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EURUSD Sellers have an advantage towards Trump's Inauguration After carefully following up on US and EURO Zone data. We can positively say that the data has been favorable to the dollar. As at now the Fed has reduced the number of expected cuts this yr while ECB maintains a dovish tone promising a series of cuts even if they are not to be consistent. Also we have seen the NFP Data high and unemployment declining. If Trump maintains his stand on tariffs we should expect the EURO to be hurt.
Short
by WisdomArnold
Trump’s Inauguration: What Lies Ahead?Capping a decisively sweeping victory on 5 November 2024 in what many called a ‘historic comeback’, Republican Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the 47th president of the United States (US) on Monday at 5:00 pm GMT (midday EST). This marks his second run for the highest office. The ceremony is set to take place at the Capitol building. Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts is expected to oversee Trump's oath of office, followed by an inaugural address that the incoming President himself has said will be a message about ‘unity’ – very different from his 2017 speech that portrayed the country as ‘American carnage’. Outgoing president Democrat Joe Biden has said he will attend the ceremony, a courtesy not extended by Trump for the former’s inauguration four years ago. Additionally, and in a break from tradition, world leaders have been invited to the ceremony for the first time, including China's President Xi Jinping. Although he will not be attending, Vice President Han Zheng will do so in his place. In addition to world leaders, several influential figures are expected to attend. Elon Musk confirmed his attendance – who, alongside Vivek Ramaswamy, was recently nominated to head up the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). We can also expect Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, and Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, to be present. What Can We Expect from Trump? Trump has assured the world of a hard-hitting approach towards illegal immigration, which is anticipated to include plans for the mass deportation of undocumented migrants. He stated he ‘will launch the largest deportation program in American history to get the criminals out’. Trade tariffs are another key policy that the global economy can expect, as he is anticipated to increase the protectionist policies his administration introduced in the first term. About a year ago, Trump noted that ‘except for day 1’, he would not be a ‘Dictator’; this, as you would expect, sparked outrage from critics. However, if we know anything about Trump, he has a long – some would say ‘colourful’ – history of making incendiary statements that trigger both support and anger as well as generate a torrent of headlines. Undoubtedly, the first 24 to 48 hours of the Trump administration will be eventful and likely elevate volatility across key asset classes, such as Currencies, Bonds, Stocks, and Commodities. The new government is expected to sign over 100 executive orders on day one. Although not usually as many orders, this is a regular practice for incoming Presidents as part of the transition process. I expect Trump to make a statement on his first day in office that may make ‘a few heads spin’. We will likely observe executive orders directed at a crackdown on the US-Mexico border, along with orders focussing on issues such as energy, trade, and actions affecting Federal workers. Additionally, he is expected to roll back any executive orders initiated by the Biden administration that have not yet been finalised. Markets Ahead of Trump’s Inauguration I do not expect to see much price action ahead of Trump’s big day; however, technically speaking, US dollar (USD) bulls remain in control. According to the US Dollar Index, the USD is on track to finish the week moderately lower, snapping a six-week winning streak. The Team and I have been banging the drum about monthly resistance on the US Dollar Index at 109.33 for a while now. This level entered the fray following a three-month rally just north of the 50-month simple moving average (SMA), currently trading at 101.12. With the Relative Strength Index progressing above the 50.00 centreline (positive momentum), this could eventually nudge the USD beyond current resistance towards the 2022 high of 114.78. As seen from the daily chart of the US Dollar Index, the 200- and 50-day SMAs (at 104.68 and 107.32, respectively) are pointing to the upside; you will also note that price action is comfortable north of both dynamic values and that a Golden Cross (50-day SMA crossing above the 200-day SMA) developed in late 2024 – all of which are considered bullish indications. Current price action is shaking hands with resistance at 109.29 (Quasimodo resistance), and sellers have displayed limited enthusiasm as of writing. Absorbing willing offers here pave the way towards another layer of neighbouring resistance at 110.78 (another Quasimodo resistance), followed by the 2022 pinnacle at 114.78, as mentioned above.
