TESLA Buy the dip, correction nearly over. $285 next short-term.Tesla (TSLA) is bleeding hard today but that shouldn't if you got on that rally early like our June 13 (see chart below) buy signal suggested while the price was still trading in the low 180s:
Our long-term Target remains $400.00 and today's sharp correction is nothing but a strong technical buy opportunity. In fact, this pull-back is not stranger to Tesla. The stock has seen a similar rejection near the 2.0 Fibonacci extension during its May - July 2023 rally on the June 21 2023 High.
As you can see, the price declined by -13.00% back to the 1.382 Fibonacci level. At the time of the (temporary High), the 1D RSI was at 89.00, roughly where it got rejected today. The price recovered when the RSI was at 57.00.
As a result, from a R/R perspective, it is worth taking another buy on the current market price and target the 2.236 Fib extension (similar to the JUly 19 2023 High) at $285.00.
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Tesla Motors (TSLA)
Tesla : Approaching Key Resistance Level After Strong RallyBy analyzing #Tesla 's stock chart, we observe that after hitting the first bearish target last time, the price rose again. However, this time, the price did not drop from that level as we expected. Instead, it managed to rise powerfully to $260! Currently, Tesla is near a significant resistance level, and we need to wait for the initial reaction to this level. This analysis will be updated!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
TSLA | TESLA is OvervaluedTesla, Inc.'s second quarter earnings confirm our view that the stock is one of the most overvalued stocks in the market.
Tesla's stock has been rising this year amid a sudden shift in overall market sentiment, with many investors now pricing in a soft-landing scenario after a brutal past year of Federal Reserve rate hikes. But the shift in market sentiment doesn't change the fact that Tesla's stock fundamentals are completely disconnected from reality. Tesla is a terribly overvalued stock that we think is worth closer to $26 per share instead of its current price of about $290 per share.
While Tesla is profitable, its profits are nowhere near the levels needed to justify its current valuation. We recognize that Tesla's business generates an impressive return on invested capital (ROIC), which is a key measure of profitability, especially for an automaker. However, that ROIC is already declining in the trailing-twelve-month (TTM) period.
Using our reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) model, we find that for the stock to have any upside at current levels, Tesla must improve its ROIC to levels not achieved by even the most profitable businesses in the world . Figure 1 shows Tesla's historical ROIC along with the future ROIC implied by its current stock price. We provide the assumptions behind this DCF scenario later in this report.
Tesla's latest earnings continue to show that it is not immune to competitive challenges and will likely see lower profitability in the future. But, its valuation implies the opposite. Any investor with fiduciary duties should be aware of the growing disconnect between Tesla's current fundamentals and the future fundamentals implied by its stock price. Even in an optimistic future cash flow scenario, shares could trade as low as $26/share. All the details are below.
Supply Constrained Argument Is Gone: Bulls have long argued that demand for Tesla vehicles has always exceeded the supply of vehicles. However, Tesla's multiple price cuts in 2023, along with its lackluster production levels through the first half of 2023, raise questions about just how much demand there is for Tesla vehicles, especially amid competition from rivals Ford (F), General Motors (GM) and virtually every other automaker. Q2 2023 marks Tesla's fifth consecutive quarter in which vehicles produced were greater than vehicles delivered. Tesla is no longer selling every vehicle it can make. Should demand for EVs slow, Tesla could find itself with higher than wanted inventory levels, which could lead to further price cuts and additional pressure on already falling margins.
Continued Cash Burn: Despite Tesla's top line growth, it continues to burn massive amounts of cash. Over the past five years, Tesla has burned a cumulative $4.2 billion in free cash flow (FCF), including $3.6 billion over the trailing-twelve months (TTM) alone. Tesla has generated negative FCF in all but one year (2019) of its existence as a public company.
Margin Decline: Tesla's "GAAP gross margin" was 18.2% in 2Q23, down from 19.3% in 1Q23 and 25.0% in 2Q22. 2Q23's GAAP gross margin was below expectations of 18.7% and remains at its lowest level since 4Q20.
