USDTRY Possible Ending Diagonal?Hi,
First of all, I am not an elliott expert. So, you should not open any positions with this analysis.
If my analysis true, I am seeing an ending diagonal at 5.th wave.
Ending diagonals can be seen at 5th. wave of bigger degree motive wave, or C wave of bigger degree of correction wave.
So as you can see in the chart, I am expecting a rise before a big fall. I can't give you any take profit or stop loss point. Should wait end of 5th wave of diagonal.
Note: There may be an infringement that may invalidate the count: As far as I know, the second wave can not be a triangle
Bests,
TRY (Turkish Lira)
CARRY TRADE CYCLES Carry Trade is the one of the most stylish trading system.Example on 1 years :
UK interest rates = 0,74
Turkey interest rates = 23
If i lend money with GBP and if i invest in Turkey 2Y bonds my real income is :
23 - 0,74 = 22,26 (%) (yearly)
Because of i invested with hot money , Turkish lira will get high and i can buy more Pounds if i want to get interest yield again. If im a good trader or a investment bank , my risk is so so low . Otherwise i can buy a lot of pounds with strong Turkish Lira and get high interest rate when i sell my Turkish lira, Turkish lira gets cheap and this time i can get a lot of Turkish lira again. This cycle is so profitable and suitable for community trading psychology. So carry traders transform market makers and every movements have affect for market making and it is more profitable and secure. But for an English invester, if Turkish economy get worse, even Turkish lira getting cheap and interests are not incresing or devaluations like Turkish lira got a few days ago or interests rates in dangerous places (%23 - %25 means %100 ROE in 4 years) everything getting more worse with double affect, fiat and interest rates opposite correlation lost and everything getting so much risky.
This is an example on historical data. I choosed Pound because UK's interest rates are more lower than USA.This idea will show why last year :GBPTRY drops a lot and this year is different. Let's see Turkish Lira's different between market conditions conveinent for Carry Trading or opposite.Best regards.
Least path of resistance and low volume! Higher prices are closeMACD crossed and very low volume phase started. No hard selling or any action that changes the price. While the weekly chart looks like a bearish flag, the daily chart is telling me something will happen soon. Watch for 20 moving average. It isn't going to be taken down easily. In the first higher high green daily candle, it is a but for surge with a stop loss below the last red candle. Try to take a position on the 20 SMA, if you intend to take a position. here is not a lot of resistance on the path of a new high around 7.6.
Here we are approaching something here. Sleepy Central Banking..While our goverment officals sleeping and doing nothing the price action started a cup and handle rally..
Here we have something.
It is approaching to the target levels..
Can our officers do anything.. ? In past years we all decided they are happy about this thing..
This can be sideway but it didnt.. When past 4 price we got sure that this is a cup and handle rally..
Here all investors are alone in this cruel world.. Central banking sleeps.... So they got paid well..
God bless them with their paycheck.. They made Turkish Lira currency Worst Money In the World..
hallelujah.....
My Next Long Term Position TRYJPY LongI am slowly building a big long position in TRY/JPY pair. Turkish Lira is quite under-valuated at these levels and despite the recent strength of Japanese Yen I think in the long run JPY will weaken across the board. This is a carry trade position which will bring lot of interest while running. At 8.5% current interest rate of Turkish Lira outperform almost all peers in the world and with inflation and demographics of Turkey slowly going down I think soon we will see a major trend reversal here with significant strengthening of the Lira by more than 10-15%.
Turkish Lira gave a devaluation signal on the monthly chartTom Demark count gave a green 2 on the monthly chart. This is a clear buy signal. This happens very rare on a monthly level. Green 2 on a monthly chart means we will have up to 7 months of uptrend.
Weekly and daily charts confirms this as well.
Previous ATH was 3.94320, I expect this will be broken soon, as double tops near ATH are unicorns.
In the upcoming weeks or months a major devaluation of Turkish Lira is possible.