TVC:DXYLong
by FPMarkets
Anticipating 2025Happy new year, traders! A few year-end wobbles not withstanding, Bitcoin has remained steadily within, or just above, the $100k price range over the past weeks. Bears briefly pushed Bitcoin below $90k but the dip was slurped up quickly and Bitcoin bounced upwards. Just as in the summer of 2024, when it was clear that Bulls had run out of steam, the same can be said of Bears in this moment in time. For now, Bulls remain at the wheel. As Bitcoin builds up momentum before hopefully going on the next leg of its cycle growth, the stage is open and capital available for Altcoins to have their moment. So-called 'Boomer Coins' including Litecoin, XRP and others have rallied 30-40%+ over the past week alone. On the other end of the spectrum, memes, AI agent coins in particular, have seen parabolic growth. Market participants are chasing the 'next' pump narrative. But none of the typical 'top' indicators have yet been hit. The Coinbase app is not number 1 in the App Store just yet. From a regulatory perspective, traders are positioning themselves for the incoming pro-crypto Trump administration. As SEC chairman Gary Gensler is handing in his resignation on January 20th, a new crypto-friendly SEC chair, Paul Atkins, is poised to take over once confirmed by the Senate. This will mark a major step-change from an SEC that brought at least 83 enforcement actions against crypto companies such as Coinbase or Uniswap. Macro-wise, the outlook is more mixed. On the one hand, latest US inflation readings have come in soft. That keeps the door open for further Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. On the other, both retail sales and job data came in below expectations underperforming. The impact of possible Trump tariffs on the economy and trading partners such as China, Mexico and the EU is a great unknown that spooks markets. In a worst case scenario, tariffs could hurt partner exports which would result in an overall economic backlash for everyone. Nonetheless, crypto is entering the 2nd year of its Boom Market cycle with more cause for optimism. The regulatory uncertainty is slowly lifting. Institutions including giants such as Blackrock have embraced crypto markets. Beyond the usual noise of crypto markets, Blockchain technology is improving. Areas such as performance, encryption, interoperability and User experience are starting to reach a point where actual adoption becomes feasible. There is certainly a lot to look forward to in 2025. May we all have a great year ahead of us.
Long
by Coinrule
SOL on the edge ETF Decision & Strategic Reserve News to TriggerTechnical Analysis 1. Descending Channel The price has been consolidating within the descending channel since November, consistently bouncing off the upper and lower boundaries. A breakout above the channel would signify a bullish reversal and a possible surge toward higher resistance levels, such as $220 and $240. 2. Current Momentum The price is near the upper boundary of the channel at $204. A successful breakout accompanied by strong volume would confirm a bullish move. 3. Targets After Breakout Immediate target $220 (previous support turned resistance). Extended target $240-$280, depending on momentum and news impact. News/Event Driven Catalysts: 1. Solana ETF Decision The U.S. SEC decision on a Solana ETF within the next 8 days is a crucial factor. If approved, this would open the doors for institutional investment in Solana, significantly increasing demand and price. Historically, ETF approvals for assets have led to sharp price rallies, often breaking technical resistances. 2. Trump’s Strategic Reserve Plans The announcement that the U.S. President-elect is considering cryptocurrencies like Solana for a national reserve creates a bullish sentiment. If implemented, this could position Solana as a strategic asset in the crypto space, attracting major investors and long-term holders. 3. Market Sentiment: Positive news about an altcoin reserve and Solana’s inclusion could further amplify its status as a leading blockchain in the market, pushing prices higher. Potential Scenarios 1. Bullish Scenario (Breakout) If the SEC approves the Solana ETF and positive sentiment continues, the price is likely to break above the channel. Key levels to watch post-breakout: $220 (immediate resistance), $240, and $280. 2. Bearish Scenario (Rejection) If the ETF is rejected or market sentiment turns negative, the price might face rejection at the upper boundary of the channel. Downside levels to watch: $180 (support within the channel) and $165 (channel bottom). This chart and the accompanying news strongly indicate that Solana is at a pivotal moment. Traders should monitor the channel breakout closely and pay attention to ETF-related news and market reactions. With the potential approval of the ETF and increasing institutional interest, Solana could experience a significant rally, making it a key asset to watch in the short term.
