Tesla Motors (TSLA)
Tesla Loses Half-Trillion Dollar Shine: Bulls Feeling the SqueezTesla, the electric vehicle (EV) pioneer, has hit a rough patch in 2024. This week, the company's market valuation slipped below $500 billion, marking a significant blow to investors who had placed big bets on Tesla's continued growth.
Several factors seem to be contributing to Tesla's woes. Firstly, concerns are mounting about the company's ability to maintain its breakneck growth trajectory. Recent reports indicate weaker-than-expected sales figures, leading some analysts to question whether Tesla can meet its ambitious production targets. Adding fuel to the fire, Tesla announced a round of job cuts this week, further amplifying anxieties about slowing growth. is decline coincides with a broader slump in the company's stock price, which has shed a staggering 37% so far this year.
Secondly, a recent exodus of high-ranking executives has rattled investor confidence. Several key figures have departed Tesla in recent months, leaving a void in leadership This instability at the top management level has cast a shadow over the company's future direction.
These developments have significantly dampened the enthusiasm of investors who had previously been bullish on Tesla. The company's stock has become one of the worst performers on the prestigious S&P 500 Index in 2024, erasing a colossal $290 billion in shareholder wealth. This decline marks a stark turnaround from the meteoric rise Tesla experienced in previous years, when its stock price soared on the promise of a revolutionary electric vehicle future.
However, some analysts remain optimistic about Tesla's long-term prospects. They point to the company's continued innovation in battery technology and its lead in the EV market as reasons for hope. They argue that the recent stock price slump presents a buying opportunity for those with a long-term investment horizon.
"Tesla has been through disasters before," said one analyst, "We maintain our outperform rating on the stock." This sentiment is echoed by others who believe that Tesla's core strengths remain unmatched and that the current challenges are merely temporary hurdles.
Only time will tell whether Tesla can weather this storm and reclaim its former glory. The coming months will be crucial as the company strives to address concerns about slowing growth, leadership changes, and a softening market. Tesla's ability to reignite investor confidence and reignite sales growth will determine whether the bulls can once again take the reins.
TSLA potential buy setupReasons for bullish bias:
- Price bounced from support
- Price-tested channel support
- Strong bullish divergence
Here are the recommended trading levels:
Entry Level(CMP): 173.80
Stop Loss Level: 155.80
Take Profit Level 1: 191.8
Take Profit Level 2: 209.8
Take Profit Level 3: Open
Trader Thoughts – defence the play of the day The markets have come alive with the sound of derisking, deleveraging, hedging and broad managing of risk exposures. Friday was about managing risk going into the weekend, but today was different and the move could have legs - where for many playing defence has been the order of the day, while we have also seen traders getting aggressive, with shorting activity in equity picking up, notably in Tesla.
On a cross-asset basis, there has been migration to buy equity volatility (the VIX sits at 19.2%), while there has been a further move into the USD, CHF, and gold, although the flight to quality was not broad-based with US 10-year Treasuries +10bp.
While US bond yields were already moving higher into the US retail sales report (+0.7% vs 0.4% eyed), the stronger outcome of the data set off a further sell-off in US Treasuries, with US 10-year yields pushing into 4.66%. The equity market was initially fine with the rise in yields, but as headlines rolled in that Israel had vowed a new response the sellers gained full control – it was when S&P500 futures traded through Friday’s low (5150) and then the 50-day MA (5142) that the floors lit up with more indiscriminate selling in equity.
The moves were then compounded by a rush to hedge risk, with funds buying volatility, where noticeable we saw the VIX index trade through 18% and into 19.46%. On the day 1.31m VIX call options traded vs 573k puts, so traders have been positioning for higher volatility and hedging portfolios accordingly. It’s no surprise that we’ve seen a sizeable 149k VIX futures traded, again well above average – higher market volatility leads to a whole range of selling activity from systematic players, and pension funds who target levels of volatility to determine their equity allocation. In these uncertain times high volatility begets higher volatility.
We’ve been left with the S&P500 tracking its highest high-low trading range since March 2023 (119 points), with price closing near the lows of the day. Plenty for the day traders to work with, and this sort of price action, with the various indices seeing a strong high-to-low trend day, will not have gone unnoticed, and to many, these are ideal trading conditions.
