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Turkisheconomy

When Do Breaking ATMs Signal More Than Just Technical Failure?In a fascinating twist of economic irony, Turkey's banking system faces a crisis not from a shortage of money, but from an overwhelming abundance of near-worthless banknotes. This peculiar situation, where ATMs physically break down from dispensing too many low-value bills, serves as a powerful metaphor for the broader economic challenges facing emerging markets in an era of hyperinflation. The numbers tell an extraordinary tale: a 700% currency depreciation since 2018, 80% of circulating notes being the highest denomination available, and a stark disparity between official inflation rates of 49% and independent estimates of 89%. Yet perhaps most intriguing is the government's reluctance to print larger denominations – a psychological barrier rooted in the traumatic memory of million-lira notes from the 1990s. This resistance to adaptation, despite the obvious operational strain on the banking system, raises profound questions about the role of political psychology in economic policy-making. What emerges is a complex narrative about the intersection of technological capacity, monetary policy, and human psychology. As Turkish banks spend entire days counting money for simple transactions and regulators continuously delay implementing hyperinflationary accounting standards, we witness a unique case study of how modern financial systems can be overwhelmed not by sophisticated cyber threats or market crashes, but by the sheer physical weight of devalued currency. This situation challenges our traditional understanding of banking crises and forces us to reconsider the practical limits of monetary policy in an increasingly digital age.
Long
by signalmastermind
2
How to be careful against manipulation while trading Forex?It all started on the morning of December 20, 2021. The "Up Tick Rule" was implemented for one day in the stock market. The Up Tick Rule is an application that reduces the declines caused by short selling in stocks and is implemented to limit selling pressure. The implementation method of this rule is that even though the capital market instrument subject to short selling can be realized at a price higher than the last transaction price, the short selling transaction can also be made at the last transaction price level if the last transaction price of the capital market instrument subject to short selling is higher than the previous price. Thus, with the implementation of this rule, the possibility of the dollar falling is minimized. The dollar is raised up to 18.36 Turkish liras. At 18:15, after the daytime market closed, the manipulation began. On the evening of December 20, 2021, the Central Bank started selling dollars through public banks at very low exchange rates. The aim was to transfer capital to some of the supporters by selling the Central Bank's dollars for less than 10 Turkish liras, but the dollar only fell to 12.49 Turkish liras. Because an investor who was unaware of this operation bought $1.5 billion at an average rate of 12.50 Turkish liras. Since the Central Bank had exhausted its selling limit for that day, it couldn't sell any more dollars. Thus, the operation remained incomplete. With the panic that started in the market, BIST presented an announcement for approval at 09:25 on the morning of December 21, 2021. A trap was set for stock market investors to complete the operation. At 09:46 (16 minutes after the opening of the stock exchange), the approval of the announcement was published on KAP. In this announcement, the limit for selling dollars at a discount of up to 10% was increased to 80%. However, during the 16-minute period before investors learned of this decision, the Central Bank's dollar reserves, which had started selling at 18.22 Turkish liras on the new day, had already been sold down to the level of 3.65 Turkish liras. (Although this level of 3.65 Turkish liras may not be visible on the Tradingview chart, data is available on applications such as Bloomberg Terminal and Matriks.) The identity of those who had prior knowledge and purchased dollars at almost no cost is unknown. The Central Bank has been robbed, and those who were aware of the operation have made large profits, while others have lost their money and assets. Instead of protecting investors against manipulation, it looks like SPK and BIST have facilitated the setting of traps for them. The most basic thing we can do to protect ourselves against such manipulations is to be vigilant when buying and selling currencies of countries with low credibility.
by YavuzAkbay
1
A Look at the Turkish EconomyAs we all know, the increase in foreign currency increases the general product prices extraordinarily, as it increases the input costs. The rise of the foreign exchange is a phenomenon that a country does not want. Every country aims to keep the exchange rate stable. But for some reason, Turkey came out of these countries. As can be seen from this chart, from 2006 to 2020, Turkey continued to print money with a certain pattern. This is an acceptable factor for each country under certain conditions. The money supply, which increased with a trend of 23 degrees, started to rise more sharply after 2020, and especially after March 2021, the trend reached 53 degrees. This trend change is a clear indication of how fast the printing of money is. Therefore, as the money supply increases, there is a natural depreciation of the currency (Orange line shows the rising Dollar against the Turkish Lira). In the same period, interest rates were reduced, as can be seen from the black line. By lowering interest rates, what a country normally aims at is to create consumption demand by reducing borrowing costs. Therefore, the demand for consumption has increased, and with it, demand inflation has arisen. Meanwhile, printing money decreased the value of the Turkish Lira (the exchange rate rose), which increased the input costs. The increase in input costs was reflected in the sales prices of the products. Therefore, inflation was fueled by both demand and foreign currency. It will be impossible to know why the Turkish government did this, why it deliberately ignited inflation, which no economist can explain. If you have an idea, you can write it in the comments. Thanks.
ECONOMICS:TRM2
by YavuzAkbay
1
USD/TRY Turkish Lira UpdateThis week has seen the USD/Turkish Lira exchange rate drop from a high of 18.25 TL per Dollar to a close at 11 TL per Dollar. In my previous idea published in January 2021. The concepts I laid out in that idea are still valid. The curve I drew still holds intact. RSI is still rising in the parallel channel. The recent spike has seen RSI reach even higher value than ever before. I still hold that this trend will continue until 2026 where the exchange rate will be 18 TL for the Dollar; and I'm talking about the normal stable every day rate, not a temporary spike like in the past month. Another thing to notice is the volatility. The previous spike in January 2017 reached a high that is 30% above my curve. The spike in September 2018 reached a high 71% above the curve, and lastly, the December 2021 spike reached a high 104% above the curve. As we go further in this trend, the spikes will be more volatile and we could see the rate triple in a matter of weeks, only to come back down the following week. This instability severely disturbs daily transactions both domestic and international which will push foreign investors away from Turkey. Already many investors are prepared to slowly pull out their capital as they say this instability occur right at the time of closing the books at the end of the year. Turks are already pricing their goods in Dollar and Euro having little confidence in the value of the TL. These factors will only worsen the situation in the coming years, and their effect is not seen immediately, but over months and years. Without a fundamental policy change, this trend will continue. Trust in the Turkish Central Bank is dropping as hard as the currency is. Throughout 2020, The Turkish government has been the biggest buyer of gold in the world, but they have been also the biggest seller of gold in the same year. The Central Bank is confused as is actually trading gold like an uncertain irresponsible child. The responsible thing to do is to peg the currency to either the Dollar, the Euro, Gold or even better, Bitcoin. It will cause a shock, but it will also bring security, stability and prosperity in less than a decade. You can follow this chart here . Follow me for updates on this chart and others.
Long
by TechNerdOmar
12