Tesla's operating margin is also moving the wrong direction as it scales up. After selling 211 thousand more vehicles in 2Q23 compared to 2Q22, Tesla's reported operating margin fell 493 basis points YoY in 2Q23. Tesla noted in its press release that reduced average selling prices were one of the items that impacted margins in the quarter. We would expect Tesla's margins to fall further as competition limits pricing power across the industry.
While Tesla has rapidly ramped up vehicle production and deliveries, its market share must increase almost exponentially to justify the expectations baked into its stock price. However, as it stands, Tesla holds a meager share of the global auto industry, and its share of the EV market ranks behind incumbents across Europe and China.
In Europe, based on sales from May 2023, Tesla holds a 12% share of the EV market, much lower than VW Group (20%) and Stellantis (STLA) at (14%).In China, also based on sales from May 2023, Tesla holds 9% of the EV market compared to a staggering 38% share for top competitor BYD.
Bulls have long argued that Tesla isn't just an automaker, but rather a technology company with multiple verticals such as insurance, solar power, housing, and, yes, robots. We've long refuted these bull dreams. Regardless of the promises of developing multiple business lines, Tesla's business remains concentrated in its auto segment. Auto revenue accounted for 86% of Tesla's TTM revenue as of 2Q23.Tesla can no longer enjoy its first mover advantage as many other major automakers are producing electric vehicles. These competitors have more experience in auto production and more resources and cash flow than Tesla to invest in the electric vehicle market.
Tesla is at risk of losing market share to its competitors in the electric vehicle space and its stock price is currently not reflecting that, which is a major risk for investors.
Since bottoming out at the beginning of the year, the stock has come up almost 200%, stopping just shy of $300.
One could say the recent selloff is due to the earnings, but technical analysis would have suggested that a selloff was due even before the earnings.
Firstly, we can see that a significant bearish divergence has been building in the RSI since June. Furthermore, we have been nearing an important area of trade as highlighted by the red rectangle. The $300 level has been a key area of trade, and you’d expect to see some resistance.
So if a pullback has begun where can we expect it to end?
As I see it, we have formed an initial ABC structure from the lows in wave 1 of a five-wave impulse. This means that wave ii could now take us down to the 61.8% retracement of this rally, which lands us at $198.
We can see that this is also a very important area of support, as shown by the Visible Range Volume Profile. And, of course, we have the 200 day Moving Average offering support around this level, too.
tsla → is it the end of correction?!hello guys...
I published before this analysis:
I believe the target of the short position was 127$!
but now the price made a three-drive pattern and showed us a manipulated area! I think if the price comes higher than 185$ it will mean the correction is done!
let's see what happens!
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Tesla gains approval for government vehicle procurement in ChinaTesla Inc. has received approval for its Model Y vehicles manufactured in Shanghai to be included in the new vehicle procurement batches for official use by government and public organisations in Jiangsu Province, China. This marked a significant development for Tesla, indicating strong support from the Chinese government. It comes after assurances that Tesla's data collection practices meet local requirements following a data centre establishment and plans to release Full Self-Driving software in the PRC this year.
The recent engagements between Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Chinese Premier Li Qiang also seem to have contributed to bolstering the company's position amid the ongoing US-China technology tensions. This new allowance for government agencies to purchase Tesla cars could boost Tesla's sales and presence in the Chinese market.
Technical analysis of Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA)
Analysing the potential trading opportunities based on Tesla's stock performance:
Timeframe : Daily (D1)
Current trend : the stock is currently in an uptrend, demonstrating strong growth potential
Resistance level : the last known resistance at 198.85 USD has been surpassed, and no new resistance has been established
Support level : 179.65 USD
Potential downtrend target : if a downtrend initiates, the downside target could be set at 160.00 USD
Short-term target : if the uptrend continues, the next short-term target could be around 310.00 USD upon rebounding from the resistance level
Medium-term target : with sustained positive momentum, the stock price might rise to approximately 345.00 USD
Investors should closely monitor Tesla's performance, especially after these new developments in China, as they could significantly impact the company's stock valuation and market strategy.
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Will Tesla Double in Price This Year, Obliterate Bill GatesIt's gone a week or so, since Elon Musk gave Bill Gates advance warning last Tuesday not to truffle with him again. The Microsoft cofounder faces annihilation if he makes any further attempt to bet against Tesla.
