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Wait to scale-in at the edge of box of 4H chartTrump is lenient towards cryptocurrencies, and recently, due to Trump, there has been a significant surge, including Bitcoin. The daily chart seems to indicate a rebound for several more days. The 4-hour chart shows a consolidation within a range, with a high probability of a future upward breakout. The entry point could be at the bottom of the range if it breaks the support, or upon breaking through the top resistance of the range.
PEPPERSTONE:ETHUSDLong
by Quant_David
Bitcoin Surges after Donald Trump Assassination AttemptMarket Update - July 19, 2024 Bitcoin Rallied Amid Renewed Volatility Linked to Trump's Election Prospects Mt. Gox Moves SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:9B in Bitcoin Ahead of Creditor Repayments Investors Hedge Positions as US Spot ETH ETFs Near Launch Coinbase Shifts Strategy for Gary Gensler Subpoena Hong Kong to Release Stablecoin Consultation Results Bitcoin Rallied Amid Renewed Volatility Linked to Trump's Election Prospects Following an attempt on the life of Donald Trump on Saturday, crypto assets linked to the US Republican candidate’s chances of winning the November 4 election experienced increased volatility. Bitcoin surged by around 7% as the candidate's probability of winning rose to 70% on popular prediction market Polymarket. After the event, Bitcoin broke above the crucial 200-day simple moving average (SMA), indicating a positive long-term trend. Additionally, Trump-themed Polifi tokens also surged on news of the attack. Recently, Trump has embraced crypto and been pictured with various high-profile figures, seeking a comparatively friendlier regulatory environment than the one President Biden has overseen. Consequently, some have viewed Bitcoin and the broader crypto market as bets on Trump's victory. Trump’s selection of JD Vance as his vice presidential candidate was also seen as a positive choice for crypto. A former venture capitalist, the Ohio Republican has been supportive of the crypto industry and criticized the SEC for what he perceives to be regulatory overreach. Last year, Vance, along with other Republican lawmakers, sent a letter to SEC Chair Gary Gensler expressing concerns about its lawsuit against crypto company DEBT Box. Vance is also believed to personally hold more than $100k worth of bitcoin. ⛏️ Topic of the Week: How to Mine Crypto ➡️ Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
2
EUR/USD: Biden Replacement and ECB Decision Loom Political uncertainty in the U.S. could significantly impact the EUR/USD as markets brace for tomorrow’s ECB decision. The major political factor may not if President Biden steps down, but who steps up to take his place. Who will the markets like and who will they dislike? This could play out in the EUR/USD. Biden has said he will reevaluate his candidacy if advised by doctors due to health concerns, possibly setting the stage for his withdrawal from the presidential race. Notably, Democratic Representative Adam Schiff (California) is the latest major figure to urge Biden to step aside as the Democratic nominee for president. Turning to the more traditional economic event, ING forecasts that the EUR/USD is more likely to hit 1.08 rather than 1.10 following tomorrow’s ECB meeting. The tip of the very clean and tight channel the pair has traveled in since June might suggest resistance at 1.0965. The European Central Bank is expected to maintain rates steady, a month after its first rate cut in five years. A recent Reuters poll revealed analysts anticipate two additional 0.25 percentage point rate cuts this year, slated for September and December.
