SPX playedout greatlyWe're where we should - at lowest lows of this year - additionally 200 ema weekly holding us here - I expect the bounce to happen - specially with dxy touching ceiling.
TSG
Vix looks scaryVix has crossed this curve up - this is really bad - I give it a final chance to recover after NY opens (specially with dxy at local ceilings) - if not - sky is the limit here.
BTCUSDT Wyckoff - just a theoryDon't hate me for this.
I expect a bounce, not straight fall down - therefore so far this last few weeks pattern reminded me of something....
Cheers!
DXY Weekly perspectiveSo here it is - so far it is going for my bear market target.
First we will attack the green area around 115$ and correct from it - and total target until 2024 should be all-time-highs at $150+.
That's where we can focus on re-buying assets.
SPX Vs FEDFUNDS - NOT BEAR MARKET YETAs you can see on the chart - everytime the FedFunds have topped and consolidated - stocks topped aswell and started its own bear market. Now, what we think is a top on SPX, may have been just a strong push which was later strongly corrected.
FedFunds haven't yet topped out and entered into consolidation here - although it is really near.
Based on that - highly likely to still see wonders before really declining.
Summary - Market knows what's coming and have reacted overly bearish. Once it gets exhausted with the bearishness, it may retest aths or even set new ones before entering the real bear market leading to recession and depression.
Stay safe !
BTCUSD Spot VS Perpetuals !!This whole low range last few weeks was mainly driven by perpetuals - but today - day after FOMC, we have fist signs of spot volume higher than perpetuals - and it is to the upside. That is good! Market doesn't seem so bearish after hearing the results - relief time
BTC.D hmmmm...It looks like the breakout has lead to consolidation around resistance - forming lows into a curve - this only leads me to think BTC could still go up but soon later will break down - possibly allowing ALTS to pump a bit. Keep monitoring this - for now bullish.
BTCUSD agitated, but holdingThe curve is still holding the price - the logical would be break to the upside and retest that higher descending trendline - we need to monitor what NY market does today at the opening - remaining bullish short term.
DXY just doesn't careit has crossed the curve, meaning it can go straight to 115 area. As easy as that - although if today it gets cancelled and comes back down - small relief for stocks - all depends of today.
SPX reacted bearish, BUT...It is only fulfilling the patterns it has created lately + it has closed an open gap it left behind.
Reaching fib level + RSI in the area from where it tends to bounce - I remain bullish.
VIX spiked, but......but came down immediately afterwards - it was scary for a second - but it still feels like it needs a retest lower parts before attempting to break to the upside.
Without a confirmed breakout - I'm expecting a higher low first.
NASDAQ you want to see thisObeying my curvy channel - so long story short - bullish until it hits the top of the curve - additionally a second tp level at orange trend line - if it gets rejected at these - I'll sell everything.
VIX - 2007-2008 pattern?Have been analysing all VIX recoveries after big drops and 90% of them were the same - a curve to the downsidefor some time until a rounded bottom appeared and pumped the value sky-high crossing the long-term curve.
This time it is different. We recovered from last big drop (Covid Crash) the same way as always - but we didn't pump as we used to - and this has happened just once before - 2007-2008. The top rounded to the downside and the bottom acted like breaking down (bullish for stocks) creating an illusion of a bull market. The rest happened as you can see - the it bounced down again but creating a higher low, which was an indication of willing to go up and break the rounded top.
This time we have the same exact situation, but we are missing one more leg down. Will we repeat that same behaviour just before the crash? Meaning a last stock/risk-on assets pump before falling ?
Stay safe.
US Treasure Bonds Yields - Long TermAlright so I've come up with a formula between different US Bond Yields resulting in an oscillator indicator - which successfully signals tops on the stock markets and the bear market after.
Based on the area where that oscillator crosses the 0 value (down), we start topping until it comes back up. This period last in average around 1 year and is aligningt +/- with the actual top of SPX.
This is a period in which stocks may consolidate or still go up - overall an area of indecission, ending bullish power etc.
The actual drop always comes after that period and last up to 800 days- depending on the strength of the previous bull trend - The longer and stronger, the bigger the fall.
All such corrections were hitting lower than 0.618 fib level - meaning we will hit 2200 or even 1600 (SPX).
Key takeaways:
- We're not in an actual Bear Market yet.
- We are in consolidation meaning a pump for ath retests is possible until March 2023 +/-
- After March 2023 we should start real falls until around March 2025
- SPX Bear Market Target 1600-2200
Sorry and you're welcome!
BTC All-Time-ChartEverything is on the chart - just to fill your perspective with additional nuances. Sorry and you're welcome!
BTCUSD vs US01YUS10Y has been crazy lately. It has broken an all time down-trend channel and was moving just like we would like BTC to move. But anyways... Why does this affect the market ?
When confidence is high, 10-year bond prices fall and yields climb. This is because investors believe they can find higher-yielding investments elsewhere and do not believe they need to be conservative.
In other terms - if risk assets bad, us10y good and vice-versa. As we can tell by the chart - investors have been running away to US Government backed Treasury bond to save themselves from the drops. But what now, when we're reaching high levels?
At first US10Y was driving up together with the rest of the markets - since covid's '20 crash we experienced a massive bounce (or pump) on all assets. This positive correlation has lasted until breaking the descending resistance on US10Y - since then the correlation was only negative for crypto and it is there, where risk-assets investors started saving their funds into bonds.
Right now US10Y is approaching a really big confluence of resistance: ascending triangle target, long time resistance level and top of curvy channel. Crossing this is almost impossible, specially if last weeks were growing evenly week by week creating a stair-like growth . And those like to drop heavily afterwards... + we're at resistance (reminder).
If US10Y bounces down now, it would mean BTC $17k was a local bottom (not long term, just for now!) and could make up all the fall it had until now as investors would re-enter risk-on assets
Where would BTC bounce to ? $38k-$40k if euphoria doesn't drive it further. It was since then when BTC started falling down without retesting broken levels.
Hope this helped you understand markets a little bit more today. If there's nothing new to you here - you are an MVP.
Cheers!
PS: Too early to judge, but if the price bounces to those levels - it would create a cup/handle pattern.
All is in FED's hands now.
BTCUSD Quick ! What's to come on LTF!Curvy channels always end up the same way - retracement to the downside - but keep an eye on the level I marked with the arrow - RSI will most likely get oversold there - it will be a sign to long!
Summary: Short now, Long later.
Cheers!
ALTPERP what would you say, huh?Last several months were brutal already, making us a bit sceptic about further lows as how long can this go ?!
But also a big chunk of the market is really focused on catching really low prices, accepting the way we are going. That would be too easy. Here we landed on great support and we are close to the top of the descending channel. It looks like a breakout to the upside could be possible, having in mind RSI got totally oversold - and we could have a small run up to retest a strong resistance, before retesting the bottom of the bear market.
Stay safe.
USDT is whisperingThe result is pretty similar to DXY, but the way the story is told is different.
Here we can see a top being retested a few times, forming a potential Head and Shoulders. If the price fills the pattern - it will need to confirm it at the 0.618 fib level, which is one of the most common correction levels and it sits at strong support. It is then when we need to monitor on what it will do - if the HS gets confirmed - we happy until the bottom of the growing channel. If we fail - we will see that brutal side of the bear market on stocks and crypto.
Good luck and stay safe!
ETHUSD You will unfollow me after thisWell... I don't make the rules. Hate the game, not the gamer.
Having that said - curvy channels are more than powerful and are yet to be "traditionalized" in this game. Until they are a common thing, they will show great reversal points - and on the weekly chart here - we can see the price has been obeying the top curvy channel and hasn't touched the bottom for a very long time.
Not saying we're going there in 1 blow - but that's the bottom of the bear market to me.
Imagine the depression that leads to that.
BTC - you don't want to see this- Lack of power
- At support with already strong weekly candle
- H&S
- Close to an all-time curve
- Even with a short-squeeze - we're headed to that level.
The good news is that it will bounce greatly from there.
BTC/SPX forming a curvy channelSo far the relation crypto/stocks hasn't played out and double bottom with a reverse H&S hasn't been confirmed - therefore it keeps withing the descending triangle pattern but also formy a curvy channel - at which we are at the bottom (is that correct english?). Anyways - I would expect Crypto to recover a bit from there, if it doesn't .... Well - I marked the next support level. This would be brutal.
DXY Showing weaknessIt had a really strong up-run, but now it's showing signs of weaknes forming a down-curved channel at the top - ofcourse if it crosses the line it will spike to the above resistance, but from where I see it - it looks like it's time to lose this ascending wedge and correct a bit. Expecting a break to the downside soon. Possibly FED's meeting will be a trigger.