Momentum monitor – markets on the move
We see higher FX volatility playing through, with the USD ripping vs all currencies. There has been a solid unwind of carry positions, with the higher-yielding plays – BRL, COP, CLP, and ZAR – all seeing big percentage changes. The USD is king, and while overbought it is not at a stage where mean reversion players are just yet seeing a higher probability of a snapback. There are too many tailwinds for the greenback right now – haven appeal, momentum, relative interest rate settings and relative economic data trends. Pullbacks, it seems, will be shallow and well-supported.
Gold has been the classic geopolitical hedge, although we could have seen an even more pronounced move and a possible upside break of $2400 if crude (+0.2%) had participated. The fact that XAUUSD rallied 1.7% despite the move in the USD, and the 5bp rise in US 10YR real rates cements gold as perhaps the primary portfolio hedge given unfolding news flow. Conversely, there is a risk that gold could find a solid sell-down should Israel refrain from escalating, but for many the headlines suggest an increase in conflict is more likely than not and gold can offer defense in the portfolio.
Asia faces another tough day at the office, with the JPN225 called -1.4%, HK50 cash -1.2% and the ASX200 -0.7%. There is certainly not much in the news flow to inspire risk-taking and there is a growing list of factors to refrain from buying and to manage exposures, which of course, can see the buy side of the order book dry up, which means we get more exaggerated price moves.
China gets focus, not just because it performed admirably yesterday and we watch to see if the index can outperform, but also, we get Q1 GDP (consensus +4.8%), industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment.
TESLA lays off more than 10% staff. Is this its 'META moment'?It was reported this morning that Tesla (TSLA) "will lay off more than 10% of its global workforce, an internal memo seen by Reuters on Monday shows, as it grapples with falling sales and an intensifying price war for electric vehicles".
The market has so far reacted with strong selling of more than -3% in early trading. But is this really bad news?
Not so long ago (November 09 2022), another high tech giant that was heavily decimated at the time, Meta Platforms (META), announced lay offs of around 13% of the company (more than 11000 employees). This was just 5 days after the November 04 2022 market bottom. The result (chart on the right) was an aggressive recovery above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which turned into a Support for 240 days straight.
Of course the fundamental difference is that the 2022 Low for Meta was the Bear Cycle bottom of the Inflation Crisis while Tesla's Channel Down has been the picture of its underperformance for almost a year relative to the rest of the market (and the Magnificent 7 in particular).
However it shouldn't be overlooked that such cost driven news are fundamentals capable of turning the profitability of a company around and Meta's case is such a representative example. Meta was massively oversold in November 2022 (-75% from ATH) and similarly Tesla is massively oversold now (-60% from ATH). Meta managed to completely recover and smash through to new All Time Highs (+38% from previous ATH). In November 2022 it was all doom and gloom for the social media giant and it is worth searching for news headlines at the time to see the similarities with Tesla's situation today.
Time will tell of course, but we wanted to bring this comparison to you and help you draw your own conclusions.
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Tesla Set to Lay Off More Than 10% of its StaffIn a recent development, Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ), the electric vehicle (EV) giant, has announced plans to lay off more than 10% of its global workforce, marking a significant shift in its operational strategy. This decision comes amidst a series of challenges facing the company, including declining vehicle deliveries and the abandonment of its plans for an inexpensive car.
According to reports from tech publication Electrek, Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) aims to streamline its operations by identifying critical team members and reducing production at Gigafactory Shanghai. Additionally, the company has paused some stock rewards and canceled annual reviews for certain employees. These measures signal a concerted effort by Tesla to navigate through a period of market turbulence and streamline its operations for future growth.
With approximately 15,000 workers expected to be affected by the layoffs, Tesla's ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) workforce reduction reflects a strategic realignment in response to changing market dynamics. Despite its status as the world's largest automaker by market value, Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) has encountered challenges in recent quarters, including a decline in vehicle deliveries – its first in nearly four years.
The announcement also comes at a pivotal time for Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ), as it prepares to report its quarterly earnings on April 23. Investors and industry analysts will closely monitor these results to gauge the company's financial performance and its ability to navigate through current market challenges.
Furthermore, Tesla's decision to abandon plans for producing an inexpensive car underscores the shifting priorities within the EV industry. While CEO Elon Musk has long championed the goal of making affordable EVs accessible to the masses, the company's strategic pivot reflects the need to adapt to changing market dynamics and consumer preferences.
Despite these challenges, Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) remains a dominant force in the EV market, with its innovative technology and brand recognition continuing to drive interest among consumers. However, as competition intensifies and market conditions evolve, Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) faces mounting pressure to deliver sustainable growth and maintain its position as a market leader.
Technical Outlook
Tesla Inc. ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) stock is down 3.22% with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 39.72 indicating an oversold position for the stock. The Monthly price chart indicates a Bearish Pennant for the stock.
Stock Market Analysis - Bullish & Bearish Sectors Heavy selling observed across the S&P500: Financials & Real Estate hit hard.
S&P500 hitting the 50 day MA...technical daily support.
Some breakout sectors are seeing there first pullback in a bullish trend.
The sectors that have had breakouts will likely see dip buyers.
Health Care & Utilities are into some interesting support levels. This is where bulls step in.
Megacap Tech still saw some flight to safety money! Lets see if this holds.
TESLA LONG TERM VIEWId be very cautious on being long on Tesla right now. Theres better stocks out there right now to be long on.
Tesla has a large zig zag behind it, which has a high likelyhood of pushing prices a lot lower.
If we start failing now, and cant hold this current zone, and even breaking 150$ is the last straw, this stock is toast and can see a drop to 120-100 dollars.
One possibility that I have labeled here is a bounce up in the coming weeks now to trap long buyers before we get our move down to 120ish.
I would not be long here.
LYFT rises on news of the MSP dispute potential resolution LONGLYFT was a recent idea upload. The news regarding MSP and the dispute resolution has helped
it rise off the ascending support trendline of the rising wedge pattern. The pattern may predict
decreasing volatility towards price consolidation and then a break out from the wedge.
In the meanwhile, I have added to my position since price is above the support trendline.
The PVT indicator shows a flip out on the pullback and I see this as a good add long entry. On a
low 1minute time frame. price gapped up with an engulfing candle with corresponding volume
at the opening bell today.
Importantly, a high volume spike also occurred in the after-market hours.
My recent previous idea long on LYFT is linked here.
The call option for $ 21.00 for April 19- 8DTE popped 140% today. I picked up a decent number of calls and will close them incrementally as they profit over the next week.
TD9 count, parabolic, MSM euphoria/ fear - Gold to Cool Offthe fundamentals on gold aren't good:
1. its a rock, King Midas can make the supply infinite
2. mining it is an environmental mess and energy waste
3. value is primarily speculative
4. ton of overhead bagholders from 1,500-2,000 days
5. crypto currency stealing new retail
6. being hoarded by fragile states/ regimes
7. regulatory risk during crisis times
8. massive derivatives & futures market pressure
9. new chemistry could obsolete its small set of utility applications
10. Peter Schiff, Rickards, Clif High, etc baby boomer ponzi crew
11. "Everyone Knows" its a good investment now right? Too Good to Be True pitfall
12. Its just a shiny metal from underground
13. Millennials are already post-gold, post-diamonds
TSLA breaks through downward resistance trendTSLA has recently broken through downward resistance trend line turning it into a support line.
TSLA has been on a long downward trend and recently broke through
stock has held breakout past few periods giving confidence in new trend
RSI still remains below 50 though which is bearish sign.
Should be cause for some optimism of a turn around. Keep in mind though TSLA products are not cheap and sensitive to economic swings. Economy is on shaky grounds so buying this low should be done with a long term horizon.
TESLA Expected Growth! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the TESLA next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 164.86
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 175.58
My Stop Loss - 158.48
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TESLA Is this a W-shaped recovery?Tesla (TSLA) held Support 1 (160.50) last Friday, in fact it touched it and rebounded immediately making a technical Double Bottom formation. Yesterday it broke and closed above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since March 04, providing s serious bullish continuation signal.
The most important development however, is that this Double Bottom has strong probabilities of giving a W-shaped recovery pattern. A break above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) will technically confirm that, as it will be the first time above it in 3 months (since January 09).
We can already see the 4H RSI on Higher Lows, i.e. a Bullish Divergence, which favors these probabilities. Our short-term Target is 205.00 (marginally below Resistance 2).
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$TSLA - BULLISH FIB Extension $504.51 and $753.38TSLA is trading at a potential bullish double bottom which could bounce off its 4 year support level around the mid $160s. If it bounces on the weekly, look for a continued bull trend. By applying a Fib extension, look for a price objective potential of hitting $504.51 and $753.38 in the foreseeable future from a technical setup. TSLA is currently in a 4 year consolidation period, watch for a breakout to all time highs if it takes out the $260s after a potential double bottom reversal.
LTFT breaks out over lower VWAP bands LONGLYFT on a 15 minute chart hit a high pivot about 3/20 and then fell until April 4 where a low
pivot reversal occurred. VWAP lines and a volume profile serve to support a bullish bias.
LYFT will likely rise to the Fibonacci level on the chart confluent with the mean anchored VWAP
or the zone of 19.25. If there is enough momentum passing through that high volume, liquidity
and volatility zone it could continue and push into the 20 level. I will take a long trade here
also noting the TSLA news regarding RoboTaxi has potential relevance. It is not beyond the
realm of possibilities that a partnership between TSLA and LYFT and or UBER comes on the
scene. This would provide a further catalyst of fundamental support for LTST's market cap.
Tesla's Bumpy Ride: Navigating Challenges Amidst a Market PlungeTesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ), the electric vehicle pioneer, finds itself in turbulent waters as it navigates through a challenging first quarter marked by a significant decline in car deliveries. With a plunge of 27% in its stock value, Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) faces a slew of obstacles, including production issues, market softness, and legal controversies surrounding its technology and leadership. As analysts speculate on the future trajectory of the company, Tesla's ability to engineer a turnaround becomes critical amidst mounting pressure and uncertainty.
Market Disappointment and Analyst Projections:
Tesla's first-quarter delivery figures fell short of expectations, delivering 387,000 vehicles, down 20% from the previous quarter and missing analysts' projections by a substantial margin. With Wall Street anticipating 443,000 deliveries, the unexpected decline has sparked concerns about Tesla's growth trajectory and market demand for electric vehicles.
Factors Contributing to the Plunge:
Several factors contributed to Tesla's disappointing performance, including production disruptions, supply chain challenges, and the shift towards early production of the next version of its Model 3 sedan. Additionally, external factors such as Red Sea shipping disruptions and suspected arson at its Berlin factory further exacerbated the slowdown in deliveries. Higher interest rates and cooling interest in electric vehicles have also dampened sales, reflecting broader economic trends and shifting consumer preferences.
Analyst Perspectives and Future Outlook:
Analysts have offered mixed perspectives on Tesla's prospects. While some view the decline as a temporary setback amidst broader market forces, others express concerns about the company's ability to sustain its growth momentum. With Tesla's stock value plummeting and mounting legal challenges, including lawsuits over its Autopilot software, the road ahead remains uncertain. However, Tesla's CEO Elon Musk remains optimistic, attributing the sales issues to business cycles and positioning the company for future growth waves.
Technical Outlook
Tesla Inc. ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) stock is up by 1.21% in Tuesday's trading session with a moderate Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 55.93 indicating signs of a bullish resurgence from the stock.
Tesla Inc. ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) stock's 3-month price chart is in a falling wedge pattern which further validates the bullish thesis of the stock.
TESLA Is it making a 'META Bottom'?Tesla / TSLA has made a Double Bottom on Friday and today is making a run for the 1day MA50.
This is an important level as since January 9th (3 months) it has been the Resistance and hasn't been broken.
But can this Double Bottom for Tesla be a 'META bottom', like the one the social media giant had in November 2022?
Both fractals formed Lower Highs under a Falling Resistance before bottoming, so if Tesla crosses over the 1day MA50, we see no reason why it shouldn't finally sustain a rally that will break above the Falling Resistance.
META's first target before the first pull back was the 0.786 Fibonacci.
Buy and target 260.00 (slightly under the 0.786 Fibonacci).
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TSLA - Weekly Inflection PointDaily is winding up to an inflection point, while the weekly is getting close as well. I'm favoring the bearish break; but there is a chance for a bullish reversal- so time will tell. What I can say is that we're approaching a conclusive point in time that will send price with signifcant momentum in either direction. When I look for an inflection point I watch for consolidating momentum. In turn I watch for breaks that releases the built up energy.
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