Tesla - This Is Actually Not Gambling!Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) still looks quite bullish:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Just a couple of weeks ago I published a bunch of analysis, explaining all the reasons for a potential -40% drop on Tesla. However on the higher timeframe, Tesla still looks quite strong and with the bullish break and retest playing out so far, we could even see new all time highs soon.
Levels to watch: $260, $400
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Tesla Motors (TSLA)
Tesla Finds Support, 657 Next Easy High & All-Time HighTesla is looking pretty good right now, support has been found. The correction amounted to -55.5%. It started in mid December 2024 and the first low was hit in March 2025.
Since March TSLA has been in the process of forming a bottom.
The action moved below 0.786 Fib. retracement level in relation to the last bullish wave. The action is back above this level now and this is pretty good. As long as the action happens above the magic blue dashed line, Tesla is good and set to grow.
This signal, perfect symmetry, is supported by rising volume.
Buy volume is rising massively as TSLA moves into a long-term support zone.
(Smart people, smart money and smart traders buy when prices are low —this volume signal reveals the highest buying in years as TSLA hits support.)
The most revealing fact from a logical standpoint is the size of the correction, a 55% correction is a lot by any standard. When a market goes through such a strong correction, it tends to reverse and produce next a new move. It moves in waves. It goes up and down, up and down. We are seeing the end of the down-move and this will automatically lead to an up-wave.
When the bottom was hit, last month, the action goes flat. Tesla was clearly moving lower but as support was found the bottom stays flat. This is another revealing signal for the logical mind. No longer a downtrend but a consolidation phase, which is part of a transition period.
» So the market was bullish and from bullish turned bearish, from bearish it went sideways and from sideways it will grow.
This is an easy buy.
Thanks a lot for your comment and continued support.
Namaste.
Tesla - The Next 7 Days Decide Everything!Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) is sitting at a crucial structure:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Despite the -60% correction which we have been seeing over the past couple of months, Tesla still continuously validates its overall uptrend. That's exactly the reason for my strong bullish thesis and the assumption, that after we see bullish confirmation, Tesla will reject the current support area.
Levels to watch: $250, $400
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Tesla Suspends Guidance: Why Its Forecasts Were Often WrongTesla Pulls the Plug on Guidance: Why Its Forecasts Weren't Worth Much Anyway
Tesla, the electric vehicle behemoth that has captivated and often confounded investors for over a decade, has made another move guaranteed to stir debate: it's suspending its forward-looking guidance. For many companies, withdrawing financial forecasts signals significant uncertainty or a major strategic shift, often sending shares tumbling. While Tesla's stock undoubtedly reacts to such news, a deeper look reveals a compelling argument: Tesla's official guidance, particularly in recent years, had become such a moving target, so frequently untethered from eventual reality, that its predictive value was already deeply questionable. Suspending it might simply be acknowledging the obvious.
For years, Tesla's earnings calls and investor communications were punctuated by ambitious, often audacious, targets set by CEO Elon Musk and the company. These weren't just vague aspirations; they were often specific numbers for vehicle deliveries, production ramps, timelines for new technologies like Full Self-Driving (FSD), and launch dates for anticipated models like the Cybertruck or the Semi. The market, enthralled by Tesla's disruptive potential and Musk's charismatic pronouncements, frequently hung on these words, baking them into valuation models and trading strategies.
However, the history of Tesla meeting these self-imposed targets is, charitably speaking, inconsistent. The guidance often veered into the quixotic, reflecting a potent blend of extreme optimism, engineering ambition, and perhaps a dash of Musk's famed "reality distortion field."
Consider the infamous "production hell" of the Model 3 ramp-up. Initial targets were wildly optimistic, projecting volumes that the company struggled immensely to achieve, facing bottlenecks in battery production and assembly line automation. While Tesla eventually overcame these hurdles, the timeline and cost deviated significantly from early guidance. Similarly, the promise of Full Self-Driving has been a perennial "next year" phenomenon. While the capabilities of Tesla's Autopilot and FSD Beta have advanced significantly, the arrival of true Level 4 or 5 autonomy, capable of operating without driver supervision under virtually all conditions – as often implied by the timelines suggested in guidance – remains elusive, years behind schedules hinted at in past forecasts.
The Cybertruck provides another stark example. Unveiled in 2019 with a projected start date that came and went multiple times, its eventual, limited launch in late 2023 was years behind schedule, and scaling its unique manufacturing process remains a challenge. Guidance around its ramp-up has been adjusted repeatedly.
