$TSLA Tesla Parallel Down Trend Continues In a technical analysis focused on Tesla's parallel downtrend below the 50-day moving average (MA), we're examining the stock's price movement concerning its short-term moving average. The 50-day MA is often used to gauge the intermediate-term trend.
If Tesla is in a parallel downtrend below the 50-day MA, it suggests that the stock's recent price movements are consistently lower than this moving average. Traders and investors may interpret this as a bearish signal, indicating potential weakness in the short-term trend.
Key points to consider:
1. **Price Movement Below 50-Day MA:** Tesla's stock prices are consistently trading below the 50-day MA.
2. **Lower Highs and Lower Lows:** Within this downtrend, you'd likely observe a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, indicating a downward trajectory.
3. **Support and Resistance Levels:** The 50-day MA could act as a dynamic resistance level, with the stock struggling to move above it. Meanwhile, parallel trendlines may define the channel within which the downtrend is occurring.
4. **Volume Analysis:** It's crucial to assess trading volume accompanying the downtrend. An increase in volume during declines could signal stronger selling pressure.
As always, remember that technical analysis is just one tool, and it's essential to consider other factors and perform a comprehensive analysis before making any trading decisions. If you have specific data points or a particular time frame you'd like me to focus on, feel free to provide more details.
Tesla Motors (TSLA)
$TSLA Bullish Weekly Open Could Turn Into a Dead Cat BounceTSLA opened green despite the bearish news and sentiment over the weekend. We have not reached the green support level yet, I think there could be more downside this week. A bounce above support would be bullish, I'm still monitoring for this rebound to turn into a dead cat bounce before a move lower down to ~ $170 over the next few months.
Lucid Motors Liquidity GapIt would appear that LUCID GROUP is facing a sell off based on bad new, dilution of shares, lack of consumer demand. However, based on technical, it would appear to be a very aggressive sell-off it was a sell-off. Not beneficial to not allow for market to recover in regards to liquidity. Based on the aggressive downside moves, the probability of a cat bounce appears very high and I am honestly amazed at the open interest on puts that could look to be burnt.
3$ options expiring this week are trading at $.08 a contract at the moment and if there is any level of volatility to the bull side, the out of the money 3$ strike will flip into the money and dominoing into an extreme level of gamma exposure on the short side.
People shorting need to close their position at some point, like also contributing to the large put open interest which could be contracts shorted with shorted equity.
Tesla: It's time to turn around🔄Tesla has fallen sharply in recent days and has now reached more or less the levels at which we expect the low of the blue wave (ii). Accordingly, our primary expectation is that the price will soon reverse and continue to rise - we expect it to rise above the $258.74 mark. Only the 35% probable alternative would shift this reversal into the future. This scenario comes into effect on a drop below $193.81 and still sees the price in the magenta wave alt. (ii).
$TSLA's $207.50 Price Target for a BounceIt's not looking too good for NASDAQ:TSLA holders right now. TSLA has 6 rejections off the yellow resistance line and has been dropping rapidly after the most recent rejection. The green trendline ($207.50) is a key support level on the way down, and there is likely to be a dead cat bounce there before further decline. For now, $207.50 is my short term price target for a bounce. I think NASDAQ:TSLA would be a bit oversold, so there is some potential for a long trade setup. However, TSLA is likely to underperform with its upcoming Jan. 24 earnings report. The forecast is higher than the previous forecast, which TSLA missed. I think there will be more pain ahead after a bounce off the green support line with some more downside in 2024.
TSLA Bullish Volume DetectedTSLA on a 15 minute chart is showing bullish volume trend as detected by the Unusual Market Volume Detector indicator.
Green color showed up after consistent Red for the last week or so. The bullish Price Action is consistent with the bullish volume trend. Watch out for any Divergence i.e. Purple color in the lower panel. More importantly what color shows up after the divergence will be the key.
TESLA Set To Grow! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for TESLA below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 218.79
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 240.72
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TSLA Caught in Vortex of Conflicting TechnicalsPrimary Chart : TSLA's 2D Price Chart with .618 Fibonacci Retracement of Decline from All-Time High to Jan. 2023 Low and Various Degrees of Trend Represented by Conflicting Channels
SUMMARY:
1. TSLA's technicals are unclear and conflicting. The trend from the 2021 all-time high remains downward until broken. The trend from the January 2023 low remains upward but somewhat choppy and unstable. The trend from the July 2023 high remains choppy and downward until broken.
