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Turkish Lira fall and Bitcoin surge correlationJust dropping a though about the recent correlation between the fall of TRY and surge in Bitcoin, that came simultaneously (within days). This can be explained by capital flowing through the black market, having bitcoin as a medium. Investors wanting to flee, converting the turkish to bitcoin then converting the bitcoin to another currency. It looks like bitcoin is now expensive for this traffic, and thinking that this outflowing capital may turn to other crypto's, such as ripple and etheruem. It will be interesting to look for other crypto's that allow such traffic and buy them, and also join the down rally of the lira at a convenient point.
by ahmedse
Disaster cooking in Turkey=> For those who believe in the bearish Turkey story, we are in the early stages of a 5th wave which we mentioned in our previous ideas... it can be seen clearly here and shows how the floodgates for the highs are wide open. From a technical perspective the 5th wave target, the first major target is 7.85 (assuming wave 5 is a 1.00 ratio in length of wave 1). Given the nature of this rally so far there is a very large chance this can extend well beyond the initial targets as far as the 2.168 extension above the highs. It is also worth noting for those following EW that the 5th wave usually marks new highs... confidence in this view will increase above the 161.8% so for those wanting a less aggressive entry you can sit tight and watch closely and good luck to those wanting to pull the trigger early for the next few Quarters in 2019. This is going to be a monstrous move and worth tracking for those interested in watching the EM collapse continue.
Long
by ridethepig
15
TIK TAK FOR USDTRY AND ELECTION Hi TRADERS As fundamental aspect ,there is no chance for TURKISH LIRA (TRY) to win this battle.there were election in turkey couple days ago and it had a massive effect on the country because the party that does belong the president( Erdogan ) lose the election who doesn't like and want that and the instability already have started. I indicate the Eliot wave clearly and you can see that we are in the fourth wave and the fifth one will come in the second half of this year. (picture below) In couple of days we will reach the 5.7 again and can have a profit on it . Please share your idea and leave a LIKE .I'd really appreciate it. Good Luck and Good Profit. ELIOT WAVE
Long
by miladniki
3
May vs Parliament, lira fevers, and sales have dropped off in USMonday was a very busy day for financial markets. It was partly due to the processing of weekend news (May's statement on Brexit, the results of the elections in Turkey), partly with new news stories. But first things first. Brexit news. May’s attempt to hold the fourth vote in a row failed so far. Monday didn’t bring anything new to the current Brexit scenario. What do we have today? Postponement Brexit until May 22, the UK is not available. Now the country must either leave the EU on April 12 or request another delay. The second option is basic. But the timing of the delay - an indefinite value. As we warned it could be a year. However, you should not relax this week. May may still “push” the vote, early parliamentary elections are possible, May’s resignation and much more is possible. So you should be “careful” with the pound. Very volatile in recent days in pairs with Turkish lira. This time the outcome was the results of the municipal elections in Turkey. Erdogan and his coalition were defeated in elections in 40 out of 81 polling stations (previously controlled by 49 municipalities), and he has lost Ankara and Istanbul. The central bank of Turkey, meanwhile, literally “burns” its foreign exchange reserves to stabilize the lira. According to data published on Friday, Turkey’s reserves have decreased by one third over the past month (!). Yesterday’s macroeconomic statistics. The most important, perhaps, were the data on retail sales in the United States. They appeared worse than analysts' expectations and showed a decline for the month (-0.2% m / m with a forecast of + 0.2% m / m). That did not bother buyers of the dollar and it continue to strengthen. However, we recommend looking for points for selling dollar on the intraday basis. Consumer inflation in the Eurozone came out slightly below the expectations of experts. At the same time, the PMI index in the Eurozone production sector was also worse than forecasts and below 50 (47.5, with the forecast of 47.6). So, it is clearly premature to expect monetary policy tightening by the ECB. Oil continued its growth yesterday. It is worth noting that the first quarter of 2019 was the best for the oil market since 2002 - the asset after it rose by 32%. This once again confirms the current market sentiment. So we continue to recommend looking for points to buy an asset on the intraday basis. In addition, we are looking for points for buying gold on the intraday basis, selling the dollar and the Russian ruble.
by Trade24Fx
How Bad is Turkey Doing?Almost six months after the rate hike which pushed Turkish interest rates to 24%, the Turkish Central Bank wants local banks to use one of two more expensive funding windows, standing at 25.5% and 27% respectively, as it suspended one-week repo auctions for an unspecified period, as it announced on March 22. The announcement came less than a year after the Central Bank said one-week repos would be its main funding tool. The Lira slumped at the announcement, dropping 2,800 pips on the day. While the Lira recovered in the next couple of days, there are still signs of weakening, as the USDTRY has been on rally since the first days of February, gaining approximately 5% year-to-date. Signs of economic deterioration can be found in the country’s data announcements, with a contraction of 3% recorded in 2018Q4. Despite registering growth for the year, mainly based on the first two quarters’ performance, and even though the Finance Minister commented that the country has left the worst behind, recent data releases have not been good: the average unemployment rate increased to 13.5% from 12.3%, Retail Sales are down 6.7% y/y, and the state budget balance recorded a 16.8 Billion deficit compared to a 5.1 Billion surplus in January. Most importantly, the March CPI release on April 3 sees expectations of a rise to 19.9%, compared to 19.67% in February. In the banking sector, things are not doing so well either. As a result of the depreciation, FX deposits increased by 45% y/y, of which 11.9% took place since the beginning of the year. This increase is due to have caused a further depreciation of the Lira, especially considering that resident deposits in TRY are declining. The depreciation caused a major part of the 34% increase in FX loans, while loans in TRY increased marginally. Non-performing loans are also up 39%, reaching 5.3% of total loans, compared to 3.9% a year ago for Deposit Banks. As commented back in August, the Turkish crisis reflects endemic factors, the first being the country’s high dependence on external financing, which appears to have been waning as foreign investors are either pulling out or rethinking investments in the country. This became evident last week as the Central Bank’s international reserves declined by $6.3 billion, to $28.5 billion, or $2.5 billion more than the expected foreign debt repayments, hinting that these funds may have been used to stabilize the currency. As Black Monday showed, forcing the Bank of England to learn fast and the hard way, Central Banks cannot go against the market for a long time. Thus, it is not at all surprising that investment banks such as JP Morgan set the target for the Turkish Lira at 5.90 stating that the pace of FX reserve reductions will be unsustainable. The second endemic factor is none other than the political situation. Recep Tayyip Erdogan is running the country with an iron fist, going as far as probing JP Morgan for its statements, and warning other investors against predicting that the Lira would weaken. Municipal elections on Sunday could turn the tables on Erdogan, who hopes for a win which will allow him to deal more with restoring foreign confidence. However, Erdogan’s usually arrogant stance has put more pressure on the country, with the CDS on the 5-year bond rising to more than 460 bps, a 50% increase from mid-March. In a nutshell, all of the above continue to weigh negatively on the economy, with the government likely to increase spending in order to prevent further deterioration. However, given that the economic situation in Turkey is more linked to political developments than ever, it would take a big turn in country’s approach to foreigners in order to satisfy the markets. Technically, USDTRY just moved past its 200DMA at 5.47 and is trading north of the weak 5.484 Resistance point. Strong Resistance is at 5.60 (Fib. 23.6%), with the next coming at 5.88 (Fib. 38.2%), close to the JP Morgan level of 5.90. Indicators are also showing signs of a rise, as Stochastics appear to have bottomed. Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Long
by HotForex
3
USD/TRY Technical Analysis since I was a kid. What is the next?No one has a crystal ball for the Forex market, but what we do have to look at is history. Although past performance does not guarantee future results, when it comes to the Turkish Lira’s current situation, history shows some alarming parallels. The patterns do repeat themselves -- and with good reason. The stock/ Forex market is governed by a set of two principles: supply and demand ; and fear and greed. Both are based on human nature, and human nature doesn't change. In a bear market, all stocks are taken down. Greed gives way to fear, and investors can't sell fast enough. But the smart money sees value in the best stocks and will begin accumulating shares, bidding these stocks up. So, when the market hits bottom, some of these stocks will have already built bases and are back near highs. They get ready to break out and rush to new highs, leading the way once a new bull market begins. And these bases have certain characteristics that show up repeatedly in market cycle after market cycle If you asked 10 people about their strategy you will find one trader among each 10 people. 