The TTF FM is trapped in a sideway movement. After a cone and SKS formation which was resolved bearish with the slump to 43,2 we now see a completed but still not active DBW. The ideal upper target (box) is 51, the statistical target is the equal to the important top at 49.5 The bearish breakout would be at 43,2 and would imply the gap close at 37. Typically DBW...
Seasonal European NatGas is week, but typically in August the rebound starts regarding due to the hedging of winter demand. The chart already shows a potential pattern, i.e. a potential ABC embedded in a channel. If this channel breaks, we might see an increase to 45 €/MWh.
If I elaborate on my earlier scenario with unfinished correction, Natgas might perform a spectacular drop over the next few days before resuming the uptrend. Before this, I expected a triangle, then a flat with an ending diagonal and now a classic expanded flat in wave b. Since wave a was a contracting diagonal, there is an 80% chance that wave c is a quick...
It seems like the correction is not yet done as the triagnle is part of wave b not c.
Natural gas appears to be nearing the end of its correction before continuing its ascent into the end of the summer/earluy autumn. Since wave 3 is shorter than wave 1, wave 5 must be shorter than wave 3 because the third wave cannot be the shortest. Wave 4 can be done as an expanded flat (notice the rule with variation with wave 2). Also, we can expect a...
I believe the leading diagonal wave (a) has ended, and we are now in wave (b), which can take various forms (including the possibility that it has already ended). I suggested a few possible paths. Once there is a pattern or a mature wave count in wave (b), I can make an assumption when exactly the next leg up will occur.
The idea has two parts: fundamental and technical analysis . The latter is based on the weekly chart. On the fundamental side , several essential and minor factors affect and could affect March 2023 price change. Let's divide them into three groups. Bullish : Russian shutdown of gas supply to Europe Russia has cut its European flows for the last...
NG1! broke down out of the raising wedge (yellow) and I expect further downside. It will prolly not be in straight line, pullbacks along the way expected. Actually now we are sitting at the support zone 7.78 - 7.55, so bounce up or sideways before next leg down is possible. Target being the support zone 6.46-5.95 and potentially the lime uptrendline. Also there...
Recent moves in the EUR/USD exchange rate have been driven primarily by the price differential between natural gas in the United States and Europe, rather than by the ECB's historic rate hike last week. Over the last 90 days, the correlation coefficient between EUR/USD and US-EU gas price differentials is 0.88, indicating a very strong relationship between the...
EUR/USD fell below parity once again today CAPITALCOM:EURUSD , but this time the reason is more complex than a divergence in Fed-ECB interest rate policy. Recent price differences for natural gas between Europe and the US have become a key factor for the euro's decline, even more than 2-year Germany-US yield differentials. As Dutch TTF prices reached new...
The closer the winter, the stronger Russia leverages against Europe become. Main one being natural gas. Europe imports 90% of it's gas and Russia was importing 40% of it. Prices were much cheaper than LNG since it was transferred through pipes. Now, the biggest gas pipeline in Europe - Nord Stream is getting used by Russia as a weapon against European...
INVESTMENT CONTEXT In the wake of robust demand despite mounting recession fears, Saudi Aramco hiked its crude oil prices for Asia's market to near record on July 5. In August Arab Light crude price will sit at USD 9.30/boe above the regional benchmark For the first time since May 11, WTI crude oil fell below USD 100/boe. According to Citigroup, oil price...
INVESTMENT CONTEXT Inflation in Eurozone climbed from 8.1% in May to 8.6% in June, growing in 17 of 19 countries, with the notable exception of Germany (slide from 8.7% to 8.2%) and the Netherlands (from 10.2% to 9.9%). ECB officially scrapped its EUR 20bn/months bond-buying program on July 1 S&P 500 energy sub-index fell 17% in June, ranking as the...
INVESTMENT CONTEXT Inflation in the UK reached 9.1% in May, up a tad from 9.0% reading in April IEA warned the EU to brace for a potential full cut of energy supply from Russia, with outsized repercussions on the bloc's GDP Germany’s finance minister called the EU ban on sales of combustion engines cars by 2035 a “wrong decision” Goldman Sachs upped...
INVESTMENT CONTEXT Markets reacted positively to the Fed's 75bps rates hike on June 15. Traders in particular appreciated the positive tone on 75-50bps increase next month According to the latest Fed forecast, inflation is expected to top 4.3% by the end of 2022 and 2.7% in 2023; unemployment is said to reach 3.9% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024 On June 16...
INVESTMENT CONTEXT President Joe Biden said America's goal is a "democratic, independent" Ukraine with the means to "defend itself against further aggression" In a move to counter EU's partial embargo on crude oil, Russia cut off more gas supplies to companies in Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands, stating they failed to make payments in RUB U.S....
INVESTMENT CONTEXT Russia's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Lavrov, said that "liberating" the Donbas region of Ukraine was still Russia's "unconditional" priority Germany's economy minister, Robert Habeck, warned the EU resolve on sanctions to Russia was starting to "crumble" Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is still expected to maintain his...
This week started with rising fuel prices, as it is getting colder in Europe. The ICE Dutch TTF January gas futures’ prices are close to $160 per MWh and are above October all-time highs. The Weather forecast reports that the temperature will soon drop below zero centigrade in several European cities, and that may cause the power grid to exceed its capacity. But...