BTC - Quick! M15 AnalysisWhat I expect to happen today - after climbinb back to around 23-23,5 - short !
Cheers!
TSG
BTC - What I expect to happen nextMy overall 2022 target got hit - $16k. But I was awaiting this last dip before a relief rally - although that one got defended by bulls and it never happened.
New Year euphoria took over and we're headed directly into the relief rally - I expect now a retracement to around $19k to create the handle of this cupandhandle pattern . Next step would be the skyrocketing move of this accumulation (and fractal confirms) to $ 25k-28k. Leverage positions show a big gap between 28 and 33k - So I am pretty confident we can experience a liquidity grab all the way to 28k area, but we possibly won't see enough fuel to get to above $33k - unless horny bears will keep shorting.
Timespan: This handle dip should get created until 25 Jan - 01 Feb, and the squeeze should happen just after - during the first half of February.
I expect FED to start cutting rates and markets to start going down big time from there.
Will keep monitoring this. Good luck !
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE vs SPXSo as you see - what comes down, must go up - UNEMPLOYMENT RATE is at record lows right now and when it did that - after some consolidation - it sttarted to grow - each time this happened, SPX entered a bear market.
Calculating the amount of days since the breakout of the UNRATE trend - it is a range of ~ 100 to 400 days before starting the decline on SPX - right now it looks like UNRATE has broken the trend for more than 300 days already.
So the decline isn't far. We haven't seen the worst yet.
BTC - still expecting my Area of InterestThe price is being dragged down - and it will get there - I expect it to hit that green area soon and bounce from there. Not end of the bear market, but possible major bounce before going for those low 10's.
BTC/VIX - this would be a very solid bottomThis would be a very solid bottom - if VIX popped up and BTC felt to it's major weekly support - it would create a wick on this supporting line and the bounce would be major. Expecting this to happen before buying into crypto.
DXY - fractal foundSo I have found this fractal - the ressamblance is uncanny. This also confirms a bit what I expect to happen - stocks should go a bit lower (Same for crypto) making DXY push to the upside for a fakeout - and then everything should bounce. Fractal agrees with that.
So still expecting a fakeout and then a big drop (high timeframe retest) of DXY
SPX - another 5% drop soonSPX Futures are showing a diamond formed on support and it bounced a 3rd time from the top of it - Together with the fractal it suggests a break out to the downside with a target below 3700. Both fractal and Diamond target confirm it.
VIX - idea is still clear2008 didn't repeat 1:1, but history tend to rhyme - and so it is doing right now.
VIX dropped lower than it should - very likely manipulation - but is holding a certain level - when I checked for any curve that could be adjusted to it - I noticed a small detail - 2021 fakeout.
2021 was the last push to the upside - the one that broke VIX trend - but now is holding to it once again. The channel is now clear and we are at the bottom of it.
Not bullish at all for stocks.
Vix likely to bounce up soon.
BTC retested!IT retested the broken curve channel and should be now headed to the Area of Interest which is my bottom for 2022.
BTC/SPX - bearflagBearflag playing out and about the break to the downside - expecting a retest of last low or even break to the lower strong support.
VIX is on strong supportVIX seems really bullish as it retests support and broken curve trend - Expecting a bounce up - which makes me bearish for stocks and risk-on assets.
DXY - descending wedge !DXY shows signs of strength around 103-104 - and SPX is in a downtrend again - Expecting a breakout of this descedning wedge and retest of top resistance.
SPX - what I expect to happenThis is the moves I am antincipating - Successfully shorted 4100 and now reopened a short at 3880. The markets are too afraid to risk a blow-off top move with a big recession ahead - so I'm expecting continuation until break of the downside.
BTC - example from another asset (fractal)So here is a fractal that was moving in a very similar way - from another timeframe so the scale of price movements are slightly off - but still the story is the same.
First we experience a double bear flag at a similar level - ended in a sell-off. That selloff turning back up and creating an illussion of a strong bounce - This get's silenced for a final selloff after.
We are missing the final selloff here.
You're welcome!
BTC Bear has spokenThat is not a Bear Flag anymore, this is a Bear Hammock. Big Bear says it's time. 2022's bottom is coming - 13-14k bounce to 25k !
Cheers!
BTCUSD - bottom until 20th DecemberThis is a local top now. Based on this wyckoff accumulation - where ever we endup until 18th-20th December - it will be the bottom. And long it.
BTC - Wyckof AccumulationHear me out on this.
Since we started falling in 2021 - On-chain data has been showing big retail buying together with whale sell-offs.
But since a few levels - 28k downward - Bigger accumulations have been happening (still with whale selloffs in the background).
This distribution got heavily mixed with accumulation and has landed on my 2021's prediction: 16k.
Now, around 16k, whales have been starting accumulating aswell, and the Wyckoff pattern being formed for the last few months is proof of it.
BUT the second top didn't happen - why?
The price is meant to reach certain area ! And it didn't yet. Because of the heavy accumulation (Buy the dip!) price hasn't reached the levels that it was meant to, therefore the price is being dragged lower to reach it during the Spring dip. It also saved the market from accumulating even more shorts at 20k levels.
The timing though is on point and it will stick that way - Spring is ahead and it will happen - and Mid December is the time when we long Crypto for a bounce.
SPX - close to closing the gap !Finally glosing that 4100 gap.
And from there I expect a big take-profits wave - If we cross 4100 and detach from the fractal - I will need to redo an analysis based on fundamentals and upcoming news results (PCE inflation, CPI, FOMC, NFP).
Cheers!
BTCUSD - Monthly hides a lot of hintsI'm a fan of curve channels just because they are clearer and they represent a more fluent trajectory of the price which makes more sense, than linear lines (Sentiment isn't linear, pa isn't linear , so channels shouldn't be aswell).
And it still works - you can see on the monthly created a clear orange channel (curves are basically copy pasted from each other and wicks match pretty nicely).
But good news - price has broken from those two and created a clear second channel ! So if you copy that new channel based on waves's tops - you can see the area of confluence and actual retest at the strong support area.
It's there where you want to actually long short/mid term.
Good luck!
BTCUSDT - Fractal life3 fractals agreeing on the movement - all of them show confluence at 13700 before going up to 22-25k.
Final flush afterwards.
Follow this idea and trade accordingly.
Fractals source: Different Assets and BTC Timeframes.
BTC - quick update - not bullish yet!As you see - my area hasn't been reached yet. I see whales are fomoing in, but I prefer to catch the bottom of this fall - expecting $14k before I put longs. Not expecting sub $10k as many out there - that won't happen this year, but first 14 and then maybe 12 is in the reach - will know more in December.
DXY - quick update after CPICPI results were better than predicted, but the pace at which it gets lower each month is just so small, that I still see nothing bullish. I would even say that this could give the FED more pros to rise rates even higher to get things done quicker than they are doing. 7.7% is still a big figure so I keep my bearish bias - based on SPX and VIX - I don't see DXY going much lower. Treating this as a fakeout for now.
