Turkey
PENGUINS PLAY WITH TURKEY THIS TIME:) USDTRY 7/12/2019Hello Traders!
We would like to show you a game...
While Penguins are on the hunt, you can easily join them as well!
It is easy, all you need to do is to collect the hearts and watch for the pig and thunder signs.
Targets are marked on the chart as a crosshair.
Heart in the box - a place to jump in/out
Sign with exclamation mark - places to be aware of a few different types of reactions from this level
Target sign - the first target to focus on
Thunder sign - spot to react - possible jump to push into reversal
Penguin - expected direction
Have fun with it, and remember - this game is about the patience. Keep yourself cool, whilst not being greedy.
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BIST 100 Price Action Analysis | Trend Reversal OpportunityTurkey Stock Market has reentered to the Trading Range. Even though there might be some consolidation in the Demand OB, current structure indicates this downward momentum won’t stop until reaching the Range Low and gathering the enough liquidity.
Entry: 88500
SL: 83400
TP-1: 98900
TP-2: 103900
TP-3: 108900
R/R: 4
Please let me know if you have any suggestions or any ideas to add. I can also give you more detailed explanation for this specific trade setup.
The ideas published here are not financial advices.
TRYJPY Breaks ConsolidationUnfortunately the break happened on a Friday. Will be looking to enter this trade next week as I do not want to hold over the weekend in this type of macro environment.
First of all in terms of market structure, we had an uptrend with defined and multiple swings. What we look for. Then we stopped making higher lows and began ranging. We thus have seen 2/3 ways of the only ways all markets move.
This break of the support level was quite strong as indicated by the large red body candle. And, it broke a flip zone level too. We even got a lower bounce pattern which is another confluence.
For next week, I would like to see a retest of the break which would then create a lower high we can work with. That is ideal.
Target will be the flip zone at 18.50.
EURTRY Ausbruch verliert etwas an DynamikNach dem Ausbruch aus dem Abwärtsdreieck pendelt der Kurs leider seit mehreren Tagen um die 6.50 herum.
Die fehlende Dynamik lässt meine "Conviction" etwas schmelzen.
Dennoch bleibt bis auf weiteres das Long Szenario weiter aktuell.
Die politische Lage ist weiter sehr undurchsichtig. So unangenehm es klingt aber der erste Impuls, dass der angezettelte Krieg schlecht für Wirtschaft und Währung ist, könnte sich als übertrieben herausstellen und gegebenenfalls sogar ins Gegenteil umschlagen.
Bullishes Szenario definitv beendet bei Kursen um 6.20
TRYJPY Double Bottom FormingMaybe not the most popular trade idea given what is occurring with Turkey geopolitically, but a good set up nonetheless.
Been in a downtrend with multiple waves, and we hit a support/flip zone which can be seen by going further back or on the daily chart.
A double bottom indicates a possible exhaustion of the trend as no new lower lows have been made.
I am looking here for a break and close above the 18.54 zone but perhaps 18.60 is better since we take out the previous lower high.
19.10 zone would be the target if we get the break.
ORBEX: USDTRY - Expecting Minute 3 To Break The 6.00 Barrier?USDTRY could move a tad higher to complete minute wave 3 near 6.1358 before correcting lower.
Minute wave 3 is part of minor 3, which is part of intermediate wave 3. The latter has projected target near 7.25
Look for a valid breakout above minor 1 at 6.0373!
Should prices move below 5.6343 low bears would gain more control? Early invalidation signals near 5.75.
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
The Turkish FUD Hype slowly faded offThe USD is strong against the Pound Euro Yen Yuan, but this is only because they have been devalued so much.
Turkey did not immediately go into a collapse, as usual investors have overreacted, now that I think of BTC it is the opposite where they undereact to every thing and happily let whales dump and they hold until they have nothing left XD.
The Lira went way down way too fast I guess, and things are getting a little better.
Hey, of course not as good as Erdogan was hoping for but he is insane, so it is not bad news that things are not as good as the governement predicted.
Looks like the hype has been slowly fading away, and I am looking at a dump in the next weeks.
Some reversal examples:
etc.
Good news everybody, there is big positive swap short, I think it is around 15% of the Daily ATR every day in our pockets.
If the price enters in the red circle here, it could be interesting to go short and hold that for a few months.
+ High RR
+ Turkey more bullish than scam monetary policies US & EU, I think investors overreacted to TR and undereacted to the US pyramid scheme verge of civil war situation
+ And also didn't realise the USD was only strong because of devaluated EURO etc
+ Price in distribution ABC top
+ Interest is very interesting, not as storng as it was a few months back if I recall, but still pretty good, probably it will get less crazy as the price drops
Tomorrow BIST100 may bounce back from support Downtrend line started in July 30th (orange) is still working neatly. Second time value touched to orange resistance on August 8th, steep downfall has been started. Now 96069 is a very important support. I think that support will stand still against the fall and bounce the value upwards. Tomorrow we can see just a little bit more downmove and than a steep move to 97000’s. Even it may break the resistance and go to 97790 - 98990 channel.
For the timing of buying and playing long, we can watch the RSI to break the downtrend line and watch the moving average line will pass thorough bollinger middle band. That would be the right time to go in. Of course we have to put our stop loss on just below the 96069 support line.
Good luck!
Turkish steel manufacturer will 4x your investment in 4 yearsDepressed Turkish Lira and the local economic indicators have been weighing in to the valuation of this fundamentally solid company. I recommend buying and holding this stock at this level in (USD terms) and holding it for at least 4 years. It will pay off if you have the tolerance to be patient.
USD/TRY SHORT OPPORTUNITYThis trade idea is a study and does not constitute a signal. Trade at your own risk.
Price is currently forming a bearish flag. I'm looking for two scenarios:
1. Price makes its way to the top of the channel, which would be the 50% fib level from swing high to swing low. I would look to sell at that point as noted.
2. Price may not make it to the top of the channel and could breakout from the flag. I would look for a continuation of sell.
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USDTRY Possible Bearish PennantPossible bearish pennant formation on this pair. Note possible trend line confluence as well as 61.8% fib level target. Initial bearish outbreak gave us approximately 200 pips. Breakout to target would mirror another 200'is pips. I do believe long term we will see higher prices, but for short term we have to take what the market gives us. This trade idea is for demonstration and educational purposes. Trade at your own risk. THIS IS NOT A SIGNAL
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