by BlackBull_Markets
1
Wait... Bitcoin handle of a CUP??? All new @TradingView tool which auto-detects the Cup & Handle Pattern. So on the weekly time frame.... See for yourself! I often post educational content and share info on the latest indicators and tools. Here on Tradingview, we can see this form on the weekly with an upside target to around $127,000. You heard it here first ;-) Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe. (Definitely don't take this as advice)
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Mayfair_Ventures
27
Trump, Fed Speculation Drive Gold to New Heights Trump, Fed Speculation Drive Gold to New Heights Gold price cleared the May 20 high of $2450 on Tuesday, as expectations intensify that the U.S. Federal Reserve will commence an easing cycle in September. Fed Chair Jerome Powell addressed the Economic Club of Washington this week, noting the economy's solid performance and signaling potential rate cuts once inflation trends towards the 2% target. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates near-certain odds of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, with many forecasting a total of 50 basis points in cuts through 2024. But one has to question the accuracy of these optimistic predictions. The next FOMC meeting is in 14 days. Adding to the upward momentum on gold is the potential election of former President Donald Trump in November. Trump's proposed policies, including tariff hikes and tax cuts, are anticipated to increase the U.S. budget deficit and spur inflationary pressures. Bullish momentum in gold appears intact, supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart. Although it is trending higher and approaching typical overbought conditions.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
DXY: Deep Dive Analysis And Its Impact on Other Assets✨Welcome to my channel. Here, we conduct a daily analysis of crypto projects and forex pairs. 📅 Today's Analysis : Today, we'll be diving into the Forex market and analyzing the DXY index. 🔄 Previous Analysis Recap : In our last analysis, we reviewed this index in the weekly and monthly timeframes, incorporating fundamental analysis based on US interest rates and economic conditions. We noted that if support at 100.883 is broken, the price might start a downward movement. Today, we'll delve into the weekly, daily, and 4-hour timeframes to examine the smaller cycles and waves of this index. 📰 News Overview : Let's start with significant US news. The most noteworthy event is the incident involving Donald Trump, the Republican representative, who luckily survived. This incident has swayed many votes towards Trump, and positive discussions about him are trending on social media. This happened on a Sunday, so its impact on the Forex market was limited, but it immediately influenced the crypto market. Given Trump's support for crypto, Bitcoin saw a 2% upward candle and continued a short-term upward trend. On the other hand, the situation for Democrats isn't looking good. Joe Biden, their representative, seems unlikely to win based on his debate performances. The general sentiment on social media favors Trump, and with the power of media, it seems likely that Trump will be the next US president. If Trump wins, we might see growth in the crypto market due to his supportive stance. 📅 Weekly Timeframe [/b In this timeframe, after a significant price rise, the correction began, and the price dropped from the 113.305 peak to the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 100.883. It has since formed a long-term range between 100.883 and 106.630 since late 2022. Within this range, there's a symmetrical triangle pattern, and we are in the last third of the triangle with reduced price fluctuations between 104.039 and 106.121. 🎯 If the price gains downward momentum, our target can be 100.883. If it breaks the 106.121 resistance, the price will enter a strong supply zone between 106.121 and 106.630. For more details on this zone, we should move to the daily timeframe. 📅 Daily Timeframe In this timeframe, I've adjusted the support and resistance levels for more precision. The supply zone between 106.338 and 107.017 is crucial because the price faked out below the trendline once and bounced back up from the 100.883 static support, indicating a strong upward trend. However, it failed to penetrate this supply zone and was rejected at 106.338 without reaching the main resistance at 107.017. 📉 Last week's candle closed below the trendline, but I don't consider this breakout valid yet as it could be another fake-out, with the price bouncing from the nearest support and resuming its upward movement. I'll wait to see if the 104.039 support holds before confirming the trendline break. If this support breaks and the price stabilizes below it, a downward wave may begin, targeting 102.668 and then 100.883. 📈 If the price bounces back up from 104.039, the nearest resistance is at 106.338, a very strong supply zone. 🧩 Given the fundamental conditions and the break of 38.71 support in the RSI oscillator, a price decline seems more likely, but nothing is certain. If I see bullish signs and confirmations according to my trading strategy, I will adjust my view. The market is always changing, and one should not be biased towards a previous analysis. 📅 4-Hour Timeframe: This timeframe is too noisy for detailed analysis, so I'll focus on triggers and key points. 📈 If the price stabilizes above 104.524 and forms a higher high and low, we might see a Failure Swing pattern, indicating a trend change per Dow Theory. If this pattern completes, we can consider the market bullish in the 4-hour timeframe. Breaking the 50 level in RSI could provide additional confirmation. ⚡️ Next resistances are 105.162 and 106.121. 📉 For a bearish scenario, the 4-hour trigger aligns with the daily, and a break below 104.039 would suggest a downward move. 🔍 Let's look at the DXY's impact on Gold and Bitcoin. 👑 Bitcoin Analysis If the USD strengthens, Bitcoin might see another correction wave to the 56k and 47k levels. If the USD weakens, new ATHs for Bitcoin could be on the horizon. 🧲 Given Bitcoin's strong upward momentum and the visible curved trendline, we can target 130k for Bitcoin if the USD's value drops. 🥇 Gold Analysis Gold has significant upward momentum and is currently recording new ATHs. If the DXY declines further, gold could target $2800. 🔑If the DXY strengthens, gold might correct to around $2000, but this seems unlikely as gold typically has minor corrections and maintains a long-term upward trend. ⚠️Please note that this is not financial advice. I'm simply introducing this project to you, and remember always to do your own research. 🫶 If you found this analysis helpful and want to support me, please boost this analysis. Feel free to leave a comment or suggest a coin you'd like me to analyze next.
