Tesla Motors (TSLA)
$OSK Breaking Out of Flag Formation?NYSE:OSK Here is another play on electrified specialty vehicles. Check out their website www.oshkoshcorp.com Pretty cool stuff.
I have been watching this one for a good entry since earnings on Oct 23rd. I missed the pullback breakout on Nov 13th, but it has pulled back again and looks to be breaking back above that pullback. I have started ¼ sized position and I will place my stop just below today’s low of day. I do not expect this to be barn burner but a 10% to 20% gain over the next 2 months seems reasonable. I think it can get back to the double top highs from September. All TBD.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
Tesla Unveils Its 2nd-Generation Optimus Robot 🤖
In the released video, the robot demonstrates capabilities such as controlled squatting, delicate egg transfer, and dancing. However, in the context of today's technological advancements, Optimus Gen 2 doesn't appear to boast any standout features.
The latest iteration of the robot is 10 kg lighter, 30% faster, a lot smoother, and equipped with tactile sensing on all fingers.
NASDAQ:TSLA may experience a surge as investors anticipate the potential impact of the new product on Tesla's revenue and market position.
Tesla is often seen as a company at the forefront of technological innovation. Successful product launches reinforce investor confidence in the company's ability to lead in multiple industries. A positive reception of the Optimus robot could contribute to increased investor confidence.
5 Waves Up , Diagonal Pattern?Hello!
I am a big fan of the Elliott wave principle, which I find very interesting and useful for market analysis. I have developed my analytical approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and considering various scenarios that could occur in the market.
While I would like to share my analysis with you, please note that I am not providing a buy or sell signal. My primary intention is to share my unbiased analysis so that you can utilize it as a guide to make an informed decision.
To build your confidence in my analysis, I always share my previous analysis from the same market so that you can compare and see the progress. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, which should make it easy for you to understand.
I hope that my analysis is useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best.
I am looking forward to hearing from you. Lastly, I would like to mention that like-mindedness and support, comments, and likes are the most important pillars of progress, just like support points in the financial markets. They give me the energy to continue and share more ideas with you.
Sincerely,
TSLA: An Intense Breakout is About to Occur!TSLA shares are trading in a Trap Zone, the area between the 21 EMA, which serves as the main support, and the resistance at $246.70, which was already mentioned in my last public analysis, the link to which is below this post.
This area between the 21 EMA and resistance is called the Trap Zone because as long as there is no real breakout from support or resistance, we could see several false signals and erratic, meaningless movement within the area.
The 21 EMA is slowly rising, squeezing the price against resistance at $246, and sooner or later, we will see a breakout in some direction. There's no way of knowing in which direction the breakout will occur - remember real trading is reactive, not predictive. In some cases it is possible to look for clues in an indicator such as the RSI, and look for a divergence or an Advanced Breakout (which is not the case here).
Since our last study, the price has retested the $246 area, reinforcing our main idea that this is indeed the main resistance for TSLA shares in the medium term. Only if the price breaks through this region will we see a real sign of recovery, which would represent a continuation of the upward trend.
Meanwhile, we see that the price is trading dangerously close to the 21 EMA. If the average is lost, then TSLA could trigger a new bearish move, perhaps looking to fill the gap opened at $225.40. Such a bearish move seen today is definitely suspicious, while the indices and almost all of the "magnificent 7" are rising. I wonder how long such a divergence between TSLA and the rest of the market will persist.
TSLA shares are falling this week, just as we approach the main long-term resistance at the top of its Descending Channel. The 21 EMA is also serving as support on this timeframe, which also reinforces our thesis that this area is a key support point, which could trigger a sharper correction if lost.
For the time being, as long as there is no clear break from its Trap Zone, TSLA's shares are bound to move erratically. To avoid a bearish scenario, now would be the best time to see a reaction. How the price behaves over the next few days will be crucial to what lies ahead in the medium and long term.
I'll keep you updated on this, so remember to like this post, and follow me for more analysis like this.
Best regards,
Nathan.
TESLA: Optimism, Challenges, and the Road AheadTESLA: Optimism, Challenges, and the Road Ahead
Tesla, the electric vehicle giant, has garnered attention for its extraordinary 10-year return of 2,560%, making it a standout investment. Despite a notable 98% surge this year, surpassing the broader market, Tesla's shares currently trade at a substantial 41% below their peak of $410 in November 2021. With optimistic investors eyeing a $500 target, envisioning over a 100% gain from the current price, achieving this milestone by 2024 is a possibility, but certain challenges must be navigated.
