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MES: Ice and Fire Could Blow the U.S. Economy Off its CourseCME: Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Futures ( CME_MINI:MES1! ) #Microfutures In “A Song of Ice and Fire”, American author George Martin painted a mystical land where dragons spit out flame to destroy a whole city and a winter that last one hundred years. Game of Thrones, the popular HBO TV series, was adapted from Martin’s book. In 2025, we seem to be reliving these moments. California wildfires have claimed dozens of lives, burnt down thousands of homes, and caused an estimated $250 billion in damage. Meanwhile, Winter Storm Blair raged coast-to-coast, bringing heavy snow across the Great Plain to Mid-Atlantic. The storms shut down interstate highways, caused thousands of airport delays and racked up 350,000 power outages. At the time of this writing, Polar Vortex is bringing freezing temperature back to the lower 48 states. These weather perils are very destructive. In my opinion, the forces of nature could cause real damage to the entire U.S. economy. Firstly, we could see a rebound in inflation The Bureau of Statistics (BLS) reported that US CPI increased 0.4% in December and went up 2.9% year-over-year (YoY). Of which, the energy index decreased 0.5% YoY with energy commodities gasoline and fuel oil falling 3.4% and 13.1%, respectively. In contrast, energy services such as electricity increased 2.8% and natural gas (piped) rose 4.9% YoY. The chart shows a correlation between CPI and natural gas prices. The underlying logic is the U.S. economic reliance on natural gas. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), about 43.1% of the electricity in the country was generated by natural gas. In “Nat Gas: Trading the Weather”, I explained how cold temperatures increase natural gas demand for generating electricity and heating up homes. Higher natural gas prices affect not just the storm-hit regions, the entire country also bears a higher cost for energy services. Larger utility bills raise the cost of producing and distributing all goods and services. A leading indicator: When natural gas prices rise, inflation will likely go up. Conclusion: As natural gas went up sharply, we could expect a higher CPI for January. Secondly, we could see economic slowdown and higher unemployment Many businesses in the passage of winter storms suffered loss of sales. People in parts of Los Angles were evacuated. The total cost for insurance payout, loss of revenue, debris cleanup and rebuilding amounts to hundreds of billions of dollars. Total US GDP was $28 trillion last year, or about $2.3 trillion per month. A quick calculation shows that the weather perils could shave off 1/10th of the US national output for the month of January! Many S&P 500 companies are based in California or in the storm-hit regions. The actual damage to them will be revealed when they report quarterly earnings in April and May. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will report Q1 GDP on April 30th. US unemployment has been on the rise since mid-2023. In my opinion, the A.I. driven technological revolution is responsible for many High-Tech layoffs. On January 10th, the BLS released its nonfarm payroll report and showed that unemployment in the Information sector was 98,000 in December 2024, up from 86,000 a year ago. December is the busiest month for the Retail sector. However, retailers report total unemployment of 897,000 for the month, up 87,000 or 11% from December 2023. When the BLS updates its payroll report in January, I expect to see higher unemployment data. The month-to-month data could be even worse, as January is usually a slow month after the December holiday season. In addition, winter storms and wildfires would push more businesses to shut down and lay off employees. Finally, the uncertainty around economic policies under the new administration I expect President Trump to raise “ice and fire” on his own. If his first term is any guide, we would see plenty of drastic policy changes impacting various industries. Uncertainties are not well embraced in the world of investment. Any new policy initiative could bring the market to chaos when the news breaks, regardless of its long-term effect. During the first term, important policies (such as new tariff) were usually announced from Twitter tweets. This time around, they would likely come out of Truth Social tweets. Trading with Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Futures In my opinion, the U.S. stock market will face more volatility in the coming months. Key economic data could be disappointing for investors. • When the January nonfarm payroll report is released on February 7th, monthly employment data could trend lower, while unemployment rate ticks up. Signals of economic weakness could send the stock market lower. • When the January CPI data is released on February 12th, the headline inflation could move higher. If this is the case, the Fed is less likely to lower interest rates. The stock market will face downward pressure. • The Fed will meet on January 29th. According to CME Group FedWatch Tool, the futures market prices a Fed decision of no-change at 97.9%. However, the market consensus shows that Fed Funds rates could drop to 3.25-4.00% by December, indicating 1-4 rate cuts in 2025. The Fed has not committed to any further rate cut. www.cmegroup.com Given these scenarios, a trader could explore short-term opportunities by shorting the S&P 500 prior to the Big Report Dates. The CFTC Commitment of Traders report provides further support to this thinking. The latest data shows that, as of January 14th, Leverage Funds hold 151,543 long positions and 448,908 short positions for E-Mini S&P 500 futures. Despite the S&P nearing its all-time high, “Smart Money” already turns bearish. Shorts outweigh longs by a 3-to-1 ratio. • They are also bearish on Nasdaq 100, by a 1:2 long-short ratio (43,254 vs. 82,724) • This contrasts with the Dow contracts sharply. Leverage funds own Micro Dow by a 3:2 long-short ratio (17,591 vs. 10,051) during the same period. The MES contracts offer smaller-sized versions of CME Group’s benchmark S&P 500 futures (ES) contracts. Micro futures have a contract size of $5 times the S&P 500 index, which is 1/10th of the E-Mini contract. Micro contracts are very liquid. CME Group data shows that 1,095,979 contracts were traded on Thursday, January 16th. Open Interest at the end of the day was 129,228. Buying or selling 1 MES contract requires an initial margin of $1,525. With Friday closing price of 6,040, each March contract (MESH5) has a notional value of $30,200. Compared with investing in stocks, the futures contracts offer a built-in leverage of about 20 times (=30200/1525). Hypothetically, if S&P futures price falls 10% to 5,436, the price change of 604 points (6,040-5,436) will translate into $3,020 in profit for a short position, given each index point equal to $5 for the Micro contract. Using the initial margin of $1,525 as a cost base, the trade would produce a theoretical return of 198% (=3020/1525). The risk to short Micro S&P is that the US stock market continues its spectacular rally. To limit the downside risk, a trader could set up a stop-loss when entering a short position. For illustration, a short trade executed at 6,040 could be combined with a 6,200 stop. If the S&P goes up to 6,500, the trader’s position would be liquidated well before that. The maximum loss would be $800 (= (6200-6040) * $5). Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
2
Skyrexio | TRUMP Is Destroying Crypto Market: When It Will Stop?Hello, Skyrexians! Last 2 days something crazy is happening on the crypto market. KCEX:TRUMPUSDT is absorbing all crypto market and many people warn that it can destroy even Bitcoin. This sounds scary, but we want to remind you that FOMO will destroy your deposit. Anyway TRUMP coin is tradable and our methods are applicable to it. Let's take a look at 15 min time frame. Awesome Oscillator helps us to understand in which wave this asset now. The answer is in the wave 3. Fibonacci extension shows us that this pump is coming to end. Price is inside that target area. Now a lot of FOMO buyers incoming into this coin, we need correction. In our opinion this correction will reach $45 then we will see the wave 5 to $120-130. After that we can face with the huge crash. We will wait for the signal on Bullish/Bearish Reversal Bar Indicator , look how perfectly it worked before! The red dot at $120 is going to be final call for holders to sell. Best regards, Skyrexio Team ___________________________________________________________ Please, boost this article and subscribe our page if you like analysis!