TVC:DXYShort
by itsparham96
1
DJT stock: Dead cat rebound or wave of support?Trump Media & Technology Group Corp's stock surged following news of an attempted assassination on major shareholder Donald Trump at a political rally on Sunday. Given the fervent nature of Trump's supporters, it's plausible that voters could turn to their wallets before casting ballots in November as the presidential race heats up. Drawing parallels to the recent activity surrounding the GameStop stock, a meme rally cannot be entirely ruled out, potentially presenting a lucrative opportunity for speculators. For this scenario to materialize, high trading volumes in the stock need to persist. The average trading volume over the past two weeks is around 10 million shares. If today's activity surpasses this figure, it could indicate sustained interest in the stock following yesterday's massive gap up and record trading volume. Although DJT stock closed $6 lower than its opening price, it currently hovers around the crucial $40 level. If the bulls can maintain the price above this level before today's close, it could signal a further bullish trend. Conversely, if the price were to fall below the $40 mark, we might see the stock trading at its early July levels of $30. This trade is highly speculative, and while the current political climate could easily add more fuel to the fire, it's crucial to monitor the fundamentals. DJT reported a loss for Q1, but with Q2 earnings around the corner, investors should stay vigilant. Call spreads with 30-40 DTE (shortly before Q2 earnings report) might be an interesting play here regardless of the direction you're betting on.
NASDAQ:DJT
by WHSelfInvest
Bitcoin healthy pullback or "Strategic Asset"?Bitcoin social media has shifted the narrative from YOLO 6-figure SOON(tm) to the June bear move being over to now accepting that this is a "healthy pullback." The bullish trend, which began in October 2023, officially ended June 24th with the confirmed cross of the Ichimoku cloud. See my videos and posts from last week for education. Bitcoin now sits today, on America day, at the final Volume Profile Support it can possibly hold before returning to the ETF launch levels. Price action euphorias have a sort of sweet irony such that it is almost guaranteed to come back to said levels. Speaking of America day, Trump has shifted the Overton Window just a bit by talking of Bitcoin as a strategic asset. www.forbes.com Whether he would actually do anything for Bitcoin is dubious but he is the first Presidential candidate to openly support the cryptocurrency. Noting this statement by the Trump campaign is not an endorsement but it is important to note from a sentiment perspective. In a bull market, any and all possible bullish news would see a bullish response. That such a bold statement by any candidate would be followed by one of the largest down moves in recent history confirms that the current market sentiment is bearish.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by norok
Is Biden quitting the biggest market risk right now? Bloomberg reports that dozens of U.S. House Democratic lawmakers are considering sending President Biden a letter urging him to withdraw from the race. The New York Times confirms this, citing a key Biden ally who reveals that the president understands the fragility of his candidacy following a lackluster debate performance last week. Despite the speculation, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre has dismissed these claims as "absolutely false," asserting, "The president said it is absolutely false. That is coming directly from him." President Biden, at least publicly, remains steadfast, confident in his mental sharpness, and in another concerning sign, seemingly perplexed by the ongoing doubts about his capabilities. However, a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll highlights one in three Democrats think Biden should step aside. When potential replacements were considered, former First Lady Michelle Obama strangely emerged as the leading candidate in a hypothetical matchup against former President Trump, with a 50% to 39% lead. Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris trails Trump by a narrow margin of 42% to 43%, indicating her competitive standing is comparable to Biden's. Rep. Lloyd Doggett of Texas has become the first Democratic lawmaker to publicly call for Biden's withdrawal, expressing hope that the president will make the "painful and difficult decision" to step down.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
The US Election and Possible Fed Rate DetourCBOT: Micro 2-Year Yield ( CBOT_MINI:2YY1! ), Micro 10-Year Yield ( CBOT_MINI:10Y1! ) Last Thursday night, I watched the first Biden-Trump presidential debate live on TV, along with tens of millions of likely voters of the 2024 US presidential election. Who won the debate? According to the exit poll conducted by 538/Ipsos: • 60.1% of the likely voters being polled said former President Trump performed best; • Only 20.8% said President Biden performed best at the debate. However, the debate may not change the minds of many voters. • Biden gained support from voters who would likely vote for him, from 46.7% before the debate, to 48.2% after that; • Trump also gained support modestly, from 43.5% to 43.9%; • Robert Kennedy, Jr., an independent presidential candidate who did not participate in the debate, saw his support increase from 17.3% to 18.4%. What mattered most to voters? • Inflation or increasing costs is the No. 1 issue, called out by 50% of the likely voters; • Immigration came in 2nd at 37%, while Political polarization is the 3rd at 25%. The second and final presidential debate is scheduled on September 10th. Ahead of this, the Republican National Convention will be held on July 15th-18th. Donald Trump is likely to be nominated as the Republican candidate for the US presidential election. The Democratic