Turkey
TUPRS Short idea. Make gains on your crypto playing real marketsThis is setting up for a nice short play. We have learned to play these markets by playing crypto and while nothing is happening with that at the moment we can play real markets such as forex, stocks and indices. These things move every weekday. Tuprs is a Petrol company, they buy oil and make products such as oil for your car, gas for heating and petrol. Looking at the chart on a big timeframe you can see divergence. This says we are due a correction. Just going by the chart. Now you look at new and I don't care too much about that but you see that Saudi journalist that got killed in Turkey. They are starting a row with Saudi and where does most of the worlds oil come from? All it takes is for them to get pissed with all the bad attention going there way, raise prices by slowing production and make companies like these prices rise/profits fall.
A 25$ drop with margin? Yes please!
Looking at lower times to get a short. My short from $133 was stopped out yesterday but it has not discouraged me. I will look to go again. From $135 to $140 with a stop of $145.
So if you are a crypto holder, ETH, BTC or DASH you can make some gains while not worrying about the crypto market by playing real markets like this one. So if you change your margin to 100x you can get 10/1 on this which I think is safe, you can go 500/1 which would be 50/1 on this but lets not be greedy. This is what I think will happen over the coming weeks. Just by the chart pattern the news will come to fit this, its just how it is.
Look for it to pull back in a bear flag pattern and sell at either the top or when it breaks the bottom of it.
You can play this and many other things at simplefx.com (my referral link) you can deposit it crypto. If you do a search of them you will see some SCAM alert things about them from the BCH moon last year. But you wont find anything about the other products. So don't use these for crypto you have others for that but they are okay for real markets.
So I say again, if you are a hodler, forget crypto while its doing nothing and start branching out. You have been learning the last year or so, start putting that knowledge to work where others are not thinking about.
APPL too all heading for falls. These work the same as crypto, you can profit off of these things where the news and things will have you think you need a finance college degree to understand this stuff. Its just chart patterns and trends like crypto. And this product is heading for a correction. The news will come to fit the pattern, its how it works.
USD/TRY potential LongThis potential Long entry point in the chart is based on multiple technical and fundamental confluences, most of which i'm not going to give out
Note that FX markets and Turkish lira movement is based on fundamental information as any breakout of technical levels happens for fundamental reasons so I highly advise you to be unbiased and watch topic related news and periodical economic releases.
My stance (long/short/TP/SL/entry point) might change anytime if some new crucial info would come out.
Note that Turkey has highest USD denominated corporate debt burden among emerging market countries, with maturities sharply rising from 2019 and peaking in 2022. Meaning any near/medium term USD strength will have negative Lira effect as USD strength will complicate Turkish foreign debt repayment and will have negative pressure on Lira (USD/TRY strength)
Stance of TCMB on any potential Lira weakness will be interesting to see as well as FED tightening
Greek philosopher Plato once said "Opinion is the medium between knowledge and ignorance"
Don't ignore anything and do your own research thoroughly before you commit any capital.
You can make money pretty quick in FX markets but you can lose them faster than anyone
USDTRY: Daily swing trade opportunityWe have a nice swing trade op in this pair, go long at market, stop loss should be placed below the recent low.
I think the pair has room to rally back to resistance (see red line on chart). Linear regression and speed lines help us, along with oscillators and bar by bar analysis, as well as the use of RgMov, to determine the trend and where trend following or short term reversal opportunities arise. I'd say the odds of success here are big, but given the tight stop I wouldn't risk a full unit (your maximum risk per trade) but rather risk 1/4 of it for now.
The same signal is active in the $EURTRY pair, but since I'm trading the $EURUSD pair separately, I'm only focusing on $USDTRY for now.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
HALKBANK HEAD AND SHOULDERS BOTTOMS Price may down to draw right shoulder. Breakout should be waited for the confirmation
$TRY Find Bottom?Turkey Lira find bottom against US Dollar now?
President Erdogan doing everything to hold up the economy bully from US Government under Trump administrations. I think If this effort holds up we're praying that their country getting better, because their role is quite significant in Middle-East countries for muslim community all over the world. Turkey will be one of many nations that really care about muslim community and that's why they receive mass rounding from their enemies. We should fight and pray together.