Long
by Skyrexio
5
The TrumpCoin Craze: What’s Really Going On?Yesterday, something truly bizarre happened in the world of crypto. Donald Trump—yes, that Donald Trump—launched his very own cryptocurrency, TrumpCoin ($TRUMP). At first, like everyone else, I thought his account had been hacked. I mean, launching a meme coin just days before his presidential inauguration? Come on... But nope, it’s 100% real. Verified. Like many others, I got curious and, let’s face it, greedy. So, I bought in. The result? I cashed out at a nice 3x profit, enough for a fun night out. But before we dive into the crazy market activity, let me clarify a couple of things: - I’m not a Trump fan. This isn’t about politics. - I don’t think this is a rug pull, at least not intentionally . It seems more like someone who doesn’t fully understand how crypto works decided to jump in. A Brief Timeline of Chaos TrumpCoin was announced on his social platforms, including Truth Social and X (formerly Twitter). Initially, everyone thought it was fake news. I mean, a meme coin with his name on it? Right before inauguration day? It screams “scam.” But soon after, major crypto news outlets confirmed its legitimacy. And then the madness began. Within hours: - Market cap: Over $14 billion at the time of writing(and climbing). - Trading volume: A jaw-dropping $11 billion in just one day. - Price swings: The coin hit a high of $3.30 before dipping below $1.50 and now is above $4. Trump’s company, CIC Digital LLC, reportedly holds 80% of the coin supply, making this a financial windfall for him—even if the project crashes. The Crypto Community Splits This move has divided the crypto space. On one hand, you have people who are treating $TRUMP like any other speculative asset. ( Hi, that’s me! ) On the other, there are folks who see it as a statement of loyalty to Trump. Then there’s a third group—the skeptics—who warn that this could end in disaster. The real problem? Newbies are piling in without understanding what they’re doing. The hype is pulling in people who don’t know a rug pull from a blockchain. They’re buying and buying, hoping to ride the wave, and are likely to get burned when the bubble bursts. Is This a Rug Pull? Let’s address the elephant in the room. With 80% of the supply in Trump’s control, the setup raises eyebrows. But is this an intentional scam? Probably not. If anything, this feels more like a PR stunt gone wild—a way to cash in on his fame and make a splash before returning to the White House. That said, the outcome could still be the same. At some point, the hype will die, the price will tank, and many will lose money. The bigger it gets, the harder it’ll fall. My Take: Enjoy the Ride, but Be Careful TrumpCoin is the epitome of crypto’s wild side: volatile, unpredictable, and more about hype than substance. If you’re diving in, know what you’re getting into. For me, it was a quick trade—buy low, sell high, and get out. But I worry about the inexperienced investors who are holding on, hoping for it to hit $10, $20, or even higher. So, here’s my advice: Don’t invest more than you can afford to lose. Take profits while you can. Remember, just because something is popular doesn’t mean it’s sustainable. Whether $TRUMP reaches a $25 billion, $50 billion market cap or crashes spectacularly, one thing’s for sure—it’s going to be one heck of a ride. Stay safe out there, and happy trading!
Education
by Mihai_Iacob
29
STRUMP - Could it present an incredible buying opportunity?Super Trump looks like more lower lows are ahead. Simplicity is key here. Don't worry about 100 different signals. Look at the core signals that work best for you. Mine are very simple and I know how to make them work and 'jive' together. Volume is bleak, all red. Blue trend line breach is unlikely. Hurst (time) cycles says that we're 1/2 way through a cycle which infers more down. The signals that would give me the highest confidence of a reversal are a few green bars on the volume, a blue trend line decisive break-out and a few more exchanges on-boarding this eclectic meme coin. I wouldn't bother, stay away. Follow and share for more.
by cryptechcapital
1
SOL on the edge ETF Decision & Strategic Reserve News to TriggerTechnical Analysis 1. Descending Channel The price has been consolidating within the descending channel since November, consistently bouncing off the upper and lower boundaries. A breakout above the channel would signify a bullish reversal and a possible surge toward higher resistance levels, such as $220 and $240. 2. Current Momentum The price is near the upper boundary of the channel at $204. A successful breakout accompanied by strong volume would confirm a bullish move. 3. Targets After Breakout Immediate target $220 (previous support turned resistance). Extended target $240-$280, depending on momentum and news impact. News/Event Driven Catalysts: 1. Solana ETF Decision The U.S. SEC decision on a Solana ETF within the next 8 days is a crucial factor. If approved, this would open the doors for institutional investment in Solana, significantly increasing demand and price. Historically, ETF approvals for assets have led to sharp price rallies, often breaking technical resistances. 2. Trump’s Strategic Reserve Plans The announcement that the U.S. President-elect is considering cryptocurrencies like Solana for a national reserve creates a bullish sentiment. If implemented, this could position Solana as a strategic asset in the crypto space, attracting major investors and long-term holders. 3. Market Sentiment: Positive news about an altcoin reserve and Solana’s inclusion could further amplify its status as a leading blockchain in the market, pushing prices higher. Potential Scenarios 1. Bullish Scenario (Breakout) If the SEC approves the Solana ETF and positive sentiment continues, the price is likely to break above the channel. Key levels to watch post-breakout: $220 (immediate resistance), $240, and $280. 2. Bearish Scenario (Rejection) If the ETF is rejected or market sentiment turns negative, the price might face rejection at the upper boundary of the channel. Downside levels to watch: $180 (support within the channel) and $165 (channel bottom). This chart and the accompanying news strongly indicate that Solana is at a pivotal moment. Traders should monitor the channel breakout closely and pay attention to ETF-related news and market reactions. With the potential approval of the ETF and increasing institutional interest, Solana could experience a significant rally, making it a key asset to watch in the short term.