National Convention will be held on August 19th-22nd. After his poor performance in the first presidential debate, we are uncertain if President Biden will be nominated, or replaced by an alternative candidate. On TradingView, our focus is always on trading and investing. However, geopolitics plays a crucial role in shaping global markets, influencing economic growth, investment flows, and asset prices. Understanding the complex interplay between political events and market dynamics is essential for investors seeking to navigate the ever-changing landscape. That being said, I would like to outline these generic scenarios: • If President Biden is re-elected for a 2nd term, he would likely maintain similar political and industry policies which we have been seeing in his first term; • If Former President Trump returns to the White House, we would likely see huge reversal in the policies enacted by the current Administration. What Donald Trump did in his first term will be a good indicator for what lies ahead. Looking across asset classes, I think the interest rate regime will be impacted the most in a Trump-winning scenario. The US Interest Rate Regime In the 21st century, we have four US presidents so far: George W. Bush (2001-2008), Barack Obama (2009-2016), Donald Trump (2017-2020) and Joe Biden (2021-2024). The US Federal Reserve also has four Chairmen: Alan Greenspan (1987-2005), Ben Bernanke (2006-2013), Janet Yellen (2014-2017) and Jerome Powell (2018-2026). I observe that Fed Funds Rate exhibited unique pattern under each president. Let’s look at President George W. Bush first: • The younger President Bush came into the White House when the Internet bubble just busted, and the Enron and WorldCom scandals shook the stock markets. “9/11” occurred less than 8 months into his presidency. • Fed Chair Alan Greenspan executed steep rate cuts to rescue the economy in crisis, pushing the Fed Fund rate down to 1% from 6.5%. • By 2004, the economy has recovered and became overheated. To combat inflation, Chairman Greenspan hiked interest rate all the way to 5.25%. • High interest rates busted the subprime housing market, triggering the Great Recession of 2008. New Fed Chair Ben Bernanke steered the country through the financial crisis, and lowered interest rates to 0-25 basis points. The Obama Administration (2009-2016): • President Obama inherited the Zero Rate environment, and throughout most of his 8-year presidency, interest rates largely stayed at the ultra-low levels. • In the 3rd year of her Fed Chair tenure, Janet Yellen began raising interest rates, from 0-25 bps to 1.25% by the end of her four-year term. The Trump Administration (2017-2020): • In November 2017, President Trump nominated Jerome Powell as new Fed Chair. • Chairman Powell continued the rate hike and raised the Fed Funds rate to 2.25%. • President Trump openly criticized his Fed Chair and intervened central bank policy. • Under great pressure, the Fed lowered rates in 2019. With the pandemic sending the economy into a free fall, Fed Funds rate was back to 0-25 bps by April 2020. The Biden Administration (2021-2024): • During the pandemic, a global supply chain bottleneck pushed US inflation to a 40-year-high at 9.1% by July 2022. • Albeit initially assessing the inflation as transitory, the Fed launched a series of rate increases beginning March 2022, pushing the Zero Rate to 5.25-5.50% by 2023. • While the US CPI came down to about the 3-3.5% range, the Fed was hesitant to lower rates too early. It had maintained the current rate in the last seven FOMC meetings. As we observed from the above, Donald Trump strongly believes that high interest rates would hurt the economy. He would go out of his way and convince the Fed to lower rates. What he considered “too high” was 2.25% in 2018. The Fed Funds rate is now more than doubled at 5.25-5.50%. In my opinion, in a Trump-winning scenario, he would call for the Fed to lower rates as soon as he returns to the White House. The Fed would cave in again, and quicken its rate cut schedule. Trading with CBOT Micro Yield Futures For someone who shares my view of aggressive rate-cut schedule under a new Trump Administration, he could express it by trading with CBOT Micro Yield Futures. Unlike bond futures, Micro Yield contracts quote the respective interest rates directly. A lower interest rate means lower futures prices. Last Friday, the August contract of Micro 2Y Yield futures (2YYQ4) were settled at 4.628%. Each contract has a notional value of 1,000 index points, or $4,628 at the current price. To buy (long) or sell (short) 1 contract, a trader needs to deposit an initial margin of $330. The August Micro 10Y Yield (10YQ4) settled at 4.318%. Notional value is 1,000 index points or $4,318. Initial margin is $320. In my opinion, rate cuts are coming, but the timing is uncertain. At what point the presidential pressure will cause rate cuts to speed up is also uncertain. To counter the uncertainty, a trader could use a Futures Rollover strategy. This is to maintain a Short position on Micro Yield Futures over time. When an existing contract is about to expire, we could close the position by buying the same contract, with the long order offsetting the short position. Meanwhile, the trader could enter a Short position with the newly listed contract. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT:ZQ1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
4
Bitcoin Performed MUCH Better Under TRUMP in 2016There is a new Democratic Propaganda campaign going around which is stating the Stock Market performed MUCH better under Biden. This is completely FALSE. the DNC is preying upon ignorant bystanders who have no knowledge about the economy nor how to read a chart. The Stock Market performed 14% better with Trump in office! And Bitcoin performed 1,459% better with Trump!! Wake TF up! You're being lied to and following like a bunch of blind sheep!