That’s because Musk believes he will have transformed the carmaker into an AI colossus worth a staggering $30 trillion as soon as Tesla completes its pivot from selling EVs first and foremost to operating a lucrative fleet of robo-taxis and humanoid robots.
“Once Tesla fully solves autonomy and has Optimus in volume production, anyone still holding a short position will be obliterated,” he posted to social media on Tuesday. “Even Gates.”
Indeed Tesla stocks recently jumped, erased all the 2024Y losses, to print new 6Mo highs. 52-weeks SMA has been passed through also, while Daily RSI(14) skyrocketed to 85+ area.
Tesla is Dressed To The Nines.
This English idiom meaning “The highest degree of perfection.” Literally, the idiom means “Dressed like a brand new man.”
Btw, in financial circles, this is how they speak about assets after a Super Combo rally of continuous growth in shares or indices , after nine consecutive growing bars in a row (daily, weekly, monthly time frames).
That’s exactly how many (nine) daily growth bars in a row were recorded on the eve of July 8, 2024 in Tesla shares.
In nowadays even Tesla printed not 9-day but even 10-day winning streak, with the stock soaring 44% over the period. Prior to the rebound, shares were down 27% year-to-date, but they're now back in positive territory for the year, up nearly 6%.
And it marked the second biggest combo rally in Tesla shares after May-June 2023, when the stock rose continuously for 13 (!) trading sessions in a row.
It is worth to note that last time, after reaching “The Super Combo” in Tesla shares, Up/Down price deviations over the next 12 months were approximately equal, approximately 30-35 percent in each direction.
Who knows, how many extra days will last this series right now, and where this soap opera ends.
It's clear Mr. Elon wants to zap investors stress fast.
Unbelievable Gold Trade Setup! Must-Watch Analysis & Secret RiskTechnical Analysis of Gold Spot (XAU/USD)
Chart Overview:
- Current Price: $2,364.525
- Time Frame: 1 hour
- Key Levels:
- Resistance Levels:
- TP 3: $2,391.040
- TP 2: $2,386.595
- TP 1: $2,379.694
- Support Levels:
- LQZ: $2,371.857
- LQZ: $2,356.635
- TP 1: $2,347.655
- TP 2: $2,339.090
Candlestick Patterns:
- Recent Uptrend: The chart shows a significant uptrend starting from July 2nd to July 4th.
- Price Consolidation: Following the uptrend, there was a period of consolidation with prices forming a triangle pattern.
- Downtrend and Recovery: A sharp downtrend occurred, followed by a recovery attempt which is now in another consolidation phase.
Key Observations:
1. Resistance at TP 1 ($2,379.694): The price faced resistance around the $2,379.694 level and has not been able to break through.
2. Support at LQZ ($2,356.635): This level has provided significant support and could be a potential entry point if the price tests this level again.
3. Current Position: The price is currently trading around $2,364.525, which is below the key resistance levels and above the support levels, indicating a range-bound movement.
Lecture on Using Proper Risk Management
Risk management is crucial for successful trading. Here are key principles to ensure proper risk management:
1. Determine Risk Tolerance: Understand your risk tolerance and set a percentage of your capital that you are willing to risk on each trade. Commonly, traders risk 1-2% of their capital per trade.
2. Set Stop Losses: Always use stop losses to limit potential losses. For the current XAU/USD scenario, a stop loss could be placed slightly below the LQZ support level at $2,356.635.
3. Position Sizing: Calculate your position size based on your risk tolerance and stop loss level. For instance, if you have $10,000 and are willing to risk 2% ($200), and your stop loss is $10 away from the entry price, your position size would be 20 units.
4. Risk-Reward Ratio: Aim for a favorable risk-reward ratio. A common target is a 1:3 ratio, meaning you aim to make three times the amount you risk.
5. Diversification: Avoid putting all your capital into a single trade or asset. Spread your investments across different assets to mitigate risk.
