TRY
TRY/JPY 1H Chart: Pair shows upside potentialThe movement of TRY/JPY has been bounded in an descending channel during the past three weeks. This pattern is a part of a medium-term channel which has prevailed since early 2018.
Given that the pair reversed from the medium-term channel today, traders are expected to see a test of the 25.45 area which is reinforced by the 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the weekly PP.
In terms of downside potential, the nearest support is set by the weekly and monthly S3s circa 24.10, while no other barriers are located nearby. It is unlikely that the pair falls below this 24.00. If such situation occurs, the next target is the 23.00 mark.
Here we are approaching something here. Sleepy Central Banking..While our goverment officals sleeping and doing nothing the price action started a cup and handle rally..
Here we have something.
It is approaching to the target levels..
Can our officers do anything.. ? In past years we all decided they are happy about this thing..
This can be sideway but it didnt.. When past 4 price we got sure that this is a cup and handle rally..
Here all investors are alone in this cruel world.. Central banking sleeps.... So they got paid well..
God bless them with their paycheck.. They made Turkish Lira currency Worst Money In the World..
hallelujah.....
USD/TRY 1H Chart: Short-term appreciation expectedAfter reaching a new many-year high against the Turkish Lira three weeks ago, the US Dollar began depreciating in a short-term channel down. This pattern was breached in this session due to the bullish pressure of the most senior pattern near 4.04.
It is likely that the pair still tries to push higher in this session towards the monthly R1 or the aforementioned high at 4.14 and 4.1820, respectively. Additional bullish signals are provided by the fact that the pair surpassed the strong resistance cluster of the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the weekly PP today.
Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily time-frame suggest that some medium-term decline could be under way after this short-term surge.
EUR/TRY 1H Chart: Fall still expectedEUR/TRY was dominated by bearish momentum following a test of the senior channel near 5.17 on April 11. This movement was constrained in a downward-sloping channel. The pair managed to reduce the trading range within this pattern and breach the combined resistance of the 55–, 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the above channel.
This session marked a strong surge for the EUR/TRY exchange rate which resulted in a test of the 5.00 mark during the day. This up-move has pushed technical indicators in or near the overbought territory. Thus, the following days might mark a bearish reversal. Even more, it is likely that the Euro tries to edge even lower and reach the senior channel located near 4.86/88 before starting a new medium-term surge.
TRY/JPY 1H Chart: Lira remains near breached channelTRY/JPY has been appreciating in a two-week ascending channel which started when the rate reversed from the senior channel near 25.50.
This bullish sentiment resulted in a breakout of the medium-term channel and the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement at 26.60 during the previous session. However, it is likewise apparent that this two-week strong bullish momentum has allayed considerably this week, thus flashing some bearish signals.
It is likely that the pair remains guided by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs for a brief period of time prior to breaching this support and edging lower. The nearest support is the 200-hour SMA and the weekly PP at 26.37, while a more probable target is the weekly S1 at 25.93.
In case the aforementioned moving averages are not breached, the Lira should target the 38.20% Fibo retracement at 27.30 until early May.
EUR/TRY 1H Chart: Tended southThe common European currency has been appreciating against the Turkish Lira since early March.
During this time, the pair has moved higher in between the boundaries of a long-term channel. This appreciation allowed the pair to test this senior pattern at 5.18 on April 11. It subsequently edged lower and formed two new junior patterns.
The Euro is currently tangled around the 55– and 100-hour SMAs and the weekly PP circa 5.07. Technical indicators are bullish for the following session, suggesting that the aforementioned many-year high at 5.18 could be approached once again. This level, reinforced by the weekly R1 and the monthly R2, is likely to stand firm.
In the medium term, the pair is expected to maintain its downward-sloping tendency and move towards the bottom boundary of the senior channel in the 4.85/90 territory.
USD/TRY 1H Chart: Rate edges lower from yearly highThe bullish sentiment has been guiding USD/TRY since mid-February—a move which is confined by an ascending channel. This upward momentum intensified early in April when the US Dollar reversed from the bottom boundary of this pattern.
Meanwhile, the pair reached its highest position in several years near the 4.20 mark on Wednesday. As apparent on the chart, it likewise formed a pattern similar to head-and-shoulders. By mid-today, the US Dollar had fallen back down to the weekly R1 and the 100-hour SMA circa 4.09.
It is likely that the rate declines even lower in line with the senior channel and therefore reaches its bottom line and the 200-hour SMA at 4.04 early next week. The same bearish momentum could push the pair considerably lower in the medium term away from the aforementioned yearly high.
TRY/JPY 1H Chart: Steady climb in sightThe Turkish Lira keeps sliding lower against the Japanese Yen. The pair has lost around 11.25% since its peak at 30.30 on January 5. A dominant pattern that is guiding the pair from this time is a descending channel.
In terms of this week, the pair has been trading sideways with a slight tendency north. This movement began when the Lira reversed from the aforementioned channel near the 26.80 mark early this week.
It is expected that the Turkish currency continues to move in the current up-wave. This appreciation, however, might become more flat, especially when the rate approaches the 200-hour SMA and the weekly PP circa 27.30. In addition, technical indicators signal that the bearish sentiment should allay, thus allowing the pair to reach the upper channel boundary near 27.40.
In case bears take over the market, a fall below the weekly S1 at 26.60 is unlikely.
USD/TRY 1H Chart: Junior channel expected to hold firmUSD/TRY has been trading in channel down for the last three months. The upper boundary of this pattern was tested on January 9. The pair has since slid lower in a newly-formed junior channel.
If nothing extraordinary affects the rate, it is expected to remain within the boundaries of the junior channel until the upward-sloping trend-line located circa 3.75 is reached within the following two weeks.
In the short-term, however, the Greenback is likely to appreciate against the Lira, as suggested by oversold technical indicators. The pair could reverse from the weekly S1 at 3.7625 and move towards the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs located in the 3.7933/3.8035 area. Subsequently, a move towards the aforementioned trend-line should follow.
In case the bullish sentiment overwhelms the market, thus resulting in an upside breakout of the junior channel, gains could be capped at the 2018 high of 3.8363.
TRY/JPY 1H Chart: Lira pressured by strong resistanceThe movement of TRY/JPY has been guided by several patterns the most important of which for near-term trading is the seven-week channel down. Its upper boundary was tested early in February when the pair reversed from the monthly PP at 29.33.
It is likely that the Lira continues depreciating against the Yen within the following trading sessions in line with the junior pattern (drawn with dashed lines). The pair could still push slightly higher in the short term; however, the combined resistance of the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the weekly S1 is expected to provide an unbreakable barrier somewhere in the 28.65/28.95 area. A possible downside potential in this scenario could be the bottom boundary of a one-year descending channel circa 27.70.
In case the aforementioned resistance cluster is breached, bulls should guide the Lira towards the weekly PP at 29.33.