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Trading the DMI with ADX, TSI and EMA (WHEATUSD) cont.Setting up a trade based on daily signal using 4 hour chart for timing. In this scenario, the daily chart had its ADX below 20 since July 3rd. When trading with DMI/ADX, periods of breakout after the ADX has been below 20 for at least 7-10 periods can provide good results. In this case, the 4 hour chart had dropped below 20 for an extended period too. On July 17th , price moved up which caused the +DI to cross up over the -DI. Based on Wilder's strategy, you would place a buy stop above the high of the day (either the high or a number greater than it). With this strategy, you may consider the stop at a point below the low for the same day. In cases where the daily range is small, then placing orders in this way may not cause too much of a draw down. However, in case where the daily range is large, the risk is much higher though there are cases where it's just the way it works out (recent ngas activity that I'll use in an example in a future article). Alternatively, you could choose to place the stop at something like a 75% retrace of the daily candle when placing the buy stop at the high of the day. Another option is to place your buy order as a limit order somewhere in the 25-75% pullback of the daily range that caused the DMI to swap . On the 4hr chart, marks the day that daily DMI swapped dominance while shows the 25/50/75% breakdown of this price range. While this strategy can reduce the risk of having a larger draw down, it also introduces the risk of missing a trade. I'll review more examples of both of these scenarios in next article.
OANDA:WHEATUSD
by mxb1961
Trading the DMI with ADX, TSI and EMA (WHEATUSD)In my first article, I provided a summary of the tools I’m using plus links to some good material that gives more in-depth details of each. As I go through each concept, I’ll refer to the 3 time frames that I will use in determining a trade. • Weekly: to get the overall bias of the market • Daily: to identify a day to take a trade or to setup a trade • 4 hour: to identify the timing or refine the timing of the trade My goal is to trade a small set of markets across various types which will include E-Mini contracts of Wheat and Corn and E-Micro contracts of Euro, Aussie$, and Gold. I’ve tried to trade crude oil (wti) options with mixed success but won’t actually outline trades but use it in the examples. For the E-Mini’s, I’ll limit my initial entry to 1 contract while the for the E-Micro’s (except Gold), I’ll up limit to 2 contracts. My main goal now is to make more money than I lose to remain in market so that I can continue my education in trading. In this article, I’ll review one of the primary aspects of the DMI as outlined by Wilder and that is the equilibrium point of a market. In his book, on page 45, he states that “Good directional movement is not simply straight up or straight down movement. It is also good up and down movement in excess of the equilibrium point. This, in effect, is what the ADX measures. The equilibrium point is reached when the +DI equals -DI.” More detail can be found in his book and various online articles. In the example of WHEATUSD (I trade e-mini wheat but use WHEATUSD for analysis as I can get near real-time data feed on TV without additional cost), I’ve noted 3 times since April of this year that the market has been at an equilibrium point on the daily chart (A, B, and C picked to mark the spot but not to imply any type of wave stuff). In the first 2 cases, the ADX was above 20 while in the 3rd, the ADX was below 20 at the time of the cross. General speaking, when the ADX is declining and is at 25, it is best to be cautious when the DI’s cross. However, when the ADX drops below 20, it’s best not to trade but to wait for some type of pattern to evolve and trade the breakout. I’ll go through examples of this in future articles. For now, I’ll focus on the 3 times where the market reached equilibrium. In his book. Wilder notes that the day this happens, it is an important date to note (on the daily chart but translates into the period of chart you’re using) as it can prove to be significant in the future too. On page 47 of his book, he reviews a key concept in his systems called the Extreme Point Rule and this is either the high or low made on the day. Depending on if you’re long, you would use the low as the stop and if you were short, you’d use the high as the stop. If not in the market, you could use this point to enter the market by placing a ‘stop’ order at this point. In reviewing these three lines, from a hindsight perspective, it’s obvious now that the markets moved in the direction you wanted but in case ‘B’ only after a considerable drawdown. And, in ‘A’ and ‘B’, potentially the same depending on your appetite for drawdowns. There are cases where the market does continue quickly in the direction of the cross but there are also times that it doesn’t immediately. This is the area I’m studying now trying to discover what conditions lead to one vs. the other. Looking at these three cases, another strategy to think about is that of placing the order at a 25-50% pullback level into the candle that caused the market equilibrium with a stop just below/above the extreme of the same day. In my next article, I’ll focus in on the markets noted above and review the daily charts YTD to see how this strategy would have played out.
OANDA:WHEATUSD
by mxb1961
1
Trading the DMI with ADX, TIS and EMAI’m not a successful trader. I was fortunate (?) to have a father introduce me to trading futures when I was ~12 in the early/mid 70’s (he created a study guide and sat me and my 2 older sisters down at the kitchen table to review it weekly). I was ‘successful’ in the mid/late 80’s but that too went away as did the desire, time and money to continue. 4 years ago I decided to pick it up again but to-date, have not met with success. Maybe my story is typical or atypical, you can decide for yourself. As you can tell from my past posts, I’ve tried/experimented with a lot of different strategies and ideas. As of today (this week as I write), I’ve decided to commit myself to a simple strategy of using the DMI with ADX, TSI, and a trilogy of EMA’s (that is an accumulate of many different things I've learned in the past 4 years). The two books (trading related) that I focus on are listed here: Welles Wilder Book Elder’s Book Details runs amuck on the web regarding the DMI and ADX but these (especially the first link on trading breakouts) I’ve found to be more beneficial. Various links for ADX: Trading Breakouts (you can download the pdf from this site too) ADX Breakouts What is my current configuration : EMA on price at 9/13/26 period TSI: 25/13/7 (the 25 & 13 are default on TV but I use the 7 on trigger DMI/ADX: 14/14 these are defaults as specified by Wilder though you ‘ll see experiments on the web with a lot of different setups. Personally, I try to use the default as Wilder has laid out and not try to optimize them. I use the same configurations on all time frames that I track (weekly, daily, and 4 hour) As you review the slides on the breakout strategy from above, it walks through a scenario of using a 20 period EMA in conjunction with DMI/ADX. I’ve chosen to use the 13 and 26 as a boundary to achieve the same concept. On pg. 48 of his book, Wilder notes: “I know that for many, the Directional Movement concept and its implications have not been easy to comprehend; however, those who pursue it will be rewarded for their effort.” No matter how many times I’ve dropped using the ADX, I’ve always held on to this statement and have come back to it to determine what I’ve missing or haven’t gotten. As I said, I’m not a successful trader today, but my goal is to work to become one. In the opening to his book, Elder notes: “You can be free. You can live and work anywhere in the world. You can be independent from routine and not answer to anybody. This is the life of a successful trader”. Then, in the next 250 pages, dispels myths and such in addition to working through all sorts of tools to achieve this goal. So, why do I feel I can achieve this goal? Well, the 3rd non-trading book I’m reading gives me this hope: Ecclesiastes 9:11 “I have seen something else under the sun: The race is not to the swift or the battle to the strong, nor does food come to the wise or wealth to the brilliant or favor to the learned; but time and chance happen to them all.” The substance of hope and the desire to be ready for your time when it comes. In following posts, I’ll work through examples of how I try to use these indicators (primarily the DMI/ADX).
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by mxb1961
DONT GET CAUGHT IN THE BULL TRAP. SHORT SPXAs you can see we have continued our way printing that nice thicc inverse head and shoulders. We had little bit of a run up yesterday and suddenly the media sentiment shifted. DONT GET CAUGHT UP IN THE HEADLINES. Apple will not save you, Boeing will not save you, the fed will not save you. The top has blown off. Dont pay attention to the bull trap! Keep your shorts and lets make some money. Scoopity Poop Poop De Woop Poop Scoop Darklord_
SP:SPXShort
by I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I
4
SPX: Market Crash or Bargain Hunting?Volatility is back bitches. We have seen more 1% swings since the beginning of 2018 than we saw all of last year! While that may be scurry if ur managing portfolios, its exactly what I love to see. More swings, more opportunitys, more trades, more profit. But lets jump into the chart shall we. The big thing we see here is a big PHAT double top. And whenever we get a sloppy toppy you know what we do. Its time to short to the neckline (In green). Additionally, we just broke down another bear flag. Looking for a 2% upside with a stop loss around 1%. If we see the double bottom its very likely we rebound and continue the bull market unless we see a catalysts. But hey, from how these past two weeks have been, I wouldn't rule anything out. Until next time, Happy Trading
SP:SPXShort
by I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I
8
BTCUSD rough channel til JunUsing 1day-Bollinger Bands (BB,20,3) and SMI Ergodic Indicator (well, basically both are price based as SMI_Ergodic is based on True Strength Index) for BTCUSD and adding a rough extrapolation (using data from Jan-Jun, 2014) -> I think that BTC might be zigzagging in the roughly-hand-drawn channel (upper: red, lower: green). This is NOT a trading advise, just a biased idea from a non-pro. Do your own analysis, study risks and use stops . Criticism/comments/ideas welcome.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bricoleurs
1
How much will overbought Materials Sector Fall? XLBThe Materials Sector SPDR Fund has been in a bull trend since the end of the financial crisis. The trend has narrowed but remains upright since December 2016. The fund has been in a more specific trend channel since February and has created firm support and resistance levels. The fund is currently at that resistance level. Below I have laid out the reasons and levels to which the fund may dip will it continue its overall bull trend. When we take a look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 64.9868. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is below overbought levels, however, the RSI has developed a resistance point of its own. The RSI has been reaching lower highs since December 2016 and is once again at this key resistance point. If the RSI begins to retreat, the fund should follow suit. The true strength index (TSI) is currently 4.4168. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. Like the RSI, the TSI has created relative resistance since December. This indicator is about to hit that threshold. Failure to substantially break above this resistance, the fund should drop in the near-term. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.1174 and the negative is at 0.7410. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. These indicators have been in a relatively tight trend since mid-February. When the positive VI was last at its current level, the fund tapered down which ultimately led to a drop to the fund's support line (dotted pinkish-purple on the chart). The stochastic oscillator K value is 92.2124 and D value is 87.3198. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic currently overbought, but the D value has not overtaken the K value, meaning the fund could produce gains for a few more days before ultimately turning downward. The last three times the fund hit its resistance, it did manage to drop down to its support level in less than 12 days. The first drop was in January over 9 trading days and it resulted in a 3.62% decline. March saw a 3.41% decline over then following 6 trading days while April had a 2.91% drop over 11 days. These timeframes and declines could be blueprints for the current bounce off of the resistance level. Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the fund could drop at least 2% over the next 23 trading days if not sooner.
AMEX:XLBShort
by StockSignaler
Comcast Will Give Some BackComcast has been in a bullish trend since January 2016. During this course of this trend, the stock has moved down after hitting resistance. The stock is currently at this point of resistance and should follow suit by moving down. Near-term downward movement is outlined below. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 72.7044. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is near overbought levels. The last two times the stock spike up to its current resistance trendline, the RSI was also at similar levels the stock was at on May 30. Both of these resistance and RSI indicators led to a 4% drop for the stock. This is the first indicator of potential near-term downward movement. The true strength index (TSI) is currently 18.8524. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The TSI has been trending up, and there is no telling where its future direction shall go. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.2278 and the negative is at 0.7091. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. These indicators have currently spiked favorably to the upside. This won't last forever, but as long as the positive stays above the negative this could slow any drop in the stock. The stochastic oscillator K value is 91.0208 and D value is 95.4541. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. This indicator is clearly overbought. The last four times this indicator reached this point the stock fell. Similar to the RSI analysis above, This overbought level led to a 4% decline in the stock over the following weeks and the same is expected in our current case. This is the second indicator of potential near-term downward movement. The stock is at its resistance point, the RSI and stochastic are flashing overbought. These three indicators have been accurate when occurring together during the stock's year and a half bull trend. Natural up and down movement is common in any bull or bear trend. The stock has a history of bouncing off its current resistance level down to one of two support levels before moving up again. The solid yellow line support on the bottom may not occur this time, but the dotted white line is very plausible. Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop at least 3% over the next 32 trading days if not sooner.
NASDAQ:CMCSAShort
by StockSignaler
American Airlines Losing Some AltitudeAmerican Airlines has been in a bullish trend since last year. During this course of this trend, the stock has moved down after hitting resistance. The stock is currently at this point of resistance and should follow suit by moving down. I will outline why the near-term movement is likely to the downside below. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 65.8724. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is not necessarily at an overbought point, but it has been trending lower since December. During this downtrend, the RSI has failed to break through this resistance. The RSI is currently at this point of resistance. If the RSI fails to move above it, the stock could begin its downward movement in the near-term. This is the first indicator of potential near-term downward movement. The true strength index (TSI) is currently 12.0840. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The TSI has been trending up, but its upward movement is starting to stall. This stall is the second indicator of potential near-term downward movement. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.1147 and the negative is at 0.7578. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The positive indicator has stayed above the negative indicator for almost two months. This won't last forever, but as long as the positive stays above the negative this could slow any drop in the stock. The stochastic oscillator K value is 85.2360 and D value is 64.3122. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The K value is currently overbought, but the overall oscillator is not yet overbought. The stock's current bull trend has naturally cycled up and down to get from bottom to top. During this current trend channel, the current stochastic level has served as a top and the stock dropped. On March 30, the stock fell over 4% over the next 3 trading days. On May 11, the stock fell 6% over the next 5 trading days. This is the third indicator of potential near-term downward movement. Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop at least 3.5% over the next 20 trading days if not sooner.
NASDAQ:AALShort
by StockSignaler
Leidos To Give Some BackLeidos has been in a bullish trend since last year. During this course of this trend, the stock has move down after hitting resistance. This resistance was struck once again on May 25. May 25 also paved the way for a double top, which is a bearish signal. I will outline why the near-term movement is likely to the downside below. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 63.7117. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is overbought and due to drop. This indicator has not received overbought territory since the end of February. However, this indicator has been trending downward preventing newer highs. Currently, this oscillator is at the resistance point it has been reversing at. This is the first indication of potential downward movement in the near-term. The true strength index (TSI) is currently 8.0001. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. This indicator has also had resistance similar to that observed in the RSI oscillator. Once again the indicator is near that level of resistance. This is the second indication of potential downward movement in the near-term. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.9866 and the negative is at 0.9193. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. Currently both indicators are relatively flat (below 1) and have been in a very tight movement span since early May. The stock should move in the direction of which ever indicator breaks from this tight pattern. The stochastic oscillator K value is 89.3405 and D value is 58.6453. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The K value is currently overbought, but the overall oscillator is not yet overbought. The stock could move up a little more before reversing, or it could simply reverse now. This is the third indication of potential downward movement in the near-term. The formation of the double top is the fourth indication of potential downward movement. A double top occurred in March and the stock dropped 9.33% over 16 trading days. If this is indeed a double top, a similar drop could occur. Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could gain at least 2.60% over the next 29 trading days if not sooner.
NYSE:LDOSShort
by StockSignaler
Potential Bullish Head and Shoulders, Heading Down FirstQualcomm has been potentially forming a well-known technical trading indicator called a head and shoulders (HnS) pattern. This pattern is basically made up of three peaks or triangles with the middle triangle have a higher top than the ones flanked on each side. A HnS pattern with the peaks on top is bearish as the stock drops upon the final triangle (or shoulder) taking shape. A bullish HnS is the opposite where the peaks are actually valleys. Upon the final shoulder being created, the stock goes up. I have outlined the case below on the currently forming bullish HnS pattern. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 75.1524. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is overbought and due to drop. The stock should drop with this. A drop will begin the formation of the final shoulder in the HnS pattern. The true strength index (TSI) is currently -0.4758. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock has been moving up, but it is near the levels of reversal that occurred at the initial forming of this HnS. This further aids in a potential indicator of near-term downward movement. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.3659 and the negative is at 0.5682. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. Currently both indicators are at extreme levels which typically lead to a reversal of the stock. This is the third indication of near-term downward movement for the stock. The stochastic oscillator K value is 84.6919 and D value is 85.7988. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is currently overbought and due to retreat. This is the fourth indication of pending near-term downward movement. During the possible formation of this current HnS setup, the 200 day moving average (DMA) has acted as a strong level of resistance. This means the stock approaches the 200 DMA (redline across the chart) and then it drops. Currently, the stock is nearing this DMA further signaling a retreat is coming. I am only focusing on the first leg of the remaining HnS in this article. The chart above does display the movement of this leg that completes the final shoulder top and the green up arrow depicts estimated completion of the shoulder. After the right shoulder is completed, earnings should be reported for QCOM. The results from earnings could be the jolt that fully completes this pattern and finally excels above the 200 DMA. Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop at least 8% over the next 28 trading days if not sooner.
NASDAQ:QCOMShort
by StockSignaler
Continued Downside For ExelonOn May 16, Exelon Corporation crossed below its 150 day moving average (DMA) and 200 DMA. One day prior, the stock crossed above both moving averages. A double cross above followed by an immediate cross down has occurred four times in the history of the stock. The double up/double down has resulted in a minimal loss of 0.283%, median loss of 4.644% and maximum loss of 8.333% over the next 26 trading days. On its own, the stock has crossed below the 150 DMA 172 times and the 200 DMA 124 times and the stock does not always continue to drop. The cross below the 150 has resulted in a median loss of 3.927% and a maximum loss of 25.050%. The cross below the 200 DMA has led to a median loss of 4.287% and 21.391% over the following 26 trading days. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 47.3256. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is neutral and it could go any direction. The true strength index (TSI) is currently -23.1234. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock has been moving down for most of 2017. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.8414 and the negative is at 1.0547. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. Currently the negative and positive indicators are moving closer together, but near-term movement still favors more bearish action. The stochastic oscillator K value is 60.6330 and D value is 36.1408. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is currently moving up The next few days will be key in determining if the stock will continue its downward movement. The K is currently higher and moving up, meaning the stock could move up. Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside, although definitive downward movement may take a few more days to develop. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop at least 2% over the next 26 trading days if not sooner.
EShort
by StockSignaler
Time For Humana To Naturally Cycle DownHumana Inc has been in a clearly defined bullish trend since July 2016. As of the close on May 15, this stock is at the top of the cycle which is near a strongly established resistance line. The projected future movements are highlighted below. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 73.8915. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is just beginning to exit overbought territory and should encourage the stock to move bearishly down. The true strength index (TSI) is currently 34.8840. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock has been moving up. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.2844 and the negative is at 0.7283. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. Currently the positive indicator had been moving up, but the upward action is slowing. The stock should begin to move down and the positive and negative indicators will begin to move closer together. The stochastic oscillator K value is 85.7857 and D value is 88.5560. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is currently in overbought territory and the D is above the K value meaning the stock should begin to fall. A similar pattern with volume occurred in December 2016. The stock moved up on greater than average volume for 4 days in a row before the stock began to sell off on greater than average volume. The same thing occurred on May 15. During this sell off in December, the stock sold off around 10% over the next 20 trading days. Even though something like this is possible right now, I conservatively believe the stock will hold to its white-dotted trendline which is a drop of at least 4%. Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside, although definitive downward movement may take a few more days to develop. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop at least 4% over the next 33 trading days if not sooner. More at LimitLessLifeSkills!
NYSE:HUMShort
by StockSignaler
Technically Speaking, Real Estate Could Move UpThe SPDR fund tracking the Real Estate Sector (XLRE) has been in a clearly defined upward trend since November 2016. As of the close on May 12, this fund is at the bottom of the cycle which is near a strongly established support. The projected future movements are highlighted below. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 41.0131. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading has the fund relatively neutral although it recently came down from near the overbought level The RSI is currently at a similar level where all the previous bottoms have occurred. This is the first indicator the fund should begin moving up. The true strength index (TSI) is currently 2.6338. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock has been moving down, however, it is also near the same level where the previous bottoms in this cycle have been established. The TSI has also been trending up in a bullish wedge pattern. With the indicator around the same support level, this is the second indicator the fund should begin moving up. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.8623 and the negative is at 1.1873. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. Currently the negative indicator is slowly moving upward which is bearish for the fund. At the same time, the positive indicator has begun to move upward. When the negative indicator finally does reverse downward and the positive makes more strident gains, the fund should be in its upward cycle. The stochastic oscillator K value is 39.1887 and D value is 41.1774. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. This indicator is technically in the middle of the oscillation possibilities at the moment. The next 2-5 trading days are pertinent to determine if the actual long-term movement is to the upside. I have broken down the last three times the fund was near its current point in the trend channel. All three of them resulted in a minimal gain of 3.92% in a minimum of 12 trading days. My current projected movement is on the conservative side, however, the stop-loss will be any movement below 31.24. Movement to this level breaks outside the support level and could lead to major downward movement for the fund. Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the upside, although definitive upward movement may take a few more days to develop. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could gain at least 3% over the next 22 trading days if not sooner. More information at LimitLessLifeSkills
AMEX:XLRELong
by StockSignaler