Long
by wolfchemist
US100 Trade LogMarket Context: - The CPI session’s top wick aligns with a 4H FVG rejection , signaling a high-probability short setup. Oscillators confirm exhaustion, supporting bearish momentum. Trade Parameters: - Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:2 minimum . - Base Risk: 1% account risk for initial positions. - Additional Risk: Two half-contract size positions added, bringing total risk to between 1% and 2% to capture extended targets if price runs higher. Missed Entry: - Ideal short entry at the 0.5 level of the FVG , confluenced with the daily Kijun resistance. Hesitation led to a missed opportunity. Retracement Importance: - Small retracements, while frustrating, are necessary to sustain upside momentum. They provide clean re-entry points for continuation trades. Conclusion: - Strategic use of added risk positions and focusing on high-probability zones like FVGs and Kijun levels is crucial for optimizing profits.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Fondera
2
THE LIQUIDITY PARADOX: Charting the Macro Environment for 2025WEN QE !? TL;DR there will be NO Quantitative Easing this cycle. YES the markets will still go to Valhalla. LIQUIDITY DRIVES MARKETS HIGHER. FULL STOP. Global M2 has a highly correlated inverse relationship with the US Dollar and 10Y Yield. Hence why we have been seeing the DXY and 10YY go up while Global M2 goes down. THE SETUP We are in a similar setup to 2017 when Trump took office. M2 found a bottom and ramped up, which toppled the DXY. Inflation nearly got cut in half until July 2017, where it then slowly started to creep back up as M2 and markets exploded. To much surprise, all this occurred while the Fed continued to RAISE INTEREST RATES. This was in part due to policy normalization with a growing economy coming out of the financial crisis and having near 0% interest rates for so long. In Q4 2014, the Fed paused QT, keeping its balance sheet near neutral for the next 3 years. As inflation started rising, QT was once again enacted, but very strategically with a slow roll-off in Q4 2017. This allowed markets to push further into 2018. THE PLAYBOOK M2 Global Money Supply: Higher Dollar: Lower Fed Funds Rates: Lower 10YY: Lower Fed Balance Sheet: Neutral Inflation: Neutral TOOLS Tariffs Deregulation Tax Cuts Tax Reform T-Bills HOW COULD WE POSSIBLY WEAKEN THE DOLLAR? Trump has been screaming from the mountain tops; TARIFFS. Tariffs will slow imports and focus more on exports to weaken the dollar. The strong jobs data that has been spooking markets and strengthening the DXY will be revised to show it’s much worse than numbers are showing. The Fed will pause QT, saying it has ample reserves, but not enable QE. At the same time, they could pause interest rate cuts to keep a leash on markets and not kickstart inflation. Then once all the jobs data is revised and markets get spooked at a softened economy (Q2), they will continue cutting. WHY DOES THE FED KEEP CUTTING RATES EVEN WITH A STRONG ECONOMY? In short, the Fed has to cut interest rates for the US to manage its debt. THE US government is GETTEX:36T in debt. In 2025, interest projections are well above $1T. That would put the debt on par with the highest line items in the national budget such as social security, healthcare and national defense. The Treasury manages its debt by issuing securities with various maturities. When rates are low, they can refinance or issue new debt. As rates rise, the cost of servicing debt increases, and vice versa. It’s one of the underlying reasons why the Fed cut (but no one will say it out loud)… hence why everyone is so confused and screaming that they cut too early and the bond vigilantes have been revolting. HOW DOES THE MONEY SUPPLY GO UP IF NO QUANTITATIVE EASING? We’ve seen this before. President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have been telling you their playbook. In 2017, deregulation and tax cuts led to an increase in disposable income from individuals and corporations. Banks created more money in the markets through lending based on increased economic activity. Global liquidity increased in other major central banks like the ECB, BOJ, and PCOB who were still engaged in QE, and / or maintained very low interest rates, which created more liquidity in the US money supply. We’re seeing the same thing now with Central Banks around the world. The tax reform allowed for the repatriation of overseas profits at a lower tax rate, which brought a significant amount of cash back to the US. Like 2017, the US Treasury will increase short-term bill issuance (T-Bills), providing an alternative to the Reverse Repo (RRP), which reduces RRP usage. This provides liquidity to the markets because once the T-bills mature, funds can use the proceeds to invest in other assets, including stocks. Banks will buy T-bills and sell in the secondary market or hold til maturity, where they can then lend the cash or invest in equities. Another strategy to inject cash into the banking system would be standard Repo Operations. Here the Fed buys securities from banks with an agreement to sell them back later. This would increase lending and liquidity. Hopefully now you can see why markets DON’T NEED QUANTITATIVE EASING ! That would for sure lead to rampant inflation (see 2021), and blow up the system all over again.
