BTC/SPX - nailed!So it's been a long time since no drawing has been modified on this one - and it happened.
Crypto was just acting like it wanted to breakout from stocks, but it quickly came back down - the hard way.
Last time I posted when the breakout happened and commented, that I don't see it happening and it must be a fakeout - and so it was.
Still more downside ahead.
TSG
TOTAL - blue volatility?!So Total Market Cap is at ceiling with exhausted parameters and volatility has turned blue.
In my indicator, volatility going blue means it has crossed back into an area of "beginning to get volatile". If that happens at highs - it means volatility kicks in to start going down. And that's what I expect.
Unemployment Rate vs SPXI'm just the messenger.
SPX - orange
Unemployment Rate - Blue
Indicator - Moving Average out of Unemployment Rate
This isn't a rule, as many sectors influence the market, but big crashes have been paired with a growing Unemployment rate. Here we can see that it bottomed and is consolidating - which proofs a strong economy and no need to crash - this suggests the ongoing decline was just a correction.
To visualize this a bit more - I have coded a simple moving average to see when that curve will start heading up - and for now it isn't even turning up - this allows the market to push up before it starts turning.
But when it will ... Hold on to your seats lads and ladies. It's gonna be a fast ride.
Cheers!
NASDAQ fractal updateIt is scary how this is playing out - So far 1:1 and let's keep watching. Blow-off top or Blow-off bottom ?
Total Crypto MarketCap - This is somekind of topCurve channels are dangerous - watchout ! You may hurt yourself !
But once you get to know them - You see they are even stronger indicators than trendlines. Can I go a bit poetic here and say that hOOmans aren't linear but are more fluid, curvy, complicated? Well, PA reflects sentiment, so all of this would make sense.
Long story short - I expect marketcap to dip after this touch - Specially with TrendExhaustion and Whale Money being totally exhausted on Daily Timeframe !!
BTC Dominance went down?!What a Surprise !!
Not really. These kind of movements tend to do so. HTF looks pretty bearish for Bitcoin dominance, from a fundamental side it is possible to see retail and minor sharks going into alts in order to profit quickly which would drag the attention from BTC - But at some point it will spike when nobody's aware.
So bearish for now but would have my eye on this.
DXY updated - I'm the DXY whispererJust kidding. Or Am I?
A picture is worth more than a 1000 words so I leave you with my chart - Nothing has changed - I expect a HTF consolidation withing a bullish flag/descending wedge - and more up in 2022/2023
LTF is bullish until reached top of wedge/flag.
Cheers!
SPX Euphoric, but noI'm not believing this run up, All is built up on rumours of a pivot that hasn't been even announced officially. Speculation at it's best, but it's gonna cost a lot of blood on the market.
SPX had a good run, but a 75bps hike is coming and it's not gonna end well. Also SPX deviated from US100 - expecting a recalibration to happen.
This week is going to be interesting.
BTC - Short.That is what I am expecting and am trading right now - Expecting a bounce down to new lows - The fractal is just a representation of what's expected although I don't see it going that low - $14k area seems in the reach ( will judge that when we get there) - further lows will be left for 2023.
Cheers!
BTC / SPX - hesitationCrypto has been hesitating lately - should it break out or not - consolidation has now lead into a breakout to the upside - But this doesn't convince me - I expect this breakout to be a fakeout that will drop very soon, If we cross the orange line, we will head towards the upper red line, but I personally won't trade that.
BTCUSD is respectfulBTC respected all curves and has now broken up - Good ! Time to retest a long-term curve at $21k.
I am happy to see this, as I have been seeing a multi-week divergence already and was waiting for it to clear out - I will be bullish short term but first - we need to get rid of all retail longing until $14k.
Expecting the price to bounce down hard after reaching $21k area.
Be ready to invest at $14-$15k !