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EURJPY Short IdeaHi everyone, here is a small idea I have: EURJPY Short. JPY in my opinion is getting a little bit stronger considering the tensions that are a little bit rising with the US-China Trade War. Also, JPY has released some good numbers these past couple of days, like GDP, etc. so in my opinion JPY is Strong. EUR in my opinion is a little bit neutral, I don't see anything good or very bad for them, so I would say EUR is neutral. I am open to other opinions, so please comment if you have any other opinions or ideas on this trade.
Short
by jimnakmtl
ridethepig | Dollar Weekly StrategyWith DXY sitting at resistance, I don’t see room for any further near term gains in Dollar. More importantly we are approaching key value levels for sellers from the last Q and large corporates have been spotted on the offer in USD. I have made the Dollar chart available and will publish it with al the more pleasure, since it is particularly interesting as we are sitting in the age of the Aggressive USD devaluation. So here is the chart: Sellers are not afraid of the flank attack because strong macro forces are in play in the monthly chart. The play is centralised; buyers must begin to be felt and in addition the prospect of a breakout down is driving the desperation of the exchange: This illustrates nicely the struggle that USD buyers face. Motto: first position, then defend, and finally breakdown. Markets starting to find their footing for 2020 after clearing NFP. Focus this week shifting to a round of important US macro prints, a key week for those trading USD pairs. Good luck all those on the sell side in USD, major moves in play and important chart updates coming in the next few sessions. I will have live coverage as usual in the Telegram . Thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, questions, charts and etc!
TVC:DXYShort
by ridethepig
ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2020.01.09Here markets are starting to see shorts pick up momentum, this has been a very very easy ride so far since our initial entry (see diagram): Oil has drastically sold off, and risk sentiment in the M.E is fading. While we failed to clear 70 we managed to unwind some at 65 on the Iran spike. No reason to change course here yet, market sits itching to breakdown. Remain on the sell side. Tracking closely for the flush in USDRUB to 60 with NFP tomorrow to kickstart the next iteration in flows. For the flows: Sell LMT Entry 61.2 | TP 60.0 | SL 62.0 ... It is the same story in EURRUB as we complete the final few ticks: GL those trading RUB into NFP.
Short
by ridethepig
2
let's make conspiration theory how low Gold would drop?TRUMP LOVE BULLISH GOLD on my previous ideas, Gold could target 1528 (0.50%) the problem is what about 1508(0.618%)? what about 1481(0.786)? let's say there is conspiration about the crisis I make it long time ago that in face of crisis and super bullish trend gold won't retrace 0.618% (daily or weekly visible major retracement) max between 0.5% and 0.618% but never touch 0.618% if you remember last retracement from 1555 to 1446 around 0.318 let's see how deep this time retracement would gold hit 0.618%? or we see Trump doing something again and triggering super bullish gold again before hit 0.618%
OANDA:XAUUSD
by salvanost
Deere Trying to Break Loose Before China DealTractor maker Deere might be setting up for a breakout as the U.S. and China move toward a trade deal. DE has been consolidating in an extremely tight range for the last four weeks. It's pressed against near-term resistance around $177. Meanwhile the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has squeezed up from below as support. The company's backward-looking results haven't been terrific. Management guided lower on November 27, citing the trade war. But now the market is looking past that with Vice Premier Liu He scheduled to sign "phase one" at the White House on January 15. Agricultural exports to the Asian country are a big part of that deal. DE is perhaps the most straightforward name for large institutional investors in the U.S. to position for the news. Buyers may get more active if DE breaks the weekly high near $177. The 50-day SMA can be used for risk management if it goes the other way.
NYSE:DELong
by TradeStation
Sell Gold on de-escalation of Trump vs Iran + no WW3!Sell Gold following the deesclation in USA v Iran geopolitical tensions (for now) and for the fact that "ww3" has stopped trending. There are also technical factors to help with the confluence of signals: Gold has been sold into the 61% fib of the 2011-2016 move lower and big figure of 1600. Gold was up roughly 17% last year, in one of its best years in recent times, if you were long, time to take some profits. Trade: If we close below 1557USD for the week, sell targeting the last notable resistance level of 1487, secondary targets: 1445 (Nov 11th low), 1380(38% fib of 2011-2016)
SAXO:XAUUSDShort
by GetBusy88
How We Predicted the Iran Strikes.Just three days into 2020, and two trading days in, the market reacts to big geopolitical news which shakes the markets. It came out that President Trump ordered a hit on Iranian General of the QUDS force, and Iran’s top military commander, Qasem Soleimani. Markets fell on the news but recovered to end the week close to where they opened, making up for the down move. We saw the safe haven assets go up : Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen as well as Oil. Let us begin with the obvious: Oil. Readers of this blog and my work know that when Oil turned down in 2014, governments forced banks to provide loans to these oil companies to ensure they do not LAY OFF any workers. These oil companies are essentially zombie companies. Oil cannot be allowed to fall because it affects the banks. Oil will be propped up and will continue to be managed higher because it means energy and the financial sectors do well…which make up a large component in the US stock markets. We expect markets to still go up. The sell off we saw is likely people wanting to close positions for this weekend due to the uncertainty, but this will likely be short lived. Do not forget that for a money manager, there is still nowhere to go for yield except the stock markets. This will still force money into stocks. Ironically, many funds have been going into energy because it looks attractive compared to everything else…even though oil fundamentals are not the greatest. This is a chase for yield. Let us not forget about Saudi Aramco as well. The Saudi’s now have even more incentive for higher oil