2. Institutional buying into year end may be supportive of prices, allowing short-term traders to buy dips to well-defined support / risk levels into early January 2024. Until more structural change occurs providing more clarity, it's difficult to have confidence in any trend other than the shortest ones.
3. Once the next multi-month trend move occurs, some may look back and say that its was obvious and inevitable, offering post hoc arguments based on data that can be manipulated to support opposite outcomes. But today, unambiguous data pointing to a clear directional outcome is lacking (especially on intermediate and longer-term time frames).
4. Severely inverted yield curves suggest pressure on the economy and equity markets in the coming year or two. But as the lessons of the dot-com crash have taught us, markets can rally violently into their own recessionary demise.
The downward channel from the July 18, 2023, swing high has been the only pattern working lately. The last decline in late October 2023 was bought, and this dip fell to support at the downward sloping parallel channel. Bulls may see this as a bull flag, and it might be, but a breakout above the downward-sloping trendline from TSLA's all-time high stands in the way of a potential flag-breakout. Further, bears may reasonably see the channel from January 2023 as a bear flag within the larger downtrend from 2021. These conflicting technicals are worth watching over the coming weeks and months for resolution.
Supplementary Chart A
If one zooms out on TSLA's chart and looks at the past two years of price action, price action has largely been sideways in a trading range. This is despite the vicious decline starting November 2021 and lasting for over a year as well as the violent rallies and choppy uptrend in 2023. This sideways range seems to contain both the bear and bull markets of 2021-2023. Trading ranges are also known as chop, which is why trends on all time frames have likely been less predictable, disappointing many traders and investors during this time unless they have major equity cushions from many years ago or trade only the shorter time frames.
Supplementary Chart B
Because the larger degree trends over a two-year to three-year period has been primarily sideways, the trends within it have been less reliable and more likely to chop up TSLA investors.
Anchored VWAPs shown below also confirm this analysis of choppy, sideways action that is less predictable overall. Over the past year, notice all the failed breakouts above and below the key VWAPs anchored to major turning points. There are many.
Supplementary Chart C
Supplementary Chart D
Supplementary Chart D shows how the moving averages also are tangled, messy and sideways, presenting conflicting signals.
In conclusion, TSLA's technical charts remain conflicted and unclear. Many disciplined traders or investors with a short-term to intermediate-term time frame may wish to define risk clearly and keep losses small or else stay away. The Primary Chart reveals just how challenging TSLA's price action is for trend traders and investors. A downtrend from TSLA's all-time high remains unbroken as the downward sloping parallel channel shows. An uptrend from TSLA's January 2023 low also remains relatively stable despite the volatility seen this year. And a 4-month downtrend channel has been in play since July 2023. Any one of these technical trendlines could break one way or the other, but as of Thanksgiving, none have been broken and these data points remain unavailable for market participants wanting long or short exposure to TSLA.
What should traders and investors do? Some may vent the useless nature of a post that says a stock can go up, down or sideways on intermediate to long-term time frames. Others may see that TSLA doesn't have a clear directional play except on the shortest time frames, which is based on the currently available data. So perhaps wait patiently for more data and simply do nothing—the hardest thing for fidgety trader and DIY investor types, right? Those sitting on a large equity cushion may wish to tighten stops a bit to $200 (assuming their entries are much lower). Those with no position may want to just wait for more clarity.
Short-term traders who believe institutional flows into year end will buoy markets broadly and lead to higher prices into year end (and first week of January 2024) may wish to keep an eye on critical support at $200-$220 evidenced by the green VWAP anchored to October 2023 lows as shown on the Primary Chart. If this author were to have a bias, it would lean in this direction into year end and early January 2024, but it's a weak bias that can't be strongly held.
Such a thesis, like any other trading viewpoint, isn't guaranteed at all even though it may have a reasonable probability of being correct. This is why a stop (risk level) is needed. Upside targets in such a scenario would require a decisive move above the .618 Fibonacci retracement level and for that level to hold first. It's possible that the move off October 2023 lows could be consolidated first, where bullish TSLA traders may watch $200-$220 support levels. If a dip were to create a better entry for traders into year end, then upside targets might be considered as follows:
Conservative: $250-$255
Aggressive: $275-$280
Extremely Aggressive: $300-$310
As always, risk should be well managed so that the reward / risk ratio remains higher and the losses kept small. And keep in mind that TSLA-related news catalysts, including the ones from this past week, may have a tendency to yank price around and create formidable volatility.
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Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
TSLA: Neutral to Slightly Bullish Next Two WeeksHappy New Year everyone! This short video explains the technical view for TSLA as we start 2024. From a technical standpoint alone, its difficult to be wildly bullish or bearish right now. There may be other fundamental or macro reasons to take a more bullish or bearish view in the intermediate to long term. In short, neutral to slightly bullish makes sense over the next couple weeks for this stock.
Best of luck!
________________________________________
Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Tesla bear planCongrats if you were short Tesla before today!
Not to kill the vibe or anything, but I see a gap that may want to close before Tesla falls further. I think the downgrade issued today was justified. I like $180 - $160. If the gap doesn't close then we could see these prices in the very near term.
These moves in Tesla always happen fast, if you weren't already short Tesla before today, wait to see if it comes back and closes the gap before getting into a position. There will be dip buyers and 3 standard deviation moves on any given day are common for this stock, but the stock should still find its way lower.
TESLA: Bullish Continuation is Highly Probable! Here is Why:
Our strategy, polished by years of trial and error has helped us identify what seems to be a great trading opportunity and we are here to share it with you as the time is ripe for us to buy TESLA.
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AMD?interesting chart. i have the AVWAP at the 52 week low showing confluence with the support trend line. after earnings and fed speak we broke out the channel. were coming close to geting above the 0.68 fib retrace from last high 132/133ish area.
were also tradin above the 200-100-50 moving averages
that can also be a giant bull flag and cup and handle and all those measured moves take you to key areas. idk if it gets there or when. but just a text book looking chart right now.
$TSLA #Tesla, just dump it...The TSLA chart indicates a notable presence of lower gaps that are yet to be filled. These lower gaps signify potential areas where the stock might experience downward movements to reach previous price levels. The current situation suggests that if the support levels represented by rectangles do not hold, there is a higher likelihood of rapid downward penetration.
Investors and traders should closely monitor these support levels as they play a crucial role in determining the stock's future trajectory.
TESLA Breaking below the 1W MA50 again but NOT a BUY yet.Three weeks ago we mentioned the importance of the All Time High (ATH) Lower Highs trend-line on Tesla (TSLA) and how critical it would be for the price to finally break above it for the first time in more than 2 years:
The 'Do or die moment' as we called it failed to deliver and the price got emphatically rejected on the Lower Highs for the 5th time. This rejection has brought the price below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) yet again on pre-market. The natural zone of Support now is the January 06 2023 Higher Lows trend-line (Cycle bottom) and the April 27 2023 Higher Lows (dashed) trend-line. As long as it holds, we expect a short-term bounce and another test of the ATH Lower Highs trend-line.
If the stock breaks above the ATH Lower Highs, we will buy for a long-term rally and target 345.00. If the price breaks below the (dashed) April 27 2023 Higher Lows, we can expect a bottom as low as even 180.00, which is the Lower Lows (bottom) trend-line) of the Channel Down that started on the July 19 2023 High. If the 1D RSI though breaks first the 30.00 oversold barrier, we will take the profit on shorts and turn into a long-term buy (Target at $345.00 again) as every time the RSI turned oversold at 30.00, since December 2022, it was the most efficient buy opportunity we could get.
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TSLA SHORT with leverage TSDD ETFThis 1.5X leveraged ETF inverses the price action of TSLA with some amplification.
From the continuance of inflation, to Hertz liquidating 20,000 EVs ( prominent among them is
TSLA) in favor of return to ICEs to the rise of BYD in China and the ever present Musk in the
news like firing Space X employees without due process, TSLA is challenged and analysts
are calling for lower projected stock price. This is a way short TSLA at a lower price and risk.
The 2H chart shows a bullish HA candle today as price crossed over the longer trend following
moving average. Likewise, the RSI lines crossed over the 50 level rising from lows to end 2023.
This is an inexpensive stock without an options chain that has 60% near term potential should
it rise to its early November high at $28 A 0.5 Fib retrace of its down trend from that high in
November would bring price to $22. I will target $22 for 75% of the position and make the 25%
run for the $28 target while a stop loss of $.50 will allow for a normal range while rising to
the targets. I will raise the stop loss to break even after price rises by 0.55 and set a trailing
stop of $.50 once price rises by $0.75. I expect the trade to be in profit early and then
continuously increasing after that with a good backstop. TSLA's quarterly report comes out
on January 24th; this catalyst could accelerate profit if the report is less than expected by
investors and analysts. On the other hand, a fairly tight stop loss of about 3% will protect
the trade against a good earnings/revenue report whicch would surprise many.
loss of