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Reversal of US Energy Policy Could Push Crude Oil LowerNYMEX: Micro Crude Oil Futures ( NYMEX:MCL1! ) #Microfutures On January 20th, President Donald Trump signed an executive order, “Declaring a National Energy Emergency”. This sets the tone of US energy policy for the next 4 years. By declaring national emergency and raising energy independence to the highest level of national security, President Trump introduced sweeping measures to fast-track energy infrastructure and regulatory approvals. In a 180-degree reversal, the new administration abandoned the Climate Change policies championed by the Biden presidency. Other executive orders saw the US quitting the Paris Climate Accord and cancelling pushes into renewable energy and electric vehicles. This marks a major turning point in the price trend of crude oil. Since Mid-January, WTI prices have already retreated 11%, while Brent was lowered by 10%. In my opinion, WTI futures could fall to the pre-Pandemic price range of $45-$64 a barrel, with a midpoint target at $55 in 2025. My logic follows: US oil production will rise, benefiting from the new energy policy As of 2023, the U.S. produced about 14.7% of the world's crude oil, surpassing Saudi Arabia and Russia. This makes the US the largest crude oil producer globally. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated the domestic oil production at 13.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024. It recently forecasted the US output to grow to 13.5 and 13.6 million b/d, in 2025 and 2026, respectively. Considering the complete makeover of US energy policy, I think the next EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) would show measurable upticks in its production forecast. Threats of Tariffs could curtail global oil demand Last week, the US slapped a 25% tariff for Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff for China on top of those imposed during the 2018-19 trade conflict. While the tariffs for Canada and Mexico are on hold pending trade negotiation, China retaliated and announced new tariffs on US goods at rates ranging from 10% to 15%. Rising global trade tensions would increase costs and raise the prices on store shelves. Declining sales would lead to production reduction. Eventually, a slowdown in economic activities will result in less demand for crude oil. The January STEO report forecasts global oil consumption growth to be less than the pre-pandemic trend, at an increase of 1.3 million b/d in 2025 and 1.1 million b/d in 2026. With the impact of higher tariffs, I expect the next STEO to show further deterioration in its oil consumption forecast. Lifting of oil embargo could release more supply to the global market The new administration campaigned to end global military conflicts. In my opinion, a US brokered peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine is on the horizon. Iran and the US could resume talks soon. Both scenarios could see the existing oil embargo being lifted. In 2024, Russia is the 3rd largest oil producer with 10.75 million barrels a day, while Iran ranks 7th with 4.08 million. Together, they contributed to over 18% of global oil output. Market trades on expectation. Oil prices would respond quickly with the emergence of any planned negotiation. OPEC+ to increase crude oil production The STEO forecasts the OPEC+ to relax production cuts. Following an annual decline of 1.3 million b/d in 2024, it expects growth of 0.2 million b/d in 2025 and a further increase of 0.6 million b/d in 2026 from OPEC+ producers as voluntary production cuts unwind. Additionally, STEO expects further production growth from countries outside of OPEC+, including the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana. Commitment of Traders shows bearish sentiment The CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that on February 4th, total Open Interest (OI) for NYMEX WTI Futures is 1,765,342 contracts. “Managed Money” (i.e., hedge funds) own 204,272 in Long, 60,136 in Short and 393,098 in Spreading. • While they maintain a long-short ratio of 3.4:1, hedge funds have reduced long positions by 36,310 (-15%) while increasing short positions by 11,085 (+16%). • This indicates that “Smart Money” is becoming less bullish on oil. Crude oil prices typically rise on the back of geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, and economic growth. We are likely to witness the retracing on all these fronts. Another reason for the rising prices in most financial assets has been the abundance of liquidity, leading by the $2-trillion-a-year US deficit spending. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) made significant headways into cutting government expenditures. This could help remove some of the premiums on asset prices. Trade Setup with Micro WTI Futures If a trader shares a similar view, he could express his opinion by shorting the NYMEX Micro WTI Futures ( GETTEX:MCL ). MCL contracts have a notional value of 100 barrels of crude oil. With Friday settlement price of $71.0, each March contract (MCLH5) has a notional value of $7,100. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $586. NYMEX crude oil futures are among the most liquid commodity contracts in the world. On Friday, standard WTI futures ( NYSE:CL , 1000 barrels) has a trade volume of 784,820 contracts and an OI of 1,796,265. Micro WTI has a trade volume of 54,038 and OI of 19,178. The Micro contracts allow traders to tap into the deep liquidity of NYMEX WTI market, while requiring only 1/10th of the initial margin. Hypothetically, a trader shorts March MCL contract and WTI prices pull back to our upper price range of $64. A short futures position would gain $700 (= (71 - 64) x $100). Using the initial margin as a cost base, a theoretical return would be +119.5% (= 700 / 586). The risk of shorting crude oil futures is rising oil prices. Investors could lose part of or all their initial margin. A trader could set a stop loss while establishing his short position. In the above example, the trader could set stop loss at $75 when entering the short order at $71. If crude oil continues to rise, the maximum loss would be $400 ( = (75-71) *100). To learn more about all the Micro futures and options contracts traded on CME Group platform, you can check out the following site: www.cmegroup.com The Leap trading competition, #TheFuturesLeap, sponsored by CME Group, is currently running at TradingView. I encourage you to join The Leap to sharpen your trading skills and put your trading strategies at test, competing with your peers in this paper trading challenge sponsored by CME Group. www.tradingview.com Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:MCL1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
2
#TRUMP/USDT#TRUMP The price is moving in a descending channel on the 1-hour frame and is adhering to it well and is heading to break it strongly upwards and retest it We have a bounce from the lower limit of the descending channel, this support is at a price of 15.35 We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to break and retest, which supports the rise We have a trend to stabilize above the Moving Average 100 Entry price 17.14 First target 19.62 Second target 22.00 Third target 24.32
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal
2
#TRUMPUSDT expecting further decline📉 SHORT BYBIT:TRUMPUSDT.P from $17.400 🛡 Stop Loss: $17.966 ⏱ 1H Timeframe 📍 Overview: ➡️ BYBIT:TRUMPUSDT.P is showing signs of weakness after forming local resistance. The price failed to hold above $17.966 , confirming seller pressure. ➡️ POC (Point of Control) is positioned above the current price, indicating that liquidity has already been distributed in the upper range, while demand zones are shifting lower. ➡️ The price tested $17.400 and started moving downward, reinforcing the bearish scenario. If this level breaks, a move toward $16.412 is likely, where demand was previously observed. ➡️ The $16.412 level may serve as a short-term bounce zone, so monitoring price reaction is crucial. ⚡ Plan: ➡️ Short entry after breaking $17.400 , confirming buyer weakness. ➡️ Risk management through Stop-Loss at $17.966 , placed above the nearest liquidity zone. ➡️ Primary downside target – $16.412 , where buyers may step in. 🎯 TP Targets: 💎 TP 1: $16.412 🚀 BYBIT:TRUMPUSDT.P continues to lose momentum — expecting further decline! 📢 BYBIT:TRUMPUSDT.P remains under pressure, and the current market structure suggests a potential continuation of the downtrend. If the asset breaks below $17.400, the decline may accelerate. 📢 It is crucial to monitor volume—if selling volume increases, the bearish trend will strengthen. 📢 However, the $16.412 level may act as a reversal zone, so partial profit-taking could be a smart strategy.
Short
by MoriartyTrading
3
#TRU/USDT#TRU The price is moving in a descending channel on the 1-hour frame and is adhering to it well and is heading to break it strongly upwards and retest it We have a bounce from the lower limit of the descending channel, this support is at a price of 0.0350 We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to break and retest, which supports the rise We have a trend to stabilize above the moving average 100 Entry price 0.0438 First target 0.0511 Second target 0.0553 Third target 00630
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal
Traded UVIX This Morning, Just After Open. Position Closed NowIs CBOE:UVIX right for you? Would you also like to earn when the market is down? If so check it out, I traded $UIVX right after the open and have already closed the position. I usually don't day trade, but on a down day like today I couldn't resist trying the downside with Ultra Short Futures Options. These instruments aren't for everyone, & most people who own them lose money over time, so please be careful and only risk as much as you can afford to lose.
