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Trump Coin's Wild Ride: Breaking Fibonacci to $115 or Busting toGood morning trading family! Here are the key levels to watch for $TRUMP: Resistance to Break: Keep an eye on the 38.2% Fibonacci level. If $TRUMP breaks above this, watch for: $89 - First significant target if the break is confirmed. $104 - Another potential milestone. $115 - The highest optimistic target if momentum continues. Support to Hold: If $TRUMP fails to break above the 46 range, watch for a potential drop to: $25 - A critical support level where the price might find a floor or continue to decline. These levels will guide whether $TRUMP climbs the stairs or slides down. Last minute: If you found this analysis valuable, boost it with a like, share, or send me a DM if you need help. Kris/Mindbloome Exchange Trade What You See
by Mindbloome-Trading
Trump's inauguration sends the Tech sector's 'time to shine'The 2nd inauguration of Donald Trump (now to sworn as the 47th president of the United States) is here and expected to take place on Monday, January 20, 2025. Crowds are gathering in Washington DC in freezing conditions ahead of this most anticipated over past several months event. Tech sector stocks are about to have a welcome moment also. The main technical graph for Nasdaq-100 indicates here's "time to shine" as positive fundamental and technical catalysts converge. A rising potential for AI monetization via agentic AI as a technology can autonomously accomplish complex tasks on the user's behalf. The fact is that widespread AI adoption has happened heavily more rapidly than PC and internet adoption in prior major technology cycles, which could mean that AI is closer than expected. As a result, qualitative commentary on ramping up enterprise AI adoption during earnings calls will likely evolve into indications of incremental revenue boosts this year, before more meaningful monetization as early as 2026, they add. Such a trajectory would likely be a welcome development for many AI investors who expressed worries last summer after pouring such huge amounts of money into the tech with little signs of a return on investment. In technical terms, Tech heavy Nasdaq-100 futures has been supported a week ago by 100-Day SMA, and now an epic breakthrough of the Reversed Head-and-Shoulders technical figure is coming. Descending Bearish channel seems is clearly broken in this time.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Long
by PandorraResearch
Breaking: $TRUMP Set to Surge to $100 on Trump’s InaugurationThe Solana-based memecoin, $TRUMP, created by the newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump, has taken the crypto world by storm. With a 15% uptick in price at the time of writing and major exchanges like Binance now listing the token, $TRUMP is making history as the first memecoin projected to reach the $100 milestone. This explosive growth highlights the coin’s unique blend of political significance and community-driven appeal. Technical Analysis: Is $100 a Realistic Target? The $TRUMP chart reveals a possible retracement to the $33 support zone, which could serve as a prime buy opportunity for traders. Liquidity has already been swept from the recent highs, suggesting that the market is gearing up for another upward move. Here are the key technical factors: 1. Support and Resistance Levels: - Immediate resistance is set at $73.43, the coin’s all-time high recorded on January 19, 2025. - Key support is at $33, where buyers have previously stepped in, indicating strong demand. 2. Trading Volume Surge: - $TRUMP’s daily trading volume stands at $35.9 billion, a 61.2% increase in just 24 hours. This uptick in volume is a bullish signal, showing heightened market activity. 3. Momentum Indicators: - RSI suggests the coin is nearing overbought territory, signaling potential cooling off before another rally. - MACD shows bullish divergence, further supporting a potential move to $100. What Makes $TRUMP Unique? The Official Trump token combines meme culture with political symbolism, creating a one-of-a-kind asset. Here’s what sets it apart: 1. Backed by Donald Trump: - Launched on Truth Social, $TRUMP is directly tied to President-elect Donald Trump’s brand, amplifying its appeal to both crypto enthusiasts and political supporters. 2. Ownership and Unlocking Schedule: - CIC Digital LLC and Fight Fight Fight LLC, affiliates of The Trump Organization, collectively own 80% of the Trump Cards, subject to a 3-year unlocking schedule. This structured release reduces the risk of immediate sell-offs. 3. Decentralized Appeal: - Despite its political connections, the token’s creators emphasize that $TRUMP is not a political instrument or security. Instead, it’s designed to engage users in the ideals and artwork associated with the Trump brand. Market Data: A Glimpse at $TRUMP’s Growth - Current Price: $54.03 (26.5% below its ATH of $73.43). - All-Time Low: $4.29 (achieved just two days ago). - Market Cap: $10.6 billion, ranking it #21 on CoinGecko. - Circulating Supply: 200 million tokens. Where to Buy $TRUMP The token is available on several leading exchanges, including: - OKX: The most active trading pair, TRUMP/USDT, has a 24-hour volume exceeding $4 billion. - KuCoin and Gate.io: Other popular platforms with significant trading activity. Potential Risks and Rewards While $TRUMP offers significant upside potential, traders should be aware of the inherent risks. High volatility, political controversies, and the speculative nature of memecoins could impact its trajectory. However, the token’s strong community support and robust trading activity make it a compelling choice for risk-tolerant investors. Conclusion $TRUMP is more than just a memecoin; it’s a cultural phenomenon blending crypto innovation with political influence. With technical indicators pointing toward a potential rally and fundamentals bolstered by strong market interest, the coin’s path to $100 seems increasingly plausible. Whether you’re a trader seeking short-term gains or a believer in its long-term potential, $TRUMP is a token to watch in 2025.
Long
by DEXWireNews
Bitcoin - Bitcoin, waiting for Trump's new policies!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 in the four-hour time frame and is trading in its ascending channel. Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk off sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to decline. Bitcoin's downward correction and its placement in the demand zone will allow us to buy it. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. Bullish signs are abundant in the cryptocurrency market, as investors observe various factors that favor this sector beyond Bitcoin. While some analysts predict 2025 as the year of altcoins, JPMorgan argues that Bitcoin will remain an attractive option. Market experts point to cyclical trends that could boost altcoins such as Solana and Ripple. These two tokens experienced significant growth following Donald Trump’s election victory, driven by expectations of greater support from the new administration. However, JPMorgan highlights four reasons why investors should approach the altcoin market cautiously. First, future policies remain speculative, with uncertainty surrounding their timing and impact. Although reduced regulatory oversight may improve sentiment across the industry, there is no guarantee that interest in decentralized finance will grow substantially. JPMorgan noted that it is still unclear whether these new regulations will allow the crypto ecosystem to integrate into traditional financial systems or if public blockchains like Ethereum will play a central role in the future. Additionally, the bank stated that ambitious plans for crypto reserves in the United States and beyond are likely to focus solely on Bitcoin. Certain U.S. states have already proposed legislation to hold Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation, a policy Washington might adopt during Trump’s second term. Second, Bitcoin continues to dominate the cryptocurrency fund space. JPMorgan predicts that retail and institutional investors will keep investing in Bitcoin spot ETFs, supported by Bitcoin’s appeal as digital gold. According to a Bernstein report, Bitcoin is expected to replace gold as the primary store of value in the global economy over the next decade. Bitcoin accounted for 35% of the total $78 billion inflows into the crypto market in 2024, according to JPMorgan. By contrast, Ethereum spot ETFs, launched in July 2024, attracted only $2.4 billion. The bank also forecasts that future ETFs for altcoins like Solana may see limited capital inflows. Third, the Bitcoin network is evolving to rival tokens with more specific use cases, such as Ethereum. Historically, Bitcoin was perceived as a buy-and-hold asset with limited functionality. However, developers have been expanding its capabilities, and new smart contract features will help it compete with rivals. JPMorgan also stated that large institutions might overlook public blockchains like Ethereum in favor of private blockchains offering customized solutions for institutional investors. Fourth, new altcoin projects require time to mature and prove their utility. The bank explained that decentralized initiatives often attract initial user attention but then face declining activity and token value. To achieve sustainability, these projects must demonstrate their long-term functional benefits. JPMorgan cautioned investors against expecting a repeat of the 2021 crypto bull market. During that period, projects succeeded through token distribution, but the current industry is more focused on blockchain capability development. The bank further noted that MicroStrategy is still halfway through its plan to invest $42 billion in Bitcoin. This software company has made a name for itself by accumulating vast Bitcoin reserves through equity and debt financing. For the first time in history, over 20% of total spot trading volume is conducted on decentralized exchanges (DEXs). Standard Chartered Bank warned that if the $90,000 support level breaks, Bitcoin could drop to around $80,000. The bank highlighted that Bitcoin ETF purchases have stabilized since the U.S. presidential election, and Jerome Powell’s policy shifts at the Federal Reserve on December 18 have increased selling pressure on digital assets. The bank cautioned that widespread panic could amplify these sell-offs, potentially affecting other cryptocurrencies.Nevertheless, such a price drop could present a long-term accumulation opportunity.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
NAS100 - Nasdaq index path, after the inauguration!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index corrects towards the demand zone, you can look for the next Nasdaq buy positions with the appropriate risk reward. Nasdaq being in the supply range will provide us with the conditions to sell it. As markets prepare for Donald Trump’s inauguration, the dollar has weakened slightly. Early signals suggest that no significant changes in tariff policies are imminent, leading to a minor dip in the dollar’s value. Over the weekend, Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping had a positive conversation. Following the call, Trump tweeted, “Just had an excellent conversation with Xi Jinping of China. This was very good for both China and the U.S. I expect us to solve many issues together, and we’ll start immediately.” Meanwhile, the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq Technology Index has reached its highest level in two years. Bloomberg data shows the 30-day correlation index between the world’s largest cryptocurrency and the Nasdaq stands at approximately 0.70, indicating closely aligned movements between the two assets. On another front, Jared Bernstein, head of Joe Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers, has warned that the incoming Trump administration’s potential interference in Federal Reserve interest rate policies could risk a resurgence in inflation. Bernstein emphasized the importance of maintaining the Fed’s independence and noted that executive actions should not influence interest rate decisions. TD Securities predicts that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady during the first half of this year. However, it expects rate cuts to resume in the second half, with the terminal rate reaching the low 3% range. This strategy reflects the economy’s need to digest Trump’s new policies, particularly on tariffs and immigration. This week’s economic calendar is relatively light.Both the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq will be closed on Monday, January 20, 2025, in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Later in the week, key economic data will be released. On Thursday, the U.S. weekly jobless claims report will be published, followed by preliminary S&P Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data and existing home sales figures on Friday. Bank of America forecasts that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will reach 4.75% this year, with the potential to surpass 5% depending on Federal Reserve decisions. However, it sees a low probability of yields exceeding 5.25%. The bank cites a strong macroeconomic backdrop and a hawkish Federal Reserve, suggesting that any rate hikes will depend on inflation data. Bank of America also notes that yields near 5% could represent a compelling buying opportunity, provided the Consumer Price Index remains stable or declines slightly.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Ali_PSND
TRUMPomania - 3 variants of possibly Bulls RallyCrypto markets have been rocked by the launch of an "official" Donald Trump memecoin this weekend—with traders braced for more mayhem this coming week. Unlock over $3,000 in NFT, web3 and crypto perks — Apply now! The price of the "official" Trump memecoin has surged since its Friday evening launch, breaking into the crypto top 20 by market capitalization and hitting an eye-watering $14 billion. Now, as leaks reveal Trump is readying a flurry of crypto-focused executive orders, Trump's wife Melania has launched her own rival cryptocurrency—tanking the price of Trump's coin. Sign up now for the free CryptoCodex—A daily five-minute newsletter for traders, investors and the crypto-curious that will get you up to date and keep you ahead of the bitcoin and crypto market bull run
Long
by POWERFUL_TRADERS
4
MES: Ice and Fire Could Blow the U.S. Economy Off its CourseCME: Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Futures ( CME_MINI:MES1! ) #Microfutures In “A Song of Ice and Fire”, American author George Martin painted a mystical land where dragons spit out flame to destroy a whole city and a winter that last one hundred years. Game of Thrones, the popular HBO TV series, was adapted from Martin’s book. In 2025, we seem to be reliving these moments. California wildfires have claimed dozens of lives, burnt down thousands of homes, and caused an estimated $250 billion in damage. Meanwhile, Winter Storm Blair raged coast-to-coast, bringing heavy snow across the Great Plain to Mid-Atlantic. The storms shut down interstate highways, caused thousands of airport delays and racked up 350,000 power outages. At the time of this writing, Polar Vortex is bringing freezing temperature back to the lower 48 states. These weather perils are very destructive. In my opinion, the forces of nature could cause real damage to the entire U.S. economy. Firstly, we could see a rebound in inflation The Bureau of Statistics (BLS) reported that US CPI increased 0.4% in December and went up 2.9% year-over-year (YoY). Of which, the energy index decreased 0.5% YoY with energy commodities gasoline and fuel oil falling 3.4% and 13.1%, respectively. In contrast, energy services such as electricity increased 2.8% and natural gas (piped) rose 4.9% YoY. The chart shows a correlation between CPI and natural gas prices. The underlying logic is the U.S. economic reliance on natural gas. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), about 43.1% of the electricity in the country was generated by natural gas. In “Nat Gas: Trading the Weather”, I explained how cold temperatures increase natural gas demand for generating electricity and heating up homes. Higher natural gas prices affect not just the storm-hit regions, the entire country also bears a higher cost for energy services. Larger utility bills raise the cost of producing and distributing all goods and services. A leading indicator: When natural gas prices rise, inflation will likely go up. Conclusion: As natural gas went up sharply, we could expect a higher CPI for January. Secondly, we could see economic slowdown and higher unemployment Many businesses in the passage of winter storms suffered loss of sales. People in parts of Los Angles were evacuated. The total cost for insurance payout, loss of revenue, debris cleanup and rebuilding amounts to hundreds of billions of dollars. Total US GDP was $28 trillion last year, or about $2.3 trillion per month. A quick calculation shows that the weather perils could shave off 1/10th of the US national output for the month of January! Many S&P 500 companies are based in California or in the storm-hit regions. The actual damage to them will be revealed when they report quarterly earnings in April and May. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will report Q1 GDP on April 30th. US unemployment has been on the rise since mid-2023. In my opinion, the A.I. driven technological revolution is responsible for many High-Tech layoffs. On January 10th, the BLS released its nonfarm payroll report and showed that unemployment in the Information sector was 98,000 in December 2024, up from 86,000 a year ago. December is the busiest month for the Retail sector. However, retailers report total unemployment of 897,000 for the month, up 87,000 or 11% from December 2023. When the BLS updates its payroll report in January, I expect to see higher unemployment data. The month-to-month data could be even worse, as January is usually a slow month after the December holiday season. In addition, winter storms and wildfires would push more businesses to shut down and lay off employees. Finally, the uncertainty around economic policies under the new administration I expect President Trump to raise “ice and fire” on his own. If his first term is any guide, we would see plenty of drastic policy changes impacting various industries. Uncertainties are not well embraced in the world of investment. Any new policy initiative could bring the market to chaos when the news breaks, regardless of its long-term effect. During the first term, important policies (such as new tariff) were usually announced from Twitter tweets. This time around, they would likely come out of Truth Social tweets. Trading with Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Futures In my opinion, the U.S. stock market will face more volatility in the coming months. Key economic data could be disappointing for investors. • When the January nonfarm payroll report is released on February 7th, monthly employment data could trend lower, while unemployment rate ticks up. Signals of economic weakness could send the stock market lower. • When the January CPI data is released on February 12th, the headline inflation could move higher. If this is the case, the Fed is less likely to lower interest rates. The stock market will face downward pressure. • The Fed will meet on January 29th. According to CME Group FedWatch Tool, the futures market prices a Fed decision of no-change at 97.9%. However, the market consensus shows that Fed Funds rates could drop to 3.25-4.00% by December, indicating 1-4 rate cuts in 2025. The Fed has not committed to any further rate cut. www.cmegroup.com Given these scenarios, a trader could explore short-term opportunities by shorting the S&P 500 prior to the Big Report Dates. The CFTC Commitment of Traders report provides further support to this thinking. The latest data shows that, as of January 14th, Leverage Funds hold 151,543 long positions and 448,908 short positions for E-Mini S&P 500 futures. Despite the S&P nearing its all-time high, “Smart Money” already turns bearish. Shorts outweigh longs by a 3-to-1 ratio. • They are also bearish on Nasdaq 100, by a 1:2 long-short ratio (43,254 vs. 82,724) • This contrasts with the Dow contracts sharply. Leverage funds own Micro Dow by a 3:2 long-short ratio (17,591 vs. 10,051) during the same period. The MES contracts offer smaller-sized versions of CME Group’s benchmark S&P 500 futures (ES) contracts. Micro futures have a contract size of $5 times the S&P 500 index, which is 1/10th of the E-Mini contract. Micro contracts are very liquid. CME Group data shows that 1,095,979 contracts were traded on Thursday, January 16th. Open Interest at the end of the day was 129,228. Buying or selling 1 MES contract requires an initial margin of $1,525. With Friday closing price of 6,040, each March contract (MESH5) has a notional value of $30,200. Compared with investing in stocks, the futures contracts offer a built-in leverage of about 20 times (=30200/1525). Hypothetically, if S&P futures price falls 10% to 5,436, the price change of 604 points (6,040-5,436) will translate into $3,020 in profit for a short position, given each index point equal to $5 for the Micro contract. Using the initial margin of $1,525 as a cost base, the trade would produce a theoretical return of 198% (=3020/1525). The risk to short Micro S&P is that the US stock market continues its spectacular rally. To limit the downside risk, a trader could set up a stop-loss when entering a short position. For illustration, a short trade executed at 6,040 could be combined with a 6,200 stop. If the S&P goes up to 6,500, the trader’s position would be liquidated well before that. The maximum loss would be $800 (= (6200-6040) * $5). Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
2
Skyrexio | TRUMP Is Destroying Crypto Market: When It Will Stop?Hello, Skyrexians! Last 2 days something crazy is happening on the crypto market. KCEX:TRUMPUSDT is absorbing all crypto market and many people warn that it can destroy even Bitcoin. This sounds scary, but we want to remind you that FOMO will destroy your deposit. Anyway TRUMP coin is tradable and our methods are applicable to it. Let's take a look at 15 min time frame. Awesome Oscillator helps us to understand in which wave this asset now. The answer is in the wave 3. Fibonacci extension shows us that this pump is coming to end. Price is inside that target area. Now a lot of FOMO buyers incoming into this coin, we need correction. In our opinion this correction will reach $45 then we will see the wave 5 to $120-130. After that we can face with the huge crash. We will wait for the signal on Bullish/Bearish Reversal Bar Indicator , look how perfectly it worked before! The red dot at $120 is going to be final call for holders to sell. Best regards, Skyrexio Team ___________________________________________________________ Please, boost this article and subscribe our page if you like analysis!
Long
by Skyrexio
4
The TrumpCoin Craze: What’s Really Going On?Yesterday, something truly bizarre happened in the world of crypto. Donald Trump—yes, that Donald Trump—launched his very own cryptocurrency, TrumpCoin ($TRUMP). At first, like everyone else, I thought his account had been hacked. I mean, launching a meme coin just days before his presidential inauguration? Come on... But nope, it’s 100% real. Verified. Like many others, I got curious and, let’s face it, greedy. So, I bought in. The result? I cashed out at a nice 3x profit, enough for a fun night out. But before we dive into the crazy market activity, let me clarify a couple of things: - I’m not a Trump fan. This isn’t about politics. - I don’t think this is a rug pull, at least not intentionally . It seems more like someone who doesn’t fully understand how crypto works decided to jump in. A Brief Timeline of Chaos TrumpCoin was announced on his social platforms, including Truth Social and X (formerly Twitter). Initially, everyone thought it was fake news. I mean, a meme coin with his name on it? Right before inauguration day? It screams “scam.” But soon after, major crypto news outlets confirmed its legitimacy. And then the madness began. Within hours: - Market cap: Over $14 billion at the time of writing(and climbing). - Trading volume: A jaw-dropping $11 billion in just one day. - Price swings: The coin hit a high of $3.30 before dipping below $1.50 and now is above $4. Trump’s company, CIC Digital LLC, reportedly holds 80% of the coin supply, making this a financial windfall for him—even if the project crashes. The Crypto Community Splits This move has divided the crypto space. On one hand, you have people who are treating $TRUMP like any other speculative asset. ( Hi, that’s me! ) On the other, there are folks who see it as a statement of loyalty to Trump. Then there’s a third group—the skeptics—who warn that this could end in disaster. The real problem? Newbies are piling in without understanding what they’re doing. The hype is pulling in people who don’t know a rug pull from a blockchain. They’re buying and buying, hoping to ride the wave, and are likely to get burned when the bubble bursts. Is This a Rug Pull? Let’s address the elephant in the room. With 80% of the supply in Trump’s control, the setup raises eyebrows. But is this an intentional scam? Probably not. If anything, this feels more like a PR stunt gone wild—a way to cash in on his fame and make a splash before returning to the White House. That said, the outcome could still be the same. At some point, the hype will die, the price will tank, and many will lose money. The bigger it gets, the harder it’ll fall. My Take: Enjoy the Ride, but Be Careful TrumpCoin is the epitome of crypto’s wild side: volatile, unpredictable, and more about hype than substance. If you’re diving in, know what you’re getting into. For me, it was a quick trade—buy low, sell high, and get out. But I worry about the inexperienced investors who are holding on, hoping for it to hit $10, $20, or even higher. So, here’s my advice: Don’t invest more than you can afford to lose. Take profits while you can. Remember, just because something is popular doesn’t mean it’s sustainable. Whether $TRUMP reaches a $25 billion, $50 billion market cap or crashes spectacularly, one thing’s for sure—it’s going to be one heck of a ride. Stay safe out there, and happy trading!
Education
by Mihai_Iacob
29
STRUMP - Could it present an incredible buying opportunity?Super Trump looks like more lower lows are ahead. Simplicity is key here. Don't worry about 100 different signals. Look at the core signals that work best for you. Mine are very simple and I know how to make them work and 'jive' together. Volume is bleak, all red. Blue trend line breach is unlikely. Hurst (time) cycles says that we're 1/2 way through a cycle which infers more down. The signals that would give me the highest confidence of a reversal are a few green bars on the volume, a blue trend line decisive break-out and a few more exchanges on-boarding this eclectic meme coin. I wouldn't bother, stay away. Follow and share for more.
by cryptechcapital
1
SOL on the edge ETF Decision & Strategic Reserve News to TriggerTechnical Analysis 1. Descending Channel The price has been consolidating within the descending channel since November, consistently bouncing off the upper and lower boundaries. A breakout above the channel would signify a bullish reversal and a possible surge toward higher resistance levels, such as $220 and $240. 2. Current Momentum The price is near the upper boundary of the channel at $204. A successful breakout accompanied by strong volume would confirm a bullish move. 3. Targets After Breakout Immediate target $220 (previous support turned resistance). Extended target $240-$280, depending on momentum and news impact. News/Event Driven Catalysts: 1. Solana ETF Decision The U.S. SEC decision on a Solana ETF within the next 8 days is a crucial factor. If approved, this would open the doors for institutional investment in Solana, significantly increasing demand and price. Historically, ETF approvals for assets have led to sharp price rallies, often breaking technical resistances. 2. Trump’s Strategic Reserve Plans The announcement that the U.S. President-elect is considering cryptocurrencies like Solana for a national reserve creates a bullish sentiment. If implemented, this could position Solana as a strategic asset in the crypto space, attracting major investors and long-term holders. 3. Market Sentiment: Positive news about an altcoin reserve and Solana’s inclusion could further amplify its status as a leading blockchain in the market, pushing prices higher. Potential Scenarios 1. Bullish Scenario (Breakout) If the SEC approves the Solana ETF and positive sentiment continues, the price is likely to break above the channel. Key levels to watch post-breakout: $220 (immediate resistance), $240, and $280. 2. Bearish Scenario (Rejection) If the ETF is rejected or market sentiment turns negative, the price might face rejection at the upper boundary of the channel. Downside levels to watch: $180 (support within the channel) and $165 (channel bottom). This chart and the accompanying news strongly indicate that Solana is at a pivotal moment. Traders should monitor the channel breakout closely and pay attention to ETF-related news and market reactions. With the potential approval of the ETF and increasing institutional interest, Solana could experience a significant rally, making it a key asset to watch in the short term.
Long
by wolfchemist
USDCAD - which direction will the Canadian dollar go?The USDCAD currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving within the range. The correction of this currency pair towards the demand zone will provide us with the next buying position. The upward movement of this currency pair will make its selling positions attractive. Canada has initiated efforts to mitigate the economic impacts of new U.S. tariffs. These measures include the creation of a critical minerals management unit and defense procurement activities. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau emphasized that Canada would respond firmly and decisively if the U.S. imposes tariffs. Bloomberg reported that Canada is prepared to impose tariffs on $105 billion worth of American goods should the U.S. act first. Quebec’s Premier stated that no official announcements about retaliatory actions would be made until Trump’s plans are clearer, but no options are off the table. Ontario’s Premier added that any retaliatory measures against the U.S. must be stringent. Donald Trump, the U.S. President-elect, campaigned on promises such as imposing heavy import tariffs, tightening immigration policies, reducing regulations, and downsizing the government.However, the economy he is set to oversee may require a different approach from the policies implemented in 2017. Currently, the U.S. economy is growing at an above-average pace, unemployment is near full employment, and inflationary pressures remain significant. This suggests that the U.S. economy might not need fiscal stimulus measures like tax cuts. Furthermore, high asset valuations and rising bond yields could expose the economy to sharper corrections. When Trump took office in 2017, the U.S. economy was still recovering from the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Policies such as tax cuts and import tariffs had varying impacts then. However, today, inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, mortgage rates are near 7%, and government bond yields are close to 5%. These rising yields may reflect market concerns about inflation control and America’s fiscal discipline. In a recent Reuters survey, 25 out of 31 economists predicted that the Bank of Canada would cut interest rates by 0.25% at its January 29 meeting, while the remaining six expected rates to stay unchanged. Gravelle, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, stated that quantitative tightening (QT) is expected to conclude in the first half of 2025. He noted that ending QT would require settlement balances to rise to a range of CAD 50-70 billion, up from the previous estimate of CAD 20-60 billion. Treasury bond purchases are set to commence in the last quarter of this year, initially in small volumes. Following the release of recent data, projections for real personal consumption expenditures in Q4 have risen from 3.3% to 3.7%, while real government spending growth for the same period increased from 2.9% to 3%. However, forecasts for real private domestic investment growth have been revised downward from -0.4% to -0.8%. In its updated forecast, Wells Fargo indicated that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates twice this year by 0.25%, once in September and again in December. Previously, three rate cuts were anticipated for the year.
Short
by Ali_PSND
Dow Jones Likely Trending Up in the Next Four YearsCBOT: Micro E-Mini Dow Jones Futures ( CBOT_MINI:MYM1! ) #Microfutures The United States will enter a new presidency on Monday, January 20th. Will the stock market continue its upward trend under the 47th U.S. President? Before we set our sight on the future, it’s prudent to look back in history first. While it is not a guarantee for future performance, history does provide good intelligence. To find clues for our answer, I conducted an analysis on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). How the Dow Performed Under Different Presidencies My research setup is as follow: • I look at DJIA daily close prices for the past 50 years (from Aug. 1974 to Jan. 2025). This period covers 9 presidents and 13 four-year presidential terms. • For all the presidents, I use their Inauguration Day January 20th as the start day, while setting the end day for January 19th four years later. I compare the changes in DJIA closing prices from start to finish for each 4-year term. • The exceptions: Gerald Ford, who started his term on August 9, 1974, after Richard Nixon resigned; and Joe Biden, for whom I use the latest trade day January 15th. Here is what I found: • Gerald Ford (Aug. ‘74 – Jan. ’77): DJIA went up 181.7 points (+23.4%) • Jimmy Carter (Jan. ’77 – Jan. ’81), down 8.4 points (-0.9%) • Ronald Reagon (Jan. ’81 – Jan. ’89), up 1,288.1 points (+135.5%). The data can be further broken down to +68.6% in his 1st term and +45.7% in the 2nd term • George H.W. Bush (Jan. ’89 – Jan. ’93), up 1,020.6 points (+45.7%) • Bill Clinton (Jan. ’93 – Jan. ’01), up 7,345.6 points (+226.6%), including +110.8% in the 1st four years and +54.7% in the 2nd four years • George W. Bush (Jan. ’01 – Jan. ’09), down 2,306.4 points (-21.8%), for which -0.4% and -20.9% for his 1st and 2nd terms, respectively • Barack Obama (Jan. ’09 – Jan. ’17), up 11,783.3 points (+148.2%), including +71.7% in the 1st term and +44.6% in the 2nd term • Donald Trump (Jan. ’17 – Jan. ’21), up 11,060.2 points (+55.8%) • Joe Biden (Jan. ’21 – Jan. ’21), up 12,202.8 points (+39.5%) Dow Jones advanced the most points under current administration (+12,203 points), with Obama coming in 2nd for 11,783 points. The DJIA index gained the most in percentage terms under the Clinton administration (+226%). Across all nine presidents, DJIA was lower for one, flat for another, but moved up 7 out of 9 times. If you look deeper into the worst-performing years under George W. Bush, you will find that 9/11 terrorist attack happened in his first term and the 2008 financial crisis occurred in his second term. Both can be considered extreme events and outliners in the dataset. Regardless which political party commands the White House, the Dow is more likely to move up than down. From the first day Gerald took office to the last week of the Biden administration, DJIA went from 777 to 43,133, a huge gain of 5,449%! Trading with Micro E-Mini Dow Jones Futures The above analysis gives us comfort in the upward mobility of the US stock market. Further analysis of the DJIA shows strength in its Top 5 component companies. • As of January 15th, DJIA went up 15.5% in the past 12 months • Gold Sachs, which holds an 8.2% share by index weight, was up 57.5% in a year • 1-year returns for the other top components are: United Health (+4.2%), Microsoft (+9.0%), Home Depot (+12.2%), and Caterpillar (+31.5%) An investor may simply deploy the time-honored “Buy and Hold” strategy. The longer the holding period, the better the returns, barring extreme circumstances. Given that the DJIA is trending up over the long run, active traders may consider using stock index futures to enhance their investment returns. Micro E-Mini Dow Jones futures (MYM) offer smaller-sized versions of CME Group’s benchmark Dow Jones futures (YM) contracts. Micro futures have a contract size of 0.5 times the DJIA index, which is 1/10th of the standard contract. CME data shows that the E-Mini and Micro Dow Jones futures have a combined open interest of 103,077 contract as of this Monday. According to the CFTC Commitment of Traders report, as of January 7, 2025, Leverage Funds hold 17,504 long positions and 11,695 short positions. With DJIA nearing its all-time high, “Small Money” is still bullish. Longs outweigh shorts by a 3:2 ratio. Buying or selling one MYM contract requires an initial margin of $1,077. With Wednesday midday quote of 43,376, each March contract (MYMH5) has a notional value of $21,688. Compared with investing in stocks, the futures contracts offer a built-in leverage of about 20 times (=21688/1077). Hypothetically, if Dow futures price moves up 10% to 47,714 in 2025, the index gain of 4,338 points will translate into $2,169 for a long position, given each index point equal to $0.50 for the Micro contract. Using the initial margin of $1,077 as a cost base, the trade would produce a theoretical return of 201.4% (=2169/1077). Futures contracts have expiration days, and you may not hold them forever like stocks. To stay Long in the DJIA, a trader may consider a futures rollover strategy. An illustration: • A trader would buy the lead contract March now, and hold it till the end of February • He would then sell March and buy June, which will become the next lead contract • He would repeat this process: buy September and sell June at the end of May • Repeat this again to buy December and sell September at the end of August This series of trades allows a trader to establish a long position in the DJIA throughout the year, while holding the most liquid contracts. There is no guarantee that each trade will yield positive returns. But if the Dow is trending up over time, the winning would likely outpace the loses. The leverage feature in futures works both ways. It would magnify the losses as well as improving the winnings. The good news is, a trader could put stop-loss on his futures trades, limiting the downside risks. For example, our trader may set stop-loss at 42,000 when he buys the MYM at 43,376. If the Dow falls to 40,000, his position will be liquidated well before that when the price hits 42,000. The maximum loss incurred will be $688 (= (43376 - 42000) * 0.5). The combination of Futures Rollover with Stop-loss could yield higher returns (thanks to the leverage) while maintaining a limited loss exposure. If the index bounces up and down but trends up in the long stretch, the trader will see both wins and losses. Since the wins are unbounded but the losses are contained, the overall returns would likely be positive. The risk to long Micro Dow is that the US stock market enters a bear market, and DJIA trends down over a long period of time. The trader could incur a series of limited losses, and the gains were not sufficient to cover those losses. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DJ:DJILong
by JimHuangChicago
8
Can DJT Trump Media & Technology Group Hit 171? Hey, trading family DJT from Trump Media & Technology Group is hovering around $42 right now. If we can rally it up to $62.50 and break out of that triangle, we're in for an epic run. We're talking potential jumps to $106, then $142, and if the stars align, we could see $171! With all the buzz around the inauguration, this could be DJT's moment to shine. If you're as excited about this potential breakout as I am, please give this post a boost, leave some love in the comments, or share it around! And if you want to chat more about this or need more trading insights, feel free to DM me or check out my profile for more. Let's watch this one together and see if we can hit those numbers! Kris/Mindbloome Exchange Trade What You See
NASDAQ:DJTLong
by Mindbloome-Trading
13
Copper - Markets are waiting for Trump's decisions!In the 4-hour timeframe, copper is above the EMA200 and EMA50 and is moving in its descending channel. Copper moved down from the supply zone of the previous analysis. The downward correction of copper will provide us with the opportunity to buy it with the appropriate risk reward. If the upward trend continues, you can sell copper in the next supply zone. According to experts, commodity prices are expected to decline in 2025 due to a weak global economic outlook and the resurgence of the US dollar. Analysts at Deutsche Bank have identified three key political developments in their latest report that could shape the strategy of US President-elect Donald Trump. These developments include changes in tariff policies, Trump’s preference for introducing a large, comprehensive bill, and his plan to fund tax cuts through tariffs. Deutsche Bank notes that the year will largely be influenced by the combination of policies Trump proposes. However, it seems unlikely that a comprehensive bill addressing both border and tax issues will be ready before April or May. Experts believe that Trump is likely to use Section 232 investigations to impose sector-specific tariffs. These investigations allow the government to implement tariffs on the grounds of national security. Deutsche Bank forecasts that Trump will employ multiple tariff approaches, including legislative and executive actions. Analysts suggest that Trump may attempt to enact broader tariffs through legislation, as this is the only way tariff revenues can be incorporated into the budget reconciliation process by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Two key bills in Congress related to the revocation of China’s normal trade status have been highlighted as important areas to monitor in this regard. This multi-faceted approach and the varying timelines for imposing tariffs introduce significant complexities and risks. However, from a financial perspective, Deutsche Bank predicts that Trump’s fiscal policies may have more moderate impacts, potentially easing some of the existing tensions. Markets are also watching for further moves by China to stimulate its economy in hopes that such measures might revive demand for commodities in the world’s second-largest economy. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has announced plans to cut interest rates and required bank reserves. However, the market is looking for more tangible actions to directly support consumers, rather than simply increasing public sector wages. In other words, the market seeks renewed confidence and vitality in the economy. Nonetheless, the lack of transparency in China’s economy remains a pressing issue. Even within China and among government officials, there appears to be no clear understanding of the economic situation. Public sentiment remains highly negative and has not recovered since the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite these challenges, China continues to excel in certain sectors. For instance, the country has achieved notable success in the automotive and artificial intelligence industries. Additionally, China is still considered the easiest place in the world to manufacture anything. However, these advantages ultimately need to translate into improved domestic consumption to create lasting positive effects. In a note, BMI stated that potential slowdowns in the energy transition due to Trump’s policy changes could dampen the green energy sentiment that bolstered prices in 2024. John Gross, president of John Gross Consulting, told CNBC that while copper prices peaked in May 2024 due to market pressures, they have since been in a downward trend, which is expected to continue. He added, “A complex combination of high inflation, elevated interest rates, and a strong dollar will negatively impact metal markets.”
CAPITALCOM:COPPERLong
by Ali_PSND