Is TSLA overbought and ready for a retracement?TSLA has run up over 100% this year in two separate waves. Some traders based on the
the magnitude of the current wave say it is overbought? But is it or are they just trying to
rationalize a short trade at what they think is the top? Are Jim Cramer and Kathie Wood wrong?
On the daily chart of TSLA, I have added a long term volume profile, an anchored VWAP
with lines for the mean and = /1 two standard deviations. I have drawn two zones of
horizontal resistance based on pivots in the past couple of years. Zero-lag MACD and RSI
indicators are added as well. I make the following points:
(1) Price is above the high volume area of the profile but not significantly so.
(2) Price is below the resistance zones and TSLA may have enough momentum to break through them without hesitation.
(3) Price has crossed over the mean anchored VWAP but has a long way to go before it ascends
to the second standard deviation where institutional traders may be prone to take short
positions ( overbought)
(4) The MACD indicator shows K/D lines in parallel and ascending above the histogram. With no lag to contend with a cross of the lines would be an early indication of an overbought condition.
Bearish divergence would suggest TSLA is overbought but there is none.
(5) The better RSI indicator shows the value rising from 40 to 70 in the current uptrend. A rise over 80 and then a drop to show bearish divergence would be an indication of an overbought condition. This has not occurred.
Based on all of this, I can easily conclude that TSLA is not overbought. Any traders who
say it is overbought may be simply trying to discourage further buying. I suppose that they might do so because they are in a short position that is now essentially self-liquidating.
If that is the case, their better approach might be to get rid of their position, buy to cover
and help TSLA move higher.
I will continue to try to add to my long position in TSLA when I see daily lows on
the 15 or less-minute time frame. From the overhead resistance, I can appreciate
there is still significant profit potential with TSLA especially since the resistance may
evaporate away letting TSLA bull run its way " blue sky".