CBOE:UVIX
by CryptoQue
$TRUMP Coin Tanks 80% from All-Time High – What's Next?Market Overview The $TRUMP coin, a Solana-based meme token inspired by former President Donald Trump, has seen a dramatic decline, shedding nearly 80% of its value from its $75.35 ATH recorded on January 19, 2025. The coin, which launched on January 18, 2025, skyrocketed overnight, attracting traders eager to capitalize on its meteoric rise. However, a lack of development and utility has raised concerns, leading to a rapid sell-off. Technical Analysis As of the time of writing, $TRUMP is trading at $17.75, marking a 17% decline in 24 hours. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 31, signaling oversold conditions. While this hints at a potential buying opportunity, the coin remains highly volatile. Key Technical Levels: - Immediate support: $17.00 (psychological support) - Major support: $15.00 (next critical level in case of further decline) - Resistance: $25.00 (short-term bounce potential) - Bullish breakout: A reversal above $30 could reignite bullish momentum With major exchanges like Binance, Coinbase, and Kraken listing $TRUMP, the coin remains highly liquid, but whether it can reclaim its previous highs remains uncertain. Fundamental Analysis Despite its steep decline, $TRUMP maintains a market cap of $3.55 billion, securing a CoinMarketCap ranking of #34. It has a circulating supply of 200 million tokens with a max supply of nearly 1 billion, which could lead to future dilution concerns. The token's price action has been largely speculative, driven by hype rather than tangible fundamentals. The lack of a defined roadmap, development plans, or intrinsic utility poses significant risks. However, its **strong meme appeal and cultural relevance** continue to attract traders. Future Outlook While some traders expected $TRUMP to reach $100, the current price action suggests a prolonged consolidation or further decline unless new catalysts emerge. The token’s fate depends on market sentiment, potential utility developments, and broader crypto trends. Key Considerations: ✅ Oversold RSI – Possible short-term bounce ⚠️ No intrinsic utility – High risk, purely speculative 📉 High volatility – Not for the faint-hearted Final Thoughts $TRUMP coin's meteoric rise and steep fall highlight the high-risk nature of meme tokens. While its presence on major exchanges adds credibility, the lack of fundamental value makes it highly unpredictable. Traders should exercise caution and manage risk appropriately, as the next move for $TRUMP remains uncertain.
Long
by DEXWireNews
TRUMP Token Analysis: Is This Best Buy Zone Before a +40% PUMP!?Today, I decided to re-analyze the OFFICIAL TRUMP token( BINANCE:TRUMPUSDT ) for you; if you want to have the TRUMP token in your portfolio, in what range can you buy this token, and at what prices can you sell it with a profit or even prevent further loss? TRUMP Token started correcting after all the hype, after the news of the launch of the Official Melania Meme token ( BINANCE:MELANIAUSDT.P ) and has dropped more than -60% from its All-Time High(ATH) . TRUMP Token is moving near the upper line of the descending channel and the Resistance zone($32-$30) . According to the theory of Elliott waves , the TRUMP token seems to be completing microwave 5 of microwave c of the main wave Y . The main wave Y could end in a Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and be another opportunity to buy TRUMP Token , of course, with capital management in mind . I expect the TRUMP token to start rising again after the -15% decline from the close of the lower high line of the descending channel and the Support lines and at least a +20% increase . Note: Of course, the FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate decision, and Press Conference can affect the general trend of the crypto market and the TRUMP token. Note: If the TRUMP token goes below $22.00, there is a possibility that the fall will continue. Note: However, concerns have been raised about supply concentration, with 85% of the tokens controlled by Trump's team, who have reportedly liquidated approximately $500 million worth of tokens. This situation poses potential risks for retail investors. What do you think about the TRUMP token? Can the TRUMP Token rise again, or is it forming a Dead Cat Bounce Pattern ? Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. OFFICIAL TRUMP Analyze (TRUMPUSDT), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas . Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
39