9 out of each 10 people become traders then end up losing money after few month, weeks or even days. The only person who keeps making money from the stock / Forex market is the smart trader and not the gambler . If you want to make money from the stock market then you must shift your mindset to become more of an trader / investor than a gambler. Gambler might make some profit on the short or even the medium term but sooner or later they end up with losses. Let's start our analysis; After the economic crisis in Turkey ( in Feb 2001 ) , USD / TRY parity was almost stable between 1.3 and 1.6 for 10 years!!! It was not the best investment decision at this time after taking the huge profit! It was 950% up from 1988 to 2002 ! The breaking point was when I decided to leave the country, I am not joking at all. Look at chart. :) One month after I left my hometown, It was a general election in Turkey. Turkey's 17th general election was held on 12 June 2011. Justice and Development Party re-elected with 49.8 % of the vote. And, TRY lost the game against Dollar again. So, How can you understand that it was the best time to buy as a long investor? The first thing I would say is always bet less than 5 percent of your money on any one idea. That way you can be wrong more than twenty times; it will take you a long time to lose your money. I would emphasize that the 5 percent applies to one idea. If you take a long position in two different related grain markets, that is still one idea. The next thing I would advise is to always use stops. I mean actually put them in, because that commits you to get out at a certain point. Pick the weekly chart and look at the chart carefully. 1 ) The 10 years resistance level is broken 2 ) Volume was getting increasing 3 ) MA 50 passed MA 100 4 ) The candle was above the uptrend-line 5 ) The candle was above MA 100 Since May 2011, The candle was always above MA 100. The last time the candle touched MA 100 was in Feb 2013. OK, got it. So, When is the best time to convert TRY to USD for a long time? Be specific. 1 ) When the candle touch MA 100 ( Last time was 6 years ago ) 2 ) When the candle touch MA 50 ( It touched at least once last 17 years, except 2 years - 2015 and 2018 ) More specific? 4.85 and 5.22 will be the next best areas if it drops. If not? Watch out MA 50. Since Nov 2018, The candle was first time above MA 20 , It is a bullish setup for Dollar. Sorry for TRY! USD is super strong as long as it is above MA 20. Today it’s not enough for you to just work and earn a salary. To do the things you want to do, go the places you want to go, and have the things you want to have in your life, you absolutely must save and invest intelligently. The income from your investments and the net gains you can make will let your each your goals and provide real security. No one can hold you back but yourself. What is the USD to TRY exchange rate today? The USD/TRY Forex rate is 5.4 today. Will Dollar to Turkish Lira exchange rate grow / rise / go up? Yes. The USD/TRY exchange rate can go up from 5.442 to 6.42 in 2019. Is it profitable to invest in USD/TRY Forex pair? Yes. The long-term earning potential is +18% in one year. Argentine peso JUST HIT the ATL again vs USD dollar THIS WEEK. Last 20 years, Their historical graphics have been identical. Dont surprise if USD / TRY hit 6.42 again. ( All-time highs near 7.24 on August 13, 2018 ) To be successful you always have to be one step ahead of everyone else. **You are an investor / trader, not someone who can predict the future. Base your decisions on real facts and analysis rather than risky, speculative forecasts. ***Nothing shared or published by me constitutes an investment recommendation, nor should any data or content provided by me be relied upon for any investment activities. I strongly recommends that you perform your own independent research and/or speak with a qualified investment professional before making any financial decisions.This is not trading advice, and should be used for educational purposes. Do not invest what you cannot afford to lose.
Long
by CryptoEngineering
TOPSY-TURVY TURKEY? $TURInteresting to note that despite the nice gains Turkish equities saw in January 2019 (+15.7%) to make up for December 2018 (-6.87%), the asset class has experienced some nasty losses in February (-3.63%) and March (-4.36% so far) - all of which are quickly eroding all YTD gains. Its the only EM market to have suffered such losses so far (rivaling that of South Africa). To add insult to injury, it appears that Turkish equities have had great difficult trying to break through its 50-Day EMA as well, indicating global equity investors are loosing faith in Turkish equities. To complicate matters even further, the Turkisk Lira (USD/TRY) has been down 3.46% against the US Dollar so far in 2019, putting further stress on the currency. In continuation from last year, it may mean that markets are trying to tell us something about the health of the Turkish economy for 2019. As global investors continue to shed Turkish assets throughout 2019, this is one space investors should be very wary of investing in over the next little while. We recommend caution against Turkish assets.
NASDAQ:TURShort
by EconomicsGlobal
TOPSY-TURVY TURKEY? $TUR $TRYUSDInteresting to note that despite the nice gains Turkish equities saw in January 2019 (+15.7%) to make up for December 2018 (-6.87%), the asset class has experienced some nasty losses in February (-3.63%) and March (-4.36% so far) - all of which are quickly eroding all YTD gains. Its the only EM market to have suffered such losses so far (rivaling that of South Africa). To add insult to injury, it appears that Turkish equities have had great difficult trying to break through its 50-Day EMA as well, indicating global equity investors are loosing faith in Turkish equities. To complicate matters even further, the Turkisk Lira (USD/TRY) has been down 3.46% against the US Dollar so far in 2019, putting further stress on the currency. In continuation from last year, it may mean that markets are trying to tell us something about the health of the Turkish economy for 2019. As global investors continue to shed Turkish assets throughout 2019, this is one space investors should be very wary of investing in over the next little while. We recommend caution against Turkish assets.
Short
by EconomicsGlobal
I am affraid it is time to short the Turkish LiraThis trade is not part of my usual price action trading strategy. It is longer-term play based on the Ichimokucloud technicals (kumo turning bullish on eurtry and chikou broke past prices), but also the fundamentals. As the new year has come, prices of essential things like energy and water have doubled for my family living in Turkey. Other bills for the new year still need to come in but are expected to show the same increases. This was to be expected as Turkey has financed almost all energy infrastructure with foreign (USD) debt and USD interest rates are rising. It is mathematically impossible to keep energy rates as low as they were, as total national energy revenues hardly covered interest payments on these foreign loans. As energy prices will rise all other prices will have to rise eventually. If Turkey is to remain competitive as an exporter then in the short term (next half year to year) the TRY will need to depreciate. The down-side is that it will make foreign debt even heavier. It is a tough choice, but I think the powers that be rather have higher inflation of which they can control the reporting of the numbers to the people. Inflation will erode purchasing power, but also all the consumer debt Turkish people have taken on in the form of Taksit (paying in installments). The subsequent devaluation of the TRY will keep the economy going keeping nominal growth figures presentable. There will be no actual growth, but this will not be visible immediately to the man in the street. The devaluation of the Turkish Lira can also be explained as a plot by the West to stop Turkey in its growth. Rich Turks move out of cash into hard assets such as land and real estate fulling the bubble even more. Smart Turks will buy Gold and Silver as holding other currencies then the Turkish Lira has already been frowned upon. So, as it turns out the same is happening in Turkey as is happening all over the world. The rich will get richer as they move into real assets, the poor will get poorer as everything gets more expensive. OK, this has been a pretty negative few on the situation. Honestly, I hope it will not play out. For a more positive outlook, I suggest the following reports by the state-owned TRT World news channel: www.youtube.com www.youtube.com I am hopeful for the long-term outlook for Turkey, knowing the resilience of the Turks (something we have lost here in the west i.m.h.o.) and the fact that Turkey and the Turks have always have had an appreciation for and understanding of real Money in the form of Gold and Silver.
Long
by dave25981155
3hour deathcross turkey appears!This turkey must think now that its a couple months after thanksgiving that its safe to roam the charts out in the open...however, when a deathcross turkey appears it typically tends to bring hungry bears soon after it. in 10 minutes from now we should see the 3 hour death cross occur on btc...on xrp when the 3 hour death cross occurred recently it coincided with a decent bearishbreakdown so that could very likely happen here too with btc....btc will now have death crosses on the 1hr, 2hr, 3hr and 1 day charts....the 4hr charts trajectory suggests a 4hr death cross by January 18th currently and likely sooner if we see further bearish priceaction soon...this confluence across most major timeframes suggest the current bearflag has a much higher probability of breaking downward instead of an inverted bart...but as always its best to be prepared for both outcomes. thanks for reading and good luck! gobble gobble!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by DrDovetail
2
Turkish Lira - Devaluation goes onThe devaluation of the Turkish (new) lira continues to the fullest and shows how strong a current wave 3 is within the impulse wave. The confidence of the own population in the monetary policy decreases more and more and even interest rates on 2-year government bonds of just under 20% and 17% on 10-year government bonds as a foreign investor do not compensate for the losses caused by the devaluation. I expect a further devaluation by at least 20% in the range 5.90 lira for 1 US-Dollar before a short relaxation could start, not must. Best regards Stefan Bode Invest money! Interest or dividend? Stocks or bonds? What are convertible bonds? Real estate or commodities?
Long
by StefanBode
8