Get started

Trump

ORBEX:Indices Following US-Sino Deal & Trump's Impeachment Vote!In today’s market insights I will talk about the cautious market reaction to the US-China trade deal announcement and what to look for in this week’s volatile session! Yes, I am still expecting markets to move considerably despite the festive season approaching. I analyze the leading NASDAQ and the US index and explain why I expect equities to continue higher! Timestamps NAS100 2H 01:40 DXY 2H 05:00 Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
TVC:DXY
by Orbex
Britain Election Results, Lagarde Position and Trump TweetsElections in the UK, ECB decision and potential approach the finish line in the first phase of negotiations between the US and China. We will take these matters up one by one. In Britain, parliamentary elections were held. The conservatives, led by current Prime Minister Boris Johnson, confidently won. This victory quite radically changes the political alignment in Britain, but for us, it is interesting primarily for Brexit. In this case, our basic version worked out perfectly: the “soft” Brexit option will be implemented based on the current version of the agreement between the EU and the UK. Naturally, the pound pulled up amid such results. Recall that in our reviews this week we actively recommended buying it. So congratulations to those of our readers who listen to our recommendations, with excellent results. The ECB yesterday expectedly left monetary policy parameters unchanged. And the volume of the asset buyback program (quantitative easing) remained at the level of 20 billion euros. The new head of the Central Bank Christine Lagarde said that the slowdown in the Eurozone economy has stopped. She could have been trusted, if not for yesterday’s data on industrial production in the Eurozone, which showed a decrease of 0.5%. As for the other her statements, it is worth noting the intention to revise the ECB's monetary policy strategy, but some details will become clear not earlier than from the beginning of the next year. But this did not contribute to the growth of the euro today. Brexit is a problem not only in the UK but also in the Eurozone. Accordingly, its resolution is positive for the euro too. Yesterday we could observe the sales in yen pairs and gold, that is, in safe-haven assets. This sale was based on Trump's tweet that the United States came close to a deal with China. Today we will buy safe-haven assets: first of all, sell EURJPY and USDJPY as a less risky option, but we will also look for points for buying gold. Recall, on December 15, the United States may increase duties on goods from China. China will naturally response. Thus, Trump's tweet creates the illusion that there will be no further escalation. If the illusion is dispelled, it will provoke a sharp increase in demand for safe-haven assets.
Long
by Trade24Fx
THE CASE FOR TRUMPIt’s time to talk about Trump, and why I think he’s done a good job at being a president so far. First of all, he is not your usual politician. This is good on two fronts simultaneously. Firstly, he does not have to return favors and kiss asses to the circle of insiders, which one inevitably amasses on one’s way up to the presidency, when doing it a conventional career politician way. And also, because he self funded his campaign, so there was no need to cater to the special interests. Secondly, he does not really care about reelection. And here is why. The guy is 73 years old, he is famous all over the world and he is rich beyond one’s imagining. He had everything life has to offer, so the presidency bid might have started as an epic «why not» thing. The presidency is the icing on the cake for him. He went for it because he could, because he wanted, and also I suspect, being a high profile businessman, he saw the rot that was eating away on the heart of America and I believe he wanted to have something done about it. And he got elected. The icing on the cake was made. So he won already. Even if he goes tomorrow, he’s already won. He will be remembered. That allows him not to worry much about momentary moods of the crowd, press coverage and the rest. So we’ve got a president who can put forward a proper grand vision, whereas the latest presidents were mainly doing minor patchwork instead, when not wrecking the economy