This pattern isn't necessarily born from deliberate deception, but rather from a confluence of factors inherent to Tesla's DNA and the volatile industries it operates in:
1. Aggressive Goal Setting: Musk is known for setting incredibly ambitious "stretch goals" intended to motivate teams to achieve breakthroughs. While effective internally, translating these aspirational targets directly into public financial guidance is fraught with risk.
2. Underestimation of Complexity: Bringing revolutionary products to mass market – whether it's a new vehicle platform, a complex software suite like FSD, or novel battery technology – involves navigating unforeseen engineering, manufacturing, supply chain, and regulatory hurdles. Initial guidance often seemed to underestimate these complexities.
3. Market Volatility: The EV market itself is dynamic. Consumer demand shifts, government incentives change, raw material costs fluctuate, and competition intensifies – all factors that can derail even well-laid plans and render guidance obsolete.
4. The "Musk Factor": Elon Musk's public statements, sometimes made spontaneously on social media or during earnings calls, often became de facto guidance, even if not formally enshrined. His optimism could inflate expectations beyond what the operational side of the business could reliably deliver on a set schedule.
Given this history, why did the market continue to pay such close attention? Part of it was the sheer scale of Tesla's ambition and its undeniable success in revolutionizing the automotive industry. Investors betting on disruption were often willing to overlook missed targets, focusing instead on the long-term vision. Past stock performance also created a feedback loop; as the stock soared despite missed guidance, it reinforced the idea that the specific numbers mattered less than the overall trajectory and narrative. Guidance served as a signal of intent and ambition, even if the execution timeline slipped.
However, the context has shifted dramatically. Tesla is no longer the lone wolf in a nascent EV market. Competition is fierce, particularly from Chinese automakers like BYD, but also from legacy manufacturers finally hitting their stride with compelling EV offerings. Global EV demand growth, while still present, has slowed from its previously exponential pace. Tesla itself has engaged in significant price cuts globally to maintain volume, putting pressure on its once-stellar automotive margins.
In this more challenging environment, the luxury of consistently missing ambitious targets wears thin. The decision to suspend guidance now can be interpreted in several ways:
• Pragmatic Realism: Management may genuinely lack visibility into near-term demand, production capabilities (especially with new models or processes), or the impact of macroeconomic factors. Suspending guidance is arguably more responsible than issuing forecasts they have low confidence in.
• Strategic Pivot: Tesla is increasingly emphasizing its future potential in AI, robotics (Optimus), and autonomous ride-sharing (Robotaxi). These ventures have even longer and more uncertain development timelines than vehicle production. Focusing investor attention away from quarterly delivery numbers might be part of a strategy to reframe the company's narrative around these future bets.
• Avoiding Accountability: A more cynical take is that suspending guidance removes a key benchmark against which management's performance can be judged, particularly during a period of slowing growth and heightened competition.
Regardless of the primary motivation, the practical implication for investors is clear: the already thin reed of Tesla's official guidance is now gone entirely. This forces a greater reliance on analyzing tangible results – actual deliveries, reported margins, cash flow generation, progress on FSD adoption rates, and demonstrable advancements in new ventures – rather than promises of future performance.
The suspension underscores that investing in Tesla requires a strong belief in its long-term vision and its ability to execute on extremely complex technological and manufacturing challenges, often without a clear, company-provided roadmap for the immediate future. The focus must shift from parsing guidance to meticulously evaluating performance, competitive positioning, and the plausibility of its next-generation bets.
In conclusion, Tesla's decision to stop issuing formal guidance is less of a shockwave and more of a formal acknowledgment of a long-standing reality. Its forecasts were often more aspirational than operational, reflecting a culture of ambitious goal-setting within a highly volatile industry. While the absence of guidance introduces a new layer of uncertainty, savvy investors likely already applied a significant discount factor to Tesla's projections. The company's future success now hinges more transparently than ever not on what it promises for tomorrow, but on what it demonstrably delivers today. The quixotic forecasts may be gone, but the fundamental challenge of execution remains.
Tesla Stock: Neutral Bias Persists Following Earnings ReportTesla’s stock is currently hovering near the $250 level, after a bullish gap formed following the release of its latest earnings report. Initially, the company's results fell short of expectations: earnings per share came in at $0.27 versus the expected $0.39, and total revenue reached $19.3 billion versus $21.11 billion anticipated by the market. Despite this, the stock's initial reaction was a bullish gap, fueled by brief, fleeting optimism, but the session ultimately closed with a notable indecision candle, casting some doubt on whether a new short-term uptrend is truly beginning.
