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EUR USD Daily if price rejects the zone - sell.Here is the EUR chart only - note these setups are to show where if price rejects we will look short - same information below as previous post - incase traders see this instead. We have our take on the EUR USD - a lot of speculators have seen the Euro as the stronger of the currencies against the USD which has been seen as out of favour - but this is all part of the plan from the FED and US government in order to see the dollar as good for import and export . Is this all part of the money printing plan for the future to de-value the dollar? or a huge mistake causing an sovereign debt crisis? or just part of supply and demand? Let's see the Data: COT Data: EUR AVG Long Short Total long% Short % Net Change Avg_13 180,947 86,109 267,056 68% 32% 94,837 2,910 Avg_20 171,218 105,719 276,937 63% 37% 65,499 9,843 Avg_130 169,626 177,152 346,778 51% 49% -7,256 3,155 Avg_50 169,349 175,216 344,565 51% 49% -5,867 3,381 USD AVG Long Short Total long% Short % Net Change Avg_13 18,057 12,046 30,554 60% 40% 6,462 -1,569 Avg_20 19,538 12,046 31,584 62% 38% 7,491 -958 AVG 50 30,399 11,917 42,316 70% 30% 18,481 -742 Avg_130 31,126 12,171 43,297 70% 30% 18,955 -672 Technicals: Monthly Fibonacci retracement drawn and shows price will either bounce and reject 61.8% Fibonacci retrace a break to the upside will test the 70.5% or hit the 1.21 zone - Note the monthly trendline from using the Ray - has proved the constant lower highs and lower lows printed in the cycles. The lowest low of 1.066 has shown a good retest zone for targets. Fundamentals: US election rallies before taking place at the end of the year with campaigning - We have NFP numbers showing millions return to work.. but also high unemployment still looming. Trade war with China, Hong Kong unfolding with US responding High figures in multiple states which are concerns for large communities- record numbers still being released Fiscal intervention in July, August for stimulus.. constant printing money is not good for the economy. US tech stocks have seen the highest returns and zero confirmation by Dow30 and S&P following suit. - will this last? no.. billionaires just adding wealth, SME businesses not receiving the correct funding at all.. Dow 30 is in a fragile state and desperate to keep pushing higher but limited upside will cause a steep decline - refer to Dow chart.. around 27,000 is a good point for a previous monthly high but it may fall over at 28000 tops. Crippling 1trillion money printing exercise to be released to prop up false growth. enter sovereign debt crsis - printing all this money is just beyond words. With having a weak dollar and inflation created - the dollar will be out of favour. Euro second wave & quarantine rules for tourists outside EU and now Spain for UK. Brexit talks are still in focus as not much separates a no deal scenario. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
Short
by LupaCapital
Nasdaq sell - if price closes below -0.27 Fib extensionHello traders and analyst - we have been monitoring the Nasdaq and profit taking, but now it is time for a new outlook. Despite the obvious of the Nasdaq and technology sector growing throughout the V-shaped first demand zone hit back in March - the Nasdaq has reached its all time high. W formation: The Nasdaq ceiling of 11,000 was tapped and now a W formation has occurred at the top - what happens after a W formation? We have a sell to correct - as the extension will not be sustained. Also conducting a Wave pattern but applies - Wave 5 profits are now being completed. Fibonacci - Now what can we see - price is battling for the monthly close of -0.272% over extension - However, we can see price moving against this to close below. If price does not close below - await the next move on the August candle to verify further selling. Monthly low - March - 1.00 0.00 point is the Feb high So our technical view: as with the S&P, VIX it is the same scenario - where price has begun to complete a 5 wave target and now needs to break the rising channel which is also the supply zone. COT data - Long Shorts Total %Longs %Shorts Net Avg_13 13,697 9,948 23,645 58% 42% 3,749 Avg_20 13,598 9,699 23,297 58% 42% 3,899 Avg 50 14,545 10,071 24,616 59% 41% 4,474 Avg_130 14,566 10,037 24,604 59% 41% 4,529 Buyers keep looking to take out the stops of sellers but the shorts are creeping in now. let's await the 10,800-11,000 before assessing again. Same fundamental view from previous posts apply. Nothing has changed. A question, will the stimulus provide further support or is the show over? A reset is needed? Many thanks for all the likes and support. To any new followers, welcome and we hope we inform your trading needs. Thanks, Team Lupa
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by LupaCapital
GBP USD - weakness coming as high, lower high formedHello traders and analysts, Here is our take on GBP USD - the trade is active, with FX it is a moving target so we will look for an additional entry upon a nice supply up coming but will it hold? the answer is yes, so price reacted at our 0.705 and resisted - now we have a long aiming to close into the purple zone. what has changed since the last chart? So what is new is that we have had a zone touch and a lower 4hour zone touch. We can see personally a failed touch of the zone, the GBP is staying weak against the dollar with uncertainty of the GBP strength so we will now look to the downside and close out longs. COT report: Long Short Total %Long %Short GBP Avg_13 32,923 49,892 82,815 40% 60% Avg_20 41,245 43,918 85,163 48% 52% Avg_130 43,323 68,286 111,609 41% 59% AVG_50 43,547 67,458 111,004 41% 59% USD Avg_13 18,508 12,046 30,554 60% 40% Avg_20 19,886 11,437 31,323 63% 37% AVG 50 31,006 11,782 42,788 71% 29% Avg_130 31,573 11,946 43,520 71% 29% Technicals: We have a good opportunity here to break the trendline as the triple top formation failed with heavy resistance at 1.265XX and weekly fibonacci level of 0.705 this could be a strong opportunity to sell again. However, be aware of the above supply which is a full retracement from lows of 1.14 - 1.15 if price reacts and falls back into the range - look for a range sell, however if price shows a breakout and closes above with a weakened dollar. look long