USD/TRY aiming at 6.00? More weakness ahead for wounded liraOnce again, the lira is poised for weakness.
- The USD/TRY pair triggered an inverse H&S pattern, projecting a profit target at the 6.20 mark, with an intermediary target at 6.00 (round-number + horizontal resistance zone).
- The pair completed a pullback to the broken neckline, validating the inverse H&S pattern.
- A shorter-term horizontal support level lies around the 6.89 level
- The US is likely going to impose new sanctions on Turkey, following the Turkey - Syria conflict (lira negative).
- Wars are expensive, and Turkey's external debt is already near record-highs (lira negative).
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TRY
USD/TRY - Possible Breakout From A Descending Triangle*** DISCLAIMER ***
Any and all commentary, research, analyses, or other information published by me on this website are provided as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice nor a solicitation and there are no guarantees associated with them. I am not liable for any loss or damage, including without limitation, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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The price seems to have broken the descending triangle pattern, but I suggest to wait a possible retracement (maybe even in 1H TF) just to exclude the possibility of a false breakout.
On The Chart I tracked 3 possibility level of Take Profit.
EUR/TRY - Bullish Setup in a yearly symmetrical triangleFX:EURTRY
*** DISCLAIMER ***
Any and all commentary, research, analyses, or other information published by me on this website are provided as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice nor a solicitation and there are no guarantees associated with them. I am not liable for any loss or damage, including without limitation, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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The price did a false breakout just yesterday and then re-entered in the symmetrical pattern (11 months old) with a long 4H candlestick.
In my opinion the plan is to wait a retracement on the lower base of the triangle and wait for an engulfing or pin bar pattern, just to have a confirmation of the bullish pressure.
USDTRY LongAdmittedly, I've not made a good call on the Lira so far this year. Fundamentally the Lira is way overvalued at ~5.60, it's probably overvalued even at $6 but the CBRT has found clever ways to prop up the currency through swaps (and a billion or so in borrowed Yuan).
all that said, the algo is signalling long here, so I'll be taking a smaller position to balance risk in the event Trump decides to intervene in the dollar directly since the DXY is back over 98 (again) so a Trump tweet seems likely.