Factors Influencing Tesla's Trajectory:
Tesla's historic success forms the backdrop for investor optimism, but realizing the $500 target necessitates specific factors. Key among them is a renewed focus on fundamental improvements, crucial for the long-term performance of the stock. Tesla's robust growth has historically been the driving force, positioning the company as a global leader in the electric vehicle movement.
However, a noticeable slowdown in 2023 raises concerns. In the recent quarter (Q3 2023), Tesla's revenue increased by a modest 9%, a departure from the double-digit growth the company has been known for. Elon Musk attributes this to challenges in the macroeconomic environment, including diminished affordability and consumer uncertainty, especially concerning significant purchases.
Challenges in Revenue Growth and Profitability:
To sustain upward momentum, Tesla must address challenges in revenue growth and profitability. Fierce competition and continuous price reductions to preserve market share have impacted profitability significantly. In Q3, Tesla reported an operating margin of 7.6%, a substantial decline from the 17.2% recorded a year ago. Substantial improvements in margins will be pivotal for sustained stock performance in 2024.
Valuation Considerations:
Beyond revenue and earnings growth, Tesla's valuation is a critical consideration. Currently, the stock carries a substantial price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 78, largely fueled by a 105% increase in the P/E multiple this year. While some argue this valuation is justified, growing investor enthusiasm poses challenges for prospective shareholders seeking significant returns.
Tempering Expectations:
Assuming Tesla's valuation will continue to rise may be overly optimistic, especially in an unpredictable market environment with higher interest rates and inflation. To reach $500 by the end of next year, Tesla would need outstanding financial results, including a doubling of earnings per share between 2023 and 2024. However, recent trends suggest this bullish scenario may face challenges, urging investors to temper their expectations and carefully assess the evolving landscape for Tesla.
Tesla's journey to $500 by 2024 is marked by both optimism and challenges. While the company's historic success forms a solid foundation, addressing concerns in revenue growth, profitability, and managing valuation expectations will be crucial. Investors are advised to approach this potential milestone with a balanced perspective, considering the evolving market dynamics and the need for sustained fundamental performance in the coming year.
TSLA back to 400TSLA is in the last leg of its wave pattern. It's previous wave low was at 196, and since has followed the wave pattern back above its moving averages.
It also has formed a nice rounding pattern, suggesting we would get back to old highs of 375-400 by March 2024. This would be a 3.25:1 risk reward ratio. WIth the stop loss being at the previous wave low of 196.
🚗 Unfolding Tesla's Plan 📉📈Everything is going according to plan at Tesla. After our two entries, with the first one at $206 still open, we are still hovering around the $242 mark. As anticipated, we find ourselves in a rather complex correction that is not yet completed on the downside.
I expect a pullback for Wave C, which could range between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. The extent of the downward move remains to be seen, but I would suggest it may not be too deep. If we manage to form Wave C, we are on the verge of the significant and lengthy Wave 3, potentially reaching up to $300. Stay tuned for the ride! 🚀✨
Trading TSLA while is moves sidewaysI have already published an analysis where I expect TSLA to go down in the coming few weeks.
The stock is trading sideways and one can use that movement to skim more profits.
I have used the typical support and resistance on the 4HR timeframe to develop 3 supports and 3 resistance levels. These can be traded both within the support and resistance levels or if the stock breaks through these levels as shown on the chart.
TESLA: 'Final boss' Resistance test.TSLA was rejected on the November 29th test on the LH trendline of July's High but upon the pullback it held the 4H MA50 and reversed. Contrary to the previous LH rejections (Oct 11th, Sep 15th), the stock is being given the chance to make another test on a very short time. Being still bullish on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 57.232, MACD = 1.890, ADX = 23.357) suggests that if the 4H MA50 remains intact, Tesla can finally cross over this five month Resistance trendline and start a new rally.
The longer the price stays this high, the more quicker a 4H Golden Cross will be formed, which is will be a bullish signal validation. Last 4H Golden Cross was registered on June 5th, almost halfway through the three month rally. In any case, it the LH of July successfully breaks, we expect the established Channel Up pattern from the October 31st bottom to make another +20% rally to the R1 level (TP = 278.00).
See how our prior idea has worked:
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
$FSR - RSI Bottomed - Bottom of Channel - Ready to POP!!!Cars are being produced and delivered. 550M inventory and 520M cash on hand as of their last Q financial report. 522M marketcap. 2024 will be a big year for Fisker in my opinion. Produced by $MGA. Can't wait for the Alska EV pickup! Own your own trades. Do not take this as any financial advice. I have a long position.
TSLA: Technical OutlookIn a 1h chart Tesla is currently in a consolidation. I'd expect a breakout in today's session. Since July Tesla has been trading in a big bullish flag (trend lines filled in blue), breaking above this formation should be seen as bullish indicator for long term trend. Areas plotted to look out for, combined with daily and weekly MAs to be used as S/R confluences.
Tesla: Elon Musk Has A ProblemFounded in 2003 by visionary entrepreneur Elon Musk, Tesla has become a pioneer in the automotive industry. The company is one of the world's largest manufacturers of electric cars.
Beyond cars, Tesla has expanded its reach into renewable energy solutions, including solar panels and energy storage products. Musk's bold vision, commitment to technological advancement, and the company's relentless pursuit of sustainability have positioned Tesla as a transformative force in the intersection of transportation and clean energy.
Technical analysis
After the completion of the impulse phase, marked on the chart as ①-②-③-④-⑤, the price of Tesla shares continues to move within the downward trend.
We expect the share price to stabilize once it reaches $220, after which it will begin to move north to $250.
Fundamental Analysis
Tesla's revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2023 was $23.35 billion, up 8.9% compared to the third quarter of 2022.
Author's elaboration, based on Seeking Alpha
In addition to the company's margins continuing to decline, the Model S and Model X deliveries have continued to disappoint in recent quarters.
Author's elaboration, based on quarterly securities reports
Also, production and delivery volumes of Model 3 and Model Y, which are the cheapest in Tesla's line of cars, decreased compared to the previous quarter, which casts doubt on Musk's ability to attract new customers.
Author's elaboration, based on quarterly securities reports
The company's earnings per share (EPS) for the three months ended September 30, 2023 were $0.66, missing analysts' expectations of $0.07. But more importantly, this figure decreased by 37.1% compared to the previous year due to increased competition in the global electric vehicle market and lower prices for Tesla products.
Author's elaboration, based on Seeking Alpha
On the other hand, the company's fourth-quarter EPS is expected to be in the range of $0.55-$0.92, down 38.17% from the fourth quarter of 2023. Tesla's Non-GAAP (TTM) P/E is 65.26x, which is 361.86% higher than the sector average and 57.91% lower than the average over the past five years. The company's Non-GAAP P/E is 73.66x, indicating that it is overvalued in the current period as Chinese automakers continue to expand their presence in Europe and the United States actively.
Show your support by liking👍, following✅, sharing🙌, and commenting✍! Feel free to share your ideas and charts below. Your engagement is crucial in spreading the word and maintaining the relevance of the content. Thanks for being an essential part of this community!
Analyst’s Disclosure:
This article may not take into account all the risks and catalysts for the stocks described in it. Any part of this analytical article is provided for informational purposes only, does not constitute an individual investment recommendation, investment idea, advice, offer to buy or sell securities, or other financial instruments. The completeness and accuracy of the information in the analytical article are not guaranteed. If any fundamental criteria or events change in the future, I do not assume any obligation to update this article.
TESLA Buy signal on the (1h) time frame.TSLA is trading inside a Channel Up pattern under the MA50 (1h).
The Higher Low was priced after a -8.20% decline from the top, symmetrical to the first one.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy as long as the candles close inside the Channel Up.
Targets:
1. 257.50 (Fibonacci 1.236 extension, like the Nov 29th Higher High).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) is on a technical buy formation under the MA trend line.
Please like, follow and comment!!
Notes:
Past trading plan:
TSLA: A Powerful Turnaround is About to Happen (D & W analysis)!Since our last study, we have observed that TSLA shares are trying to resume the medium-term uptrend by attempting to break through the last top at $246.70. The problem is that the price failed to close above this resistance on the daily chart, so the upward movement failed to materialize. The link to my previous public analysis is below this post, as usual.
On the other hand, the bears failed to take the price below the support at $226.37, the previous top that should act as future support. TSLA shares would only reverse the bullish sentiment if they made a lower bottom than the previous one, breaking through the last support at $226.37.
For now, it looks like the 21 EMA is serving as a very good support point. So, if you ask me, the trend is still up, as the price movement pattern is still one of higher highs/higher lows, trading above the moving average, even if it hasn't officially broken through the last top at $246.70 (and closing above it). And in fact, this is an interesting point, as confirmation of a bottom signal in the vicinity of the 21 EMA could trigger the next bullish rally - and the price is reacting well so far, but there is no confirmation yet. The bearish reversal point would be $226. The weekly chart shows how critical the moment is for TSLA shares:
The price has just hit the resistance of its Descending Channel for the fifth time, and as usual failed to break through it. That's why if the price loses the $226 area, we could see a continuation down to the support line of this channel, well below $200.
But what if the price reacts and breaks through the resistance to the upside? Then we'll have something new, which in my opinion would be a technical turning point that would take the price to the next resistance on the weekly chart, around $300.
There are opportunities in the medium term, but the price needs to react and confirm a breakout of one of its key points, either resistance or support, to confirm a real reversal. I'll keep you updated, so remember to follow me and support this idea if you find it interesting.
Remember, we can't predict the future. Real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's pay attention to the key points mentioned in this analysis.
Best regards,
Nathan.
SHORTING $TSLAWhy I am bearish on NASDAQ:TSLA
- Rejected bearish trend line
- Rejected SFX Algo volatility bands
- WBR Forecast indicator is BEARISH
- SFX Algo lower timeframes are bearish (3 minute, 15 minute, 30 minute)
My personal trade:
Stop Loss / Take Profits:
- Entry: $244.00
- Take Profit 1: $231.40
- Take Profit 2: $205.69
- Take Profit 3: $195.56
- Stop Loss: $268.94
TSLA priced in Spot Gold. Should I sell or buy ?I have holdings in both TSLA and XAUSUD. The question arises should I sell one to buy the other?
To answer the question. I have set up a ratio between the two of them on a daily chart.
Overlaid onto the chart is a pair of Hull Moving Averages the shorter MA with a period of 49
in blue and the longer by about 3x at 154 in red. ( These are multiples of 7 if you are curious
why, leave a comment.) I am looking for moving average cross overs of the golden or
death type. The dual time frame RS indication compares the lower TF of 3 hrs with the higher
TF of one week. The ratio is now just under the POC line of the long term volume profile
so traders shorting this ratio ( those selling TSLA and /or buying gold) are now in charge.
My analysis is that the ratio has hit a pivot high, the trend is now downward
as the blue line going under the red is a death cross. The RSI indicator has a confirmatory
similar cross. Accordingly, I will sell some TSLA and buy a similar amount of spot gold
instead.
Potential Impact of Cybertruck Production Nightmare on TeslaI would like to discuss the recent production nightmare surrounding the highly anticipated Cybertruck and how it could potentially impact Tesla's overall performance.
As we are all aware, Tesla has been at the forefront of electric vehicle innovation, revolutionizing the industry and capturing the imagination of investors and consumers alike. However, recent reports suggest that the production challenges faced by the Cybertruck have the potential to cast a shadow over Tesla's otherwise impressive track record.
The Cybertruck, with its bold design and promising features, has generated significant pre-order interest, reflecting the strong demand for Tesla's products. However, it is essential to consider the potential consequences of the production hurdles that Tesla has encountered. Delays in manufacturing, supply chain disruptions, and quality control issues could lead to dissatisfied customers, tarnishing Tesla's reputation for delivering cutting-edge products on time.
While Tesla has demonstrated resilience in overcoming obstacles in the past, it is crucial to approach this situation with caution. As traders, it is our responsibility to evaluate the potential risks associated with such setbacks and make informed decisions regarding our investment strategies.
Considering the gravity of the situation, I encourage you to closely monitor Tesla's progress in addressing the production challenges faced by the Cybertruck. Keep a keen eye on any developments or announcements that could shed light on the company's ability to overcome these obstacles effectively.
In light of these circumstances, some traders may consider exploring shorting opportunities for Tesla. However, it is important to remember that shorting a stock carries inherent risks and requires careful analysis of market trends, financial indicators, and broader industry dynamics. I urge you to consult with your trusted financial advisors or conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.
Ultimately, the purpose of this email is to highlight the potential risks associated with the Cybertruck production nightmare and emphasize the importance of cautious evaluation. As traders, we must remain vigilant, informed, and adaptable in navigating the ever-changing landscape of the stock market.
Nvidia Tesla Microsoft Google Apple Amazon Meta AnalysisNvidia Tesla Microsoft Google Apple Amazon Meta Analysis | Support & Resistance Guide
00:00 QQQ Forecast
05:46 Sp500 ETF analysis
08:03 Nvidia Stock NVDA Forecast Technical Analysis
09:23 Tesla Stock TSLA Forecast Technical Analysis
11:12 Apple Stock AAPL Forecast Technical Analysis
13:03 Amazon Stock AMZN Forecast Technical Analysis
14:00 Google Stock GOOGL Forecast Technical Analysis
15:49 Microsoft Stock MSFT Forecast Technical Analysis
17:32 Meta Forecast Technical Analysis