of bombing deserts. He might pretend he cares, but that is part of the game if being Trump and his presidency. And on the reelection note: yes, I believe he will be reelected no matter who gets to stand against him. On the solid results: No new wars had been started.No money wasted, no deserts bombed. He attempted to withdraw from Syria and Afghanistan, which is great, given that the US should not have been there in the first place. Pressured enemies diplomatically and finically(Iran, North Korea, Russia, Venezuela) not a single shot fired. A massive win! The economy is great. It is true, Trump inherited a somewhat okay economy, yet, the usual economic cycle was supposed to have ended by the time he became president. We were sliding into the recession. Just look at the SNP500. We were an inch away from the abyss. Yet, with tax cuts, regulations slashed and the general spirits reinvigorated, the market almost doubled in 3 years that Trump is a president. And you can’t take that away from him. Basically, what else do you want? That is already 6 out of 10. With his predecessors scoring 3/10 at best. Good on the domestic policy. Vocally protects 1st and 2nd amendments. Got a fellow conservative into the Supreme Court. The guy has massively shifted the whole political and cultural narratives and the way we see and do things already. He had the balls to shake the rotten house of NATO and make Europe pay its fair share. He had the balls to start a trade feud with China, taking then on the issues that were supposed to be settled 20 years ago. Intellectual property theft, unfair treatment of the western companies, closing its market randomly and manipulating currency. Trump singlehandedly reshaped how the world trades with America. USMCA is coming, Europe will give way. China is holding, but, arguably to its detriment. The need for reining China in was acutely felt long before Trump. Yet, everyone was kicking the can down the road, thinking, not this year. Not in my presidency. The longer you hold the dog, the angrier it gets. He was the only one who let the dog go, and faced the consequences. His unique style of managing relations with the Fed had somewhat taken me aback, at first, yet we need to be wary of the power that we’ve endowed into this closed, unelected, and immensely powerful institution. So agin, challenging status quo, not bad. So here is my brief take on Trump. And, just to make it clear, I am not a Trump fan. I am an independent thinker and when analyzing Trump, I am not comparing him to some abstract theoretical ideal we might have had, but to the real alternatives, the ones we’ve got and the one's we had before. Comment, like, subscribe!
AMEX:SPYLong
by CassidyWaterhouS
18
ORBEX: Trump Triggers Recovery Trade while Pound Soars!In today’s market insights I talk about Trump’s latest comments surrounding the US-Sino rhetoric and why they have triggered a full or partial recovery in risk assets! Watch me analyse risk vs safety using Elliott Waves, as well as the incredible surge in the British pound! It seems that BoJo’s chances to win the elections are cracking fresh multi-month price levels! Will this continue being the case? Timestamps #EURGBP 1D 01:05 #AUDJPY 4H 04:40 Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
by Orbex
Expecting Weakness In Dollar Into Year EndA timely update to the Dollar chart after clearing Fed minutes. Nothing to update after the third cut, Fed front loading the DXY decline over the coming months and quarters. Firstly lets start with our Long-term Dollar chart: Mainstream media selling the orderly brexit resolution and reflationary growth rebound to strategically converge the gap with the US. This is on track to work, a master stroke which will weaken flows into US assets. EUR will benefit as collateral here with global yields higher it is going to squeeze the hand of the over leveraged US market, which will be the start of the turndown in US Equities: I also see EURUSD rallying next year: As widely expected since 2018... For the short-term flows, all eyes on 98.00 as the key level in play for the rest of the year. Expecting market to turn offer into year-end and I target the 96 handle with potential for USD to continue the decline well into 2020. Best of luck all those trading USD, jump into the comments with your ideas and charts!
TVC:DXYShort
by ridethepig
2
Getting ready for the Bank of Canada decisionAs we announced, the demand for safe-haven assets increased significantly this week, which provoked both an increase in gold quotes and a strengthening of the Japanese yen. And if the reason for this was an increase in tariffs on imports to the United States of aluminium and steel from Argentina and Brazil on Monday, then on Tuesday Trump intimidated to introduce an additional 15% of tariffs on Chinese imports in the amount of $ 160 billion on December 15. At the same time, he added that he was not in a hurry and the best time to conclude a trade deal was generally after the 2020 elections. Of course, Trump should not be taken seriously, such his comments are a clear attempt to force China to be more accommodating in the negotiations. Nevertheless, the reaction of investors can be understood. Given that gold may easily grow (50-70 dollars per ounce), it is likely that yesterday's growth is only the beginning. So we continue to recommend looking for points of purchase for safe-haven assets. It is worth noting the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave the rate unchanged, which is generally a positive sign for the Australian dollar. Although its growth potential so far seems limited, it could still grow (50-70 pips), especially against the background of a weak dollar. US employment data from ADP traditionally published on the eve of official statistics is what we are waiting for. Although the level of correlation between ADP and NFP data is insignificant, strong deviations of the data from forecasts may well be flustrating to the markets. The Bank of Canada will announce its decision on monetary policy parameters. We expect the current status quo to be saved. But a change in the nature of the rhetoric of the Central Bank may well provoke a jump in volatility. Recall that our position on the Canadian dollar is to buy. That is, selling a USDCAD above 1.33 is, in our opinion, a great trading idea. The oil market is getting ready for the OPEC meeting. Globally, we remain supporters of oil sales. But for now, until the end of the week we take a break - the meeting may well surprise, but betting on red or black is not our approach, we prefer to work with facts.
Short
by Trade24Fx
Will currency wars replace commodity wars?In general, Monday began quite peacefully. China has been non-aggressive in its response to Trump who has signed into law a bill that supports pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong. And it seemed that we were waiting for another boring day. However, Trump once again showed why we prefer the sale of the dollar for a quite long time. He began the day by accusing Argentina and Brazil of understating their national currencies value to gain a competitive advantage for their products in the US market. In response, the President of the United States raised tariffs on the import of steel and aluminium from these countries. Well, he continued with the Fed’s traditional accusations of overvaluation of the dollar and called on the Central Bank to weaken monetary policy and the dollar. Markets took it as signals for sales of the American currency. Moreover, the buyers on the dollar were not happy with the data on the ISM Index in the US manufacturing sector: 48.1 pips with a forecast of 49.2 pips. Recall that an index value below 50 signals a deterioration in business activity in the US manufacturing sector. Well, returning to Trump and his actions on Monday, in the light of such events, it’s premature to talk about the end of the trade wars. Rather, on the contrary, there is a reason to talk about the transition of trade wars to currency wars with the consequences that maybe even more devastating for the global economy. In general, the future looks rather bleak. In this regard, our recommendations to buy safe-haven assets remain relevant. Our basic positions for today are: finding points for sales of the dollar, purchases of gold and the Japanese yen, sales of oil and the Russian ruble. We also note that while the period of low volatility continues on the foreign exchange market, it is worthwhile to continue aggressive trading on the intraday basis without obvious preferences, for which you can use watch oscillators.
TVC:DXY
by Trade24Fx
ridethepig | NZD 2020 Macro MapA good time to update the roadmap for NZDUSD as we enter into the final chapter of 2019. The market has been heavily short NZDUSD all year, pricing in further cuts from RBNZ, the anticipation of a dovish CB was short-circuited and we are starting to see a reduction in their short positions. This was evident in my previous post: From a strictly macro perspective, NZD is not expected to outperform however the housing market is showing signs of strength as collateral from AUD. I see room for markets to reduce further the over pricing of RBNZ cuts, which will support NZD in the short-medium term. On the USD side, as widely mentioned here and in the Telegram channel, USD weakness is reaching out theatres and will be even more evident in high-beta currencies like NZD. Those following will also know I am long NZD crosses, NZDCAD continues to make a lot of sense with CAD longs being unwound after the dovish BoC. Important to note 

key risks to this trade come from unexpected RBNZ intervention. Good luck all those planning FX trades into 2020. The environment is going to become increasingly difficult as investors position around US election risks, my 2020 FX outlook reports along with other strategy research in the coming weeks. 2020 is setting up for fireworks on the FX board with expectations and valuations starting to diverge and with late cycle concerns creeping back in through the back door to put the cherry on top. For those interested can send a PM on Tradingview.
Long
by ridethepig