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Turkey

USD/TRY Bulls keep eyes on 14.00 - 15.80 | But when ? USD/TRY yesterday remains range-bound near $12.40 heading into Monday’s European session. The Turkish lira (TRY) pair snapped a two-day downtrend the previous day while staying past a weekly ascending support line. Given the MACD line teasing bullish cross, as the quote remains above the short-term rising support line, USD/TRY buyers are likely to aim for the one-week-old horizontal resistance near $12.70. Following that, the $13.00 threshold may offer an intermediate halt during the run-up to the recently flashed record top of $13.49. Meanwhile, a downside break of the aforementioned support line near $12.30 will aim for a 50% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) level of the November 18-23 rally, around $12.00. During the USD/TRY weakness below the $12.00 threshold, the previous resistance line from November 23 and 61.8% Fibo., respectively around $11.80 and $11.60, will challenge the bears before October’s peak of $9.85. USD/TRY today advances for the third session in a row at the beginning of the week and trades at shouting distance from last week’s all-time highs past 13.0000 the figure ((November 24). The lira depreciates further on Monday in response to earlier comments by President Erdogan, who once again reiterated its firm opposition to interest rate hikes and sustained his (particular) view that interest rates generate inflation. Erdogan suggested that inflation could grind lower before the election in 2023 and added that the recent high volatility in the exchange rate is decoupled from economic fundamentals. Further selling pressure in the lira came after Turkey’s Economic Confidence Index eased to 99.30 in November (from 101.40). Additional data saw the trade deficit shrinking to $1.44B in October. key levels: So far, the pair is gaining 4.19% at 12.7578 and a drop below 11.5451 (low November 24) would expose 10.7007 (20-day SMA) and then 9.6361 (55-day SMA). On the other hand, the next up barrier lines up at 13.1105 (all-time high Nov.24) followed by 14.0000 (round level). -USD/TRY starts the week on a positive footing. -Turkey’s Economic Confidence dropped to 99.30. -President Erdogan defended once again the low-rate policy. USDTRY can be a profitable investment option. USD/TRY rate equal to 13.0648 at 2021-11-30 (today's range: 12.0455 - 13.0658). ... With a 2-year investment, the revenue is expected to be around +23.60%. Buy & Hold | +ROI Investment Suggestion: LONG-TERM Holding Duration : Min 2 yeasrs Probability: 74% Target: 14.0000-15.8000 INVT Fundamental Report: POSITIVE INVT Technical Report: POSITIVE INVT News Report: POSITIVE - SELLING PRESSURE PRICE 13.0000 - 13.0700 - FAIR BUYING PRICE 12.0000 - 12.3000 - Our option for #USDTRY is LONG TERM HOLDING. It’s important to keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict what a coin’s price will be in a few hours or a few days and even harder to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and online forecasting sites can get their predictions wrong. We recommend that you always do your own research and consider the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis , and expert opinion before making any investment decisions. Be patient and look long term wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Trading & Investing both are the master of RISK. Please comment, like and follow if it was helpful for you. Thank you for your time. Have a profitable day. | Review and analysis by Samadi.Finance |
Long
by AliSamadiTR
11
USD TRY long term view up to 10.60 - 12.00Currency markets were becalmed in early Asian trade on Monday. The only action was on the Emerging Markets with the Turkish Lira hitting an all-time low. Against the US Dollar, the TRY (Turkish Lira) hit a record low of 9.85 so far in early Asia. * Turkey 2021 inflation target raised to 18.4% from 14.1% * Miners lead losses in China, Russia as commodity prices fall * U.S. telecoms regulator revokes China Telecom’s authorisation Emerging market stocks slipped for a third session on Thursday as sliding commodity prices and fresh fears about U.S.-China ties weighed, while Turkey’s lira fell on a worrying divergence between the direction of inflation and monetary policy. With sliding base metal and basic material prices, miners led losses in most bourses. Heavyweight China stocks lost between 0.4% and 1.2%, while a 4% slump in Russian aluminium giant Rusal took Moscow’s MOEX index 0.9% lower, more than 2% away from record highs. Meanwhile, news of the U.S. telecoms regulator revoking China Telecom’s authorisation to operate late on Wednesday sparked fears about the fragile relation between the world’s two largest economies. A tit-for-tat tariff war between China and former U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration had roiled global financial markets and contributed to slowing economic growth. In debt markets, the average yield on EM local debt moved back above 5.6%, the highest since March 2020. While most EM currencies made muted moves against a steady dollar, Turkey’s lira dipped 0.7% after a three-day relief rally. The central bank raised inflation targets for the next three years, with 2021 year-end inflation now seen at 18.4%, up from an earlier forecast of 14.1%. “The argument that high inflation is transitory may be true elsewhere, but not in Turkey, which has experienced high inflation for over a decade,” said Tatha Ghose, FX analyst at Commerzbank. “No matter what (the central bank) writes in its statements about limited room available for further rate cuts, President Tayyip Erdogan will not be happy until rates have been cut to single digit... As the unconventional monetary policy experiment unfolds, we can see USD-TRY overshooting by a wide margin.” The currency has been the worst performing among EM peers this year, thanks to uncertain and unconventional monetary policy amid surging inflation by a central bank fast losing autonomy, as well as depleting foreign exchange reserves and strained ties with the West. South Africa’s rand traded flat as state power utility Eskom increased scheduled power cuts on Wednesday after further breakdowns at its coal-fired power stations. A report suggested it will require $30 billion to end its coal reliance. Eyes were also on local elections scheduled on Monday. A weak result for the ruling ANC party in Johannesburg or in Tshwane, which comprises Pretoria, would be a heavy blow for President Cyril Ramaphosa and his reform course, and is therefore also likely to affect the rand, said Commerzbank. USDTRY can be a profitable investment option. USD/TRY rate equal to 9.632 at 2021-11-03 (today's range: 9.593 - 9.658). ... With a 5-year investment, the revenue is expected to be around +62.89%. - SELLING PRESSURE PRICE 9.55 - 10.00 - FAIR BUYING PRICE 7.80 - 8.90 - Our option for #USDTRY is HOLDING LONG TERM. Do your research before any trade or any investment, make your own decision, be patient and look long term wisely. Please comment, like and follow if this post helped you. Thank you for your time. Have a profitable trading. | Review and analysis by Samadi.Finance |
Long
by AliSamadiTR
2
USD/TRY PARALEL KANAL TEPE TESTİDXY tepki alımları alsada genel dxy trendi aşağı yönlü. Dolar tl paralel kenar üst sınırlarını test edicek ve kritik bölgede bulunmakta eğer kanal üst sınırlarından tepki yemesi halinde 1w/1mo. sfp oluşturabilir ve kısa-orta dönem düşüş trendi başlatabilir eğer kanalı yukarı yönlü kırması halinde bir başka s/r flip gerçekleşecek ve parabolik gitme şansı var. kanalın içinde kalıp kısa orta vadede kanal alt çizgisine dönüş yapması daha olası.
Short
by MR0XT
9
TURKISH LIRATRY has been weakening against USD for a long time. Last week, Turkish Central Bank slashed its key interest rate to 18%, and the inflation in the country is more than 19%. From USDTRY log chart we can see the clear uptrend and the price movement is tightening forming a rising wedge. The ratio is climbing but with lower and lower momentum. RSI is also indicating to divergences. After breaking down from the pattern, the next support areas are marked in red zones. Also, the green support line that has been keeping the price up since 2014 is indicated.
Short
by lalayev