VIX whats next?Vix did what we expected - it bounced up respecting the curvy channel and is now dancing at the top. CPI came out a bit better, but that is no relief in thinking the bear market is gone. We didn't even hit the expected progress in this subject, therefore I remain bearish long term.
I expect VIX to respect the curve here and try and retest lows (red line more likely), but if we cross the channel - we will go as the green line shows - meaning brutal bear market reality.
Keep safe either way, cause all ways lead in 1 direction at the end.
TSG
SOL Huge Weekly H&SWell, this isn't what we want to see.
Sol has tried to break the curvy channel, which would gain volatility and push the price most likely up. But fundamentals aren't favorable for the markets and price is still within that range - if it doesn't breakout soon, It risks breaking out to the downside, fulfilling the Head and Shoulders pattern with an extremely low target.
Have in mind it can still fakeout to the downside - the HS needs a succsessful retest before proceeding further. Watch this area!
Good luck!
VIX - really bearish for stocksWorking out like a charm - it respected the first trendline and bounced exactly to the top of the curvy channel.
Now, if we cross this one - this is doom to me already. We will gain volatility up and stocks will crash heavy - the last hope will be at 32-33 level but I dont think it will hold a big volatility push.
Good luck.
BTC - LTF AnalysisToday CPI - so before anything - we should wait for the results and see how the market reacts. If it wasn't for that, I'd say M15 just retested broken ascending wedge and hit a major resistance confluence and would aim to go for the bottom of the ascending channel.
Momenter and HighsLows are slowly reversing down.
My Mid term top is retest of $25k - if we cross 25,2k - I will turn bullish. Going back to $24k will turn me bearish again.
BTC - Confluence of resistanceThe push proceeded totally as expected, reaching the wedge's target.
right now we have overbought indicators everywhere (TrendExhaustion, VolumeTrend, HighsLows, RSI) creating with last push a bearish divergence on resistance.
I am bearish specially seeing stock's sentiment at resistance aswell, if we cross it in one blow - will turn even more bearish. My top sits at 24,8k area.
SPX some pattern developedLately we've seen bigger waves down together with correction bounces - in which market turned bullish each time. As you can see - this pattern has repeated twice, each time getting deeper - right now we managed to hold the bears a bit for some time, but the pattern still persists - this time not aiming so deep, but still allowing to think we can retest the local bottoms at least one more time. VIX's curves (check VIX idea) is also creating a curvy channel with chances of pump up after the breakout (Which would be bearish for SPX).
Either way - today and tomorrow will be crutial for next weeks - We need to monitor those marked areas and seek breakouts with volumes.
I remain bearish.
Cheers!
VIX - UPDATE So far VIX moved according to our plans.
Where we are:
- touch of triangles bottom
Where we are headed:
- If we break that trendline - we will move towards the bottom curve
- If we bounce from here - the top curve shouldn't be a resistance anymore - and from there a brutal drop in stocks and crypto
Crutial beginning of week and upcoming CPI results. Monitor those 2 areas to eventually breakout.
NASDAQ & VIX Next MovesWe are in a bear market and even a bounce up won't change that. And this market will last longer than most anticipate.
Here on Nasdaq we have a 2008 SPX fractal showing how the sentiment drove the market, before collapsing - and as always - it doesn't repeat, but it rhymes. What we need to focus on right now is ... time. We are in an area where we are anticipating a fall, but we don't know when - and most likely will happen when noone expects it.
IMHO before the collapse we can still experience the sentiment to drive VIX to the lower curve of the drawn channel, which could possibly drive stocks to retest the top once again. IF that happens - I'm selling everything. I don't expect the market to go through that curve. Curvy horizontal channel tend to break to the opposite direction than they are initially pointing - in this case it would mean to the upside for VIX = Bearish for stocks. The 2008 Fractal seems to confirm such move both in time and price action.
If VIX goes through the roof of that channel - this will be brutal.
Stay safe and really monitor those areas.
AXS - I'd wait a little bit longerThe breakout of the wedge is ahead - for both low and high timeframe - but before we break out, Momenter is signalling a rising bearish momentum which would make sense as to finally hit the $11 area which is a strong support - price didn't touch it yet and it would be a pretty good area to long - Keep your eyes on it. If we break out to the upside, 28-30$ is an easy reach if BTC bounces aswell.
BTC MidTermThis drop caused by FTX SPOT selling scared the market, but we are totally exhausted at support - this wedge got now filled and it is likely to go for some relief - although won't go as high as expected. Most likely highest will be retest of local tops at $23-$24 k.
Will turn bearish once we reach those levels.
SPX/VIX - Very Important ChartSPX/VIX has been signaling all the best buys and sells for the past few years and it will be a very crutial chart to look at when willing to invest. Here we can see all trends reversals according to stocks and markets sentiment. All touches of the green area have been a great buy opportunity and as you can see - we are nowhere near it yet - sentiment is still heading there.
Right now moving in a curvy channel reversing to the upside - we need to monitor if the chart will bounce within that channel up, or cross it.
Crossing it down will signal a strong bearish momentum and we should act accordingly.
All SPX/VIX dips are marked on BTC aswell - you don't want to miss it.