Long
by wolfchemist
USDCAD - which direction will the Canadian dollar go?The USDCAD currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving within the range. The correction of this currency pair towards the demand zone will provide us with the next buying position. The upward movement of this currency pair will make its selling positions attractive. Canada has initiated efforts to mitigate the economic impacts of new U.S. tariffs. These measures include the creation of a critical minerals management unit and defense procurement activities. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau emphasized that Canada would respond firmly and decisively if the U.S. imposes tariffs. Bloomberg reported that Canada is prepared to impose tariffs on $105 billion worth of American goods should the U.S. act first. Quebec’s Premier stated that no official announcements about retaliatory actions would be made until Trump’s plans are clearer, but no options are off the table. Ontario’s Premier added that any retaliatory measures against the U.S. must be stringent. Donald Trump, the U.S. President-elect, campaigned on promises such as imposing heavy import tariffs, tightening immigration policies, reducing regulations, and downsizing the government.However, the economy he is set to oversee may require a different approach from the policies implemented in 2017. Currently, the U.S. economy is growing at an above-average pace, unemployment is near full employment, and inflationary pressures remain significant. This suggests that the U.S. economy might not need fiscal stimulus measures like tax cuts. Furthermore, high asset valuations and rising bond yields could expose the economy to sharper corrections. When Trump took office in 2017, the U.S. economy was still recovering from the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Policies such as tax cuts and import tariffs had varying impacts then. However, today, inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, mortgage rates are near 7%, and government bond yields are close to 5%. These rising yields may reflect market concerns about inflation control and America’s fiscal discipline. In a recent Reuters survey, 25 out of 31 economists predicted that the Bank of Canada would cut interest rates by 0.25% at its January 29 meeting, while the remaining six expected rates to stay unchanged. Gravelle, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, stated that quantitative tightening (QT) is expected to conclude in the first half of 2025. He noted that ending QT would require settlement balances to rise to a range of CAD 50-70 billion, up from the previous estimate of CAD 20-60 billion. Treasury bond purchases are set to commence in the last quarter of this year, initially in small volumes. Following the release of recent data, projections for real personal consumption expenditures in Q4 have risen from 3.3% to 3.7%, while real government spending growth for the same period increased from 2.9% to 3%. However, forecasts for real private domestic investment growth have been revised downward from -0.4% to -0.8%. In its updated forecast, Wells Fargo indicated that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates twice this year by 0.25%, once in September and again in December. Previously, three rate cuts were anticipated for the year.
Short
by Ali_PSND
Dow Jones Likely Trending Up in the Next Four YearsCBOT: Micro E-Mini Dow Jones Futures ( CBOT_MINI:MYM1! ) #Microfutures The United States will enter a new presidency on Monday, January 20th. Will the stock market continue its upward trend under the 47th U.S. President? Before we set our sight on the future, it’s prudent to look back in history first. While it is not a guarantee for future performance, history does provide good intelligence. To find clues for our answer, I conducted an analysis on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). How the Dow Performed Under Different Presidencies My research setup is as follow: • I look at DJIA daily close prices for the past 50 years (from Aug. 1974 to Jan. 2025). This period covers 9 presidents and 13 four-year presidential terms. • For all the presidents, I use their Inauguration Day January 20th as the start day, while setting the end day for January 19th four years later. I compare the changes in DJIA closing prices from start to finish for each 4-year term. • The exceptions: Gerald Ford, who started his term on August 9, 1974, after Richard Nixon resigned; and Joe Biden, for whom I use the latest trade day January 15th. Here is what I found: • Gerald Ford (Aug. ‘74 – Jan. ’77): DJIA went up 181.7 points (+23.4%) • Jimmy Carter (Jan. ’77 – Jan. ’81), down 8.4 points (-0.9%) • Ronald Reagon (Jan. ’81 – Jan. ’89), up 1,288.1 points (+135.5%). The data can be further broken down to +68.6% in his 1st term and +45.7% in the 2nd term • George H.W. Bush (Jan. ’89 – Jan. ’93), up 1,020.6 points (+45.7%) • Bill Clinton (Jan. ’93 – Jan. ’01), up 7,345.6 points (+226.6%), including +110.8% in the 1st four years and +54.7% in the 2nd four years • George W. Bush (Jan. ’01 – Jan. ’09), down 2,306.4 points (-21.8%), for which -0.4% and -20.9% for his 1st and 2nd terms, respectively • Barack Obama (Jan. ’09 – Jan. ’17), up 11,783.3 points (+148.2%), including +71.7% in the 1st term and +44.6% in the 2nd term • Donald Trump (Jan. ’17 – Jan. ’21), up 11,060.2 points (+55.8%) • Joe Biden (Jan. ’21 – Jan. ’21), up 12,202.8 points (+39.5%) Dow Jones advanced the most points under current administration (+12,203 points), with Obama coming in 2nd for 11,783 points. The DJIA index gained the most in percentage terms under the Clinton administration (+226%). Across all nine presidents, DJIA was lower for one, flat for another, but moved up 7 out of 9 times. If you look deeper into the worst-performing years under George W. Bush, you will find that 9/11 terrorist attack happened in his first term and the 2008 financial crisis occurred in his second term. Both can be considered extreme events and outliners in the dataset. Regardless which political party commands the White House, the Dow is more likely to move up than down. From the first day Gerald took office to the last week of the Biden administration, DJIA went from 777 to 43,133, a huge gain of 5,449%! Trading with Micro E-Mini Dow Jones Futures The above analysis gives us comfort in the upward mobility of the US stock market. Further analysis of the DJIA shows strength in its Top 5 component companies. • As of January 15th, DJIA went up 15.5% in the past 12 months • Gold Sachs, which holds an 8.2% share by index weight, was up 57.5% in a year • 1-year returns for the other top components are: United Health (+4.2%), Microsoft (+9.0%), Home Depot (+12.2%), and Caterpillar (+31.5%) An investor may simply deploy the time-honored “Buy and Hold” strategy. The longer the holding period, the better the returns, barring extreme circumstances. Given that the DJIA is trending up over the long run, active traders may consider using stock index futures to enhance their investment returns. Micro E-Mini Dow Jones futures (MYM) offer smaller-sized versions of CME Group’s benchmark Dow Jones futures (YM) contracts. Micro futures have a contract size of 0.5 times the DJIA index, which is 1/10th of the standard contract. CME data shows that the E-Mini and Micro Dow Jones futures have a combined open interest of 103,077 contract as of this Monday. According to the CFTC Commitment