USDTRY - Short-Term Pressure Down below 6.50The markets will be relaxed on Turkey so long as we remain below the 6.50 level. Until that level is broken, short-term bears hold the upper hand and EM stress is likely to be contained.
USDTRY - Relaxation ahead of Central Bank MeetingThe USDTRY is relaxing a tad, and the short-term bias has turned south for the first time in weeks. The Turkish Central Bank meets this week but so long as Erdogan continues with his current political stance (adversarial stance vs. Western Countries) there is little hope for the Try.
Take note of the key levels.
USD May Start Short Term Bearish Rally After ATHI am expecting drop between 5.20 - 5.40 due to Turkish Government's precautions against USD. 5.20 - 5.40 is safe zone to buy.
Also when technically analysed, it can be seen that there is a rising wedge, which notifies bearish trend.
Not a trading advice.
usdtry still long itll 8.20 ?there is big risk of try because fbo retracement has worked at the 7,20 and it gived effect of fibonacci retracement turn backs to fbo 38,2 back which level is 5,60's , and got enought support there and became 6,39 again , trend shows us that the graph trend continues and dollartry long for long time til around 8,20's which next fbonacci resistance level...
USDTRY still long , dangerious for turkeythere is big risk of try because fbo retracement has worked at the 7,20 and it gived effect of fibonacci retracement turn backs to fbo 38,2 back which level is 5,60's , and got enought support there and became 6,39 again , trend shows us that the graph trend continues and dollartry long for long time til around 8,20's which next fbonacci resistance level...
EZA another shorting chance. Obvious Shooting Star and RejectionIf you still want to open shorts on $EZA now is the time.
STATE OF EUROPE!A chain is only as strong as its weakest link. Right now Italy doesn't look so good with capital flights and a weakening economy.
On the technical side of things, price had a nice reaction with the lows which happens to be the all time lows in the Italian bonds.
This is a place I'd look for longs but first , I'd need proof that buyers are still here.
The Dollar is King This chart shows a relationship that every trader who is serious with the business has to keep in mind. The dollar is king, A STRONG DOLLAR ends up WEAKENING
EMERGING MARKETS . This causes a capital flow away from them into safer dollar assets.
Right now , my game plan for the foreseeable future is to look for a short with good risk reward in the EEM as a whole , or break it down into its constituents and look for specific shorts in its holdings.
This dollar strength will also affect commodities , Stocks tied to commodities , XLE , and a myriad of other assets
Exciting times.
USD/TRY lira potential scenarioA lot of political activity happening on this pair. Technicals are quite strong, further bullish outlook if it breaks 7.
The panic is light...The panic is light. In the Turkish markets, the beginning of the coming week may bring less relief. Although at this moment it seems to be quite temporary. The exchange rate of TUR has built up a full three wave structure decline. He is currently trying to construct an ABC correction wave structure. This ABC correction wave structure can bring a few days of relaxation.
Guess who is finally joining the club of third world countries?Thanks to yet another iron hand plastic brain incompetent leader the once great power did it.
They are now heading for the club of third world countries :)
Be careful who you vote for. The best of the best is "boring".
"I will change everything" "I am strong willed" has not worked in 100.000 years yet "people" still fall for it XD
We are going to have to bail them out, and who is going to pay? The same as usual...
The USA represent 16.52% of the IMF, while europe's major economies (Germany UK France Italy) represent 16.4%. 33% for those alone.
All of this is probably not good for the west either.
www.project-syndicate.org
piie.com
Strong hand and strong will president that we all regularly see in the news forced every one to take big loans, in particular grab money from foreign countries (preferably allies), to push the economy up and make the country great again (where did I hear that again?).
Of course these idiotic policies and whole way of governing obliterated the country.
But I am not here to recommend shorting the Turkey economy or anything. I personally prefer to stay away here.
Unless you know everything about it - and even then it seems risky - there is no point getting involved.
Trading is about making plenty of small safe trades, while knowing the probabilities are in your favor.
Not about gambling.
And what says it cannot move 30% in a day again? Enjoy that slippage.
George Soros made (AND LOST) billions going against countries like this, but now it is probabily too late for the Lira.
Maybe it is all a trap and it will bounce back?
I am not touching this. No thanks.
If Turkey gets really, and I mean REALLY, abandonned (investor-wise), it could become undervalued.
On an investment perspective this might get interesting...
