CADCHF - Possible Second EntryPrice broke out of ascending correction.
Already in from the top. Looking to scale in for another entry - will be looking for a brief retracement and then entering
Trump
HOLD THE PHONE... ES to 4000+ by November ???In short, I am no longer short.
The recent additional QE measures and absurd position of the Fed to continue to expand it's balance sheet with no regard of the consequences tell me a few things. A. The fed and talking heads know that they have pretty much convinced THE HERD that blowing a bubble inside of a bubble is not only logical, it's our saving grace. B. That this will end badly but, not yet.
If you look back to the '29 crash that was also fueled by a careless debt-fueled cycle, you will see that prior to the main collapse, there was one last blow the top off-pump... That is what I believe began on March 23rd and will continue through the election.
Nothing that has happened this year has been a surprise to the powerful elite. The real Bull/Bear battle here is political in nature, nothing maters but staying in control. I believe we are in an impulse 5 wave and will break ATH in the ES in the next 5 weeks. We are collecting under the top end of the all-important megaphone pattern and I believe we are about to breakthrough. After reaching ATH, matching the NASDAQ's pattern, then we will get a nice retracement to the top side of the megaphone pattern. From there a weaker and potentially very powerful bearish pattern. Perhaps a H&S pattern like BOEING's chart prior to the Feb breakdown.
If Trump loses the market, he loses his base and the election. Therefore, there is nothing this "team" won't do to keep the party going for another few months. They have made that very clear and it's only 20 weeks away.
I can see it now... Donny loses the election with markets at ATH's. like 4150 in the ES. Crazy numbers... He waves goodbye and signs his name on the V shape recovery he promised. Then, with the country in Biden/China's hands, we will see the epic collapse of our bloated state.
156% valuations to GPD might look small by November.
... or maybe we get rejected here and tumble, however, last I checked the money machine is still working.
Food for thought or comment:
What would happen if Biden wins and tries to clawback corporate tax cutes? Can he do that?
What if the US's credit rating is downgraded internationally?
What happens if we are no longer the reserve currency?
History Repeats Itself: Those Who Do Not Learn History Are Doomed To Repeat It.
Second wave of virus coming even though Fauci says is still wave 1.
Everything is setup for another bear market, and when Robinhooders start to loose money for their bull positions, they with turn sides and give strenght to bear market like a Domino Effect.
Vix touched bottom on 24.50 and S&P500 futures touched their peak on 3230.
Is a bubble inside another bubble.
Buying stocks of collapsed companies, is no good idea... bubbles DO break!
Fear has been evident for the last 1 and a half week.
EURNZD - Another opportunity to enter SHORTSo far we've had 2 clean entries for EURNZD. Looking for a third now
USDDKK Simple bearish setupHey there!
Very simple setup explained in the chart. This trade has a stupidly high Risk to Reward ratio so we cannot let it pass.
If you have any questions please leave them in comments.
Did you like the idea?? Give us a thumbs up!!
Do you have a different view and analysis? Let us know in the comments. I love to be proven wrong. It is the only way to become better.
Remember that trading is only part of your life. Do not spend all day in front of the screen!!
Surf, Trade, Live!!
USDCZK Short it and forget about itHi there!
Once again, all explanations are in the chart. Pretty simple setup to be honest.
If the pair closes above most recent swing high the idea will be invalidated.
If you have any questions please leave them in comments.
Did you like the idea?? Give us a thumbs up!!
Do you have a different view and analysis? Let us know in the comments. I love to be proven wrong. It is the only way to become better.
Remember that trading is only part of your life. Do not spend all day in front of the screen!!
Surf, Trade, Live!!
EURUSD Long aiming at resistanceHi everyone!
The pair is in an interesting stage. We have seen a surge in the last couple of weeks and yesterday it reacted to support. We stay long aiming to that area of resistance between 1.15-1.155 .
We cannot rule out the possibility of forming a Head and Shoulders pattern at around the area we are now. If the pair closes today in the red I will exit it and look for better opportunities.