prices. Now onto how we have predicted a future conflict. That post linked below describes the situation in more detail, however I will summarize the major points pertaining to Iran here. Simply this has to do with the US Dollar, and how Russia and China are attacking US Dollar Demand. As long as the Dollar remains the world reserve currency, the Americans can print as much money as they want and not worry about their debts and deficits…a situation the French called “exorbitant privilege”. Russia and China are attacking Dollar demand and are positioning themselves (even instigating) a situation where the Dollar gets stronger and nations choose to NOT use the Dollar for trade due to this strength. My readers know my take on the US Dollar. As the Dollar goes higher, the worlds problems exacerbate. The Dollar is very well what is motivating the Fed to cut rates and other extreme measures to attempt to weaken the Dollar…but it will not work. Iran is key to Russia and China because Iran does NOT take US Dollars for their oil. Nations which have seen their currencies decimated already by US Dollar strength, like the Indian Rupee and the Turkish Lira, cannot afford to use the Dollar for oil anymore and hence why India and Turkey have been buying oil from Iran. Japan, South Korea and European nations also do so, however the Asian nations mentioned and some European nations stopped due to US pressure. Iran is key to Russia and China for their Dollar plan. Russia is also getting close with Saudi Arabia. Putin and future King, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, becoming quite the pals. I have speculated that when he becomes King, he could very well drop the US Dollar for oil and Russia will protect the Kingdom from American retaliation. Why? Well as the Dollar gets stronger, Iranian oil looks more attractive. This means the Saudi’s are losing market share to the Iranians. It would be in their best interest to also drop the Dollar for oil. What is the big factor is the fact the Saudi’s know they are in a prime position right now. The Saudi’s can tell the Americans to deal with the Iranians otherwise they will have to drop the Dollar and accept the Russian and Chinese conditions. For the US, this is a big part of their future decisions. The US has to maintain US Dollar demand, and the best way is by using the military. The US military is now technically the armed branch of the Federal Reserve. We have seen in the past nations like Iraq and Libya threatening and implementing plans to drop the US Dollar for oil…look what happened to them. Russia and China are in the way right now…they will not allow Iran to be destabilized or taken out. The US really has two options: war and/or some sort of capital controls which would see the Eastern sphere literally break off and develop into their own block as many nations look to Moscow and Beijing given the actions of the west. I have written about the war card extensively. It really is a seriously discussed option and US generals are speaking about how they must act within two years. Quite the start to 2020 but we have not seen anything yet in terms of geopolitics and monetary policy.
TVC:DXY
by Uncharted-FX
ridethepig | EUR Recycling We are talking here about a swing high which has to be broken. What can be doubtful here, you may ask... Of course we must direct the attacks towards the highs, but how does one do that if for some reason the highs cannot be shaken? Would it not be opportunistic to sweep the highs and entice profit taking before recycling longs. This is effectively what happened last week in EUR: Here the bear is condemned to die for the common good, as a diversionary sacrifice. The only question markets are asking is a matter of "when" rather than "if" ... Since the Weekly chart we dissected in September, it would be helpful to start by reviewing the advance: Sellers defence does not look very promising; after a possible escalation with US-Iran tensions or with FED USD devaluation via flooding supply side. So buyers play the breakout... exchanging the base for a new trend in 2020-2021: As usual thanks sooo much for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
Long
by ridethepig
4
USDCHF SELL TARGET 0.95700Good evening from the UK. As there is alot of economic volatility it is good to know a few good tips about the markets and how investors react. Currencies can become very volatile is there is a threat on specific economies. the dxy can be impacted negatively due to the iran gestures and drama.This could see investors pull investments out of US assets/stocks/currency and place their capital into assets of solidarity. These could be aspects such as commodities like Gold & Oil where prices could rally to the upside against the dollar or short the dollar against certain currencies. In this case this is what I have as a bias today. We have had 5 bearish weeks for the US Dollar. Investors see the Swiss franc as a safe bet as the thrive of the Switzerland's fantastic economical infrastructure and stability. With threats on the USA looming we could see a continuation of this. Linking it to the Daily technical timeframe, I see price rides underneath the EMA and a slight pullback/retracement the end of last week possibly ready for more sell positions from investors. We will need to see how price opens after the weekend to determine this but a break below the monthly support could be possible. This is a strong support level so a double bottom could form. Price has not closed below 0.96600 since September 18, could the time be now? A great pair to keep an eye on.
Short
by Travis_duncz
USDJPY trade planAfter unprecedented attack from USA sanctioned by Trump the week turned into quite roller coaster. War threats with Iran have created a fearful first week in the market as safe havens surged with gold and silver gaining around 2.4% and 2.7% respectively since the start of 2020 as investors are trying to protect their capital from exposure in risky markets. JPY of course was a massive gainer, USDJPY fell through the channelled resistance and now found key support level just below 108. This weekend we are waiting for the new development between US and Iran to understand the next direction of this pair. A fall through support would indicate continuation of a short trade. Looking at 1 hour time frame in comments section a down trend line and small resistance zone show potential level for reversal and a buying opportunity. This trade will be largely determined by fundamental news from Iran and White House and I will update whenever news come out. Good Luck!
by Antonio_trader