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by jonnieking
2
Bitcoin Performance - Trump vs BidenThis is a follow up to the Stock Market Propaganda graphic that has been going around stating the markets performed better under Biden vs Trump. This is an outright lie. I posted a chart yesterday on the Bitcoin performance for each President's time, but I mixed the dates up due to my lack of sleep with my newborn so reposting now. (TV doesn't let you delete ideas) After re-analyzing, Bitcoin actually performed 3,822% better with Trump! Don't believe the lies that are being spread. DYOR!
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by jonnieking
Political Sway: Biden, Trump, Macron, and Mbappé Investors are bracing for a series of political events in the coming weeks, beginning with Thursday’s debate between U.S. President Joe Biden and Republican Nominee Donald Trump, and extending to elections in France and the United Kingdom. Thursday's debate is expected to offer contrasts between Biden's and Trump's economic visions (in-between personal jabs). Trump has hinted at his debate strategy, focusing on inflation and criticizing Biden's economic record. "Under Biden, the economy is in ruins," Trump declared on Saturday. His economic proposals include imposing strict tariffs on imports, pushing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and extending the tax cuts from his first term. Economists warn these measures could stoke inflation further if implemented. While Biden may avoid discussing the ballooning federal deficit, Trump is expected to bring it into the spotlight, despite the national debt increasing by 25% during his presidency. At the same time, EUR/USD traders need to stay alert as the French elections approach. The final week before the vote could bring significant shifts in market sentiment, driven by polling data. Current projections show the far-right National Rally (RN) party and its allies leading with 35.5% of the vote in the first round of parliamentary elections. Meanwhile, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition is trailing in third place with 19.5%. Interestingly, football star Kylian Mbappé on Sunday urged the French public to vote against "extremes," a statement interpreted as an endorsement for Macron. Mbappé, currently the highest-paid footballer in the world, could influence younger voters and add an unpredictable element to the election's outcome.
by BlackBull_Markets
Natural Gas: The Golden OpportunityNatural gas has seen a nice rejection off of 3.19. A double top on nat gas is observed, does this mean we go lower? In the near term perhaps some more consolidation is needed but the trend is setting up for the infamous golden cross. If we get a bullish cross of the 50MA & 200MA this is a likely long term trend signal. This signals higher probability of a bullish uptrend. As we approach the elections, a potential trump win could influence the price.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Trading-Capital
US Spot BTC ETFs Garner $887m in Day, BTC approaches 72k BTC price approaches $72K: The price of bitcoin surged to nearly $72K on Wednesday after US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded their second highest single day of net inflows. President Biden vetoes a bipartisan resolution aiming to reverse an SEC rule on crypto custody services: The White House said the resolution would “jeopardize the well-being of consumers.” Robinhood buys exchange: Robinhood announced Thursday it has agreed to acquired Bitstamp, a European crypto exchange, for around $200 million. MicroStrategy and its chairman Michael Saylor have settled tax fraud allegations for FWB:40M : The company’s stock subsequently jumped more than 3% on Wednesday; the company maintains nearly FWB:15B in BTC holdings. Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, founder of Binance, started a four-month prison term in Santa Barbara, California: CZ admitted to violating the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) in November. Shares in GameStop surged 21%: Keith Gill, "Roaring Kitty," revealed a $116M stake in the company, driving renewed investor interest and trading activity. 👤 Topic of the Week: What does KYC mean for crypto? 👉 Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini