago - Just as Eisenhower's case, the stock market is in an uptrend, with significant bullish momentum - The market is correcting, due to bad news, but not as significantly as that of the past - Just as Eisenhower, considering the fact that Trump will be taken care of seriously, it's most likely that he will recover from the virus - As such, it's reasonable to expect that the market will continue to rally upwards - However, it's also important to consider that market situations are not the same as the past - For more in-depth explanation on what makes today's market special, check out my previous analysis below: Why did Trump announce his condition? - This is an important question to ask, as Trump announced his testing positive for Covid via twitter - Trump is arguably the most powerful person in the world. He could have concealed his condition if he really wanted to, and later justify it as "classified information" - What could have been Trump's intentions behind this? - In the case of the Prime Minister of the UK, Boris Johnson, his support rate was at 48% prior to him testing positive - After he got the virus, there was a sentiment of sympathy among the general public, leading to his support rate skyrocketing to 72%, an all time high support rate ever since Tony Blair - Given this case, and the fact that the presidential elections will be held in 4 weeks, Trump could have been targeting this sympathetic sentiment among the general public - It's also highly likely that Trump recovers quickly, with the best medical staff from the country treating him - As such, he will be qualified to talk about the issue (as someone who has caught the virus), and suggest that he's the only one capable of solving the problem. Conclusion As past cases demonstrate, problems regarding the President's medical condition is never good for the market. However, given that the president recovers quickly, this could end up being a 'buy the dip' opportunity. If you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight.
TVC:DJIEducation
by Michael_Wang_Official
79
FX Update: Trump has Covid-19 and first move is risk-offSummary: The US dollar and Japanese yen knee-jerked stronger on the news in early European hours that US President Trump and the First Lady have tested positive for Covid-19 after traveling with a sick aide in recent days. The implications of this news could turn in very different directions for markets from here depending on how serious Trump reacts to the virus. Trading focus: Tactical uncertainty on Trump Covid-19 positive test The first instinct when any bombshell hits the market that increases uncertainty is to head to the hills. Somewhat surprisingly, the market tone managed to stay positive despite lack of progress on new stimulus measures in the US (more on that below) and even after it was clear that Trump had been heavily exposed to the virus in recent days when it turns out an aide traveling with him to campaign events tested positive yesterday. But the situation can quickly go in very different directions from here Mild case – Trump gets a light sniffle and is battle ready after a week to ten days. Not only would the net effect be negligible on Trump’s health, but could also provide him with ammunition in his claims that most people – even a relatively older man like himself – don’t get severe systems and that his opponents have been wrong to so strongly criticize his handling of the virus. Severe case – Trump is sideline with a severe case of the virus for two weeks or more. Anything resembling a case as sever as UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s case back in the spring (16 days from announcement of a positive test until he was released from hospital) could underline the severity of the virus and keep Trump’s schedule reduced and his energy low and maybe enhance the credibility of criticisms of his administrations’ handling of the virus and change the mind of some small cross-section of voters. For now the market is taking this situation as driving a shift in favour of Biden, with the USD positive reaction on the tail of that showing that risk sentiment swings seem more important for driving the US dollar at the moment than any thoughts about the budget deficit outlook and risk to inflation down the road from higher Democrat spending levels (only in the event Dems get the Senate back, of course). Remember the US stimulus question – the more important factor here if Trump’s Covid-19 proves a mere distraction. The House Democrats passed a $2.2 trillion bill for new stimulus by a relative narrow margin and with zero Republican votes. This is smaller than their original stimulus package of well over $3 trillion, but their moving forward with this deal is seen by some as providing little hope that the Trump White House is ready to make a deal, with a possibly side-lined Trump adding to the risk of no-deal at the margin. No stimulus is risk sentiment negative and therefore generally USD positive, given recent patterns. A breakthrough is still a possibility over the weekend, with House Speaker Pelosi set to meet US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin at the weekend. Brexit – spot trading is dangerous business – options an idea. If it wasn’t already obvious, yesterday’s price action in sterling underlined the risk of trying to express a tactical view in sterling via spot trades, as conflicting headlines on the state of post-Brexit sterling all over the map. Positioning in options is an idea for those who would like to have a position over the next critical few weeks of the negotiation period and even for beyond December 31 for anyone believing that the talks will go to the wire. A long strangle position in either EURGBP or GBPUSD (long both an out of the money put and call) are a way to trade volatility with no idea of the directional view, and those with directional views can consider taking a long position in either a put or a call or a put spread or call spread. An option spread (long one option and short another option that is much farther out of the money reduces the extent of the directional move needed to break even but reduces also the maximum potential profit if volatility spikes significantly. In an escalation of the stakes of the negotiations, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to meet EU Commission president Ursula Von Der Leyen tomorrow. Chart: AUDJPY AUDJPY is a classic proxy within G10 currencies for risk appetite and found resistance – as did many USD pairs – right at important resistance, in this case, the head-and-shoulders-like neckline around 0.7600 and just ahead of the21-day and 55-day moving averages. Arguably, this is a kind of bull-bear line, as is the 0.7200 area in AUDUSD – for risk sentiment in FX at the moment. Stay tuned – hard to believe that traders would want to get aggressively risk-on ahead of the weekend as we await more news on Trump’s condition. Oops – what happened in commodities yesterday? Watching commodity FX The commodity complex had an interesting session yesterday, with oil prices dragged lower still and perched on the precipice of major support. The oil demand picture is looking tenuous as some major European cities from Madrid to London to Paris may be on the verge of new lock-downs and the case count in the US has failed to continue falling. Weak commodity prices are a hitch in the reflationary narrative and are worth watching, not only for petro-currencies, but any commodity-linked currency like AUD and others. The copper price in particular suffered a massive drop yesterday. Still, it is interesting to see that EURNOK has pushed significantly back lower this morning despite both the risk-off and weak oil prices – a strong showing for the krone. John Hardy Head of FX Strategy Disclaimer The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. 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by Saxo
12