TVC:DXYLong
by jonnieking
Trump Media Target $100 Possible. Days Away from being in OfficeSomething is up with Tiktok, Donald Trump Jr., Elon Musk, Twitter and Facebook meetings with Trump, Trump WILL reward his shareholders, I know this FOR SURE. One of the best buying opportunities I have seen in a long while. I am buying the March $100 call options on any dips. Right now, as we speak, this is pushing the trend resistance at $42.63. Support at $40.00 - Volume is building over the past few weeks. Trump going into office will propel this big.
NASDAQ:DJTLong
by Trance-Man
1
UK GDP less than expected, pound edges lowerThe British pound has edged lower on Thursday. In the European session, GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.2205, down 0.22%. The UK economy climbed out of negative growth for the first time in three months but not by much. After GDP contracted by 0.1% in September and October, November saw a small gain of 0.1%, missing the market estimate of 0.2%. In the three months to November, GDP showed no growth. The small uptick in growth in November was welcome news for the government but the economic outlook is not very bright. The recent "tax and spend" budget will see tax increases take effect in April, including a rise in employer National Insurance contributions. This will hurt the business sector and many firms will cut back on spending and investment, which in turn will dampen economic growth. Inflation remains high and combined with low growth, stagflation is a real danger. Another headache for the government is Donald Trump, who has promised to slap tariffs on US trading partners. The UK is heavily reliant on its export sector and a trade war with the US would be devastating for the fragile UK economy. As well, Trump's protectionist trade polices could lead to higher inflation which could derail much of the progress made to contain inflation. This week's soft UK inflation and GDP reports have raised expectations that the Bank of England will lower interest rates at the next meeting on Feb. 6. In the US, December's inflation release presented a mixed picture, as headline CPI rose for a third straight month, while core CPI eased slightly. Expectations for a rate cut rose in the aftermath of the inflation report, sending the US dollar lower against many of the majors. GBP/USD tested resistance at 1.2242 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 1.2310 1.2176 and 1.2108 are the next support levels
by OANDA
US100 NASDAQ SHORTThe US dollar is broadly firmer, though the Japanese yen is proving a resilient ahead of the BOJ deputy governor's speech Nasdaq slide as key tech stocks get hit All three benchmarks are down for the last two weeks, with tech shares causing most of the damage With the 10-year yield potentially getting to 5%, it’s going to be very hard for the equity market to really gain any meaningful traction here until there’s — at minimum — stability in interest rates Interest rates rise? iN 2025 it will be possible:Inflation, signs of recession.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by DaveBrascoFX
Can DJT Trump Media & Technology Group Hit 171? Hey, trading family DJT from Trump Media & Technology Group is hovering around $42 right now. If we can rally it up to $62.50 and break out of that triangle, we're in for an epic run. We're talking potential jumps to $106, then $142, and if the stars align, we could see $171! With all the buzz around the inauguration, this could be DJT's moment to shine. If you're as excited about this potential breakout as I am, please give this post a boost, leave some love in the comments, or share it around! And if you want to chat more about this or need more trading insights, feel free to DM me or check out my profile for more. Let's watch this one together and see if we can hit those numbers! Kris/Mindbloome Exchange Trade What You See
NASDAQ:DJTLong
by Mindbloome-Trading
13
Can the Dollar Index Predict Global Chaos?In the intricate dance of global finance, the U.S. Dollar Index has emerged as a pivotal player, reaching heights unseen in over two years. This surge, coinciding with Donald Trump's anticipated return to the White House, underscores a market bracing for significant policy shifts. The index's climb is not just a number; it's a beacon reflecting the resilience of the U.S. economy amidst high interest rates and a low unemployment rate, painting a picture of optimism where investors envision a 'goldilocks' scenario under new economic policies. However, this rise is shadowed by tariff threats, hinting at potential global trade disruptions. The depreciation of European currencies against the dollar signals a market in flux, with investors recalibrating their strategies in light of possible protectionist measures. This scenario challenges us to ponder the broader implications: How will these tariffs reshape international trade dynamics, and what does this mean for the global economic order that has favored open trade for decades? The Dollar Index's ascent also prompts a deeper reflection on currency as a barometer of geopolitical stability. With the U.S. potentially stepping into a new era of economic policy, the world watches closely. This moment invites investors and policymakers alike to consider global economic relations' immediate impacts and long-term trajectory. Will this lead to a reevaluation of the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency, or will it strengthen its position amidst global uncertainties? This question is not just about economics; it's about understanding the undercurrents of power and influence in a world at a crossroads.
INDEX:DXYLong
by UDIS_View
Trump and the Impact on the Forex MarketTrump and the Impact on the Forex Market: Which Currencies Are Affected? Donald Trump's election as President of the United States has often had a significant impact on global financial markets, including the forex market, which is particularly sensitive to political, economic and geopolitical developments. Forex is the largest and most liquid market in the world, where currencies are traded in real time, and any global event, such as a presidential election, can generate volatility. In this article, we will analyze the impact that Trump's return to the White House could have on the forex market and which currency pairs could see the most movement. The Context of Trump's Election Donald Trump is known for his economic approach focused on economic nationalism and expansionary fiscal policy. During his previous administration, the focus on tax cuts, deregulation and a trade war with China had a profound impact on global currencies. Trump has also repeatedly expressed his willingness to keep the dollar weak to boost US exports, often criticizing the Federal Reserve for its monetary policies. With his return to the presidency, one could expect a further push towards aggressive economic policies, such as tax cuts, fiscal stimulus and a greater emphasis on protectionism. This could have a knock-on effect on the US dollar and other related currencies. Most Affected Currency Pairs Below, we analyze the major forex pairs that could be most affected by Trump's inauguration: 1. EUR/USD (Euro/US Dollar) The EUR/USD, the most traded pair in the world, is likely to be one of the most volatile. Trump Effect: If Trump continues to push for expansionary fiscal policies, the dollar could weaken in the short term due to expectations of rising government debt. However, in the event of a more hawkish agenda from the Fed, the dollar could strengthen. Geopolitical Focus: Any tensions between the United States and the European Union (related to trade tariffs or regulatory policies) could lead to a depreciation of the euro against the dollar. 2. USD/JPY (US Dollar/Japanese Yen) The Japanese yen, considered a safe haven currency, will be strongly affected. Trump Effect: An increase in global uncertainty or geopolitical tensions could strengthen the yen against the dollar. However, a rise in US Treasury yields could push the dollar higher. Likely Scenario: Trump's aggressive pro-growth policies could initially weaken the dollar against the yen, but a rise in US interest rates could reverse the trend. 3. USD/CNY (US Dollar/Chinese Yuan) The trade war between the United States and China has been a central focus of the Trump administration. Trump Effect: A return of protectionist policies, such as tariffs on Chinese goods, could lead to a devaluation of the yuan. This could push the USD/CNY pair to new highs, increasing tensions in the Asian markets. Trader Focus: Traders will need to closely monitor Trump’s statements regarding trade relations with China. 4. GBP/USD (British Pound/US Dollar) The British pound will be influenced mainly by post-Brexit trade relations. Trump Effect: If Trump takes a more hawkish approach in relations with the UK, a devaluation of the pound could occur. However, an improvement in Anglo-American trade relations could support a strengthening of the GBP against the dollar. 5. AUD/USD (Australian Dollar/US Dollar) The AUD is often considered a proxy for global growth, given Australia’s dependence on exporting raw materials. Trump Effect: Trade tensions between the US and China could hurt the Australian dollar. However, higher US infrastructure spending could support commodity prices and strengthen the AUD. 6. USD/CHF (US Dollar/Swiss Franc) The Swiss Franc, another safe haven currency, is sensitive to global uncertainties. Trump Effect: If Trump’s inauguration leads to political or economic instability, the CHF could appreciate against the dollar. Thanks for reading this article, as always, if you have any questions, please feel free. Sincerely, Andrea Russo
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
15
XRP IS STILL RANGING!!!!!!!FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK I hope all is well traders. These are the fundamentals/hype that have the XRP community buzzing. 1. Ripple vs SEC Update – Judge Approves Sealing of Key Documents 2. Gary Gensler, the Chairman of the SEC, has announced his resignation effective at noon on January 20, 2025 3. CEO Brad Garlinghouse met with President-elect Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago on January 7 The approval of sealing key documents definitely brings huge buzz for the community. In my personal opinion, if you are willing to hide any type of information then it is considered ALPHA. What kind of alpha that might be? Only the judge will ever know but if they are insisting on sealing some information then best believe it has pivotal data (technology, price predictions, future involvement with other companies/tech etc). Gary Gensler leaving will also “potentially” send XRP to new highs since he was the main catalyst on why crypto was heavily regulated. There is a probability that price will sky rocket on 1/20 which on a technical outlook agrees (bias wise) to that theory. Now Brad Garlinghouse having dinner with the Donald Trump also has everyone going crazy. I see this both bullish and bearish as sometimes making it too obvious is too obvious. However this meet up gives positive conviction on the SEC vs RIPPLE case finally ending. As you can see, there is a bunch of moves being made with positive speculation but the charts will always tell it all. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK We are still ranging. On a technical standpoint price has not made any significant changes to give us a conviction for price to reach ATH. With that being said, this price action translates to the whales moving price sideways in order to prepare for the following big dates (SEC vs RIPPLE outcome and or Gary Genslers date of resignation). With those 2 major headlines weeks away, we can theorize that this accumulation is being created for this next leg up/down. As for my approach portfolio wise, I will be observing on the sidelines with my active buy limit orders on standby. Pro tip: This is a unit game, accumulate as much UNITs as you can because UNITs will buy you FREEDOM. As always, trade safe. Mr.Oazb
BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
by MROAZB
TRU or TRUfi Chart predictionTRU is in a multi-month support zone. You can buy more TRU at $0.077. Hold term - Long Term. Future Potential: TRUFi's decentralized finance (DeFi) platform enables efficient and transparent borrowing and lending. As the DeFi ecosystem grows, TRU could play a crucial role in addressing liquidity issues and offering financial services to the unbanked. Latest News: TRUFi Partners with Major Financial Institution for Increased Liquidity The SEC alleges that nearly half a billion dollars in TrueUSD (TUSD) is not properly backed, affecting pairs on major exchanges like Binance, Bybit, Gate.io, and Bitget. TrueUSD is accused of using phony attestation reports, having opaque ownership structures, and secretly investing backing assets in risky, illiquid ventures. The SEC's complaint suggests that since March 2020, TrueUSD's "commodity fund" misappropriated user funds, with 99% of TUSD's backing assets being illiquid as of this month. Major investors like a16z, BlockTower, and Alameda Research invested $12.5 million in TrueUSD's governance token, TRU, despite the alleged misappropriation. Binance listed TrueUSD and later made it the only stablecoin with fee-free trading, leading to $1.5 billion in TUSD mints, which the SEC claims were never fully backed. The article emphasizes the need for radical transparency in the crypto industry to prevent fraud and suggests continuous scrutiny of major projects to avoid reliance on regulatory bodies like the SEC for cleanup.
COINBASE:TRUUSDLong
by osodatsismoso
Sterling sliding, Fed worried about TrumpThe British pound is on a nasty slide and has lost 1.8% since Monday. In the European session, GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.2294, down 0.53%. Earlier, the pound fell as low as 1.2237 (1%), it lowest level since Nov. 2023. The latest setback for the pound was Thursday's British Retail Consortium (BRC) Shop Price index, which came in at -1% in December, lower than the November reading of -0.4% and the market estimate of -0.6%. This was the lowest level since July 2021. This points to weaker consumer spending, a key engine of the economy. The BRC has projected that food inflation will continue to accelerate, which will add to the squeeze that weary consumers are feeling from inflation and high interest rates. The UK government introduced a "tax  and spend" budget last October but retailers have argued that this recipe will lead to retail job cuts and higher prices. The Federal Reserve minutes of the December meeting, released on Wednesday, indicated that policy makers were concerned about the upside risk to inflation, particularly due to incoming President-elect Trump's potential trade and immigration policies. Trump has promised to slap punishing tariffs on US trade partners, including China. Trump has also called for mass deportations of illegal immigrants. The minutes did not mention Trump by name but there was no doubt that Fed members had Trump in mind. Members noted their concern that inflation could rise due to "the likely effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy". Members also indicated that the Fed was "at or near the point" of slowing the pace of easing. After starting the easing cycle with a jumbo rate cut of 50 basis points, the Fed has delivered back-to-back cuts of 25 basis points. At the December meeting, the Fed lowered its rate forecast for 2025 to two cuts, down from four in the September forecast. After the December meeting, the currency markets reacted sharply to the revised forecast and the US dollar shot up against the majors. The Fed again sounded hawkish in the minutes but this time the US dollar showed little movement against the majors, with the exception of GBP/USD. GBP/USD is testing support at 1.2292. Below, there is support at 1.2220 1.2393 and 1.2465 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA