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Trumptrade

US Stock Market Making 2nd Attempt at Parabolic Blow-Off TopI believe we will get either a blow-off top in the S&P or a fundamental event that kills the expansion, sending price below the magenta rising support line. If the Fed is too slow to expand the balance sheet, then stocks can correct significantly until the Fed eases adequately. If Trump wins and the Fed expands their balance sheet in 2020 at a fast enough pace, then spx will enter a blow-off top mania. If Bernie or Warren win, a significant correction will take place but SPX may bounce once rates hit zero or negative. If the Fed is slow to move (quite likely) then SPX will swing really violently and could get scary for some investors and traders In my view, the SPX is only worth trading, it is not worth investing in. Now is the time to be getting out of US stocks and US dollars and into emerging markets and commodities. Sometimes being a better investor means passing up immediate returns via central bank fueled irrational exuberance and waiting for an even better opportunity later once the music has stopped and everyone has been exposed. Impossible to predict the top, so better off not fully participating.
SP:SPX
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
1
COMPLETED 5-3 CYCLE SET UP EURUSD FOR MAJOR RALLY$EURUSD is setting up for a massive rally in wave 3. Wave 3 should exceed the high of wave 1 and might advance 1x or 1.618x wave 1. Price is sitting at a critical confluence level comprising of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the advance, and wave (c) equal 0.618 x Wave (a). I took a loss on last week because I was initially labeled the correction as a regular flat pattern. I had to re-evaluate before the market close on Friday, and I already open a new buy position. All these are in line with bullish activity on Gold, and BTCUSD. While the US economy will suffer. Expecting Dollar weakness!
Long
by Veejahbee
3
GOLD: Daytrade-Opportunity#TRUMPtradeHey tradomaniacs, welcome to another free signal! Important: News from China caused a rising stock-market. In terms of correlation this move caused a fakeout for gold and could cause a continuation of sell-pressure until we see Trumps next tweet. ;-D ----------------------------- Type: Daytrade Sell here: 1537,35 Stop-Loss: 1547,59 Target 1: 1525,97 Target 2: 1521,65 Target 3: 1516,76 ----------------------------- LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me. Any questions? PM me. :-)
TVC:GOLDShort
by Trading2ez
9
GBPNZD LongGBPNZD, -has just broken Daily EMA200 & retrace to reject EMA200 to act as a dynamic support. -broken 0.5% Fibo and retraced back to 0.5 level so there's a high chance of it bouncing right off to head towards the next level of resistance. A buy stop is placed 10 pips above current resistance level on H4 , waiting the breakout to capture 50-100 pips in 2 days time, that being said if you were to zoom out to look at a bigger picture, you'll be looking at a triangle pattern which I'm optimistic that it'll be pending to hit the trendily above. Fundamentally speaking, Trump is going to have "breakfast" with Boris which in my opinion they might come up with some scheme to counter the situation they're in. XAUUSD(GOLD) had reached a weekly high which is waiting for a strong pullback & pound currently needs some strength in having a deal in brexit. So, this week is going to be a fun week of breakouts for GBP & USD pairings, trade safe :)
Long
by AnalyticalTan
Where is the bottom? I am still on the short sideRunning two shorts atm - 12079 and 11919 After yesterday almost flat range (kinda) of the DAX, I opened an extra short on top of my 12079 - Opened one literally 2 mins before Trump was tweeting , but even without that I was looking too short. Due to the news, it is hard to find the bottom at the moment. so my sentiment stays bearish - and a possible drive through 11640. Will hedge in-between for a scalp long, until there is an ease and enough reason to add a big long.
TVC:DEU40Short
by EtornoCapital
Chart of the Day: ES1! Continuation WedgeWhen's a wedge a wedge and when is it a pennant formation? To answer this question:- #1 The wedge occurred post a trend-break which from experience is usually an ABCD down move at the minimum #2 The wedge is situated at a key interim support level (note the key SSR level at 2800) #3 Price action is now clustering below a new SSR level #4 Price action tried and failed to break through key MA resistance #5 The intra-day high is a 61.8% retracement of the AB leg The ES1! broke down because of a breakdown in trade negotiation between the Trump administration and China. Fundamentally speaking, nothing has changed during this consolidation phase to make me think markets are going for a melt-up. So, in my opinion, this is a continuation wedge aka pennant formation. The Chinese have articulated their red lines which are a function of sovereignty and economic reality. Whereas the Trump administration seems hell-bent on gunboat diplomacy to achieve a Plaza Accord type agreement and is seemingly lumping China in the same vein as Iran in terms of its maximum pressure doctrine. A 90-day reprieve for Huawei does little to soothe the tensions between the US and China. Rhetoric from China suggests a hardening of attitudes reinforcing the view that China view Trump as an untrustworthy negotiating partner and is hunkering down for the long term. Given the mutual distrust, it would appear a real deal is unlikely and the odds of a cold war type scenario is increasingly likely and the higher likelihood of Trump’s unforced policy errors upsetting an overvalued equity market with weakening fundamentals. The fact that S&P500 companies derive approximately half of their earnings from international markets seem to escape the trade hawks within the Trump administration. As always , sell when you can. This is just an opinion, do your own homework and this is not a solicitation to trade or otherwise. For more information on SSR levels, search scripts for Significant Force Support and Resistance.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by WellTrainedMonkey
S&P 500: May You Live In Interesting TimesThe SPXUSD (the perpetual contract of the SP 500) is somewhat of an indicator for domestic US investor sentiment. In comparison, I consider the DJIA to be an indicator of foreign capital flows to the US. The US appears to be triggered by the nomination of a Supreme Court judge, or rather, the slander and innuendo associated with the nomination... and despite all the howling and nashing of teeth, the S&P500 goes nowhere but up, for slander and innuendo cannot be traded. I mention this because US political instability is a fundamental headwind. The Supreme Court nomination is a flashpoint that reveals the deep polarization, unfocused discontent, and indoctrination in the US. Meaning, if Kavanaugh is appointed, investor sentiment will be maintained, as it represents a win for Trump, and a win for Trump is a win for business. But, a lot of people will not accept this nomination, and it will only deepen political contention. Any threat to Trump may impact the markets negatively. But for now, the markets are optimistic. Was today the dip to buy? It was trendline and horizontal confluence. I would like to see the lower parallels tested for an even better buy entry. As traders, the best we can do is do what needs to be done, when it needs to be done. In a bull market, that means buying the dip. If the lower parallel is taken out on a closing basis, I will naturally readjust. For now, no damage has been done. I find it troubling that daily, weekly and monthly stock/rsi are flashing bearish divergence. Bear div can always be negated, but this needs to be monitored. In short, stay long. Buy dips. Re-adjust if levels are taken out to the downside.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by TheRealPeaches
SHORT NZD/CAD NAFTA MS TRADECAD should outperform NZD over the coming weeks. Constructive NAFTA news suggests that the US may be getting closer to an acceptable agreement with its trading partners, which should lead to a continued re-pricing of the trade risk premium. Risks to a more dovish RBNZ continue, with the new Policy Targets Agreement likely to add a second employment mandate and potentially offer specific language on the currency. Data in NZ also remain uncompelling, including the business PMI and GDP. Positioning also favors the trade, with the market remaining long NZD while CAD sentiment is net bearish. A risk to the trade is a dovish shift from the BoC, leading to CAD weakness. - Morgan Stanley
Short
by itzbert
Has the Market Mispriced Refined Coal?Just finished writing a detailed analysis of ADES in which I talk about the growing demand for refined coal both in the United States, and more importantly Southeast Asia. ADES is sitting on loads of cash, its turning around its cash from operations, and has a solid catalyst in its chemicals business that puts it ahead of the industry. Using DCF it has a fair value of around $22/share when using the average EPS over the last four years. The technicals aren't great, but I like the support level and am looking for a bounce from support. Check out my post if you're interested, and please, leave feedback if my analysis is missing something or if I am overlooking anything: rockvuecapital.wordpress.com
ALong
by BrandonBeylo
4