NAS100 - Tariff War, the scourge of the stock market?!The index is below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index corrects towards the indicated trend line, we can look for the next short-term buying positions in Nasdaq. The Nasdaq being in the demand range will provide us with the conditions to buy it with a reasonable reward to risk. While the world remained focused on the first week of the Trump administration, a relatively unknown Chinese startup shocked the tech industry last week by releasing an open-source AI tool. This tool, developed with significantly fewer resources and at a much lower cost than its American counterparts like ChatGPT, has managed to match and, in some cases, surpass its U.S. rivals. The startup, DeepSeek, has gone even further by making its tool freely available for download. Only those who wish to use the company’s API, which allows seamless integration with existing applications, are required to pay a fee—amounting to just 3% of the cost of competing tools. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Saturday imposing sweeping tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China. He pressured these nations to curb the flow of fentanyl and illegal immigrants from Mexico and Canada into the U.S.—a move that could reignite inflation and hinder global economic growth. In response, Mexico and Canada, two of the U.S.‘s largest trading partners, immediately vowed to impose retaliatory tariffs. China, on the other hand, announced that it would challenge Trump’s decision at the World Trade Organization (WTO) and take additional “countermeasures.” Under three executive orders, starting Tuesday, imports from Mexico and Canada will be subject to a 25% tariff, while Chinese goods will face a 10% levy. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responded by stating that Canada will impose a 25% tariff on $30 billion worth of U.S. goods starting Tuesday, followed by an additional $125 billion in tariffs three weeks later. Trudeau warned that these tariffs would increase grocery and fuel costs for American consumers, potentially shut down auto assembly plants, and restrict the supply of nickel, potash, uranium, steel, and aluminum. He also urged Canadians to avoid traveling to the U.S. and boycott American products. As investors looked for clarity from this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, Wall Street was left uncertain, now anticipating that the Fed will likely keep rates unchanged until late in the year.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Ali_PSND
Trading Gold Futures Amid Global Trade TensionsCOMEX: Micro Gold Futures ( COMEX_MINI:MGC1! ) #Microfutures The United States will be implementing new tariffs on Saturday, February 1st, including 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as well as a 10% duty on all goods from China. These countries are the Top 3 U.S. trading partners, contributing to 40% of all goods and services imported into the US in 2023, collectively. On Friday, gold prices surpassed the key $2,800 mark for the first time ever. Spot gold rose 0.6% to $2,810.55 per troy ounce, after hitting a record high of $2,817.23. The record rally is fueled by a flight to safety as trade tensions rise. Gold futures are trading at a premium to spot gold prices. The lead April contract of the benchmark COMEX gold futures settled at $2,833 on Friday. Looking back, the trade tensions between the US and China have intensified since 2018. This time, higher tariffs will be applied globally, not only to competitors of U.S. interests, but also to close allies such as Canada, Mexico and the European Union. Lessons from the US-China Trade Conflict How would the global trade conflicts shape up? Uncertainties remain elevated. Luckily, the US-China trade conflict provides us historical lessons with present-day relevancy. Let’s have a quick review of the major timeline of key events: • July 6, 2018: The trade conflict begins as the US imposes 25% tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods. China retaliates with tariffs on an equal amount of US goods. • August 23, 2018: The US imposes additional 25% tariffs on another $16 billion worth of Chinese goods. China responds with tariffs on $16 billion worth of US goods. • September 24, 2018: The US imposes 10% tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. China retaliates with tariffs on $60 billion worth of US goods. • December 1, 2018: A temporary truce is agreed upon during the G20 summit, with a 90-day period for negotiations. • January 15, 2020: The "Phase One" trade deal is signed, easing some tariffs and committing China to increase purchases of US goods. Gold prices responded quickly at each stage of the trade conflict, creating ample trading opportunities. On June 7, 2022, I published “Event-Driven Strategy Focusing on Global Crisis” on TradingView, based on my own trading experience from 2018-19. A link to this write-up is provided here for