TSLA continues its downtrend toward Apirl earnings SHORTOn a TSLA chart, TSLA has been trending cown since last May. On the anchored VWAP lines,
it topped out crossing above the second upper VWAP about the first week of January '23 then
crossing under the same line on January 20, 23 Between August and October price tested and
consolidated about the first upper VWAP line. It then fell to the mean VWAP line and returned
in a retracement to the first upper VWAP line by December. paradoxically, price rose
after an earnings miss in October. From December through early February price fell through the
mean VWAP and received support with the first lower VWAP band. The faster EMA in black
crossed under the slower green EMA in early January. TSLA is last significant uptrend or
correction was a month before that. At present a continued trend direction of down
is predicted by the optimized EMA20/65 lines now diverging from a compression with the EMA
20 in black under the green EMA 65 line. A predictive modeling indicator by Lux-Algo
forecasts the persistent downtrend. TLSA could pick up support at the level of the pivot during
the April '23 earnings report or lower still at the second lower VWAP line at about 141.
Fundamentals can trump technicals but things out there are not looking great for TSLA
TSDD
TSLA moves yield volatility and trader profit LONGTSLA is shown here on a 15 minute chart with a set of anchored VWAP bands. A relative volume
indicator shows spiking volumes each and every morning and fades as the trading session wears
on. Overall, TSLA trends between the upper and higher VWAP bands and their counterparts
below the mean VWAP. Like most other stocks, TSLA has periods of ranging and other periods
where it trends. Day traders can capture intraday volatility while swing traders can sometimes
get a 10% move over 2-3 days. In the past month TSLA moved 5% up overall. However, in that
move price fluctuated widely which has been exploited by traders. The high trading volumes
keep spreads very low while the volatility makes options trading very challenging. Que sera,
sera.
TSLA - Relative Strength compared with peers and others SHORTOn a daily chart, the price action of TSLA is shown to be in a descending channel. An indicator
has been added to show the strength of various symbols as compared with QQQ the broad ETF
tracking the NASDAQ 100. TSLA is doing very poorly but better than FSR and XPEV which are
performing poorly but comparatively okay compared with TSLA. Of the symbols on this list
which is customizable and is a comparison on a daily time frame back six months NVDA, AMD
and META as well as NFLX are outperforming QQQ the most. I have used this to further
validate my TSLA put options overall as I also look at other stocks that may be of interest
based on six months of performance.
TSLA Golden and Death Crosses on a Daily Chart SHORTShown on this daily TSLA chart with the "alligator" indicator overlaid showing SMA 20, 50 and 200
without offsets are the golden crosses of last June as compared with the "death" crosses in
January. At least for the moment but sustained by the news and antics of its CEO, the writing
for TSLA may be on a gravestone?
Could TSLA short squeeze? LONGI have had two TSLA puts that have performed well. One was liquidated today to buy
a call optio. I may do the same thing to finish out the trading week. TSLA for one reason
or another while Musk announced he wants more shares from the board and pricing was
modified in Europe has stabilized its price in the market over the past 3-4 trading days.
Price is sitting one the support of a POC line from the intermediate past trading sessions.
Given the volatility and volume that TSPA commands, it is possible a short squeeze could
set up as shorts buy to cover having seen the consolidation at the bottom. New buyers
may see and entry and synergy might make for a decent uptrend. Time will tell.
I am a flip-flopper here but I see good reason to go long on TSLA at this time. I have drawn
in some horizontal pivots as reference points and will take partials along the way.
TSLA Reports and goes for a deeper dive SHORTOn this 4H Chart, I find good cause to continue my lot of 10 put options on TSLA. TSLA has
dropped another $ 25.00 per share price during the earnings report time frame. While the
overall long time frame supertrend is up, TSLA is presently in a sustained pullback likely due
to significant fundamental and economic factors. The antics of its CEO demanding an award of
more shares so he can launch a big AI initiative within TSLA is not helpful. He has taken a big
haircut but he can easily afford it.
In the analysis, TSLA has put in a bear flag which suggests more bullishness in the continuation.
The ceiling of resistance right now is the POC line of the volume profile at 230. If price can
get through that then 265 at the top of the volume profile's high volume area might be
achievable. A bottom may be the second lower VWAP band at 175 which could be reachable
in the latter part of the upcoming week. Weakness in the Chinese economy is a heavy weight
on TSLA right now. Bright days ahead but some pain and chaos in the meanwhile
Trade plan: I will hold the puts until I see a reversal pattern on the 30-60 minute charts and
then close them. If no reversal pattern in the upcoming week, for purposes of time decay
complications I will roll the puts out another 28 days. Overall, TSLA continues to pay traders
well some of them might buy a TSLA to return the favor with the profits received especially
if there are more price cuts on the horizon that do not adversly effect margins and fec\deral
subsidies are extended they would be an uplift to sales, revenue and outlook overall.
TSLA beginning another leg down SHORTOn the 15-minute chart, TSLA has been in a downtrend and for about one week, a correction
has been underway. Based on a Fibonacci analysis of the downtrend and and its retracement,
I do not believe that TSLA will breakthrough the fib level zone. The zero-lag MACD is showing
bearish divergence from the price action. In that consideration, I have held my put options
through this correction suffering unrealized losses but now look forward to another leg down.
Musk's recent court ruling nullifying his compensation package in federal court lends a bearish
perspective as does his distractions with the brain implant company which now has its first
patient ( FDA approved) and of course the space and tunnel companies. ( Autism and ADHD
can be a blessing and a curse at the same time - IMO) I am long LCID given its Saudi Arabian
support and growing production schedules supported by the SA plant. For now I am content
to short TSLA until the Meusk drama settles down and the watch to see if price lowering will
expand demand numbers et cetera.
TSLA SHORT with leverage TSDD ETFThis 1.5X leveraged ETF inverses the price action of TSLA with some amplification.
From the continuance of inflation, to Hertz liquidating 20,000 EVs ( prominent among them is
TSLA) in favor of return to ICEs to the rise of BYD in China and the ever present Musk in the
news like firing Space X employees without due process, TSLA is challenged and analysts
are calling for lower projected stock price. This is a way short TSLA at a lower price and risk.
The 2H chart shows a bullish HA candle today as price crossed over the longer trend following
moving average. Likewise, the RSI lines crossed over the 50 level rising from lows to end 2023.
This is an inexpensive stock without an options chain that has 60% near term potential should
it rise to its early November high at $28 A 0.5 Fib retrace of its down trend from that high in
November would bring price to $22. I will target $22 for 75% of the position and make the 25%
run for the $28 target while a stop loss of $.50 will allow for a normal range while rising to
the targets. I will raise the stop loss to break even after price rises by 0.55 and set a trailing
stop of $.50 once price rises by $0.75. I expect the trade to be in profit early and then
continuously increasing after that with a good backstop. TSLA's quarterly report comes out
on January 24th; this catalyst could accelerate profit if the report is less than expected by
investors and analysts. On the other hand, a fairly tight stop loss of about 3% will protect
the trade against a good earnings/revenue report whicch would surprise many.
loss of