of Traders report, as of January 7, 2025, Leverage Funds hold 17,504 long positions and 11,695 short positions. With DJIA nearing its all-time high, “Small Money” is still bullish. Longs outweigh shorts by a 3:2 ratio. Buying or selling one MYM contract requires an initial margin of $1,077. With Wednesday midday quote of 43,376, each March contract (MYMH5) has a notional value of $21,688. Compared with investing in stocks, the futures contracts offer a built-in leverage of about 20 times (=21688/1077). Hypothetically, if Dow futures price moves up 10% to 47,714 in 2025, the index gain of 4,338 points will translate into $2,169 for a long position, given each index point equal to $0.50 for the Micro contract. Using the initial margin of $1,077 as a cost base, the trade would produce a theoretical return of 201.4% (=2169/1077). Futures contracts have expiration days, and you may not hold them forever like stocks. To stay Long in the DJIA, a trader may consider a futures rollover strategy. An illustration: • A trader would buy the lead contract March now, and hold it till the end of February • He would then sell March and buy June, which will become the next lead contract • He would repeat this process: buy September and sell June at the end of May • Repeat this again to buy December and sell September at the end of August This series of trades allows a trader to establish a long position in the DJIA throughout the year, while holding the most liquid contracts. There is no guarantee that each trade will yield positive returns. But if the Dow is trending up over time, the winning would likely outpace the loses. The leverage feature in futures works both ways. It would magnify the losses as well as improving the winnings. The good news is, a trader could put stop-loss on his futures trades, limiting the downside risks. For example, our trader may set stop-loss at 42,000 when he buys the MYM at 43,376. If the Dow falls to 40,000, his position will be liquidated well before that when the price hits 42,000. The maximum loss incurred will be $688 (= (43376 - 42000) * 0.5). The combination of Futures Rollover with Stop-loss could yield higher returns (thanks to the leverage) while maintaining a limited loss exposure. If the index bounces up and down but trends up in the long stretch, the trader will see both wins and losses. Since the wins are unbounded but the losses are contained, the overall returns would likely be positive. The risk to long Micro Dow is that the US stock market enters a bear market, and DJIA trends down over a long period of time. The trader could incur a series of limited losses, and the gains were not sufficient to cover those losses. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DJ:DJILong
by JimHuangChicago
8
Can DJT Trump Media & Technology Group Hit 171? Hey, trading family DJT from Trump Media & Technology Group is hovering around $42 right now. If we can rally it up to $62.50 and break out of that triangle, we're in for an epic run. We're talking potential jumps to $106, then $142, and if the stars align, we could see $171! With all the buzz around the inauguration, this could be DJT's moment to shine. If you're as excited about this potential breakout as I am, please give this post a boost, leave some love in the comments, or share it around! And if you want to chat more about this or need more trading insights, feel free to DM me or check out my profile for more. Let's watch this one together and see if we can hit those numbers! Kris/Mindbloome Exchange Trade What You See
NASDAQ:DJTLong
by Mindbloome-Trading
13
Copper - Markets are waiting for Trump's decisions!In the 4-hour timeframe, copper is above the EMA200 and EMA50 and is moving in its descending channel. Copper moved down from the supply zone of the previous analysis. The downward correction of copper will provide us with the opportunity to buy it with the appropriate risk reward. If the upward trend continues, you can sell copper in the next supply zone. According to experts, commodity prices are expected to decline in 2025 due to a weak global economic outlook and the resurgence of the US dollar. Analysts at Deutsche Bank have identified three key political developments in their latest report that could shape the strategy of US President-elect Donald Trump. These developments include changes in tariff policies, Trump’s preference for introducing a large, comprehensive bill, and his plan to fund tax cuts through tariffs. Deutsche Bank notes that the year will largely be influenced by the combination of policies Trump proposes. However, it seems unlikely that a comprehensive bill addressing both border and tax issues will be ready before April or May. Experts believe that Trump is likely to use Section 232 investigations to impose sector-specific tariffs. These investigations allow the government to implement tariffs on the grounds of national security. Deutsche Bank forecasts that Trump will employ multiple tariff approaches, including legislative and executive actions. Analysts suggest that Trump may attempt to enact broader tariffs through legislation, as this is the only way tariff revenues can be incorporated into the budget reconciliation process by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Two key bills in Congress related to the revocation of China’s normal trade status have been highlighted as important areas to monitor in this regard. This multi-faceted approach and the varying timelines for imposing tariffs introduce significant complexities and risks. However, from a financial perspective, Deutsche Bank predicts that Trump’s fiscal policies may have more moderate impacts, potentially easing some of the existing tensions. Markets are also watching for further moves by China to stimulate its economy in hopes that such measures might revive demand for commodities in the world’s second-largest economy. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has announced plans to cut interest rates and required bank reserves. However, the market is looking for more tangible actions to directly support consumers, rather than simply increasing public sector wages. In other words, the market seeks renewed confidence and vitality in the economy. Nonetheless, the lack of transparency in China’s economy remains a pressing issue. Even within China and among government officials, there appears to be no clear understanding of the economic situation. Public sentiment remains highly negative and has not recovered since the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite these challenges, China continues to excel in certain sectors. For instance, the country has achieved notable success in the automotive and artificial intelligence industries. Additionally, China is still considered the easiest place in the world to manufacture anything. However, these advantages ultimately need to translate into improved domestic consumption to create lasting positive effects. In a note, BMI stated that potential slowdowns in the energy transition due to Trump’s policy changes could dampen the green energy sentiment that bolstered prices in 2024. John Gross, president of John Gross Consulting, told CNBC that while copper prices peaked in May 2024 due to market pressures, they have since been in a downward trend, which is expected to continue. He added, “A complex combination of high inflation, elevated interest rates, and a strong dollar will negatively impact metal markets.”
CAPITALCOM:COPPERLong
by Ali_PSND
USDCAD: political crisis and tariff crisis in Canada!The USDCAD currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. The correction of this currency pair towards the demand zones will provide us with the next buying position. The political crisis surrounding Justin Trudeau is deepening, with an increasing number of Liberal Party members publicly calling for the Canadian Prime Minister to step down and allow a new leader to take charge before the 2025 elections. Chad Collins, a Member of Parliament from Ontario, stated that nearly 50 elected Liberals are part of a growing group advocating for Trudeau’s resignation. Other Liberal opponents have reported similar numbers, representing approximately one-third of the 153 Liberal MPs in the House of Commons. The resignation of Chrystia Freeland, Trudeau’s influential Finance Minister and longtime deputy, has been a significant blow to the Prime Minister. Collins remarked that this resignation has caused irreparable harm to Trudeau. Freeland explained that she decided to resign after being informed of a reassignment within the cabinet. She mentioned that Trudeau informed her of the decision only three days before an important speech intended to update the nation on its financial and economic status. Criticizing Trudeau’s leadership, Collins said, “I don’t know who is advising him, but I can guess. This advice is far from effective. Ultimately, he is responsible for his decisions, and we are now witnessing consequences that many consider to be a clear demonstration of poor judgment.” Trudeau, now 52, has been under mounting pressure to resign for months. In June, the Liberals lost a by-election in a Toronto district they had held for decades. Similarly, they lost another seat in Montreal in September. However, Freeland’s resignation, amid economic threats posed by Trump’s incoming administration, has turned discontent into a full-blown crisis for Trudeau. The Prime Minister has canceled all of his usual year-end television interviews. Collins warned that more Liberals would exit politics if Trudeau insists on staying in power. Meanwhile, Ian de Verteuil, an equity strategist at CIBC Capital Markets, discussed Donald Trump’s tariff threats against Canada in an interview with Bloomberg. He argued that Trump’s threat to impose sweeping tariffs on Canadian imports on his first day in office could hurt American consumers and is unlikely to proceed without major revisions. De Verteuil emphasized that Trump should be taken seriously, though not always literally. He added that Trump’s slogan, “Make America Great Again,” would be put to the test if a 25% tariff were imposed on Mexican and Canadian goods. Such tariffs could harm American consumers and are unlikely to be implemented. He further noted that tariffs are unlikely to target fossil fuels or auto parts from Canada, given the U.S. economy’s heavy reliance on these imports. However, companies exporting consumer goods such as clothing and vehicles to the U.S. are at greater risk. De Verteuil also highlighted that Mexican companies exporting goods to the U.S. would face more significant impacts, as Trump’s border concerns primarily focus on America’s southern neighbor. In conclusion, he stated that Canada remains a vital trade partner for the U.S., and major challenges for Canada in 2025 are highly improbable.
Long
by Ali_PSND
A Secular Bull Market Will Face Strong HeadwindsCME: Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Futures ( CME_MINI:MES1! ) The Year of the Dragon is quickly approaching the end. If you invested in U.S. stocks, the chances are you have a pretty good year so far. Let’s review how major U.S. stock market indices performed (data as of December 30th): • The blue-chip Dow Jones 30 trading at 42,992 Midday today, up 12.8% in 2024. This is a back-to-back gain after a 13.7% annual return in 2023. This year, the Dow performed better than its 5-year average of 8.5%. • The broad market index S&P 500 quoted at 5,899, up 23.7% this year, ahead of its 5-year average of 14.5% but below the 2023 gain of 24.2%. • The Tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite closed at 19,453, up 29.6% year-to-date, which is below its 2023 gain of 43.4%, but above its 5-year average of 17.1%. • The small-cap Russell settled at 2,212, up 9.1% YTD, below last year’s 15.1%, but above the 5-year CAGR of 6.1%. U.S. stocks grew less spectacularly comparing to 2023, however, they still outperformed its global peers, from developed countries to emerging markets alike: • The Nikkei 225 (Japan) gained 21.1% in 2024. However, this remarkable performance is dented when considering the 11% Yen depreciation against the dollar this year. • The SSE (China) gained 14.8%, above its 5-year aggregate of 13.2%. Depending on when you entered the Chinese stock market, your return could vary significantly. • The FTSE 100 and the Stoxx 50 indices were up 5.4% and 8.6% YTD, respectively. The stock performance in Europe lags the U.S. in 1-year, 3-year and 5-year terms. • The Nifty (India) gained 9.9% this year and 68.3% total in five years. This showcases India as a growing world economy in the 21st century. • The Ibovespa (Brazil) lost 9.4% in 2024 and gained only 3.2% over five years. The 2025 Outlook The new Trump administration will assume power on January 20th, and the Year of the Serpent will start on January 29th (the Lunar New Year). Judging from campaign promises and new Cabinet nominations, investors expect dramatic policy changes in the coming months and years. Heightened uncertainties will result in higher stock volatility, which increases the overall risk of investing. With a lot still up in the air, even the Federal Reserve does not factor in policy changes in their economic forecast. Today, I will attempt a discussion on the stock market valuation through the lens of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF). In January, during The Leap — Paper Trading Competition by TradingView, I will publish a deep-dive analysis on the “Magnificent Seven” stocks, on how they will fare under the new administration policies, and how they will impact the S&P 500 index together. To refresh our financial knowledge, the DCF model says that an asset’s value is the present value of its expected future cash flows. In the numerator, Cash Flow is a function of revenue minus cost. In the denominator, the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is applied to discount the cash flows. Potential policy impacts on business growth (corporate revenue and profitability): • Tailwind: The “America First” policy is bullish on U.S. businesses. It will help bring manufacturing back onshore, create new jobs and support consumer spending. • Tailwind: Lowering corporate income tax from 21% to 15% will improve profitability. • Headwind: Higher tariffs will raise retail prices as well as input costs for manufacturing. Higher prices will reduce sales volume for most businesses. • Headwind: Slashing federal spending will reduce sales revenue from industries relying on government spending, including healthcare, retirement and defense spending. Potential policy impacts on borrowing costs: • Headwind: The recent rebound in inflation has caused the Fed to hold back on future rate cuts. Fewer cuts mean higher expected future interest rates. This is the main reason behind the 700-point plunge in the Nasdaq following the December FOMC. • Headwind: Higher tariffs will fuel inflation. Learning from the past, the magnitude of tariffs could be large, making it impossible to find alternative products without higher costs. This will further reduce the Fed’s appetite to lower interest rates. Taking as a whole, it is my opinion that U.S. stocks will face more headwinds than tailwinds in 2025. The structural changes in how to run the government more efficiently will be positive over the long run, but they will cause pain if you are caught in the middle. Overall, I would adopt a more defensive strategy when trading U.S. stocks. Trade Setup with Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Futures With heightened uncertainties, I would prefer shorter-term trading strategies based on incoming information and avoid making longer-term directional bets. We could explore setting up a trade one week ahead of a “Big Report Date”, including the monthly CPI and nonfarm payroll reports and the FOMC meetings eight times a year. With higher volatility, investors tend to overreact to these big data. This makes short-term outsized gains more likely when you are proven correct in your view, by tapping into the leveraged investment instruments like futures. Micro E-mini S&P 500 futures (MES) offer smaller-sized versions of CME Group’s liquid benchmark E-mini S&P 500 futures contracts. They are designed to manage exposure to the 500 U.S. large-cap stocks tracked by the S&P 500 Index, widely regarded as the best single gauge of the U.S. stock market. The Micro E-mini S&P 500 futures contract is $5 x the S&P 500 Index and has a minimum tick of 0.25 index points. With Monday quote of 5,954, each March contract (MESH5) has a notional value of $29,770. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $1,522. Hypothetically, if a trader wants to trade the January 3rd, 2025 Nonfarm Payroll report, he could long or short the MES contract on Monday, December 30th, 2024. Generally speaking, solid job growth tends to point to the economy overheating. This would raise the Fed’s motivation to keep interest rates high. On the contrary, higher unemployment may prompt the Fed to lower interest rates to help out. Theoretically, if a trader wants to trade the January 15th, 2025 CPI report, he could long or short the MES contract on or around January 8th, 2025. Typically, lower inflation supports the Fed to bring rates down to a long-term normal level, while persistent high inflation would force the Fed to keep rates higher for longer. Referring back to the DCF model, higher interest rates would reduce the present value of asset price, while lower rates would raise the price. A follow-up on the MES is scheduled to publish on January 20th, 2025, at the start of the LEAP contest. With the “Magnificent Seven” accounting for 30% of S&P 500 valuation, I would apply a collective trend of these stocks to construct a trading strategy. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:MES1!
by JimHuangChicago
2
DJT: Will It Break $33.85 or $38.55 First? DJT is at a tipping point, and it could go either way. Here’s what to watch so you’re ready for the next big move. 1) If DJT Drops Below $33.85 If this level breaks, things could get rough. Here’s what might happen: -$28–$26: This is the first stop where the price might chill for a bit. -$10: If the selling gets heavy, this is where we could end up. 2) If DJT Pops Above $38.55 If the bulls take charge, it could be time to ride the wave higher: A break above $38.55 could spark a nice rally and push the price upward. What’s the Plan? -Keep an eye on $33.85 and $38.55—they’re the magic numbers. -Be patient and wait for a clear move before jumping in. If this makes sense, toss me a like or follow. Got questions about DJT or another stock you’re stuck on? Hit me up in the DMs—I’m here to help. And hey, if you’re feeling burned out or stressed about trading, let’s talk. I’m all about helping you find your balance and keeping things sustainable. Chill, stay focused, and let’s catch the next wave together! Kris/ Mindbloome Exchange Trade What You See
NASDAQ:DJT
by Mindbloome-Trading
2
WTI - the fate of oil next year!WTI oil is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. In case of a downward correction towards the zone, the next purchase of oil will be offered with a reward suitable for us. Analysts believe that the global oil market will be well-supplied in the coming year due to increased oil production from non-OPEC+ countries and limited growth in global oil demand. Despite uncertainties surrounding 2025, experts maintain a cautious outlook on crude oil prices. By the end of 2024, investment banks projected that oil prices in 2025 would remain around $70 per barrel of Brent. However, the potential escalation of trade tensions poses a downside risk to prices. Market observers are aware that oil price forecasts are often inaccurate. Yet, considering current fundamentals and geopolitical developments, experts generally hold a more negative than positive view on oil prices for the next year. Most analysts and investment banks anticipate a supply surplus in the oil market for 2025, even if OPEC+ adheres to its current plan to reduce production starting in April 2025. In December, OPEC+ announced a delay in its planned 2.2 million barrels per day production cut from January to April 2025. Additionally, the group extended the timeline for fully reversing these cuts to September 2026. According to investment banks, while OPEC+’s decision may reduce the anticipated surplus, the market will still experience oversupply. ING commodity strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey noted in a recent report: “For now, we forecast the oil market to face a surplus next year, although much will depend on OPEC+’s production policies.” The International Energy Agency (IEA) has long predicted a significant supply surplus in 2025. In its monthly report, the IEA stated that even if OPEC+ maintains its current production levels throughout 2025, there would still be a daily surplus of 950,000 barrels. If OPEC+ halts voluntary production cuts at the end of March 2025, this surplus could rise to 1.4 million barrels per day. The IEA also forecasts that global oil demand will increase by 1.1 million barrels per day next year. However, this growth will not be sufficient to absorb the additional supply from non-OPEC+ producers, primarily the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana. Additionally, weak consumption data from China indicates that demand this year has been below initial projections. OPEC has also reduced its oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 for five consecutive months. In its December Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that if OPEC+ implements its recent production cut decisions, global oil inventories would rise by an average of 100,000 barrels per day starting in the second quarter of next year. The EIA further predicted that this inventory increase would exert downward pressure on crude oil prices by late 2025, with Brent prices declining from an average of $74 per barrel in Q1 2025 to $72 per barrel in Q4 2025. The agency estimates that the average annual Brent oil price in 2025 will be $74 per barrel, down from this year’s average of $80 per barrel. Recent surveys also reflect this trend, as analysts have lowered their oil price forecasts due to weak demand and robust supply growth. Some experts argue that stricter U.S. sanctions on Iran and heightened geopolitical tensions might support prices early next year. However, overall weak demand forecasts are expected to exert significant downward pressure on oil prices. China’s accommodative monetary policy could boost its economy and oil demand, but President-elect Trump’s promise to increase tariffs on China poses risks to economic growth, trade, and oil demand. Saxo Bank recently stated that China’s latest economic stimulus measures and the likelihood of further monetary easing could offset the impact of U.S. tariffs in 2025, signaling Beijing’s determination to prevent a severe economic downturn.