your information: In summary, I observed patterns in gold prices while the trade conflict was progressing, and designed event-driven strategy based on Game Theory. Here are the highlights: • US initiated new tariffs; Gold prices went up (“Risk On”) • China retaliated with new tariffs; Gold prices went up further ("Risk On”) • US and China announced trade negotiations; Gold prices went down (“Risk Off”) • Negotiations broke down followed by new tariffs; Gold prices went up (“Risk On”) • Negotiations resumed; Gold prices went down (“Risk Off”) • Trade agreement was reached; Gold prices went down sharply (“Risk Off”) The “Fight-and-Talk” could go multiple rounds, pushing tariffs to higher levels. Just how high? China previously maintained a 12% import tariff on U.S. pork products. In its first round of trade retaliation in 2018, China imposed an additional 25% tariff on US pork. A month later, another 25% was added. Pork tariff went up a further 10% in the third round of retaliation, making the total tariff on US pork at a mind-boggling 72%! As shown in the chart, gold responded in an observable manner following each key event. This repetitive pattern made it possible to set up trades in anticipation of the next moves. The Sequence of Next Moves in Trade Conflicts Learning from the previous experience, we could simulate a series of scenarios when new tariffs are imposed on goods from Canada, Mexico, China and the EU. • US initiates new tariffs; Gold prices go up (“Risk On”) • The other country retaliates with new tariffs; Gold prices go up further ("Risk On”) • The two countries announced trade negotiations; Gold prices go down (“Risk Off”) • Trade agreement is reached; Gold prices go down sharply (“Risk Off”) In my opinion, the countries involved would retaliate but may want to avoid a costly trade conflict dragging on. With the brutality of the last trade conflict still fresh in mind, trade deals could be reached more quickly. From a trading perspective, the Fight-and-Talk patterns could be repeated multiple times, making our event-driven strategy reusable. Given that Canada, Mexico, China and the EU are the biggest U.S. trading partners, the price swing in gold could be more volatile. Conflicts with smaller trading partners, such as Taiwan and the Southeastern Asian countries, may not trigger big moves in gold. The CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that on January 28th, total Open Interest (OI) for Gold Futures is 577,505, up 15% from the level last November when the U.S. election was held. Interest in using gold for trading or hedging goes up with the escalation of risk. “Swap Dealers” own 363,051 contracts, making them the largest trader category to own gold futures positions. • Swap Dealers have 29,725 in Long, 272,549 in Short, and 60,777 in Spreading • The long-short ratio of 1:9 indicates that “Smart Money” is overwhelmingly bearish There is another supporting factor for a bearish view: A key driver in gold prices is the geopolitical crisis. President Trump announced that he planned to meet with President Xi of China within the first 100 days in office. A meeting between President Trump and Russian President Putin is also being planned. As we know, bullion is a preferred asset during times of turmoil. We may soon see the geopolitical risks unwinding, which will send gold prices sharply down. This could happen when Russia and Ukraine end their military conflict with a peace treaty. Trade Setup with Micro Gold Futures If a trader shares a similar view, he could express his opinion by shorting the COMEX Micro Gold Futures ( AMEX:MGC ). MGC contracts have a notional value of 10 troy ounces. With Friday settlement price of 2,833, each April contract (MGCJ5) has a notional value of $28,330. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $1,150. The MGC contracts are very liquid. On Thursday, MGC has a daily trade volume of 126,712 contracts and an Open Interest of 30,633. Hypothetically, a trader shorts April MGC contract and gold prices pull back 5% to 2,691. A short futures position would gain $1,420 (=142 x $10). Using the initial margin as cost base, a theoretical return would be +123% (= 1420 / 1150). The risk of shorting gold futures is rising gold prices. Investors could lose part of or all their initial margin. Traders could express the same view with the standard COMEX Gold (GC) futures or the newly launched 1-ounce gold futures, which represent just 1/10 the size of a Micro Gold (MGC) futures contract and 1/100 of GC futures contract. To learn more about all the Micro futures and options contracts traded on CME Group platform, you can check out the following site: www.cmegroup.com The Leap trading competition, sponsored by CME Group, will begin at TradingView on February 3rd. I encourage you to join The Leap and compete to be the best in CME Group futures trading and win a share of $25,000 in cash prizes or an additional six months to your TradingView subscription. www.tradingview.com Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
5
USDCAD - Where will the Canadian dollar go?!The USDCAD pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in a range. As long as the pair is in this range, the best thing to do is to sell at the top and buy at the bottom. A break of this range to the top or bottom will allow us to continue its rise and fall. The Bank of Canada has announced its decision to lower the policy interest rate to 3% after six consecutive reductions. Additionally, it confirmed the end of quantitative tightening (QT) and the gradual resumption of asset purchases starting in March. These measures reflect the central bank’s effort to stabilize the economy and support sustainable growth. The Bank of Canada emphasized three key points: • Inflation has approached the 2% target. After a period of high volatility, inflation expectations have moderated, and price pressures—except in the housing sector—have eased. • Lower interest rates have increased household spending power and gradually boosted economic activity, particularly in the housing sector and durable goods purchases such as automobiles. • New U.S. trade policies remain a significant risk to Canada’s economy. Any escalation in trade tensions could negatively impact economic growth. One of the first sectors to benefit from the rate cut is the housing market.Lower borrowing costs are expected to attract new buyers; however, the central bank anticipates a more balanced increase in housing prices over time. The recent slowdown in construction activity and declining rental prices indicate that investment appeal in this sector has somewhat diminished. For investors and entrepreneurs, the lower interest rates present an opportunity to secure cheaper financing and expand their businesses. Sectors such as startups, technology, and export-driven manufacturing are expected to gain the most from this policy. With inflation stabilizing around 2% and the economy recovering, the Bank of Canada sees no immediate need for further rate cuts. However, potential economic disruptions from U.S. trade policies could alter this outlook. Reports suggest that if U.S. President Donald Trump proceeds with a proposed 25% tariff on Canadian imports, the Canadian government plans to implement financial aid measures similar to those used during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, these programs require parliamentary approval, and given that the Liberal government lacks a parliamentary majority, there is no guarantee they will pass. All opposition parties have expressed their intent to oust the current government, meaning any economic stimulus package would require support from the New Democratic Party (NDP). The NDP has backed the Liberal government over the past three years. The Canadian Parliament is currently adjourned until March 24, allowing the Liberal Party to select a new leader to replace Justin Trudeau, with Mark Carney as a likely successor. However, an early leadership decision may occur before the scheduled date. Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada, stated that household debt is not a sustainable driver of consumption growth. He expressed greater concern about declining business investment due to tariff threats, arguing that such policies could have a more significant impact on the Canadian dollar than interest rate differentials. He also reaffirmed that the Bank of Canada believes inflation has been successfully contained. The central bank aims to ensure that any CPI increases resulting from tariffs remain temporary and that the consequences of trade policies are managed to minimize sudden economic disruptions.
by Ali_PSND
Rotation from Solana to Base and Sui?Previous Solana breakouts have seen strength in performance for Sui and Base following. Americoins will need to be balanced by Trump. He has shown signs of supporting across the board. Rather than one or two picked winners. Supporting Base and Sui will likely be something Trump is interested in. Trumps exposure now to Solana is massive and he likely wants to achieve two things. Liquidity to take profit. Massive tax reduction on those profits. Two birds with one stone if he brings down taxes on specifically made in america coins. He is building exposure in Ethereum too. We have many signs that there will be rotation. Regardless of long term dominance.. there becomes a point rotation is too hard to ignore. Bases leading dex Aerodrome has ~2x revenue to market cap. Perp/spot dex on Sui also has a ~2x revenue to market cap.
by SoftQuant
TRUMPUDST TRADING PONIT UPDATE >READ THE CHAPTIANBuddy'S dear friend 👋 SMC Trading Signals Update 🗾🗺️ crypto Traders SMC-Trading Point update you on New technical analysis setup for crypto Trump coin 🪙. I think 🤔 trump USDT Boom 🤯 again back up trand 😱 24. 86 shtroing support higher level pullback up trand Key Resistance level 32.02 + 39.94 + 47.38 Key support higher level 24.86 Mr SMC Trading point Support 💫 My hard analysis setup like And Following 🤝 me that star ✨ game ☺️🎮
Long
by SMC-Trading-Point
Nvidia Stock Goes 'DeepSeek', Ahead of Earnings CallNvidia's stock has experienced significant volatility recently, largely influenced by the emergence of a new AI model from Chinese startup DeepSeek. This model, known as R1, reportedly rivals the capabilities of advanced models from major U.S. tech companies like OpenAI and Google, but does so using less powerful and cheaper chips. This development has raised concerns among investors about the sustainability of Nvidia's market dominance and the high valuations of U.S. tech stocks. Impact of DeepSeek on Nvidia Stock Stock Performance. On January 27, 2025, Nvidia's shares plummeted by over 16%, marking its largest intraday drop since August 2023. This decline wiped more than half-a-trillion US dollars from Nvidia's market capitalization. The stock fell approximately 12.5% in early trading, reflecting widespread investor anxiety about the implications of DeepSeek's advancements. Investor Sentiment. The introduction of DeepSeek's AI model has prompted a reevaluation of the heavy investments made by U.S. tech firms in AI technologies. Analysts noted that if DeepSeek can achieve competitive results with lower costs, it may lead to reduced demand for Nvidia's high-end chips. This has caused a ripple effect across the tech sector, with other semiconductor stocks also experiencing declines. Market Reactions. The broader tech market was affected as well, with the Nasdaq index falling nearly 4% in pre-market trading. Other companies linked to AI and technology also saw significant drops; for instance, ASML and Broadcom fell by 7% and over 12%, respectively. Perspectives by Fundamental and Technical Analyst Skepticism About DeepSeek. While some analysts expressed skepticism about DeepSeek's ability to compete effectively without advanced chips, they acknowledged that its success could force U.S. companies to reconsider their strategies regarding AI investments and efficiency. For example, Citi analysts maintained a "buy" rating on Nvidia, suggesting that major U.S. companies are unlikely to shift away from using Nvidia's GPUs in the near term. Concerns Over Valuations. Analysts at Wedbush highlighted that U.S. tech stocks are currently valued at premium levels, which makes them vulnerable to any disruptions in perceived technological superiority. They noted that even small developments like those from DeepSeek could significantly impact stock prices due to inflated expectations surrounding AI advancements. Future Outlook. Despite the immediate negative impact on Nvidia's stock, some analysts believe that concerns may be exaggerated and that U.S. firms are still well-positioned for long-term growth in AI technologies. They argue that while DeepSeek's model is impressive, it does not yet match the comprehensive infrastructure and ecosystem that American tech giants have developed. Technical Outlook. The main technical graph for Nvidia stock (1-week resolution) indicates on epic breakthrough of upside channel, which has been alive for more than last two years, until ̶D̶o̶n̶a̶l̶d̶ ̶T̶r̶u̶m̶p̶ someone entered ̶a̶ ̶c̶h̶a̶t̶ White House. Ahead of Nvidia Earnings call (scheduled on February, 26) our 'fancy-nancy' Analyst Team is strongly against any Nvidia stock purchase below ready to be lost, $130 per share level. Potentially 52-week SMA can support a stock for a while near $115 a share, otherwise we believe Nvidia stock will dive below $100 level again. Conclusion In summary, the rise of DeepSeek represents a pivotal moment for Nvidia and the broader tech sector, challenging existing assumptions about AI development costs and market dynamics. The ongoing situation will likely lead to further scrutiny of investment strategies within the industry as stakeholders assess the long-term implications of this emerging competition.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by PandorraResearch
Public trade #18 - #TRUMP price analysisFrom a high of $82, the price of $TRUMP fell -70%, thus "shaving off" a lot of big-shoulder hype traders. 1️⃣ Today, OKX:TRUMPUSDT is holding up quite well, so I would like to believe that the bottom has already been reached and that there will be a moment of growth, at least to $48. 2️⃣ On the other hand, according to the classics of the genre, after an abnormal pump, an asset usually loses -80%, which is around $16-16.50. Therefore, if the #Trump price moves towards updating the lows around $24.5, then we forget about it until $16.50 And we also remind you that the trading campaign continues until 03.02 👉
by P_S_trade
3
US100 Trade LogUS100 analysis: Three "buy zones" identified for potential entries with distinct risk levels. 1. "Zone 1" : Near the "4H Kijun" and prior weak high, aiming for short-term rebound with controlled risk. 2. "Zone 2" : Aligns with deeper "4H FVG" support. This setup offers a higher conviction for a reversal targeting the mid-range. 3. "Zone 3" : Major buy zone with strong confluence at the "PML" and "1H FVG" . Willing to risk 2% for a potential return of up to 10%, depending on upcoming earnings. Each zone represents escalating risk-reward setups, ensuring precise risk management across macro support structures. Consider macro headwinds and earnings season's volatility.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Fondera
