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The Illusion of Value: How the U.S. Market Became a Fantasy EconThe Illusion of Value: How the U.S. Market Became a Fantasy Economy For decades, the American economy has been celebrated as the epicenter of innovation, wealth creation, and corporate success. But beneath the surface, an unsettling reality has emerged: The U.S. financial markets are increasingly driven by speculation, hype, and a distorted sense of value. "Buy Now, Pay Later"—A Culture of Delusion One of the most glaring symptoms of this detachment from reality is the widespread adoption of "Buy Now, Pay Later" (BNPL) services. A staggering number of American consumers have embraced debt-financed spending as a normal part of life. Credit cards are no longer the primary vehicle for financial mismanagement—BNPL systems have convinced people they can afford luxuries they fundamentally cannot. This mentality, in turn, feeds into the stock market’s obsession with future promises over actual output. Investors have become infatuated with narratives rather than numbers, driving valuations to unrealistic highs for companies that either underdeliver or simply do nothing at all. The MicroStrategy Paradox: Borrowing Money to Buy Bitcoin Take MicroStrategy, for example—a company whose sole business model seems to be leveraging borrowed capital to buy Bitcoin. By traditional metrics, MicroStrategy offers no tangible product, no innovative service, no groundbreaking technology—just speculative accumulation. Yet, thanks to Bitcoin hype, its stock price is valued as if it’s a revolutionary player in the corporate world. This irrational valuation mirrors the broader issue with American markets: Companies are being rewarded not for what they actually do, but for the financial games they play. The Myth of Overvalued Titans: Tesla & Meta Tesla and Meta serve as the poster children of speculative overvaluation. - Tesla: Once hailed as an automotive disruptor, Tesla’s stock price often reflects what Elon Musk promises rather than what Tesla delivers. From self-driving software that never fully materialized to mass production goals that fell flat, Tesla’s ability to sustain its valuation relies more on Musk’s cult-like following than automotive success. Meanwhile, the gutting of regulatory oversight has allowed Tesla to push unfinished, potentially hazardous products into the market. - Meta: Meta’s valuation has ballooned largely on the promise of virtual reality dominance. Yet, billions poured into the Metaverse have yielded little beyond overpriced VR headsets and gimmicky social spaces. Elon Musk: The Master of Market Manipulation Elon Musk’s influence on financial markets cannot be overstated. Through cryptic tweets, grand promises, and regulatory maneuvering, Musk has become a force powerful enough to shift markets with mere words. Whether it’s pumping Dogecoin, slashing Tesla’s safety oversight, or influencing government policy for personal gain, Musk operates in a reality where market value is dictated by his persona rather than corporate fundamentals. The Rise of True Value Markets While the U.S. economy indulges in financial fantasy, other global markets have started to present compelling opportunities: - Europe: A more realistic, fundamentals-based approach to valuation is emerging. Traditional industries remain resilient, and companies must show actual profitability to attract investment. - China: Despite regulatory challenges, China’s focus on industrial production, technological advancement, and infrastructure development gives its economy a sense of tangible progress. - UK & Australia: Unlike the speculative U.S. markets, these economies remain grounded in earnings, productivity, and rational valuations. Conclusion The American financial landscape has become a speculative playground detached from reality. Companies are valued not for what they produce, but for what they promise, what they borrow, and what narratives they spin. Figures like Musk exploit market sentiment, while deregulation enables corporations to operate recklessly. As Europe, China, the UK, and Australia foster economies built on real value, the U.S. is at risk of crashing under the weight of its illusions. SP:SPX TVC:DXY INDEX:BTCUSD TVC:GOLD NASDAQ:MSTR NASDAQ:TSLA NYSE:BLK NASDAQ:META XETR:DAX FTSE:UKX TVC:HSI SET:SQ NASDAQ:PYPL NASDAQ:AFRM NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:AMZN NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:COIN NASDAQ:HOOD
SP:SPXShort
by CassianDrake
2
$TRUMPUSDT Breakout Alert!$TRUMP has officially broken above its descending trendline after holding firm support around $11.8. The price also reclaims the 100 EMA (orange line), signaling strength and potential for a trend reversal. 📈 Technical Highlights: Downtrend breakout confirmed ✅ Retest of resistance turned support around $13.3 ✅ Targets in sight: • TP1: $16.52 • TP2: $21.04 • TP3: $26.35 This breakout setup remains valid as long as TRUMPUSDT holds above $13.3. A clean trendline flip often leads to explosive follow-throughs.
Long
by persis10t
Bitcoin: The Robot Taxi Driver We Didn’t NeedWhy Blockchain Is Driving the Future Without It In the 1990 sci-fi classic Total Recall, Arnold Schwarzenegger’s character hails a futuristic taxi only to be greeted by “Johnny Cab”—a creepy, clunky robot driver that awkwardly talks while struggling to navigate. Back then, audiences imagined a future where robotic taxi drivers would be commonplace. But instead, we got something far superior: fully autonomous, self-driving cars that render robot drivers unnecessary. The same is happening with Bitcoin. It was revolutionary, sure—but much like Johnny Cab, it’s outdated, inefficient, and rapidly becoming irrelevant in a world driven by advanced blockchain technology. Bitcoin: The Nostalgic First Step When Bitcoin burst onto the scene, it felt groundbreaking—just like the idea of robot taxi drivers in the Total Recall era. It gave us a new way to transact, free from centralized banks. People were thrilled, seeing it as the future of money. But here’s the problem: Bitcoin was never the endgame. It was merely the proof-of-concept—like Johnny Cab showing that, yes, you can put a robot behind the wheel… but does that mean we should? As financial systems evolved, Bitcoin’s shortcomings became glaringly obvious: ✅ Slow transaction speeds ✅ High fees ✅ Lack of scalability ✅ Energy inefficiency Meanwhile, blockchain technology—the real revolution—kept advancing, proving that we don’t actually need Bitcoin any more than we needed Johnny Cab. Enter Blockchain: The Self-Driving System Self-driving cars didn’t need robot taxi drivers, and blockchain doesn’t need Bitcoin. Blockchain is the foundation—an autonomous, self-sustaining system that underpins everything from finance to supply chains to digital assets. In fact, precious metals, equities, and commodities are all moving toward digitization—but not through Bitcoin. Instead, they’re being integrated directly into blockchain-based ecosystems that offer seamless, smart contract-driven transactions. The result? 💨 Faster 💡 More efficient 🛠️ Scalable & adaptable Bitcoin, on the other hand, is stuck in the past. It’s clunky, expensive, and increasingly unnecessary—just like a robot taxi driver frantically punching buttons while self-driving cars smoothly navigate the streets. Why Bitcoin Will Be Left Behind Much like how we skipped the “robot taxi driver phase” and went straight to autonomous vehicles, the financial world will soon skip Bitcoin entirely as blockchain technology takes over. Everything digital is moving toward streamlined, automated systems—systems that don’t require Bitcoin as an intermediary. So the real question isn’t, “Will Bitcoin survive?” It’s: “Why would we even need it?” Just like Johnny Cab in Total Recall, Bitcoin might be fun to look back on—but it’s not the future. Blockchain is the self-driving car. Bitcoin is the unnecessary robot driver. And in a world that values efficiency, guess which one we’re leaving behind? 🚗💨 INDEX:BTCUSD CRYPTO:BTCUSD NASDAQ:COIN NASDAQ:MSTR NASDAQ:MARA TVC:GOLD TVC:SILVER TVC:DXY SP:SPX NYSE:BLK NASDAQ:TSLA NYSE:GME INDEX:ETHUSD CRYPTO:XRPUSD CRYPTO:ADAUSD
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by CassianDrake
Russell 2000: Looking Past the Short-term VolatilityCME: Micro E-Mini Russell 2000 Index Futures ( CME_MINI:M2K1! ) On Saturday, May 3rd, Warren Buffett took the center stage of the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting. “What has happened in the last 30, 45 days … is really nothing,” declared the “Oracle of Omaha”. Buffett brushed off recent stock market volatility that has rattled investors over the past weeks. “This has not been a dramatic bear market or anything of the sort,” he said. In April, U.S. stock market took a deep dive after the start of Reciprocal Tariff against all U.S. trading partners. A few days later, we witnessed spectacular rally with a record daily gain, as a 90-day tariff pause was announced. On May 2nd, the S&P 500 completed a 9-day winning streak, the longest in 20 years. After a month-long rollercoaster ride, the U.S. stock market is back to where it started. If an investor bought stocks in the beginning of April and then slept for the whole month, he wakes up today and may not even notice any changes in his portfolio. Sunny Days ahead after the Storm I concur with Buffet’s assessment that the U.S. economy is fundamentally strong. The supply chain disruptions are painful and will lead to product shortage, higher prices and layoffs in affected industries. However, trade conflicts will be resolved in a few months. The U.S. will be in a strengthening position, making its economy more sustainable. The U.S. economy contracted 0.3% in Q1 2025, the first negative reading since 2022, according to the Commerce Department. However, the underlying data is much better if you look past the headline. The formula: GDP = C + I + G + (X - M), where: • C is consumer spending; I is investment by private business • G is government spending; (X-M) is the net of exports minus imports The key driver of the negative GDP is Imports. US buyers front-run the tariffs with massive orders, resulting in a 41.3% increase in imports. We also see a 21.9% gain in investment, primarily the result of US businesses building up inventory with imported goods. • Imports and Investment contribute -4.83% and +3.6% to Q1 GDP, respectively. Both are one-time events and should not be taken as a long-term trend. • Consumer spending grew 1.8% in Q1, contributing to 1.21% of GDP. Government spending contracted 1.4% in Q1, contributing to -0.25% of GDP. Real Story: Q1 constant dollar GDP is +3.5%. By using a price deflator of 3.7%, the government reports a -0.3% “Real GDP at seasonally adjusted annual rates.” Separately, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (“BLS”) reported that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 177,000 in April, beating market expectations. The April unemployment rate was 4.2%, in line with expectations. The above data supports my assessment of a solid U.S. economy. Once we walk past the tariff fear, the stock market will likely resume its growth. Small Firms May Benefit More from New Trade Policies A global supply chain helps corporate giants source from the most efficient and lowest cost suppliers. Small businesses may not be so lucky. Take the US textile industry as an example, the BLS data shows that 80% of domestic jobs have been lost since 2000. The "de minimis" exemption is an import loophole that allows overseas packages under $800 to come into the U.S. duty-free. According to BLS data, e-commerce giants like Amazon, Shein and Temu source 80-90% of their products from overseas. Closing the "de minimis" loophole and enacting fairer trade deals will help domestic manufacturers. By shielding from low-cost import dumping, a revitalized US manufacturing industry may not be far fetching. Of the four major US market index, Russell 2000 performed the worst, flat in the last twelve months. Based on my analysis above, the Small Cap Russell index may have a better growth outlook compared to blue-chip indices. Trade Setup with CME Micro E-Mini Russell 2000 Index Futures Traders who take a bullish view in Small Cap could buy the Micro Russell Futures (M2K). M2K contracts have a notional value of $5 times the index value. With Friday settlement price of $2042.70, each September contract (M2KU5) has a notional value of $10,213.5. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $932 at the time of writing. The reason for selecting the September contract rather than the more liquid June contract is the time it takes to negotiate trade deals. While some trading partners may reach agreement within the 90-day window, others may not. Micro Russell futures (M2K, $5) contracts tap into the deep liquidity of E-Mini Russell futures contracts (RTY, $50). As of last Friday, RTY has an open interest (OI) of 457,283 contracts, while the OI for M2K is 41,563, according to data from CME Group. The risk of long Russell futures is a decline in the index. To hedge against the downside risk, a trader could set up a stop-loss in his buy order. Hypothetically, a trader enters a buy order of M2KU5 at $2050 with a stoploss at $1950. • If the Russell goes up 10% to 2,255, the trade will gain $1,025 (= (2255-2050) * 5). The theoretical return is 110% (= 1025/932). This is 10 times bigger than the gain in the underlying index, thanks to the leverage built into the futures contracts • If the Russell falls 10% to 1,845, the maximum loss with be $500 (= (2050-1950) * 5). This is less than the initial margin of $932 and the trader will not face a margin call. The loss is limited even if your view is incorrect, thanks to the stoploss feature Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:RTY1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
Bitcoin - Bitcoin on the Road to $100,000?!Bitcoin is in its descending channel on the four-hour timeframe, between EMA50 and EMA200. If Bitcoin moves downward towards the specified demand zone, we can look for its next buying opportunities. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy in the demand range. In April, Bitcoin recorded a growth of 14.7%, successfully rebounding from a sharp early-month decline that had dragged its price down to $74,901. This level marks Bitcoin’s lowest price point in 2025 so far. U.S. President Donald Trump, in an interview with NBC News, responded to growing concerns about a possible economic recession by saying that everything would be “fine.” He referred to the current phase as a “transitional period” and expressed confidence that the U.S. economy would perform “extraordinarily well.” When asked directly if he feared a recession, Trump replied, “No,” though he added, “Anything is possible, but I believe we are headed toward having the greatest economy in our nation’s history.” On the other hand, Ethereum ended April with a 1.58% decline—marking its fifth consecutive month of losses. Over the past year, Ethereum has only seen gains in three months, and it is currently down 36.7% compared to the same period last year. Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, announced its intention to invest up to $84 billion in Bitcoin. The funds will be raised evenly through stock issuance ($42 billion) and debt securities ($42 billion). In the first quarter of 2025, Strategy reported a profit of $5.8 billion from its Bitcoin investments, achieving a return of 13.7%. The company has also raised its annual targets, increasing its projected Bitcoin return from 15% to 25% and its dollar profit goal from $10 billion to $15 billion.Meanwhile, the short-term holder profit/loss ratio for Bitcoin has returned to a neutral level of 1.0, indicating balance between coins held at a profit and those at a loss. Historically, this level has often served as resistance during bearish phases. If prices remain above this point, it could signal strengthening momentum and a potential market recovery. Elsewhere, reports indicate that Apple has violated a previous antitrust ruling by continuing to restrict users from accessing alternative payment methods outside of the App Store. The decision, issued by Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers, now requires Apple to allow apps—including those related to crypto and NFTs—to operate without paying fees or seeking special approval. This ruling immediately strips Apple of its ability to collect commissions on out-of-app purchases and prohibits the company from monitoring or tracking such transactions.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
GOLD Follows "Buy The Dip" Mode, Being Supported by 200-hour SMAGold prices have experienced significant volatility over the last days, with conflicting reports on the current trend. According to some sources, gold prices have increased, with spot gold reaching $3,500 per troy ounce, new all the history high on Tuesday, April 22, 2025. The $3,500 milestone has sparked increased interest from investors and market analysts, meaning that Gold spot doubled in price over the past 5 years, 3rd time in history ever. Despite the short-term volatility, gold has shown a strong performance since the beginning of 2025, with an increase of approximately 30-35% year-to-date. Market analysts remain bullish on gold, with some forecasting prices to reach $ 4'000 per ounce in the near term. The main 1-hour graph indicates on 200-hours SMA technical support, with further upside opportunity due to forming on the chart descending triangle (flat bottom/ descending top) breakthrow. -- Best #GODL wishes, Your Beloved @PandorraResearch Team 😎
RUS:GDM2025
by PandorraResearch
Trump token bullishKey Levels: The main resistance is at 10.40 dollars , and the main support is at 7.71 dollars . The descending trendline keeps the price below it, and the 200-period moving average above the price confirms the bearish trend . Closer Zones: A nearby resistance is observed at 8.06 dollars, overlapping with the trendline. The closer support is at 7.71 dollars. A break above 8.06 dollars could push the price toward 9.60 dollars . Intermediate Level: On the way up, the 8.25 dollars level acts as an intermediate resistance. Target: Based on the previous move of 2.50 dollars, the potential upside target is around 9.60 dollars . Conclusion: A breakout above the nearby resistance could signal a weakening bearish trend and the start of an upward move .
Long
by EhsanZeydabadi
2
TRUMP price analysis✊ At the end of March, we last wrote about #Trump and “looked like water” predicting a price drop to $7-7.20 if the “great and brilliant leader” did not stop doing stupid things.... but then came the April sanctions... We can comment and discuss it for a long time, but it's no use - you can't get the rust out of the metal or out of your head... It was interesting on 19.04 - when a large unlock of 40 million #Trump coins took place and participants expected the price dump to continue.... but no... and already on 23.04 - the news comes out that #Trump will have dinner with the largest holders of his token and, oh, miracle = 75% of the OKX:TRUMPUSDT price pump There are already jokes on Twitter that the TOP-5 holders will be able to choose to who will be the next to set or remove abnormal taxes during dinner) But seriously, there is every chance that the #TRUMUSDC price pump will continue and God grant us patience to keep and hold this small amount of #Trump coins to $24-$32 or maybe to $40... _____________________ Did you like our analysis? Leave a comment, like, and follow to get more
by P_S_trade
4
Canadian Dollar vs. US Dollar. The Spring Is Compressing.In previous posts, we have already begun to look at the key drivers of the US outperformance over the past decade. The US market dominance has been largely driven by the rapid rise of tech giants (such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet), which have benefited from strong profit growth, global market reach and significant investor inflows. Unsatisfactory International Performance Markets outside the US have faced headwinds including multiple stifling sanctions and tariffs, slowing economic growth, political uncertainty (especially in Europe), a stronger US dollar and the declining influence of high-growth tech sectors. The Valuation Gap By 2025, US equities will be considered relatively expensive compared to their international peers, which may offer more attractive valuations in the future. Recent Shifts (2025 Trend) Since early 2025, international equities have begun to outperform the S&P 500, and European and Asian equities have regained investor interest. Global market currencies are also widely dominated by the US dollar. Factors include optimism around the following three big themes. DE-DOLLARIZATION. DE-AMERICANIZATION. DIVERSIFICATION. De-dollarization is the process by which countries reduce their reliance on the US dollar (USD) as the world's dominant reserve currency, medium of exchange, and unit of account in international trade and finance. This trend implies a shift away from the central role of the US dollar in global economic transactions to alternative currencies, assets, or financial systems. Historical context and significance of the US dollar The US dollar became the world's primary reserve currency after World War II, as enshrined in the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944. This system pegged other currencies to the dollar, which was convertible into gold, making the dollar the backbone of international finance. The United States became the world's leading economic power, and the dollar replaced the British pound sterling as the dominant currency for global trade and reserves. The dollar has been the most widely held reserve currency for decades. As of the end of 2024, it still accounts for about 57% of global foreign exchange reserves, far more than the euro (20%) and the Japanese yen (6%). However, this share has fallen from over 70% in 2001, signaling a gradual shift and prompting discussions about de-dollarization. How De-Dollarization Works Countries looking to reduce their reliance on the dollar are pursuing several strategies: Diversifying reserves: Central banks are holding fewer U.S. dollars and increasing their holdings of other currencies, such as the euro, yen, British pound, or new alternatives such as the Chinese yuan. While the yuan's share remains small (about 2.2%), it has grown, especially among countries like Russia. Using alternative currencies in trade: Countries are entering into bilateral or regional agreements to conduct trade in their own currencies rather than using the dollar as an intermediary. For example, China has introduced yuan-denominated oil futures (the "petroyuan") to challenge the petrodollar system. Increasing gold reserves: Many countries, including China, Russia and India, have significantly increased their purchases of gold as a safer reserve asset, reducing their dollar holdings. Developing alternative financial systems: Some countries and blocs, such as BRICS, are working to develop alternatives to the US-dominated SWIFT payment system to avoid the risk of sanctions and gain true economic and political independence. Reasons for de-dollarization The move towards de-dollarization is driven by geopolitical and economic factors: Backlash against US economic hegemony: The US often uses dollar dominance to impose sanctions and exert political pressure, encouraging countries to seek financial sovereignty. Rise of new economic powers: Emerging economies like China and groups like the BRICS are seeking to reduce their vulnerability to U.S. influence and promote regional integration and alternative financial infrastructures. Geopolitical tensions: Conflicts like the war in Ukraine have intensified efforts by countries like Russia to remove the dollar from their reserves to avoid sanctions. Implications and outlook While the dollar remains dominant, a more de-dollarized world is already changing global economic power. The U.S. may lose some advantages, such as lower borrowing costs and geopolitical influence. For the U.S. economy, de-dollarization could lead to a weaker currency, higher interest rates, and reduced foreign investment, although some effects, such as inflation from a weaker dollar, could belimited . For other countries, de-dollarization could mean greater economic independence and less exposure to U.S. policy risks. However, no currency currently matches the dollar’s ​​liquidity, stability, and global recognition, so a full transition is unlikely in the near future . Summary De-dollarization is a complex, ongoing process that reflects a gradual shift away from the global dominance of the U.S. dollar. It involves diversifying reserves, using alternative currencies and assets, and creating new financial systems to reduce dependence on the dollar. Driven by geopolitical tensions and the rise of emerging economic powers, de-dollarization challenges the entrenched role of the dollar but is unlikely to completely replace it anytime soon. Instead, it is leading to a more multipolar monetary system in international finance, increasing demand for alternative investments to the U.S. Technical task The main technical chart is presented in a quarterly breakdown, reflecting the dynamics of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar FX_IDC:CADUSD in the long term. With the continued positive momentum of the relative strength indicator RSI(14), flat support near the level of 0.70 and a decreasing resistance level (descending top/ flat bottom) in case of a breakout represent the possibility of price growth to 0.80, with the prospect of parity in the currency pair and strengthening of the Canadian dollar to all-time highs, in the horizon of the next five years. -- Best wishes, Your Beloved @PandorraResearch Team 😎
by PandorraResearch
Tears of Liberty. Lets Make America Sell Again.Over the past decade, the U.S. stock market has significantly outperformed global stock markets excluding the United States. This divergence in returns has been one of the defining features of global investing since 2015, with U.S. equities—especially large-cap technology stocks—driving much of the outperformance. Annualized Returns (2015–2025) AMEX:SPY , S&P 500 Index(U.S.): The S&P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 13.8% over the past ten years. NASDAQ:ACWX , MSCI All World ex U.S. (Rest of World): Global stocks outside the U.S. returned an average of 4.9% annually over the same period Year-by-Year Breakdown Year | SPX | World ex U.S. | U.S. Surplus 2024 23.9% 4.7% +19.2% 2023 23.8% 17.9% +5.8% 2022 -19.6% -14.3% -5.4% (!) 2021 26.6% 12.6% +14.0% 2020 15.8% 7.6% +8.2% 2019 30.4% 22.5% +7.9% 2018 -6.6% -14.1% +7.5% 2017 18.7% 24.2% -5.5% (!) 2016 9.8% 2.7% +7.1% 2015 -0.7% -3.0% +2.3% Key Drivers of Performance U.S. Outperformance The U.S. market’s dominance was driven largely by the rapid growth of technology giants (such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet), which benefited from strong earnings growth, global market reach, and significant investor inflows. International Underperformance Non-U.S. markets faced headwinds such as multiply choking sanctions and tariffs, slower economic growth, political uncertainty (notably in Europe), a stronger U.S. dollar, and less exposure to high-growth technology sectors. Valuation Gap By 2025, U.S. stocks are considered relatively expensive compared to their international counterparts, which may offer more attractive valuations going forward. Recent Shifts (2025 Trend): As of early 2025, international stocks have started to outperform the S&P 500, with European and Asian equities seeing renewed investor interest. Factors include optimism over economic recovery in China and strong performance in European defense and technology sectors. Long-Term Perspective Historical Context While the past decade favored U.S. equities, this has not always been the case. For example, during the 2000s, international stocks outperformed the U.S. following the dot-com bust. Market Weight The U.S. accounts for roughly 60% of global stock market capitalization and about 25% of global GDP, so its performance has a substantial impact on global indices. Conclusion From 2015 to 2025, the U.S. stock market delivered nearly triple the annualized returns of global markets excluding the U.S., primarily due to the outperformance of large-cap technology stocks. While this trend has persisted for most of the decade, early 2025 shows signs of a potential shift, with international equities beginning to close the performance gap. Investors should remain aware of valuation differences and the cyclical nature of global market leadership. The main technical chart for U.S./ ex U.S. ratio indicates the epic reversal is in progress.
AMEX:SPY
by PandorraResearch
2
S&P 500 Index Goes 'Death Crossed' Again, Due To Unruly EconomyThe "Death Cross" is a technical chart pattern signaling potential bearish momentum in the US stock market, occurring when a short-term moving average (typically the 50-day) crosses below a long-term moving average (usually the 200-day). Despite its foreboding name, historical data shows its implications are often less dire than perceived, serving as a coincident indicator of market weakness rather than a definitive predictor of collapse. Historical Examples and Market Impact The death cross gained notoriety for preceding major market downturns: 2000 Dot-Com Bubble: The Nasdaq Composite’s death cross in June 2000 coincided with the burst of the tech bubble, leading to a prolonged bear market. 2008 Financial Crisis: The S&P 500’s death cross in December 2007 foreshadowed the 2008 crash, with the index losing over 50% of its value by early 2009. 2020 COVID-19 Crash: The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100 all formed death crosses in March 2020 amid pandemic-driven panic, though markets rebounded sharply within months. 2022 Ukraine's War Crisis: The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100 all formed death crosses in March 2022 due to proinflationary surge on Ukraine's war and Arab-Israel conflict, leading to a prolonged bear market within next twelve months, up to March quarter in the year 2023. These examples highlight the pattern’s association with extreme volatility, but its predictive power is inconsistent. For instance, the 2022 death cross in the S&P 500—its first in two years—occurred amid Fed rate hikes and geopolitical tensions, yet the market stabilized within weeks rather than entering a prolonged downturn. Perspectives on Reliability and Use Cases While the death cross reflects deteriorating short-term momentum, its utility depends on context: Lagging Nature: As a lagging indicator, it confirms existing trends rather than forecasting new ones. The 50-day average crossing below the 200-day often occurs after prices have already declined. False Signals: Post-2020 data shows the S&P 500 gained an average of 6.3% one year after a death cross, with Nasdaq Composite returns doubling typical averages six months post-cross. Combined Analysis: Traders pair it with metrics like trading volume or MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) to validate signals. Higher selling volume during a death cross strengthens its bearish case. Strategic Implications for Investors For market participants, the death cross serves as a cautionary tool rather than a standalone sell signal: Short-Term Traders: May use it to hedge long positions or initiate short bets, particularly if corroborated by weakening fundamentals. Long-Term Investors: Often treat it as a reminder to reassess portfolio diversification, especially during elevated valuations or macroeconomic uncertainty. Contrarian Opportunities: Historical rebounds post-death cross—such as the 7.2% Nasdaq gain three months after the signal—suggest potential buying opportunities for risk-tolerant investors. Fundamental Challenge Stocks Extend Drop as Powell Sees Economy ‘Moving Away’ From Fed Goals Powell sees economy ‘moving away’ from job, price goals due to Trump's tariff chainsaw. Fed well positioned to wait for policy clarity. Strong jobs market depends on price stability, he adds. Stocks extend declines, bonds rally as Fed chair speaks. Conclusion The "Death Cross" remains a contentious yet widely monitored pattern. Its dramatic name and association with past crises amplify its psychological impact, but empirical evidence underscores its role as one of many tools in technical analysis. Investors who contextualize it with broader market data—such as earnings trends, interest rates, and macroeconomic indicators—are better positioned to navigate its signals. While it may foreshadow turbulence, its historical track record emphasizes resilience, with markets often recovering losses within months of the pattern’s appearance. -- Best wishes, Your Beloved @PandorraResearch Team 😎 // Think Big. Risk Less
SP:SPX
by PandorraResearch
USDJPY LONG FORECAST Q2 W16 D16 Y25USDJPY LONG FORECAST Q2 W16 D16 Y25 Good morning all. It may look like we are holding onto a bias. I can understand why that assumption is created. However, a short position is invalid for FRGNT whilst in a higher time frame order block long. As per, that does not mean LONG blindly. Two set ups illustrated. 1) 15' Break of structure 2) Lower time frame Break of structure without 15' break. Trading is risky. Both positions of course come with a side dish of risk and reason to loose. The question is, would you like to see USDJPY explode long without you? Lets see how price actions plays. FRGNT X
Long
by JCFRGNT
DJT Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-04-15NASDAQ:DJT DJT Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-04-15) Below is a consolidated analysis based on the four reports: ───────────────────────────── SUMMARY OF EACH MODEL’S KEY POINTS • Grok/xAI Report:  – Notes that DJT is trading near its 10‐period EMAs on both the 5‑minute and daily charts.  – Indicates a moderately bullish short‐term outlook (helped by positive news about “Truth Social” investment accounts) even though the max pain is at $19.00.  – Recommends a call option trade (buy naked call) at or near the $20.00 strike with an acceptable premium (~$0.63). • Claude/Anthropic Report:  – The report encountered an error and produced no usable analysis. • Llama/Meta Report:  – Observes that while the 5‑minute chart shows short‐term bullishness (with price above key EMAs), the overall daily picture and max pain theory (targeting $19.00) point toward a slightly bearish bias.  – Suggests trading a put (such as buying the $19.50 put) but notes factors like high daily volatility and mixed indicators. • Gemini/Google Report:  – Provides a nuanced view where the 5‑minute charts show consolidation near $20 while the daily chart’s indicators (RSI, MACD histogram, bullish postive news) favor a moderately bullish move.  – Highlights key liquidity around the $20 strikes and ultimately favors a call trade—leaning toward a slightly out‑of‑the‐money option ($20.50 call) but noting that trade risk should be managed tightly. • DeepSeek Report:  – Summarizes the technical picture with DJT trading above short‐term moving averages but acknowledges max pain at $19.00.  – With a positive news catalyst and falling volatility (VIX), it leans moderately bullish and recommends a call purchase at the $20.00 strike. ───────────────────────────── AREAS OF AGREEMENT AND DISAGREEMENT • Agreement:  – All models note a current price of roughly $19.96 with technical support around the short‐term (near the 10‑period EMA).  – Ea ch analysis recognizes key levels: immediate support near $19.85–$19.94 and resistance around $20.00–$20.50.  – Most models see positive momentum from favorable news (Truth Social catalyst) and improving short‑term indicators.  – Options-chain details (high OI and volume at the $20 strikes) underline the importance of that level. • Disagreement:  – Llama/Meta tilts toward a bearish reading (using daily MACD and max pain theory, expecting a move toward $19.00) and suggests puts rather than calls.  – Strike selection differs slightly—with some reports favoring the ATM $20.00 call (Grok/xAI and DeepSeek) and others suggesting a slightly OTM $20.50 call (Gemini/Google). ───────────────────────────── CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION Overall Market Direction Consensus:  The majority of analyses (three out of four usable models) lean moderately bullish on DJT in the near term. Positive technical momentum on the daily charts together with supportive news outweigh the bearish hints (like max pain and Llama/Meta’s view). Recommended Trade:  – Trade Type: Buy single‑leg, naked call  – Chosen Strike: $20.00 call (weekly option)  – Expiration: 2025‑04‑17  – Entry: At open with an entry price near the ask of $0.63 per contract  – Risk/Reward Targets:   • Profit Target: Approximately a 20% premium gain (rising from $0.63 to about $0.76)   • Stop‑Loss: About 50% loss of the premium (around $0.32)  – Confidence Level: About 70% (reflecting the bullish bias driven by news and short‑term technicals, while remaining cautious of the max pain level) Key Risks & Considerations:  – The max pain at $19.00 may exert downward pressure as expiration nears.  – Short‑term volatility remains high (VIX at 30.12), so the trade will need tight risk management.  – Should DJT fail to break above immediate resistance or show signs of a sharp reversal (e.g. dropping below $19.85), consider exiting early to protect capital. ───────────────────────────── TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format) { "instrument": "DJT", "direction": "call", "strike": 20.00, "expiry": "2025-04-17", "confidence": 0.70, "profit_target": 0.76, "stop_loss": 0.32, "size": 1, "entry_price": 0.63, "entry_timing": "open" }
NASDAQ:DJTLong
by quantsignals
Nasdaq 100 Opens with Bullish GapTrump Exempts Electronics from Tariffs; Nasdaq 100 Opens with Bullish Gap Despite the weekend, the news flow remained intense amid the escalating trade war. According to media reports: → Certain tech products, including those made by Apple, have been exempted from Trump’s tariffs. → Trump announced he would make a significant statement regarding semiconductor tariffs on Monday, 14 April. Stock Indices React to Trump’s Tariff Moves These announcements were taken positively by the markets. As shown on the chart of the Nasdaq 100 index (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen), the new week opened with a bullish gap exceeding 1.5% – a stronger performance than the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), which also saw a bullish gap. This may suggest that market participants are cautiously optimistic that the sweeping tariff measures might be eased through exemptions, delays, or negotiation concessions. Nevertheless, the CNN Business Fear & Greed Index remains in "extreme fear" territory, despite inching higher compared to last week. As of this morning, the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) has recovered approximately 15% from its 2025 low. Technical Analysis: Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) Seven days ago, we plotted an ascending blue channel and suggested that its lower boundary could act as support – which has indeed played out. With the latest data in hand, there is reason to believe that bulls may now be aiming to push the price up toward the channel’s median line. However, as indicated by the arrows on the chart, this median appears to have shifted from acting as support to acting as resistance. Bulls may also face headwinds from the wide bearish candle to the left, which was formed in reaction to Trump's tariff announcements. According to Smart Money Concept methodology, this area – marked by a bearish Fair Value Gap (highlighted with a rectangle) – may now serve as resistance. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:NDQM
by FXOpen
1
USDJPY LONG FORECAST Q2 W16 D14 Y25USDJPY LONG FORECAST Q2 W16 D14 Y25 We caught a the long play for a similar setup. We need more this time around. Why? To be sure of the weekly order block rejection. Compared to EURUSD and EURGBP for example... That is the type of weekly order block rejection we prefer. With that said we will not give up on USDJPY. We simply must await more levels of confluences. 15' break of structure, Order block creation as a result of the BOS. Pull back into area, lower time frame break of structure. Let's see what USDJPY provides us with. FRGNT X
Long
by JCFRGNT
2
BTC 97K Long Target Inverse Head and ShouldersTHIS BLUE NECKLINE IS 100% THE LINE TO FOLLOW Inverse Head And Shoulders Active Long Target - 97,050 What To Expect? Trump's tweets are highly volatility just like the markets so rather then trying to call the exact bottom use this for your bull / bear transition. I'm not saying when it will happen... but above the blue line bullish, below it flip bearish despite it would take a number in the 60Ks to invalidate this target. Downside seems to be the orange support line in 73.8... but money is on 97K sooner than later and this chart staying valid.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by dogdaddevan
6
Trump's Second Term Brings Sharpest Market Decline Since 2001It's gone nearly three months or so... (Duh..? WTF.. less than 3 months, really? 🙀) since Donald Trump entered The White House (again). Those times everyone was on a rush, chatting endless "Blah-Blah-Blah", "I-crypto-czar", "crypto-capital-of-the-world", "we-robot", "mambo-jumbo", "super-duper", AI, VR and so on super hyped bullsh#t. What's happened next? We all know.. mostly all US stocks and crypto markets turned to 'a Bearish Mode', or to at least to 'a Correction' (that is still actual at this time). Here's a short educational breakdown for Nasdaq Composite index NASDAQ:IXIC what we think about all of that, at our beloved 💖 @PandorraResearch Team. Trump's Second Term Brings Sharpest Market Decline Since 2001: Analyzing the recent 15% Stock Market Plunge President Donald Trump's second term has coincided with a dramatic stock market downturn, with the S&P 500 losing approximately 15% of its value since his January 2025 inauguration. This represents the worst start to a presidential term since George W. Bush in 2001 during the dot-com crash. The decline has erased more than $3 trillion in market value, driven primarily by concerns over trade policies, particularly the implementation of new tariffs. Market analysts point to growing fears of potential stagflation—a toxic combination of slow economic growth and high inflation—as investor confidence continues to deteriorate despite pre-election expectations of business-friendly policies. Unprecedented Market Decline Under the New Administration Historical Context of Presidential Market Performance The current market downturn stands out in stark relief when compared to previous presidential transitions. The S&P 500 has fallen nearly 10% in the first 10 weeks since Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025, marking the worst start under a new president since George W. Bush in 2001. This decline is significantly worse than the start of the prior five administrations, with Bush's roughly 18% drop during the dot-com crash being the only steeper decline in recent presidential history. Looking further back, only Richard Nixon experienced a comparable early-term market decline with a 7.2% drop, highlighting the severity of the current situation. When examining presidential market performance metrics, Trump's second term has already distinguished itself negatively. During the first 50 days, the S&P 500 declined by 6.4%, positioning it among the poorest market starts since 1950. By contrast, the best 50-day starts were achieved by John F. Kennedy (up 9.4%), Barack Obama (up 5.7%), and Bill Clinton (up 4.2%), demonstrating how unusual the current market trajectory is in historical context. Magnitude of the Current Decline The scale of market value destruction has been substantial. More than $3 trillion has been erased from the S&P 500's value over approximately 52 trading sessions since Trump's inauguration. By early April 2025, the decline had accelerated to approximately 15% from Inauguration Day, pushing the market dangerously close to bear territory. Market analysts note that if the S&P 500 reaches a 20% decline from its recent peak, it would mark the earliest instance of a bear market during a new administration based on S&P 500 history since 1957. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has suffered even more severely, with declines exceeding 11% by mid-March. This demonstrates the particular vulnerability of growth stocks that had previously led market gains, now facing the most significant corrections. Key Factors Driving the Market Downturn Trade Policy Uncertainty and Tariff Concerns Trade policy, particularly the implementation and threat of tariffs, has emerged as the primary catalyst for market turmoil. The unpredictable nature of these policies has created significant uncertainty for businesses, investors, and consumers alike. Trump's "on-again, off-again approach to tariffs" has effectively extinguished the optimism that initially buoyed markets following his election victory in November 2024. The market decline accelerated dramatically after what was termed the "Liberation Day" event, during which Trump announced plans for unprecedented tariff escalation. Two-thirds of the S&P 500's 15% decline occurred after this announcement, prompting Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research to observe that "Liberation Day has been succeeded by Annihilation Days in the stock market". Fear of Stagflation and Economic Instability Many economists have warned that the new tariffs could reaccelerate inflation at a time when economic growth may be slowing, creating conditions for stagflation. This combination is particularly concerning for investors, as it creates a challenging environment for corporate profitability and economic prosperity. The risk that tariffs could trigger this economic condition has effectively neutralized investor optimism regarding other aspects of Trump's agenda, including potential regulatory reforms and tax reductions. Shift in Market Sentiment The market has undergone a fundamental transformation in sentiment from the period immediately following Trump's election victory to the current environment. Initially, investors had bid stocks up to record highs, anticipating benefits from tax cuts, deregulation, and business-friendly policies. However, this optimism has been replaced by growing concern about economic direction. As one market strategist noted, "We have witnessed a significant shift in sentiment. A lot of strategies that previously worked are now failing". The S&P 500 has relinquished all gains made since Trump's November 2024 election victory, representing a striking reversal in market confidence. Potential Long-Term Implications Historical Patterns and Future Outlook Historical analysis suggests that poor market starts during presidential transitions often foreshadow continued challenges. According to SunDial Capital Research strategist Jason Goepfert, rough starts represent a "bad omen" for stocks based on past performance patterns. His analysis indicates that markets typically show a median return of -1.9% six months after such a start, and after a year, they generally remain flat. Among similar historical instances, only four out of ten cases resulted in more gains than losses over the following year. Administration's Response to Market Decline Unlike during his first term, when Trump regularly referenced strong stock market performance as evidence of his administration's success, his second-term approach appears markedly different. Some market analysts have noted that "The Trump administration appears to be more accepting of the market's decline, potentially even welcoming a recession to achieve their broader objectives". This shift in attitude has further unsettled investors who previously expected the administration to prioritize market stability. Technical challenge The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index has recently soared 12% for its best day since January 2001. But did you know what happened next in 2001? The major upside trend as well as 5-years SMA were shortly broken and market printed extra 40 percent Bearish decline. Similar with what's happening in 2025..!? Exactly! Conclusion Trump's second presidential term has coincided with one of the worst stock market starts in modern American history, comparable only to George W. Bush's entry during the dot-com crash of 2001. The approximately 15% market decline since inauguration represents a loss of trillions in market value and a complete reversal of the optimism that followed his election. Trade policy uncertainty, particularly regarding tariffs, has emerged as the primary driver of market instability, creating fears of potential stagflation and undermining business confidence. As historical patterns suggest that poor starts often lead to continued underperformance, investors remain concerned about the market's trajectory through the remainder of 2025 and beyond. -- Best 'a bad omen' wishes, Your Beloved @PandorraResearch Team 😎
NASDAQ:IXIC
by PandorraResearch
2
VIX Clips 60 as Market Volatility and Tariff UncertaintyThe VIX Clips 60 as Market Volatility and Uncertainty Surge on Tariff Announcement The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often dubbed the “fear gauge,” surged past the 60 threshold this week—the highest level since August 5, 2023—as markets reacted violently to an unexpected announcement by the U.S. President regarding global tariffs. The sharp rise in the VIX, which measures market expectations of 30-day volatility, underscores the profound uncertainty now gripping investors, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeting over 1,000 points and the S&P 500 entering correction territory. The trigger? A sweeping tariff policy unveiled by the administration on Liberation Day, a symbolic holiday marking a shift in economic strategy, which has sent shockwaves through global markets. The VIX at 60: A Sign of Extreme Fear The VIX typically hovers around 15-20 under normal conditions, reflecting moderate uncertainty. However, readings above 30 indicate heightened anxiety, and levels above 50 are rare, historically occurring during major crises like the 2008 financial collapse or the 2020 pandemic sell-off. This week’s spike to 60 marks a dramatic escalation, signaling a market gripped by fear. Analysts attribute this to the suddenness and scale of the President’s tariff announcement, which caught investors off guard after a period of relative calm. The Liberation Day Tariff Announcement On Liberation Day—a holiday commemorating historical freedoms—the administration announced a 25% tariff on a broad range of imports from key trading partners, including China, the EU, and others, effective immediately. The move, framed as a “national economic security initiative,” aims to curb perceived trade imbalances and protect domestic industries. However, its immediate impact has been severe: Scope and Speed: The tariffs apply to $500 billion in goods, targeting sectors like semiconductors, automotive parts, and consumer electronics. The abrupt implementation, with no prior warning or negotiation, has left businesses scrambling to adjust supply chains. Political Context: The announcement coincided with domestic political tensions, including debates over inflation and job creation. The White House argued the tariffs would “level the playing field” for American workers, but critics warned of retaliation and inflationary pressures. Market Chaos: Sectors Under Siege The tariff shockwave rippled across asset classes: Equities: The S&P 500 fell 2+% on Monday, its worst single-day drop since March 2020. The Nasdaq, heavily weighted in tech stocks reliant on global supply chains, plunged over 5%. Sectors: Semiconductor firms like Intel and AMD tanked, while automakers such as Ford and Tesla declined sharply. Expert Analysis: A Volatility Tipping Point Historical Parallels and Economic Risks The current volatility mirrors past crises: 2008 Financial Crisis: The VIX hit 80 as Lehman Brothers collapsed, but the current crisis stems from policy, not financial contagion. 2020 Pandemic Sell-Off: The VIX spiked to 82 as lockdowns paralyzed economies, but today’s uncertainty is self-inflicted. However, the tariff-driven uncertainty poses unique risks: Inflation: Higher import costs could push inflation back above 4%, complicating the Fed’s rate-cut path. Global Growth: The World Bank warns that trade wars could shave 2% off global GDP by 2025. Emerging markets, reliant on exports, face currency crises. Looking Ahead: Can Calm Return? Markets may stabilize if the administration signals flexibility. Potential pathways include: Negotiations: A G20 summit in September offers a venue for de-escalation, though diplomatic progress is uncertain. Policy Reversal: If tariffs are delayed or narrowed, the VIX could retreat. However, the President’s rhetoric suggests a hardline stance. Corporate Adaptation: Companies might pivot to domestic suppliers, but such shifts take years, prolonging volatility. Conclusion: A New Era of Uncertainty The VIX at 60 marks a pivotal moment. Markets are now pricing in not just the immediate tariff impact but a broader shift toward protectionism and policy-driven instability. For investors, the path forward is fraught with uncertainty. While short-term volatility may ebb with reassurances, the long-term consequences—trade wars, inflation, and geopolitical friction—could redefine global economics for years. With Liberation Day’s tariffs reshaping the landscape, one thing is clear: the era of low volatility is over. The question now is whether policymakers can navigate this new turbulence—or if markets will remain hostages to fear.
TVC:VIX
by bryandowningqln