Bearish Channel Remains in Play:
Despite the recent upward jump in the latest session, buying momentum has so far failed to break through the upper boundary of the descending channel that has persisted since late December. For now, this bearish channel remains the most important formation to monitor, based on recent price behavior.
MACD:
The MACD histogram is currently oscillating close to the neutral zero line, indicating that the average strength of the recent moving average swings remains largely neutral. If this behavior continues, the market may lack a clear short-term trend.
ADX:
The ADX indicator is showing a similar setup. The line continues to hover around the 20 level, which typically signals indecision in the market. This reflects a neutral tone in the current price movement, suggesting that a lack of momentum is driving a series of directionless swings. Unless the ADX line starts to rise steadily, a neutral bias may continue to dominate the stock in the short term.
Key Levels:
$220 – Key Support: This level marks the lowest point in recent months. A break below this support could reactivate the bearish channel that has defined short-term price action.
$290 – Technical Barrier: Aligned with the 200-period simple moving average, a bullish breakout above this level could pose a serious threat to the current bearish trend channel.
$330 – Final Resistance: This level is aligned with the 100-period simple moving average. If the stock reaches this area, it could confirm a shift in market momentum and pave the way for a more sustained bullish trend on the chart.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
$PLTR Trade: Buy $90.86 , Target $101.35Beep Beep. Hope everyone is taking care of their trading accounts during this volatile phase in the markets. I noticed an identical setup on the weekly from back in August 24' and I'm looking to take advantage. We have a trend reversal on the Tom Demark sequential that helps identify trend exhaustion through a 9 Count. Currently on a 2 Count, we're testing the gap while simultaneously testing the 10WMA at 90.86.There is also a weekly gap at 101.35 ... Entry would be the 10WMA. Target the weekly Gap. Trade is as follows:
Trade Idea - Swing NASDAQ:PLTR $95 Calls 4/25
Entry - 10 WMA @ $90.86
Target - Gap on Weekly at $101.35
$TSLA back to $148-155 before correction is overDespite the bounce over the last few days, TSLA's price action is still bearish overall.
I think it's likely that we find resistance here or at $290, and then work our way back down to the lower support levels at $148-155.
I think once we get down to those levels, it'll be a good long term buy and we can see price go back to $700+.
Tesla: At a Crossroads – Accumulation or Breakdown?One of the most talked-about stocks right now — Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA . And for good reason. Between the constant media buzz around Elon Musk and the recent surge in vandalism against Tesla vehicles, it’s been getting plenty of attention. But I’m not here to talk politics or headlines — I’m here for the chart.
And honestly? It’s looking better than you’d think. Despite all the noise, price has held steady in the $225 to $270 range, showing signs of a sideways accumulation phase — right at the Point of Control (POC) since 2021. That’s a pretty strong area, technically speaking.
Over the next few weeks, we’re likely to get clarity:
Either we break above $350, which opens up serious upside potential,
Or we break down toward the Volume Area Low — specifically the 2024 VAL at $161.18.
The real danger zone? Below $138. If price breaks that level, we have to assume that Wave 2 isn’t done yet — even though it was originally considered complete in 2023.
Until then, the structure actually looks constructive: we’ve been putting in higher lows and higher highs since 2023, which signals a potential uptrend.
How far that uptrend goes is hard to call. But if we break and hold above $325, then a pullback toward $300–$270 could offer a clean entry opportunity.
On the flip side, yes — if the market collapses and Wave II is still unfolding, we could be staring at $175, $125, or even as low as $75–$50 in an extreme scenario. And that would be wild for a stock that once touched $485.
But that’s why it’s crucial to zoom out. Ask yourself:
What do I want from Tesla — long-term conviction or short-term plays?
Then build your view. If the macro fits, dial into the lower time frames to find your edge. The setup is building — and it’s looking like Tesla is prepping for a big move.
Question is: which direction are you positioned for?
TSLA, the king of all meme stocksYesterday, Q1 earnings call. Stock misses earnings by 30% on already reduced expectations of 0.38. Had it been earnings expectations from a week before (which was 0.434), it would've missed by around 45%.
Still, the stock manages to rebound from mid 220s up to 257 in a single day (around 10%). It's impressive, but still looms a ceiling just up ahead (258-260) which I think is the perfect opportunity to short. Will be invalid if it manages to push up above 267.6 which is the local resistance line and a major historic resistance also.
That said. I think the odds are good in shorting around 258-260. Expecting a fall towards low 200s and even towards high 170s.
Breaking: Tesla Up 6% In Premarket Albeit Q1 Profit Drops 71%Shares of Tesla (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:TSLA ) stock surged 6% in early premarket trading on Wednesday amidst missing expectation, Q1 profit drops 71%.
Tesla investors breathed a sigh of relief after CEO Elon Musk said he would refocus his attention on the electric automaker, but that promise did not entirely dispel worries that his right-wing shift had irrevocably damaged the company's image.
The automaker's shares (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:TSLA ), rose about 6.5% in premarket trading on Wednesday after Musk said he would cut back, opens new tab his work for U.S. President Donald Trump to a day or two per week from sometime next month after the automaker posted a 71% slump in net income and a sharp drop in automotive revenue.
Since hitting a record high in December, Shares of Tesla (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:TSLA ) have lost about half its value reducing its market capitalization by more than $500 billion, largely on concerns that brand damage could hurt sales for a second straight year.
Tesla said it will a review of its full-year delivery forecast amid shifting global trade policies in the second quarter earnings update, which is expected in July.
While Tesla is less likely to be affected by global tariffs than legacy automakers, it still expects an outsized impact on the fast-growing energy storage business that uses battery cells from China.
Technical Outlook
As of the time of writing, NASDAQ:TSLA shares are up 6.5% in premarket trading. The asset is undergoing a bullish reversal pattern after bouncing off from the critical support point of $218.
TSLA shares are aiming for a 118% surge should the asset break the key Fibonacci levels highlighted on the chart. With the last trading session's RSI at 46, NASDAQ:TSLA is well primed for a bullish campaign since consolidating late December, 2024 losing almost 56% of value, TSLA shares are looking to capitalize on that.
$SPX Urgent! My <3 & My Soul: Slow Bleed Crash to 3k by Q4 26' Do be warned. Very important post here. I put my heart and soul into this. I made a video earlier and then it got deleted by accident, so I made a less happy one right after. I've got news for all the bulls and investors out there that feel they will be able to continue buying every single dip out there. Get ready for the dip that keeps dipping. Big names already cracking heavy. NASDAQ:META NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:NVDA to name a few. Big tech is getting cleaned out and layoffs are on the rise. Tariffs create huge amounts of uncertainty. I don't feel like this is rocket science. Buffet is all cash. 89% of Hedge Fund managers believe the US market is the most expensive its ever been and Tutes have been selling at the highest rate ever before. I think it's time the US finally gets a shake down. Bullish conditioning has been running rampant, and I've seen Social Media Accounts discourage charting and only paying attention to price action? Price action involves the entire collective, not just one Timeframe. Anyways, here's an overlay from 01' ... the only one I could find that matches. Says short 560 around May 7th and then take profits around 500 again. Let's make this a nice one. Calls till 560 into May then flip to Puts into June. From then short 530 every time you can. $450 is My first target after we break previous lows. I will update as we go. Have a good one yall.
April 22st Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis** April 22st Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis**
EOD accountability report: +325
Sleep: 3 hour, Overall health: tired
**Daily Trade Signals based on VX Algo System**
— 9:00 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
10:20 AM VXAlgo NQ X1 Sell Signal
10:30 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal
10:51 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal
11:20 AMVXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (Triple signal) C+ set up
1:12 PM VXAlgo NQ X3 Sell Signal (Double X3 signal)
1:30 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
3:00 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
3:10 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (Triple signal) C+ set up
TSLA Tesla Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought TSLA before the recent rally:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of LMT Lockheed Martin Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 230usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2025-4-25,
for a premium of approximately $10.70.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
$TSLA will we see the breakdown?TSLA – Watching for Main Short Setup
📉 1H Chart Breakdown
Tesla is approaching a critical area. If the market starts to unwind, this could offer a main short opportunity.
Price is currently hovering above a key support zone (highlighted on chart). A confirmed break below this level could accelerate the downside.
🟣 First Target: ~$216
🔻 Main Target: $180 if momentum builds and support fails.
Indicators and EMAs suggest increasing bearish pressure. Keep an eye on volume and broader market sentiment to confirm entry.
Tesla Shares (TSLA) Drop Nearly 6% Ahead of Quarterly ReportTesla Shares (TSLA) Drop Nearly 6% Ahead of Quarterly Report
On Monday, Tesla’s share price fell by almost 6%, dipping below $230 and hovering near its yearly low. Since the beginning of 2025, Tesla shares have lost approximately 44% in value, marking their worst quarter since 2022.
Why Is TSLA Falling?
There is no shortage of investor concerns, including (as reported by various media outlets):
→ Elon Musk’s involvement with the Trump administration, which is said to be distracting him from focusing on Tesla, particularly as signs emerge of slowing progress in the development of robotaxis and autonomous driving technology.
→ A decline in demand — both for the Cybertruck model specifically and the product line in general — especially amid protests and boycotts across the US and Europe. Tesla previously reported 336,681 vehicle deliveries in Q1, down 13% compared to the same period last year.
→ Increased competition from Chinese carmakers, uncertainty around international trade tariffs, and other contributing factors.
According to The Wall Street Journal, analysts at Barclays and Oppenheimer have voiced concerns about “brand dilution” and weakness in China, while Dan Ives of Wedbush is hopeful for an “inspirational vision” from Elon Musk.
Technical Analysis of TSLA Stock
We previously noted the importance of the $220 support level, which prevented the price from falling further during the first half of April (as indicated by the arrow), at a time when broader stock indices showed much more bearish trends.
That level still appears relevant for now, but it’s likely that the upcoming quarterly earnings report will trigger a sharp increase in volatility. Should investors find the results underwhelming, TSLA’s share price could fall to the lower boundary of the current descending channel (highlighted in red), potentially breaching the psychological $200-per-share mark.
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$TSLA in penalty box. Stock remains range bound. After the new administration was elected in Nov 2024, AMEX:TSLY stock had a huge bull run since then. It doubled between Nov 2024 to Dec 2024. Since the stock has sold off heavily and has lost more than 50% of its value. It recently bounced back from the lows of 214 $ which was the 0.785 Fib Retracement level if we plot the Fib levels from its highs to the lows. And then it bounced back lower 254 $ which is the 0.618 Fib Level.
AMEX:TSLY is steadily trading within these 2 Fib levels and seems that it fails to break out of this pattern. The stock seems to build a base between 250 and 214 which can be a good place to accumulate the stock. With Elon distracted by DOGE affairs it seems we are missing any catalyst for this stock. So NASDAQ:TSLA fans can keep on accumulating here and wait for a breakout. But to all my NASDAQ:TSLA fans there are already breaks out in other large caps in progress. Look at $MSFT. More regarding NASDAQ:MSFT in the upcoming blogs
Verdict: NASDAQ:TSLA accumulate between 214 – 250 $ if you need to. Else look for other mega caps.
TSLA Drill Team is Back
Against the background of everything that is happening, from a fundamental point of view, Tesla is facing significant headwinds as we approach its Q1 2025 earnings.
A 13% year-over-year decline in deliveries, ongoing margin pressures from price cuts, and negative consumer sentiment tied to Elon Musk’s political involvement are weighing on the company.
While the energy segment and potential updates on the affordable vehicle could provide some upside, the risk of a disappointing earnings report looms large, potentially exacerbating Tesla’s challenges in a competitive EV market.
Technically
We see that the price is consolidating near the lower boundary of the golden pocket on the FIBO channel on the 1-hour chart. For a few days now, the price has been holding just above the 240.00 support level, but the bearish trend remains dominant with 23 out of 26 technical indicators signaling bearish sentiment as of April 20, 2025.
Entry SHORT around 240$ targeting 220$
Post-earnings, we could see a breakdown below 220.00, targeting the next support at 216.00, from which the future prospects will depend.
Resistance levels: 270, 250, 240
Support levels: 220, 216, 210
The price is struggling to break above the resistance, consolidating over days. With earnings on Tuesday, there’s a high probability of a breakdown if the report misses expectations or lacks clear guidance on growth initiatives.
A break and consolidation below 230.00 could lead to a decline toward 220.00 or even 210.00 in the coming week.
However, if Tesla surprises positively—particularly with strong energy segment growth or clarity on the affordable vehicle—we might see a reversal. Still, the current setup suggests caution, and we’ll need to monitor the price reaction closely post-earnings.
Keep your long term vision NASDAQ:TSLA