TRUMP | Donald Trump signs RADICAL Crypto Executive OrderPOTUS Donald Trump has issued an executive order aimed at creating a streamlined regulatory framework for digital assets, with a focus on cryptocurrencies. One of the key elements of the order is the creation of a National Digital Asset Stockpile. This initiative is intended to establish a strategic reserve of digital assets to enhance economic security and encourage innovation in the sector. Additionally, the order calls for the formation of a specialized working group to develop a federal regulatory framework for digital assets, including stablecoins. This group will be led by David Sacks, the White House's AI and Crypto Czar, and will include senior officials from the Treasury, the U.S. SEC, and other key agencies. Notably, the executive order explicitly bans federal agencies from initiating or supporting the development of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), maintaining a focus on decentralized cryptocurrencies. The creation of the Presidential Working Group on Digital Assets is expected to significantly influence the future of cryptocurrencies, NFTs, stablecoins, and other blockchain technologies. The order also reverses previous directives from the prior administration that hindered innovation in digital assets. These outdated frameworks had prompted many U.S.-based crypto companies to relocate to more favorable jurisdictions, such as the UAE or Singapore. President Trump's recent executive order is likely to have significant effects on both Bitcoin and Trumpcoin. Bitcoin: This pro-crypto stance including the establishment of a National Digital Asset Stockpile and the creation of a federal regulatory framework, could encourage investor confidence in Bitcoin. This supportive regulatory environment may lead to increased institutional adoption and public trust, potentially driving Bitcoin's price higher. However, the market's reaction has been mixed and we're not seeing an immediate result reflecting in the price just yet. Trumpcoin: Trumpcoin could experience heightened interest due to the executive order. The administration's favorable view on digital assets might attract investors to Trumpcoin, anticipating that it will benefit from increased visibility and potential use cases. _____________________________ BINANCE:TRUMPUSDT BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Long
by CryptoCheck-
1
TRUMPUSDT - Looks ready for another bullish rally!The Trump token is an investment project as long as President Trump is in power in the United States. It is essentially a meme coin, but this token is different from other cryptocurrencies since it is the official token representing the U.S. President. On the 4-hour timeframe, a falling wedge pattern is forming. If this pattern is broken, the token will be poised to achieve a 100% gain from the current level. Best regards Ceciliones🎯
Long
by ceciliones
6
XAUUSD: Trump set the markets on fire!Gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour time frame and is in its ascending channel. Our initial position today will be to buy gold. If gold rises to the previous ATH, we can look for selling positions at the ceiling indicated by the upward trend line. It appears that Trump has softened his stance on tariffs, a shift that has significantly impacted the dollar. He has stated that he prefers using tariffs as a tool to control China rather than directly imposing them. Currently, a 10% tariff on Chinese imports might be implemented, though this is far from the 60% tariff he had proposed during his campaign. If Trump has taken a more lenient approach toward China, could he adopt a softer stance on other countries as well? Perhaps. Regardless, the tailwind that supported the dollar since December has officially shifted direction. The dollar seemed to hold Trump’s “trump card”—quite literally—at the start of the new year. But was that truly the case? If you recall, Trump’s stance on the dollar this time contrasts sharply with his first term in office. Now, Trump favors a weaker dollar—or at least that’s what he said last year. The only viable option to achieve this is pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates more quickly, and it seems that’s precisely what he’s trying to do. He now claims that he “understands interest rates better than the Federal Reserve” and insists that rates should be reduced “immediately.” However, this does not necessarily mean the Fed will alter its current policy. The Federal Reserve’s mandate typically operates beyond political influence, but Trump could ease the situation if he merely talks about tariffs without taking action. This would help alleviate inflation concerns, but we might need to wait a few more months to be certain, which is likely what Federal Reserve policymakers would prefer. That said, one can never rule out the possibility of Trump abruptly changing his mind. For now, however, it seems the dollar has started the new year under Trump’s influence. As tariff concerns fade, the focus will shift back to inflation and labor market data to determine where the economy heads from here.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND