Tesla - Confirmed BreakdownHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Tesla.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
For more than three years, Tesla stock has been trading in a bullish flag formation. Two months ago Tesla once again retested the upper resistance trendline and failed to break out towards the upside. There are two major support levels below current market price which I do expect Tesla to retest. Then you can absolutely consider long setups again on Tesla stock.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
Tesla Motors (TSLA)
Worldwide misunderstanding for Polestar 😄Trading at 87.5% below our estimate of its fair value
Revenue is forecast to grow 35.64% per year
Trading at good value compared to peers and industry
Risk:
Negative shareholders equity
Has less than 1 year of cash runway
Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years
Volatile share price over the past 3 months
Polestar has tried everything. Collaboration with Renault to "sublet" production plants (future plant in South Korea). Breakaway from Volvo. Lower prices for Polestar 3 and 4 cars. But nothing worked. The stock continues to sleep, brain-dead.
The shorts keep piling up, day after day after day...
As a huge investor in this stock, I myself look away. I start buying a China ETF, Porsche, European stocks like Nestlé or Swatch or Zalando or Kering... no one in my entourage can hear about Polestar anymore haha
TSLA Bearish outlookTsla looks bound to hit the next bottom support which is 163
RSI is not even oversold yet so there is a chance that it can go below 163 and next stop would be 150-152 range
150 is the channel bottom as well . so we might have a chance of a bounce back technically.
If it goes below 150 and a trading day closes below 150 then we are going to 100-105 range which is the ultimate rock bottom for TSLA
Tesla Faces Headwinds: Analysts Downgraded TSLA StockTesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ), the electric vehicle (EV) pioneer, finds itself at a crossroads as analysts' sentiments diverge on the company's prospects. Recent downgrades and contrasting opinions reflect uncertainty surrounding Tesla's ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) delivery expectations, pricing strategy, and the viability of its next-generation vehicles. Let's delve into the nuanced landscape of Tesla's stock analysis and the divergent views shaping its trajectory.
Downgrades and Concerns:
Wells Fargo's downgrade of Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) to underweight, with a reduced price target, highlights concerns over disappointing first-quarter deliveries and ongoing price cuts. The firm's skepticism extends to Tesla's next-generation offering, particularly the economics of the anticipated Model 2. Everscore's projection of delayed ramp-up for Tesla's cheaper vehicle further compounds apprehensions, indicating potential challenges ahead.
Optimism Amidst Uncertainty:
Despite the prevailing skepticism, Wedbush Securities' analyst Dan Ives maintains an outperform rating for Tesla, albeit with reduced Q1 delivery expectations. Ives remains bullish on Tesla's long-term prospects, emphasizing a positive outlook for deliveries throughout the year. His optimism stems from observations during a recent trip to Asia, suggesting a slowdown in price cuts and potential stabilization in demand, benefiting Tesla and the broader EV industry.
Contrasting Views on Earnings and Performance:
Analyst consensus for Tesla's 2024 earnings paints a mixed picture, with projections below 2023 levels, indicating another year of negative growth. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas echoes concerns, lowering earnings projections and envisioning potential losses for Tesla in 2024. Despite trimming his price target, Jonas maintains an overweight rating, underscoring the complexity of Tesla's performance outlook amidst evolving market dynamics.
Market Response and Outlook:
Tesla's ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) stock performance reflects investor uncertainty, with recent declines and contrasting analyst opinions shaping market sentiment. As Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) navigates through delivery challenges, pricing adjustments, and the development of next-generation vehicles, stakeholders remain vigilant for signs of sustained growth and profitability. With Tesla's position in the EV landscape evolving, market watchers await clarity on its strategic direction and execution in the coming quarters.
TSLA - Are you Ready for the Ride?🚘Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 TSLA has been overall bearish , trading within the falling channel in blue.
However, TSLA is currently approaching the lower bound of the channel acting as a non-horizontal support.
Moreover , it is retesting a strong demand zone at 150 - 165 marked in green.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green demand and lower blue trendline.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #TSLA is around the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
TSLA bearish outlookIf you follow me then you know that we played the GAP fill on NASDAQ:TSLA with success and now we look to change our view and go bearish. Some have sized this up as a Bear Flag but i see a rising wedge formation that has broken down and we look to short $TSLA. I have given it room to move with such a massive move down but we should see continued weakness and a break of the recent bottom.
TESLA: Long Trade Explained
TESLA
- Classic bullish setup
- Our team expects bullish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Long TESLA
Entry Point - 175.34
Stop Loss - 168.70
Take Profit - 191.02
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
NIO Long on Disappointing EarningsNIO's disappointing earnings were not a surprise. Given the context of China's recession, NIO
did better than many expected. TSLA is down as well. NIO is doing as well as most of its peers.
On the 120 minute chart, NIO is down 60% from the end of the year highs. The RSI indicator
confirms that NIO is in oversold undervalued territory. NIO is at the bottom of the high volume
area of the profile and has been trending down with the first lower VWAP line as resistance.
I see NIO as likely to trend up as the China economy improves and for that to be reflected
in the next earnings report. NIO's innovative battery swapping program where the car owner
buys a car without a battery and is able to swap out an energy depleted battery for a freshly
charged one in 3 minutes at any of the NIO owned battery stations as a way for NIO
to excel no matter competition from the others in China including TSLA. NIO is now selling
cars in Scandinavia which should serve as steeping stone to further expansion in Europe.
TSLA to NIO market cap comparisonOn a down market day I decided to look at the comparision of market cap between TSLA and NIO by a share price ratio basis. On the daily chart, albeit with fluctuations, TSLA is continuously gaining market cap compared with NIO. This ratio allows for a tool to help decide whether to buy TSLA or NIO.
In short, TSLA is a buy at the low pivots of the ratio, while NIO is the buy at the high pivots which is right now.
Conversely, TSLA is a sell or short at the high pivots while NIO is a sell at the low pivots.
The trade right now is sell TSLA to decrease the position and use the proceeds to buy
NIO either in bulk or in increments to average in.
TESLA What Next? BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for TESLA below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 175.34
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 195.09
Safe Stop Loss - 165.33
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TESLA: Bottomed and has huge upside potential.Tesla got almost oversold technically on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 36.047, MACD = -6.760, ADX = 34.229) as it made a new 10 month Low trading under both the 1D MA50 and MA200. The 1D CCI though is reversing, being traded inside a Channel Down. The previous two times this pattern emerged, Tesla formed a bottom. In November-December 2023 , the price rallied by +35.91% and in May-July 2023, by +97.38%. This gives us a buy opportunity with a huge upside potential, a short term target (TP = 235.50) and long term (TP = 340.00).
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More Pain for TSLA - $165 or LowerI get a lot of questions about TSLA, and I can tell that many of you are eager to buy this TSLA dip. However, I'm seeing a lot of bearish signs for TSLA and I don't think there will be a buy opportunity any time soon. The green support level has flipped into resistance, and TSLA is forming a strong move down this week. I have $164.76 as a key price target for a rebound. I think TSLA and the EV market are weak right now, we can see lower prices over the next few months.
TSLA's triangle just broke—can it reclaim or will it slide?NASDAQ:TSLA reported quarterly earnings after hours. The initial reaction has been negative but that can sometimes change during the volatility that continues during the conference call and later the next few days.
This post will not delve into the fundamentals as a some prior posts have done. After all, markets are presumably efficient and discount all new information very rapidly, and surely algorithimic programs have already processed the report and its ramifications for the future. So the following charts will look at technical analysis alone.
From a technical perspective, TSLA had been in a large triangle that appears to be breaking over the last couple of weeks. This is true on both logarithmically scaled charts and linear / arithmetic charts. The log-scaled chart shows a somewhat bigger break so far than the linear scaled chart.
Supplementary Chart A shows a logarithmically scaled chart of this triangle.
Supplementary Chart A (Log)
Supplementary Chart B (Linear)
TSLA has been in an uptrend since its bear-market lows in early January 2023. But as prior posts have discussed, the next larger degree of trend is surely sideways, going back to the all-time highs. A simple box drawn around price on a monthly or weekly chart since even somewhat before the all-time highs shows this sideways range.
Next, consider that since the all-time high was reached, TSLA retraced to its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and failed on its first attempt at cracking that level as shown in the next chart.
Supplementary Chart C (61.8% Fibonacci retracement)
Furthermore, TSLA has struggled mightily at its all-time high anchored VWAP. At least six major breakout attempts above this VWAP have failed since TSLA formed its all-time high. See Supplemental Chart D below, showing the all-time-high VWAP in magenta. So have the failures to succeed in a break above this VWAP exhausted themselves so that next one or two will surely succeed as the bulls might want to argue? Or have the failures only reinforced the bears' case? Until price can recover this $234 area, it's tough to be bullish on TSLA.
Supplementary Chart D
More recent anchored VWAPs also make the bull case difficult to see for the time being. These are shown in the next supplementary chart. The key levels from these VWAPs are $241.72 and $214.62.
Supplementary Chart E (Other Major VWAPs)
And price hasn't been able to poke a head above the YTD anchored VWAP either the last 3 weeks as shown in Supplementary Chart F.
Supplementary Chart F (YTD VWAP)
Finally, consider that the major 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the current uptrend from January 2023 lies at $177.25. This is an all-important support level for bulls who think TSLA is merely consolidating its uptrend from January 2023 lows.
Supplementary Chart G (Another 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the January 2023 lows to July 2023 highs)
These technicals don't present a trade idea or attempt to reinforce a bear or bull case for anyone who is so positioned. But it does attempt to read the technical landscape as it now stands, without any sort of bullish or bearish bias from fundamentals or macro environment. The overall case isn't bullish until key levels can be recovered. Until then, lows might be tested if price can't quickly find its way back into the consolidative safety of the triangle shown.
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Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.