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Turkey

Applied ROC Strategy on Turkish Defense Company : AselsanAbout ROC Strategy : Go Long when the ROC crosses above the Value of '0' Short when the ROC crosses below the Value of '0'. The strategy is a reversal strategy through the use of the 'Cover and go Long' and 'Close and go Short' Actions. The ROC property of 'Period' can be changed for testing purposes using the available ROC 'Factor' Important Notice : Although I publish this article in 30 mins period, the strategy works best with the intraday trading(1 min). If you decide to adapt this strategy to your Algo Trader, remind urselfs that %P&L for intraday is around ~8%. Also bear in mind the Turkish Stock Market Volatility plus any political related decisions on defense companies inside and outside the coutnry. The %P&L ratios has been calculated throug BackTesting&Optimizing on Bloomberg Terminal for July 2020. The above references an opinion and is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.
BIST:ASELS
by UnknownUnicorn2854563
ridethepig | TRY Market Commentary 2020.06.15📍 The panic leg here is because we are reaching the endgame in the economic cycle. There is a risk of Turkish banks defaulting on this leg so watch-out for any exposure to specific sectors. If the operation demonstrated is a successful attack, then we have the final ✅ for those trading the macro move called last year: EM FX looks extremely vulnerable for any overshoots on the risk front, local banks have been attempting to protect the 6.80x, if we can hold for today then we will start to see momentum kicking in. Turkey looks awful on the fundamental front and political too, a complete disaster mismanagement of the crisis. The main thing is that 7.80x should be restrained via Fed => the attack on the final base can be brutal .. let's see if it plays out.
Long
by ridethepig
6
Remittent 10-Year Journey of Turkish Banks #1 (Akbank) Akbank, one of the largest banks in Turkey have devalued -86.18% in last 10 years against United States Dollar . Even though most of the Turkish Banks are listed cheaper than a bottled of water, why foreign-investors still keep liquidating their positions? There have been many political, economic and geopolitical changes since 2010 in Turkey. Whilst these have been never seemed an issue by Turkish people, liquidation of foreign investment capitals from Turkish Industries proves that we are getting closer to the light at the end of the tunnel. The above references an opinion and is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.
BIST:AKBNK
by UnknownUnicorn2854563
ridethepig | Thoughts and Themes in TurkeySwings and position building We have witnessed a tremendous amount of profit taking after clearing the 7.23 targets in USDTRY and are arriving back into major support territory. The pick-up in local activity was notable as banks were forced to defend the TRY. Many clients I speak to are happy to continue buying USDTRY , the picture looks gloomy for Turkey and real money continues to sit on the bid. On the monetary side, the CBRT cutting by 50bps was widely expected although wont make much difference at this stage. EM FX will remain under pressure if we see a broad risk-off environment this week. Keeping a close ear to the wires for any updates on swap lines, those looking for positioning in USDTRY should always think about loading in a safe place. Such a shelter will render us a superb shelter when the storm hits shore... A massive 30% macro swing after an obvious mistake from Erdogan. Turkey will remain sluggish until they expose the issues underneath, the correct idea would be to put pressure on CBRT which is what markets are doing and show no signs of stopping in the Short-term. Here 7.80 would be the measured target in the shelter then profit taking can begin again. As with any swing, it is important we assess the downside to see if we find something which is to our advantage. The dollar devaluation is the only technique that the Fed can construct, the only defence left in the toolkit is -ve rates and like a scout putting up his tent we must prepare. Depending on how quickly markets begin to price negative rates in USD, we may fail to complete the mission towards 7.80.
Long
by ridethepig
3
USDTRY: WeeklyAs you see, current bullish move was already predictable from October 2019 using TD (DeMark) breakout projection no. 2. Now, price is facing very strong support - May central pivot range (CPR), May Camarilla S3 reversal level, yearly classic S2 pivot, yearly Fibonacci S3 pivot (did not plot the last 2 to have it more clear - but they are there) all at same point, confluence with May S3 reversal level. If this level holds and price is rejected, what is also possible, it will bounce up and continue in uptrend or range above monthly CPR. If price breaks through monthly pivot range, as it is moving quite decisively into it and we have got that weekly pin bar reversal on top, short trade may be taken to former yearly roof R4, now support. At any case May CPR (I highlighted it black) is a fulcrum which holds the price now. If it is pierced through, that is it. After reaching highs, Turkish lira makes those descending ranging tails. What might be a scenario here. But there is a concern - price missed April pivot and April CPR, did not even test those. Such things occur at the onset of strong trends. Next month (or be it a day, week, depending on chart) price pulls back to the pivot and continues higher. So it is very important what happens at May CPR (that highlighted black zone). Price should move lower and touch S3 - May pivot. Then we will react depending on how it will behave after that. S4 is May floor. May roof R4 was pierced, that should be noted too. THIS IS NO FINANCIAL ADVISE. FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.
by ICFX
1
ridethepig | Squeeze!Recognise that this demand for USD is squeezing USDTRY into the secondary macro swing targets at 6.60xx. This is completely inline with the forecasts and all those in leveraged positions are inclined to take profits. We are not out of the woods (yet) and large hands will continue to buy dips in USDTRY as long as we remain in risk-off flows. As widely mentioned "local banks will come under pressure and show severe distress above 7" ...increasingly this is becoming the target as weak fundamentals and dictators limit ability to invest in the currency. Expect some consolidation over the coming days before further funding issues add upward pressure via USD demand. Good luck all those buying the dips, highly recommend tracking TRY as a good benchmark to health in EM FX. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, as usual jump into the comments with your charts, view and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
4
Potential growth of USDTRY as waging war agains Syria1. Wait for breaking parallel channel or resistance line then take long 2. Wait till lower band of parallel channel and then take long Turkey officially declare war against Syria. it could bring chaos to middle east. Russia also is defending Syria. Turkey threatened NATO to support otherwise it would open its borders and free Syrian refugee to flee to EU countries.Turkey did it and refugees had faced a very bad conflict with police of Bulgaria and Greece (EU Gate). Turkey is drowning as more than 45% of GDP made by external loan from international institution like IMF as an example. How could a country be independent while it has 433 Billion USD external load more than 45% of GDP!? President of Turkey Erdugan said we would not get any dollar from IMF as it would violate our foreign independence. After some months it appears Erdugan could not resist foreign pressure and wage war. If both sides of conflict could not reach an agreement that would be death and destruction. Erdugan could not rescue Turkey economy by doing this and corona virus could damage tourism earning so much so bye bye Lira! bye bye foreign real estate investors! USA will use Turkey like a tissue and then throw it away. History will repeat itself.
Long
by amirameri89
1