There is bullish sentiment on the 4hour, but daily we can still a nice range here - it is shaking out a lot of investors which is good for liquidity grabs and flow of funds between the players. We are playing the supply and demand here between bulls and bears. This is all that matters. for this trade however we are in short. Add sell positions if a fakeout of the retest of the breakout to create a lower low. Fundamentals Coronavirus in the EU and UK - both showing cases in respective countries, Euro stimulus package has not been agreed so can show signs of strength of GBP if this fails to transpire. Brexit talks - will send the pound with huge strength once a deal is reached - inverse will send EUR to almost parity if talks end and no deal is reached Keep a watch for manufacturing orders in Germany and any causes for concern within France, Italy, Germany and Spain which can drag data components down. Vaccination attempts to drive market sentiment. USD safehaven upon tensions between HK move on China vs USA debate. USA - cases in multiple states are high risk, the disconnect is unbelievable. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
Short
by LupaCapital
ridethepig | TRY Q3 Macro Flows 📌 The buyers constitute a formidable opponent holding the breakup and putting sellers out of action. The moves are ready, to fend off another wave of risk looks impossible now and Turkey will suffer a major hammer that may be unendurable for local banks. A break above 7.20xx will unlock the widely track 7.80xx since last year. If buyers hold (and it looks a done deal now) for this monthly closing pattern it means we are ready to march forward in August and September to cripple EM FX. But if sellers hold at the end (seems very difficult with USD shortages entering back into play) then buyers are kept busy. Naturally continue to follow the macro strategy, on account of the 2020 macro flow map: Another move that would be difficult for Turkey to defend against. If you are bearish, continue sticking the knife in via buying USDTRY because it would no longer be possible to prevent the settling above 7.20xx. 📍 The other important note to make is the lack of foreign inflows... rather the opposite, heavy outflows continue with overseas participation in Turkish bonds now at record lows, as is usually the case in the end of dictatorships. There is nowhere for the CBRT to hide.. they will have to devalue the TRY to offset the loss in access to markets. Take a look over at EURTRY which is still up at ATH's ... this retrace is profit taking in the dollar train rather than Turkey stabilisation. Stay long, look for 7.80xx as the main macro target by year-end. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
4
USDCZK huge potential on the downsideExpect a retest of support in the next few days. Then there will be 2 scenarios : A) Price bounce marking a double bottom and possible bull run or back to the range B) Support is broken -> Ideal scenario as this would open up a huge gap to the downside How to trade it? Well, I have entered on the break of 4H support and will reassess when D support is reached. Another possibility is to wait until support is reached and then assess there, the R:R will still be great. If using this option u can wait for a long bullish candle to enter long or for a break (or break and retest) to enter short. Theres no right or wrong as long as u follow a plan. If you have any questions please leave them in comments. Did you like the idea?? Give us a thumbs up!! Do you have a different view and analysis? Let us know in the comments. I love to be proven wrong. It is the only way to become better. Remember that trading is only part of your life. Do not spend all day in front of the screen!! Surf, Trade, Live!!
Short
by MicKi
Chinese government can manipulate US elections by manipulating There is a positive correlation between the US and Chinese stock markets, and the Chinese government can manipulate US elections by manipulating the Chinese stock market. The Chinese government is using its power to raise the Chinese stock index.The Chinese government has boosted the US stock market by pulling up the Chinese stock market. Through such abductions, it is difficult for Trump to adopt a tough trade policy against China.The probability of Trump's re-election appears to be in the hands of the Chinese government.
SSE:000001Long
by CrazyMartin
GBP AUD - long term buys update - accumulation rangeHello traders and analysts, We have an update to our GBP AUD trading range - price is still very much ranging but we have managed to yet again catch a trade to the upside whilst still hedging the downside movements. COT Data: Aussie Long Short Total %Long %Short 40,025 42,933 82,958 48% 52% 27,228 56,775 84,003 33% 67% AVG 13 weekly COT data: Pound 34,424 55,414 89,838 38% 62% 31,267 45,396 76,663 42% 58% AVG 13 weekly Technicals: What can we see technically? - Daily bearish but breaking momentum short in the channel. - weekly bearish zone touched - bounce from the demand zone zone. - we can see the trend beginning to add long positions to correct - this has now occurred. - we have made lower lows and lower highs- showing the correction - now in a consolidation zone with some great wicks formed and a reversal to the upside - this has been boosted by GBP Tuesday as of writing. -AUD USD ranging market looking to break 0.70 for upside strength. -Large downside gap to fall to if price looks to create a new low structure in bearish confluence and momentum trading. - COT report in favour of AUD however, risk off will shift sentiment. Fundamentals Aussie is a commodity currency so is highly affected with exports of natural resources, Gold, Oil, Grains, Copper etc. Victoria lockdown has caused issues for the restart of the border openings USD outlook affects the progress of strength for Ausrtralia. Coronavirus within the US sees an affect on the economy for the US as a result affects directly Australia where the index correlates. Note: Trading is about timing. so even if our stop loss gets hit on the chart. We may not have entered all together and orders can be adjusted. Trade what you see, this is purely our Bias. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. Many thanks for your support to our existing and new followers. Much appreciated Thanks, Team Lupa.
by LupaCapital