The USDTRY pair has been trading within a 6-month Channel Up and the price is now very close to the pattern's top (Higher Highs trend-line). Technically this is were a rejection should take place to reset the market at the pattern's bottom (Higher Lows trend-line), below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Our Target is 33.4000, which is just above the 0.5 Fibonacci...
Starting September 2nd I'll be on holiday in Turkey for 2 weeks. I've managed to time this holiday pretty perfect, looking at the charts we can see it's been in a steep UP TREND since 2nd of July, although it could be argued it happened after the RANGE BREAKOUT in May. GBP is now extremely strong to TRY, meaning we get more TURKISH LIRA for our GREAT BRITISH...
A Shift in Carry Trades: Hedge Funds Embrace the US Dollar The once-dominant Japanese yen has historically been the preferred currency for carry trade strategies, where investors borrow low-interest-rate currencies to invest in higher-yielding ones. However, a significant shift is underway, as hedge funds increasingly turn to the US dollar as their borrowing...
The USDTRY pair has almost doubled since our last buy signal (October 27 2022, see chart below): This pair remains one of the most efficient long-term trades long-term as its inflationary uptrend remains intact. We won't turn buyers again however before a 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) test or a neutral 1W RSI (less than 50.00). Our next Target is 40.0000 (again...
It's been a while since I tracked the #usdtry pair. For comparison, you can find my past reviews below. Concerns over - high inflation rate - low interest rates compared to the sidereal inflation rate (enag) - high levels of debt - external financing needs - geopolitical tensions - high-level gov. corruption - pressure on the parity by carry trade imo the...
A quick update on the future of the Turkish Lira (TL): Interest rates will rise to the range of 30% to 35% and will remain high for the following years (possibly 2-3 years). The Turkish Central Bank will stop printing vast amounts of money, and getting loans for purchasing houses or cars will become difficult. This action will lower inflation for few years. TL...
Regional activity of Mr. Erdogan with a multiply vector of conflicts between Syria, USA, Russia and other countries borders with Turkey is a main theme for further depreciation of TRY. President Joe Biden became the first US president to officially recognize the massacre of Armenians under the Ottoman Empire as a genocide. This is a new risk. Not legal and...
Well, Keeping it simple as always (or I try at least) Here's another one of my ideas. Long on the Turkish lira (another crazy idea of mine) First Target 18$ Second Target 13$ I just want to be as transparent as possible with you guys. Right or wrong this is another investment of mine. I see on the long term (1 year - 2 years ) a regain of field from the...
This is just an experimental analysis. NFA Target 1 : 14,0 - 15,0 Target 2 : 19,0 - 20,0 Targer 3: 24
To be honest it already feels ridiculous to receive 30 TRY for 1 euro! It just doesn't feel right, sorry. This time I will talk no politics, no Erdogan, no West or East (Russia lost although they won so Turkey always goes with the West in the end anyways), no central bank plans etc This time we talk chart only: I was expecting maybe stop at 31TRY/1EUR, finally...
Hello Traders, I'd like to take a moment to discuss a rather peculiar scenario unfolding in the world of Forex, centered on the Turkish Lira (TRY). It's a tale of two paradises – a seeming conundrum where what seems like a hardship for one can be a fortune for another. 🔥 Hell for Turkish people: Firstly, let's understand the current state of Turkey's economy....
Could the upcoming Turkey election effect how their currency lira performs against western currencies including the USD? Any potential new leader may be able to get the lira to be much stronger then over the last few years. As for today, the USD against the Turkish lira is the only currency which seems to be somewhat strong in the world of Oanda forex. When my...
It's been a while since I tracked the #usdtry pair. You can also find my past reviews below for comparison. Concerns over - high inflation, - high levels of debt - external financing needs - geopolitical tensions - a looser monetary policy stance to support economic growth - high-level gov. corruption - pressure on the parity imo parity will be stabilized around 33-46
It all started on the morning of December 20, 2021. The "Up Tick Rule" was implemented for one day in the stock market. The Up Tick Rule is an application that reduces the declines caused by short selling in stocks and is implemented to limit selling pressure. The implementation method of this rule is that even though the capital market instrument subject to...
As we all know, the increase in foreign currency increases the general product prices extraordinarily, as it increases the input costs. The rise of the foreign exchange is a phenomenon that a country does not want. Every country aims to keep the exchange rate stable. But for some reason, Turkey came out of these countries. As can be seen from this chart, from...
Turkish Lira at 20 and our trade is now complete: Perfect (re) entry at 15,8 before that Breakout: and it was a 'perfect entry': Let's not forget the also perfect first entry here: www.tradingview.com Trading wise i must admit, these EURTRY trades have been fantastic for us but at the same time it's a worrying sutuation for Turkish people (maybe not so much...
THY have a huge bearish divergence. I think it will hit around 16-18 Turkish Lira. Cycle is done, it has to retrace to gain power to another bull-run.
The USDTRY pair has been rising steadily since the December 2021 drop. The RSI on the 1W time-frame has formed a pattern that since 2013 at least, paved the way to very aggressive pumps. Technically the next wave is about to start and shouldn't retrace before it hits the RSI's Higher Highs trend-line. Based on the pair's Higher Highs trend-line, the next top can...