USDCAD: political crisis and tariff crisis in Canada!The USDCAD currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. The correction of this currency pair towards the demand zones will provide us with the next buying position.
The political crisis surrounding Justin Trudeau is deepening, with an increasing number of Liberal Party members publicly calling for the Canadian Prime Minister to step down and allow a new leader to take charge before the 2025 elections.
Chad Collins, a Member of Parliament from Ontario, stated that nearly 50 elected Liberals are part of a growing group advocating for Trudeau’s resignation. Other Liberal opponents have reported similar numbers, representing approximately one-third of the 153 Liberal MPs in the House of Commons.
The resignation of Chrystia Freeland, Trudeau’s influential Finance Minister and longtime deputy, has been a significant blow to the Prime Minister. Collins remarked that this resignation has caused irreparable harm to Trudeau.
Freeland explained that she decided to resign after being informed of a reassignment within the cabinet. She mentioned that Trudeau informed her of the decision only three days before an important speech intended to update the nation on its financial and economic status.
Criticizing Trudeau’s leadership, Collins said, “I don’t know who is advising him, but I can guess. This advice is far from effective. Ultimately, he is responsible for his decisions, and we are now witnessing consequences that many consider to be a clear demonstration of poor judgment.”
Trudeau, now 52, has been under mounting pressure to resign for months. In June, the Liberals lost a by-election in a Toronto district they had held for decades. Similarly, they lost another seat in Montreal in September. However, Freeland’s resignation, amid economic threats posed by Trump’s incoming administration, has turned discontent into a full-blown crisis for Trudeau. The Prime Minister has canceled all of his usual year-end television interviews. Collins warned that more Liberals would exit politics if Trudeau insists on staying in power.
Meanwhile, Ian de Verteuil, an equity strategist at CIBC Capital Markets, discussed Donald Trump’s tariff threats against Canada in an interview with Bloomberg. He argued that Trump’s threat to impose sweeping tariffs on Canadian imports on his first day in office could hurt American consumers and is unlikely to proceed without major revisions.
De Verteuil emphasized that Trump should be taken seriously, though not always literally. He added that Trump’s slogan, “Make America Great Again,” would be put to the test if a 25% tariff were imposed on Mexican and Canadian goods. Such tariffs could harm American consumers and are unlikely to be implemented.
He further noted that tariffs are unlikely to target fossil fuels or auto parts from Canada, given the U.S. economy’s heavy reliance on these imports. However, companies exporting consumer goods such as clothing and vehicles to the U.S. are at greater risk.
De Verteuil also highlighted that Mexican companies exporting goods to the U.S. would face more significant impacts, as Trump’s border concerns primarily focus on America’s southern neighbor. In conclusion, he stated that Canada remains a vital trade partner for the U.S., and major challenges for Canada in 2025 are highly improbable.