TVC:USOILLong
by Ali_PSND
Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT): Big Moves Ahead?Good morning, trading family! Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) is at a critical juncture, and here’s what we’re watching: If the price falls below $33.87: It could drop to $30-$28, with a chance of bouncing back to $59.57 afterward. If the price breaks above $38.51: We could see momentum push it to $59 or higher. If it fails to hold $28: Deeper declines may follow. These levels are key, and how the price reacts will set the direction. Let’s stay sharp and trade smart! Comment, like, follow, or send me a DM if you want more insights on this setup! Kris/Mindbloome Exchange Trade What You See
NASDAQ:DJT
by Mindbloome-Trading
1
EURGBP - The weakness of the euro will end!?The EURGBP currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its descending channel. In case of breaking the resistance area, we can see the supply zone and resell in that zone with appropriate risk reward. A valid break of the drawn support area will provide us with the downward path of this currency pair to the level of 0.82400. Following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election, the euro experienced a sharp decline. This drop was attributed to market reactions to the possibility of aggressive policies in areas such as trade, immigration, and finance.Past experiences have shown that such policies can significantly impact exchange rates. It is anticipated that the U.S. tariff measures expected in early 2025 will play a crucial role in shaping the direction of exchange rates. The euro, particularly due to Europe’s significant trade surplus with the U.S., is highly vulnerable to these measures. According to statistics, the U.S. trade deficit with the eurozone increased from $158 billion in 2019 to $196 billion by September 2024. This development could serve as motivation for U.S. policymakers to apply further pressure. Another factor that might weaken the euro is the poor performance of eurozone countries in meeting NATO’s defense spending targets. Out of the eight countries that remain below the 2% defense spending threshold, seven are in the eurozone. This could provide Trump’s administration with justification for adopting stricter trade measures. JP Morgan has forecasted that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates by 50 basis points during its December 12 meeting. While the market assigns only a 20% probability to this reduction, JP Morgan believes that such a cut would not suffice to bolster the economy. Data indicates that the preliminary estimate for overall consumer inflation dropped from 2.8% to 2.7%, while core inflation rose from 2% to 2.3%. Villeroy, a member of the ECB, dismissed these changes as insignificant. In his speech, he stated: “We have good news; inflation is decreasing and moving toward our target. Therefore, it is likely that we can continue reducing interest rates.” He added, “We are confident in our projections and expect to achieve our inflation target, possibly in the first half of next year.” Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, in an article for The Economist, discussed how Europe’s savings can be transformed into investments, innovation, and growth. She highlighted that Europe faces numerous economic challenges and that directing savings toward productive investments is essential to stimulate growth. Lagarde emphasized the need for a strong capital markets union in Europe to better allocate financial resources and improve access to capital for innovative companies. She also stressed the importance of structural reforms to enhance the business environment and encourage entrepreneurship. She pointed to the role of coordinated fiscal and monetary policies in supporting sustainable and innovative investments and underscored the importance of cooperation among EU member states in achieving these objectives. Additionally, she called for the establishment of a stable and predictable legal and regulatory framework to boost investor confidence and drive economic growth. A recent Cluster17 survey revealed that around 54% of French citizens want President Emmanuel Macron to resign and for early presidential elections to be held in 2025. The survey also showed strong public polarization regarding the collapse of the Barnier government, highlighting the inability of political parties to unite voters. Political analyst Stéphane Fournier noted that these results increase pressure on Macron to appoint a new prime minister. The findings also reflect public dissatisfaction with the current political situation and the failure of parties to provide effective solutions to the ongoing crisis. According to a recent Reuters survey of economists, 73 out of 75 economists predict that the ECB will cut the deposit rate by 0.25% during its December meeting. Two others anticipate a 0.5% cut. Moreover, 51 out of 67 economists expect the ECB to reduce the deposit rate to 2% or lower by the end of 2025. Notably, in a November survey, 43 out of 63 economists made the same prediction.
Short
by Ali_PSND
Copper - Markets await employment data!In the 4H timeframe, copper is located between EMA200 and EMA50 and is moving in its descending channel. Copper moved down from the supply zone of the previous analysis. If the upward trend continues, it is possible to sell copper in the next supply zone. The downward correction of copper will provide us with the opportunity to buy it with the appropriate risk reward The governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has stated that the central bank will maintain its accommodative monetary policy in 2025. The bank also aims to promote sustainable development in the real estate and capital markets through effective utilization of structural monetary policy tools. Meanwhile, the United States has imposed new export restrictions designed to curtail China’s ability to advance its high-tech semiconductor industry and slow the development of military applications for artificial intelligence (AI). In response, the China Internet Association has expressed that these restrictions will significantly harm the healthy and sustainable growth of China’s internet industry. The association has also urged domestic companies to exercise caution when purchasing American chips and to seek expanded cooperation with chip manufacturers from other countries. In a retaliatory move, China’s Ministry of Commerce has announced a ban on exporting key rare earth metals to the U.S. and is considering stricter reviews for graphite exports. These raw materials are critical for industries such as semiconductors, military systems, electric vehicle batteries, and solar technologies. The ongoing trade tensions between the two nations could have far-reaching consequences for both sides. In the U.S., it is anticipated that November’s employment figures will reflect recovery after being weighed down by recent storms and a major strike.This aligns with a labor market that remains healthy but is gradually normalizing. According to a Bloomberg survey, nonfarm payrolls (NFP) likely increased by 200,000 in November, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. As the Boeing strike ends and recovery efforts from recent storms begin, November’s job report is expected to be less affected by unusual factors. However, a consistent decline in job openings, moderate employment growth, and layoff plans from companies like Boeing and General Motors indicate a softer labor market overall. These developments, along with Friday’s employment data, could significantly influence future Federal Reserve policy decisions and market expectations for interest rate cuts. The Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. construction industry is facing new challenges. The Trump administration’s immigration and trade policies have left homebuilders in a vulnerable position. New tariffs and restrictions on immigrant labor are two key pressures confronting the industry. For instance, McKinney, Texas, which two decades ago was accessible only via a two-lane highway, has now grown to a city of over 200,000 residents, becoming one of the fastest-growing areas in the country. This city’s development has relied heavily on immigrant labor and industries dependent on imported steel and commodities. However, recent policies are imposing new challenges, leaving homebuilders grappling with even greater difficulties.
CAPITALCOM:COPPERLong
by Ali_PSND
9
Bitcoin - Will Bitcoin continue to rise?!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H time frame and is trading in its descending channel. Risk ON sentiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETF funds will lead to its continued upward movement. which will cause the downtrend channel to fail. Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk OFF sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to decline. This path will continue until the bottom of the channel and the specified support range. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. According to a report by Fox Business, informed sources have indicated that the new U.S administration might grant the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) authority to oversee certain digital assets. The CFTC’s expanded role could include regulating cryptocurrency exchanges and cash markets tied to digital assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), which are categorized as commodities. These changes could diminish the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) influence in this sector. Gary Gensler, the current SEC chairman and a staunch crypto critic, has supported granting CFTC more authority over Bitcoin, deeming it a commercial commodity. In March, the CFTC filed a lawsuit against the crypto exchange KuCoin, also classifying Ethereum as a commodity. As of November 2024, MicroStrategy owns over 380,000 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $31.6 billion, accounting for nearly 2% of the total global supply. This Virginia-based software intelligence company first began purchasing Bitcoin in 2020 and has since expanded its holdings to 15 times those of its closest corporate competitor, Marathon Digital. Tesla, which invested $1.5 billion in Bitcoin in February 2024, ranks fourth among public companies in Bitcoin ownership. Around the same time, Tesla also started accepting Bitcoin as payment for its vehicles. El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele has proposed leasing the country’s 170 volcanoes to Bitcoin miners, granting them access to the geothermal energy. Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital, has forecasted that Bitcoin’s price could reach $740,000 by April 2028 based on historical trends. Morehead tied this projection to the election of Donald Trump as a pro-crypto U.S. president and a Congress supportive of digital assets. He also highlighted that only 5% of the global financial wealth is invested in blockchain-related assets, suggesting significant growth potential for Bitcoin. In his letter, he wrote, “Even after 11 years, Bitcoin is still like a seed sprouting in the soil.” He added that the regulatory challenges faced by blockchain over the past 15 years have now transformed into golden opportunities. This optimistic outlook aligns with Pantera Capital’s Bitcoin fund, which has delivered strong performance. Launched in 2013, the fund has achieved a 131,000% return over 11 years, excluding fees, primarily due to Bitcoin’s 1,000-fold price increase since the fund purchased it at $74 per BTC. Morehead emphasized that “it’s not too late to buy Bitcoin.” He added, “Some investors may think that Bitcoin’s doubling this year means they missed the opportunity, but this is a flawed mindset.” Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) sparked a debate about meme coins in the crypto space. In a tweet, he criticized meme coins, stating, “I’m not against memes, but meme coins have gotten a bit bizarre. Let’s build real applications using blockchain.” Meanwhile, Hong Kong has proposed tax exemptions for cryptocurrency activities, aiming to compete with Singapore as a leading financial hub and attract major investors and asset managers. According to the Financial Times, the exemptions cover profits from digital assets, private credits, overseas properties, and carbon credits. Patrick Yip from Deloitte China noted that this initiative could bolster Hong Kong’s financial industry as family offices in the city allocate up to 20% of their portfolios to digital assets. During the trading week of November 25–29, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $138 million in capital outflows after seven consecutive weeks of inflows. Performance of the top-traded ETFs on Friday: • Total: $320 million • BlackRock: $137 million • Fidelity:
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
NZDUSD - The uptrend of the dollar is over?!The NZDUSD currency pair is located between the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe. In case of a downward correction, we can see the demand zones and buy within that zones with the appropriate risk reward. Although Trump has announced plans to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and several other countries, closer analysis suggests that these measures are more related to addressing issues like migration and drug trafficking than economic policies. Therefore, these actions are not considered a serious threat to international trade and may be interpreted differently by the markets. The appointment of Scott Bassant, a seasoned expert in currency markets and hedge funds, as the head of the economic team under President-elect Trump, has brought greater confidence to the markets. Bassant, who leans towards boosting the stock market, is likely to pursue more moderate policies, including reducing reliance on tariffs. One of Bassant’s proposed approaches involves using a weaker dollar instead of trade wars and tariffs to achieve economic goals such as increasing domestic production, improving trade balance, and strengthening the stock market. If international agreements, particularly with China, are reached, this strategy could put additional pressure on the dollar. Conway, Chief Economist of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, has stated that Trump’s policies are currently viewed as a medium-term risk to inflation and economic volatility. Moreover, forecasts have not yet accounted for potential U.S. tariffs. Conway has also predicted that house prices in New Zealand will rise by 6.8% next year. While he does not expect a significant boom in housing prices, he anticipates a modest revival in the real estate market. Meanwhile, Silk of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has announced that for February, a rate cut of 25 or 50 basis points is under consideration. During this week’s meeting, all options were reviewed, but the committee quickly reached consensus on a 50-basis-point cut. He clarified that a reduction beyond this level was deemed unnecessary as there remains a need to focus on controlling domestic inflation.
Long
by Ali_PSND
USD/MXN Soars Above 20.81266 Amid Tariff TensionsThe USD/MXN pair has surged above 20.81266, marking its weakest level since March 2022. This sharp movement is driven by Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico, which poses significant risks to Mexico's economy, particularly affecting the crucial auto sector. With the US accounting for over 83% of Mexico's exports, these tariffs could disrupt the trade balance and amplify peso volatility, leading to increased investor uncertainty and potential capital outflow. The Mexican peso has depreciated approximately 20% this year, compounded by concerns over fiscal expansion and a robust US dollar. Retaliatory tariff measures suggested by President Claudia Sheinbaum could further complicate the trade landscape, exacerbating tensions. Traders should closely monitor developments in US-Mexico trade policies and potential domestic policy responses in Mexico. Given the prevailing uncertainty, market participants may seek safer assets, which could further impact USD/MXN movements
by tastyfx
USD/CAD price action: Trump's tariffs and the loonieUSD/CAD is approaching 1.4180, its lowest since mid-2020, influenced by Trump's recent 25% tariff hike impacting Canadian exports like oil, gas, and vehicles. While these tariffs pose challenges, Canada's economy shows resilience with higher-than-expected inflation and strong employment data, reducing the likelihood of significant rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. Concurrently, the US dollar strengthens, supported by anticipated policy changes and tariff impacts.
by tastyfx