If you have any questions please leave them in comments.
Did you like the idea?? Give us a thumbs up!!
Do you have a different view and analysis? Let us know in the comments. I love to be proven wrong. It is the only way to become better.
Remember that trading is only part of your life. Do not spend all day in front of the screen!!
Surf, Trade, Live!!
ridethepig | DJIA Floodgates Are Open!!📍 Who's in Control?
- Sellers clearly have the luxury of momentum on the recent breakdown, advancing here too fast would be an immediate mistake since after that buyers will lose faith and start to cover. The correct procedure will be a time-consuming chop inside the 25,000 - 23,000 range to shake out those travelling Robinhood crowd.
We have the weapon of a zig-zag to thank for this play; make good use of it and in cases of too much pressure watch for Fed bending the knee. There now follows a tactical and measured move in risk-off as cases start to tick higher around the world again.
If you are not already loaded on the sell side, the trip you are planning for here should be carefully measured and prepared before pulling the trigger. We are still yet to entice the major capitulation and pickup the lows. All that seems necessary before we can begin the advance later in 2021.
ridethepig | USDJPY ST Market Flows 2020.06.12Eyes on UMich today. Sentiment remains awful out there despite how talking heads are selling re-openings to the masses. A very dovish Fed has forced Global Equities to play ball and marked a meaningful top across risk markets. VIX exploding higher after testing 🔑 25.0x support and implying the next move coming is a lot more sinister. This ST swing does not change the long-term multi-year chart in USDJPY .
Let's map a quick cheatsheet for those trading the flows today in USDJPY . Here actively looking to start adding shorts using strong resistance (108.5x) <=> soft resistance (107.5x) <=> soft support (106.6x) <=> strong support (106.0x) for reference.
Thanks as usual for keeping the likes, charts, questions and comments coming. Good luck all those trading the weekly closing range.
GBPNZD on a clear downtrendG'day everyone!
All the explanations for this trade are in the chart. In a nutshell, follow the arrow but be careful because we are tapping into an area of support. If the price shoots up and closes above the most recent highs we will close the trade for the time being and look for better opportunities.
If you have any questions please leave them in comments.
Did you like the idea?? Give us a thumbs up!!
Do you have a different view and analysis? Let us know in the comments. I love to be proven wrong. It is the only way to become better.
Remember that trading is only part of your life. Do not spend all day in front of the screen!!
Surf, Trade, Live!!
ridethepig | CHF Market Commentary 2020.06.05Clearly all the action has been in EURCHF after the enormous bids that came through into euro yesterday. Large macro players are liking what they hear from ECB and the Commission which is setting the stage for the EURCHF short-covering.
The key divergence can be seen in USDCHF breaking down, this isn't a CHF driven move but rather from the USD weakness. I am interested to chase this lower as risk sentiment begins to turn down again and CHF begins to find that safe-haven demand. Currently the outlook for CHF is firmly neutral, this can change as early as today's NFP.
How it behaves below the 0.950x handle will be thoroughly examined, the totally rigid cast around the risk rally is still part of a "KNEE JERK REACTION" phase from the initial crash. This means that markets will begin to start trading the facts around a recession and slow recovery. If any any doubts of the recession consider the following diagrams:
For a) see 2's 5's curve screaming recession
For b) , consider the unemployment levels
In this simplest of all positions, every other time this happened it ended badly for the economy. Assuming USD does not devalue materially into 2020 its repo will grow and continue expanding the balance sheet , one way or another eventually this is going to look like Fed has been financing the WhiteHouse and then the game is up. CHF appears in the FX desks to be starting to finally bow down to the boss, that is risk.
The blockader that is employment, is not flexible here and able to go on long journeys in all directions. The elasticity; should be kept in mind and used to analyse risk flows as such.
Bulls in ControlAlongside the weakening of the dollar, we see that this pair has eventually risen from the grave( the most recent resistance=support zone).
If you have not established a long position yet, now is the time.
Good luck and follow me for more!
ridethepig | DXY Long-Term Macro MapThe attentive readers have been asking can USD still devalue in this race to the bottom! The simple answer is that this is a good ploy in in such a restricted monetary environment although this move would be considered a bad one nowadays from a strictly fundamental perspective: the weakness of the dollar is necessary in order for equities to continue the advance. US were faced with a 'choose your side' between a weaker stock market or a softer currency; and opted for the weaker green.
📍 On the positioning side...
The fate of the game now depends on the retrace leg in macro charts. If the dollar is driven off the cliff, then as G10 & EM FX are already committed to the short-circuit the flows will be very simple to track. This is a nice illustration of the Quarterly theme "aggressive dollar devaluation".
The move in question is transparent and therefore a good illustration of the theme and how to officially mark an outpost on the 'B' wave. So the correct play is to complete the ABC sequence before adopting a wait-and-see approach.
In order to get in as quickly as possible and at any price, we must begin to dig into the inner swings on lower time frames. Today we 'know' that the satisfactory requirements have been met at 102.5x, the plan from last year:
The longer term chart shows clearly the move(s) we are tracking and expecting.
" => The move towards 102 is still corrective and within the bigger picture this is a large B wave of an ABC since the cycle highs in Jan 2017. " ✅
" => In theory we can expect another 5 wave decent to match the logic of the previous 5 wave move, ideally this will kick start the flow from 102-103 range highs. " ✅
The manoeuvre from sellers becomes crystal clear, a devaluation cycle, they wish to seize the 75 and 50 targets in the multi-year correction before raising the stakes later in the decade once supply shortages enter into the picture. But the move cannot be said to have positive value on volatility, since expansions and contractions in vol have a case to play :
📍 On the technical side...
Here I had been expecting the sell-off (at last!) from the 102.5x highs and had prepared a nice problem for my opponent, namely the EURUSD explosive move to the topside and now threatening the ultimate break of 1.15xx. It is relatively easy for someone who knows about the CB intervention on such a line and how it must be put under pressure. The 87.4x in Dollar is a minimum target for our 'C' leg that we are tracking, anything beyond this would imply that the impulsive leg towards 75 and 50 is underway.
In what follows from the comments, I will give me feelings and views to the next moves, so we can follow what is happening. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
ridethepig | JPY Long-Term Macro Map The elements of Macro strategy
📍 On the JPY side...
It is well known the vulnerability of Japanese corporates in this environment, they are particularly exposed because of the demographics and sector exposures. Restaurants, bars, entertainment etc all are looking very feeble, and with credibility seems to be fading on the monetary and fiscal side too since the latest rounds of stimulus there is room for a massive leg lower in JPY. For those following the conversations on Japanese fiscal bazooka, the sizes are insane... Abe just put through another 6% of GDP and raised the overdraft to +/- 15% of GDP. A comatose recovery is underway, even if the fiscal execution is flawless this will take years to recovery.
📍 On the USD side...
Hedging will become a lot lot cheaper with Fed zero rates meaning that the demand for USD will increase as it remains a more attractive hedging instrument than JPY. So we have the following picture: the king stuck in retreat via Covid forcing the front end of the yield curve to stay anchored to rates, while the belly and long end are starting to dislocate and tick higher. This is screaming of longer lasting pain to come . Local politics will provide some ebb and flow although Trump looks a done deal. The only caveat is if Hillary throws her hat in the ring, low odds as per today but of course this will be one to keep an eye on and Biden dependent.
📍 For the technical flows...
We are tracking an ABC sequence with the 'C' leg in play after this weekly close. The 151 remains the main target in the sequence with a time horizon of Q4 21 / Q1 22. The monthly chart is a little out of scope for retail trading, instead it will serve as a compass to help our Weekly, Daily and H4 maps.
A round of Macro Maps will be uploaded over the weekend. As usual jump in with charts, views, questions or etc and thanks for keeping the support rolling with likes, comments and etc!