Conclusion
For an in-depth analysis, make sure to watch the rest of the stream where I cover:
- TSLA (Tesla)
- DXY (US Dollar Index)
- BTC (Bitcoin)
- US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average)
#XAU/USD #GOLD #TSLA #MARKETLESSON
Tesla TSLA Soars on Strong Q2 Deliveries
Tesla stock TSLA has surged remarkably by more than +10% near a six-month high Tuesday to close at $231.26, after reporting better-than-expected second-quarter delivery numbers.
Technically speaking, TSLA shows clear bulls' control, especially after confirming the breakout of the inverted H&S pattern and the downward medium-term trendline.
Targets: $256.00 - $276.00.
Tesla: BE CAREFUL We are currently at the 0.5 / golden ratio resistance levels, the recent spike was the market taking out late shorts. Notice that we are about to hit the last local high as well. I caution anyone to buy here as we may be running out of fuel. Looking at the ichimoku the general trend is also bearish at the moment. I would suggest anyone bullish to wait until this level is flipped, let price break through this resistance and ideally retest this level as support. Don't get sucked into the hype, the market is still generally bearish and inflation is still high. The market may have some relief but wait for confirmation
Tesla (TSLA): Expecting a Pullback Before the Next RiseIn our livestream a few days ago, we talked about the impressive rise in Tesla's stock. Since our last analysis on June 13th, the stock has jumped 38% in just 19 days. This was somewhat expected because there was a lot of negative sentiment towards Tesla, which often leads to a significant rise. Congratulations to everyone who believed in Tesla with us. Our position is currently profitable, and the stock looks very strong.
Current Situation:
The current situation shows that Tesla has risen 40 % in less than 25 days, even though there was a lot of negative sentiment. The stock is very strong right now, but a pullback is likely. We think the stock could go up to $256, finishing the sub-wave 3. After hitting this level, we expect a Wave 4 correction, which will give us a chance to make more entries.
Strategy:
We plan to enter between $217 and $200. We will set the stop-loss at about $198 to protect against a failed Wave 4 scenario. Our strategy involves expecting the Wave 4 correction to close follow-up gaps and retest important levels. Even though the performance is strong, we should be careful as this could still be a temporary rise before another drop (a dead cat bounce).
In conclusion, Tesla has shown impressive strength, but we expect a pullback before it goes up further. We are targeting the $256 level for the completion of Wave 3 and plan to enter more between $217 and $200, with a stop-loss at $198. We remain cautiously optimistic and will keep a close eye on the situation.
LIVE Technical Breakdown of GOLD/XAU/USD || TESLA || DXY/USDSummary of Technical Breakdown for GOLD/XAU/USD (as of July 8, 2024)
Overview:
Instrument: GOLD/XAU/USD
Chart Type: 1-hour timeframe
Key Technical Points:
Price Levels:
Current Price: 2,361.315
High: 2,362.045
Low: 2,359.935
Trend Analysis:
The chart displays a series of higher highs and higher lows, suggesting an uptrend in the short term. The price appears to be respecting a channel, with clear upper and lower boundaries.
Support and Resistance:
Resistance Levels:
2,450.370 (4HR LQZ)
2,387.683
Support Levels:
2,350.670
2,278.175 (LQZ 4HR)
Chart Patterns:
A flag pattern is visible, which typically indicates a continuation of the previous trend. The bottom of the flag is marked, suggesting potential support if the price retraces.
Several consolidation phases are visible, indicating periods where buyers and sellers are balanced before a breakout.
Recent Price Action:
The price recently tested the upper boundary of the channel and faced resistance around 2,387.683, causing a slight pullback.
The current support level at 2,350.670 is being tested, which could indicate a potential bounce back if the price holds this level.
Conclusion:
The technical analysis of GOLD/XAU/USD shows a generally bullish trend within a well-defined channel. Key support and resistance levels are identified, and the price is currently testing a significant support level. Monitoring these levels, along with typical indicators, can provide further insights into potential price movements.
DON'T SLEEP ON TSLA ON A THURSDAY or you might miss out on the runup to 191.
Potentially higher, but likely into next week.
154 is looking likely should we break under trend.
Basically per this chart, either tesla is ready to make a move to the upside, and it looks like a quick move pre earnings.
If TSLA drops today into that support zone, it can trigger a run up to 184, and then possible 191.
Hard to say exactly when or if it even hits 167.99, but at some point during a move like that, if it should occur, there will be time to grab some options and make a few decent trades. Depending on your style.
If you're just investing to hold long, you want to buy pretty much sub 169.
Lowest price I see atm is 109, but it might actually hold the levels at the 150 range.
Good luck!!
Tesla bears be excited >> (-20%?) Tesla, come on, you just paid Elon musk so much money. What is exactly worth +50% in a month? In addition to what you see technically from what I outlined, I think the entire market is due for a correction. Given tesla's beta relative to the market, I anticipate at least 20% retracement from 260 towards 210 maybe 230. Ill be updating this as it changes.
Pro Setups for Swing Trading Ahead of News: TSLANASDAQ:TSLA had a velocity run on the release of its production update for Q2. Velocity runs have gaps between candles which do not overlap. It is a run of enormous speculation to gambling mode and the professionals are taking advantage of it. Notice the pro trader setup candle patterns prior to the retail side getting the news.
TRADE BTC/TSLA Pair and Grow your bagsBeen working on something. trying to make swing trades and longer term holds more efficient by trading in a non correlated pair.
Such as BTC/TSLA
As I want to stay in the market I can move allocation to the horse with the best momentum. Over time this rolls into more shares of TSLA or More BTC when timed correctly.
I'm mainly using the yellow 21 EMA vs The Blue/Red Linear Regression Line and their position in relation to the 200 EMA.
Still dialing in and will track over next few months. I can almost churn the longterm with this method. but for now I'm just giving it some gas to cook with and see how it works for me.
Example today I purchased more TSLA since BTC's relation to TSLA is in a down swing as the 21 day (yellow) crossed down over the Linear regression line (blue/red) and now dipping below the 200 day ema.
today TSLA is up 2.19% and BTC is up .38%.
This combines both my TSLA holdings and BTC holdings into one big pool where I shift the bulk of the holdings to the Ticker with the best juice making profit on the margin between the 2 tickers while increasing total position size and still participate in capital appreciation.
TSLA FALLING WEDGE - EASY $250, $TSLAThe Falling Wedge is a bullish formation that starts with a wide top and narrows as prices decline. This movement creates a cone shape that slopes downwards as the reaction highs and lows come together. Unlike symmetrical triangles, which lack a clear slope and bias, falling wedges unmistakably slope downwards and exhibit a bullish bias.
-The buy signal has been received.
-Big Hands are buying NASDAQ:TSLA despite the bad earning= BOTTOM
-MODEL 2 (EV Euphoria), FSD (Subscription & Licensing Income), INDIA GIGA FACTORY (cheaper and easier Production), OPTIMUS/ENERGY (Future & Growth)
Buy now and hold until the EOY!
NASDAQ:TSLA
Tesla Rebounds From Multi Year Key SupportTesla's shares rose after the announcement of new models.
Tesla shares (TSLA) rose 12 percent in post market trading on Tuesday, tracking gains in the U.S. market after the electric vehicle maker promised new, more affordable models.
Tesla said on Tuesday it would introduce new models by early 2025 using its current platforms and production lines, while backing away from more ambitious plans to produce an all-new model expected to cost $25,000.
The rise in Tesla shares provided a much-needed boost after Tesla struggled for months with tough competition and declining sales.
In technical terms, Tesla shares are supported by a multi-year uptrend.
In addition, resistance trend line is also pointed out.
TESLA LOCALLY OVERBOUGHT|SHORT|
✅TESLA is approaching a supply level of 266$
So according to our strategy
We will be looking for the signs of the reversal in the trend
To jump onto the bearish bandwagon just on time to get the best
Risk reward ratio for us
SHORT🔥
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TSLA - UniverseMetta - Analysis#TSLA - UniverseMetta - Analysis
The price after the previous review fulfilled local goals. Now you can observe a breakout of the global trend line with possible consolidation behind the line, which may suggest the beginning of a 3-wave structure; you can try to continue holding or gaining Long positions. the most likely option is a correction after a strong impulse, where you can buy at the best price. If a retest of the border occurs, it will be possible to safely hold it up to levels 300 -460.
Target 300 - 380 - 460