TRON Could Have a Terra Luna CollapseTron's stablecoin USDD has lost its peg and despite the $5bil of reserve cash used to prop it back up, it continues to fall further and further from $1. Tron mimicked the Terra Luna UST model and implemented their own stablecoin just days before the UST Luna collapse. If Tron is unable to re-establish the 1:1 peg, it's fate might be the same as Luna's. This is my favorite short.
TRX
Tron | Will It Stop Or Keep Going?It will keep on going but, let's read...
Tron is ultra bullish vs Bitcoin (TRXBTC)...
This is a preview of what the Altcoins market has in store for us.
First, TRXBTC has been growing since 2019 with higher highs and higher low.
I mentioned many times back in 2019 and 2020 that the Altcoins market (ALTSBTC) was set to grow long-term, for many years...
This has now come true but things are only getting started.
Today TRXBTC breaks the May 2021 resistance/peak price, also great news.
This confirms we are in new highs territory and the entire market is intertwined; Remember, what one does, the rest follows.
Many coins will not move but we pick the ones that do of course, we can spot it in the charts based on tons of experience.
Bullish indicators, etc.
After May's 2021 peak price we have August 2020, that's the next target at around 465 satoshis or 0.00000465.
If this level is taken out, which is pretty likely, then we will see the 2019 peak price at 860 satoshis challenged.
I hope it grows even more.
Thanks a lot for your continued support.
Namaste.
Best Case Scenario: TRX is going to $250In the realistic possibility that a vast majority of TRX is burnt in the next year, we could see a hyper deflationary spiral causing TRX to increase 35x-100x in market cap, and 3000x in price.
Based on the average burn rate of 284 million TRX per day since USDD launched, it's possible that 99% of the circulating supply of TRX is removed from circulation over the next year or so. This means there could be only 1 billion TRX in circulation in the near future, and a price of $250 per TRX is realistic in that scenario because it would be a market cap of only $250 billion, still significantly smaller than what Bitcoin is today and roughly equal to Ethereum's current market cap. It should also be noted that BTC and ETH are expected to increase over this period of time as well to several trillion market cap each.
There are 32 billion TRX staked and the TRON DAO holds about 28 billion TRX , that leaves less than 45 billion TRX currently "circulating," though at the right price many people will begin unstaking and selling. These sales will likely end up getting burnt by USDD redemptions or network fees, ultimately moving the supply that is available for sale closer to 0.
Even if the available supply remains around 10 billion TRX (minus TRON DAO coins which will likely be burnt or remain off the market during this time) a $250 price and $2.5 trillion market cap is still possible and would be much smaller than BTC would be at that point, assuming Bitcoin likely goes to at least $200k-$1m
If the giga bull scenario doesn't happen a move to $10 is still very likely as the supply should remain hyper deflationary to keep up with the demand for USDD for the foreseeable future. A move to $10 at 10 billion supply would be only $100 billion market cap which is less than half of what ETH is today, and again ETH could also be expected to rise to $10-20k over the same period making it's market cap well into the trillions.
Eventually demand for USDD will begin to reverse when collateralization becomes riskier and interest rates are cut, leading to people redeeming USDD for TRX , and likely causing a massive correction in TRX . possibly larger than the -97% correction we saw after the 2018 peak, and in a worst case scenario TRX could end up in a death spiral like LUNA if the USDD peg is broken and redemptions are not paused soon enough.
I think that the TRON DAO Reserve will learn from LUNA's mistakes, and that USDD will ultimately have much better collateralization, and in the risk of a death spiral redemptions for TRX will be paused before the supply of TRX becomes too large like what happened with LUNA. The death spiral may actually be avoided by simply cutting the APR when collateralization becomes too low, which LUNA and UST never did and that led to UST being undercollateralized. By cutting the APR they also cut the demand which can lead to a more orderly exit from USDD, rather than everyone rushing for the exit at the same time like with UST .
As people exit USDD in a more orderly fashion the collateralization levels become greater and the risk of a death spiral decreases to near 0. The catch is if USDD is collateralized by risky assets like BTC or TRX , then there is systemic risk if those assets suddenly crash and now the reserve dollar value has rapidly declined to less than the total issuance of USDD. For now there are enough stablecoins to back USDD at greater than 1:1 ratio so there is virtually no risk of a death spiral, but even an orderly exit from USDD will cause downward pressure on TRX prices.
Even without a death spiral a massive correction is likely after a move to triple digits, especially when the TRON DAO Reserve is forced to eventually cut USDD rates, which will put downward pressure on TRX as capital begins to leave USDD and the supply of TRX may actually begin to increase. The key is for the TDR to avoid a hyperinflationary spiral by taking on too much debt, much like when a central bank takes on too much debt and their currency begins to hyperinflate to pay for this debt.
While the exact price may not be clear at this point, what is clear is that TRX's supply has entered into a hyper deflationary spiral and if it keeps up at the rate it is going a vast majority of TRX will be burnt in a year, and the price of TRX is going to have to go much higher to meet the demand for USDD issuance and 30% APR that is offered by USDD staking.
Even if the market cap remains the same the price could still increase by 10-100x over the next year or two because the supply of TRX is rapidly declining and that trend is likely to continue as long as USDD APR remains high and the TRON DAO Reserve remains overcollateralized.
I would watch for resistance around psychological levels because that is likely where the most sell liquidity will be found to meet the demand of USDD redemptions, around $1 (61.8 extension), $10 (1.0 extension), $100, and finally $250 (161.8 extension of wave-E )
Tron Hits New All-Time Low, Over 170% Growth Now Possible!Just yesterday Tron (TRXUSDT) hit a new All-Time Low.
This low hit basically at the same level as back in June 2021.
June 2021's low was set at 0.04651 and was followed by a 160% bullish wave.
June 2022's low was set at 0.04604 and we are likely to see a strong bullish wave follow.
Remember our famous saying...
Once we reach bottom, the only place left to go is up.
Tron just hit rock bottom...
It is time to WAKE UP & GROW!
Namaste.
Tron TRX - Bad NewsHey Guys and Gurls!
Hope you're having a great day!
It's sunny in Incheon, but there are some dark clouds in the Tron-verse...
Justin Sun is reportedly withdrawing millions or billions of TRX...:
JUST IN: Tron withdraws 948 million #TRX ($48M) from Binance "to safeguard the blockchain industry and crypto market."
-From WatcherGuru tweet
Also this article:
watcher.guru
TRX is pretty surely going downward, so we can trade the pullbacks on the way down, and take profits on the "breakdowns".. However you feel confident to trade.
I try to make sure I only go short when stochastic RSI is overbought, on higher and shorter timeframes. (higher most important, but timeframe depends on your leverage... Higher leverage requires higher "sniper"-accuracy in the entry price.
Okay, enough for now, Good luck, and God bless! :)
-Thomchris777
TRX range ideaA quick idea on Trx currently sitting at mid range and in a good position for a continuation long having retraced already below mid range
After a blow out top, Trx integrated a range by bouncing off a previous resistance flipped support
In a range, we are expecting range low, mid range, range high, mid range, range low, etc... kind of sequence. No need to think this one too much
+ Trx is one of the strongest looking coin across the board
Cheers
SELL TRX SUPPORTTRX has the largest open interest in exchages meaning a lot of positions are being opened! Justin sun is afraid of losing the USDD stability like the UST nightmare. In these current market conditions I won't long the support as fundamentals are agains me.
Starting from New york open, markets will be very volatile because of fear from fed interest rate decision with the leaked data indicating a 75bps hike!
🚀SHIB: is such global scenario possible for this doge?SHIB fall for 92% from it`s highs. Beginners lost almost all their money but got the experience to not trade without trading strategy. In this idea i`ll explain my point of view on SHIB.
📊Recently, i made an idea about SHIB where marked resistance areas for the price. After the local growth price almost test it and after the false breakout of the trendline fell by -31-35%. Check the idea to read the preconditions and get more experience in trading!
💹Why i marked thess 2 value areas:
1️⃣ 0,2057-2970 is the big accumulation area of retail traders. They become the FUEL for such massive dump. Everyone who use even the x1 leverage are liquidated already.
2️⃣ 0,680-860 is the biggest value area where the whales accumulate SHIB before. Now it become the HUGE support area for the price.
Addtionally, if u want to get more info about alts read this idea about the BTC.D and altseason. As you know they have huge correlation.
At the volume indicator you can see some interesting thing. Despite the price dump the volumes are not growing. We can mention it at all cryptocurrencies. And it`s a strange things because we have to see the large volumes when the price falling.
What this can mean:
1️⃣ a lot of traders are already sell their SHIB
2️⃣ the price haven`t reach the bottom yet
🏁So don`t miss the volume growth and upcoming ideas!
💻Friends, press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
📊Are TRX and USDD next SCAM coins? $3B to save the peg!Should you have to short the TRON with x20 leverage? In this idea i explain you all pros and cons for traders in the current situation.
📊USDD is the alghoritmical stablecoin that start to lost it`s peg with USD. This is very similar to the case of UST that lost it`s peg a month ago. Of course you remember the Luna and Luna 2.0 that lost almost all capitalization because of UST peg.
🔶Will it happen to TRX? Now CEO of the Tron (TRX) announce additional money flow to protect the USDD(Tron stablecoin) to dave it`s peg to USD (1:1). There is about $3 billion in reserves right now to save Stablecoin and Tron project but peg is continuing to fall.
🔶Should i sell or buy TRX? Friends, check this idea that was published at May 9. When TRX pumped i tell that is not the best time to buy it. After the second liquidity collection of the value area it fell for -46%(!).
At the current situation the value area of $0.3-0.33 could become the huge support for the price and revesal point.
The value area of $0,59-0,66 is the resistance for the price. And if the TRX return to this area it will be hard to break it.
As you can see at the volume indicator the bars are not even renew it`s higs or previous highs.
🔶 No one knows what happend to price but technical analysis in combination with volume indicator could help you to open a trade and understand the nest price movements.
✅Now after -46% DUMP i don`t reccomend you to gamble. Better to save the money to the possible bullish trend in 1-2 year or use small part of your depo to stufy trading this situations. Actually, i don`t recommend you to trade such dumps without using trading strategy as it was with lunatics at Luna 1.0 dump. They almost destroyed.
Additionally, today is the a day of uncertainty. The FED meeting can dump the stock and crypto markets after rate hikes to 0,75%!
🏁Traders, write your thoughts about current situation with Tron. Will the USDD lost it`s peg and we need to open a short or it skyrocket to the moon in 2-3 months?
💻Friends, press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
TRXUSDT 1D🔥TRON will continue to fall?
Against the background of BTC, the asset will continue to fall and will rest against a stronger support of about $ 0.05. Then I think there will be a reversal towards the trend.
Coins like TRON can be considered for the medium term, I think the market should resurrect in about 2-3 months.
It is possible to consider futures within a day with a small percentage.
✅Do not forget to visit the channel there is a lot of useful information about trading.
✅Write your comments what you think about this coin.
The lovely trxLast month, Trx was able to record a very strong monthly candlestick, which was a sign of buyers at this price. It was also able to break an important dynamic resistance that was affected by ath and pullback to it. Conditions are very good and When we are relieved that a very serious resistance will be broken at the price of 0.0944. There are two possible scenarios that I have identified in the chart
Tron is dying? New Luna?😱😱😱Tron dropped 18% and looks like it only accelerates.
It may be connected to problems with it's stablecoin - USDD. At the picture you can see that reserves cover only 90% of supply.
How death spiral may look like?
As people start to sell USDD, USDD will have to sell TRX to keep itself stable, TRX drops in price, reserves become even smaller and so on.
I advise you to be careful with TRX for now and keep your savings in other stablecoins if possible. A lot of people believed LUNA wouldn't fail because it's such a big project but it still happened.
TRX Going to Down??Yesterday the news of TRX gained so much attention about the USDD that it shoot for more than 17%. Right now it is in the cooling phase , but Tron is know for doing something opposite in the market so I have a neutral view, but if the price breaks in either direction I will open a trade.
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