The Danger ZoneBreaking through the important pivot level of R2, the USDTRY continues to rally of the back of expected interest rate hikes. President Erdogan's monetary policy comments had little dampening effect with the USDTRY skipping past the key 4.38 level. Will Turkey's Central Bank be able to manage the current levels of inflation in the short term? Trading Forex / CFDs is High Risk.
Turkish
Here we are approaching something here. Sleepy Central Banking..While our goverment officals sleeping and doing nothing the price action started a cup and handle rally..
Here we have something.
It is approaching to the target levels..
Can our officers do anything.. ? In past years we all decided they are happy about this thing..
This can be sideway but it didnt.. When past 4 price we got sure that this is a cup and handle rally..
Here all investors are alone in this cruel world.. Central banking sleeps.... So they got paid well..
God bless them with their paycheck.. They made Turkish Lira currency Worst Money In the World..
hallelujah.....
My Next Long Term Position TRYJPY LongI am slowly building a big long position in TRY/JPY pair. Turkish Lira is quite under-valuated at these levels and despite the recent strength of Japanese Yen I think in the long run JPY will weaken across the board. This is a carry trade position which will bring lot of interest while running. At 8.5% current interest rate of Turkish Lira outperform almost all peers in the world and with inflation and demographics of Turkey slowly going down I think soon we will see a major trend reversal here with significant strengthening of the Lira by more than 10-15%.
USD/TRY 4H Chart: Short term decline in progressThe US Dollar is one of the many currencies, which are gaining strength against the Turkish Lira. Although the most patterns are similar on the pairs that involve the currency of Turkey, there are minor differences.
In regards to the USD/TRY currency exchange rate the most notable difference is the fact that the pair is a the moment trading in a junior channel down pattern. The pattern is set to guide the currency pair down to the support of the most dominant pattern near the 3.90 mark.
Afterwards a continuation of the long term surge can be expected.
EUR/TRY 4H Chart: Euro at new heightsThe common European currency continues to book new high levels against the Turkish Lira. On all timeframes and scales the currency pair is surging and it has been like that for a few years.
In the short term the pair is set to continue the surge. It should occur after the currency exchange rate finds support in a combined support cluster near the 4.66 mark.
Afterwards the Euro will have the range up to the 4.7930 level free from resistance against the Turkish currency.
USDTRY USD Turkish Lira Short set-up with big potentialUSDTRY US Dollar Turkish Lira
This is striking impulse wave: and when it breaks down it's a fabulous short
Cannot short this whilst within the power of this massive
impulse wave. But once it falls out of the parallel it becomes
a massive short - once broken, look for any retest of the
parallel from the underside once broken as a second shorting
opportunity with stops above the parallel. This break down
could be imminent...worth watching this one. It could come
all the way back down to the longer term trend line, given enough time.
It will likely form a trend as it does so...draw in the parallels as it emerges and stay short
whilst it's trapped within them. Good one, looks like, even if a little exotic.
A trend is a trend, wherever it originates!
usdtry turkish lira big shortExpecting USDTRY to complete C at around 3.39-30 and then start a new rally heading to 4.50++ We are at about the end of B. This will work as long as it doesnt go over last high at 3.9421. If it does, this analysis will be cancelled and will look for a new high at 4.25-30
Turkish Lira gave a devaluation signal on the monthly chartTom Demark count gave a green 2 on the monthly chart. This is a clear buy signal. This happens very rare on a monthly level. Green 2 on a monthly chart means we will have up to 7 months of uptrend.
Weekly and daily charts confirms this as well.
Previous ATH was 3.94320, I expect this will be broken soon, as double tops near ATH are unicorns.
In the upcoming weeks or months a major devaluation of Turkish Lira is possible.