S&P 500 - Deep Analysis and Trade PlanHey traders,
I figured I'd share my ideas for swinging and day trading the SP500 over the next several days / weeks. I'm using the continues SP500 futures chart but this analysis should work on SPX and SPY as well with few (if any) differences.
I'm going to do my best to make this post valuable even when this market structure is rendered broken by price action. My goal is to make this educational and hope to help people learn how to think their way through a trade, from planning to execution.
MARKET STRUCTURE (Daily Chart)
The market has been trapped beneath 4327 for quite some time and have, thus far, respected a high and a low of the range. Recent consolidation in the range during the last leg down has formed a small supply zone which could prevent prices from revising the high in the current structure.
On the bullish side of the coin, a demand zone dating back to the front side of the trend has been propping up prices. Over the last several days this demand zone has been successful in holding up the current price action, forming a reliable support in which to day trade from.
PRICE CAN ONLY DO ONE OF TWO THINGS
No need to overcomplicate the analysis at this stage. We just need to recognize that it can only do one of two things. I can respect support and move up or it can violate it and move down.
So far we have seen consolidation on support and no real burst of aggression from buyers, making one wonder if there are enough buyers to hold off the sellers at this level. It's important not to predict but one could make the argument that fighting for position at this level is worthwhile, whether bullish or bearish.
My thoughts are that, based on this chart and information, it is too early to execute a trade and pick a side. I'm rather conservative in these scenarios and would prefer to see additional confirmation of a side beginning to dominate the other.
IDENTIFYING THE OPPORTUNITY ZONES
A couple of parallel channels set to the recent highs and lows of this consolidation makes for an easy way to identify zones of opportunity and further develop trading plans.
I say "plans" because I am planning for both bearish and bullish movements for a swing trade as well as interactions with these levels for day trading opportunities. It is prudent to react to what the market is doing rather than trying to impose our individual will upon it. If it goes up, we trade up. If it goes down, we trade down. No reason to overcomplicate things.
At this stage we are simply looking for price to show us a sign of some form between the pair of orange lines at the top or bottom with no real preference. In lower time frames this could be useful for day trading and overnight trading setups. We are also looking for price to make it's move to the top or bottom side of the extremes, preferably with rising volume, spiking ATR, or a retest of that support or resistance level without breaking it.
HUNTING FOR A TRIGGER
These are some examples of potential setups and triggers on the hourly chart. Of course this is not an exhaustive list of possibilities but just an idea of some things we might see again at these extremes if the market were to continue to bounce around in this range.
Our plan, should the market stay inside of this range, is simply buy low, sell high or short high and cover low.
IT WILL BREAK OUT....
Eventually. When it does we should be looking at our volume, oscillators, ATR, or whatever your favorite flavor of confirmation is. Personally, I watch the ATR, RSI, and price action. I want to see a retest of old resistance become support or old support become resistance. When that happens, I look for my entry, trigger, and targets.
DIRECTIONAL BIAS - STICK A FORK IN IT
Now I'm ready to pick a side to lean toward. Team Bulls or Team Bears?
In my opinion there is no finer tool in all of technical analysis for establishing directional bias and studying the geometry of the market than the Andrews Pitchfork.
In the above picture we can see that the market has very clearly respected the top and center of the pitchfork. Based upon that, I would expect the market to continue to respect these levels until proven otherwise.
BEARISH TRADE PLAN
Our two parallel channels from the daily chart conveniently bracket the low of a recent swing in the market and intersect with the upper boundary of the pitchfork. If the market is kind to me, I'll get a nice trigger or bearish pattern at or near this area. From there, trade management would be relatively simple. Target the recent low and potentially beyond or exit the trade should the market fail to hold a down trending structure. My first price target would be the recent lows and the second price target would be the centerline of the pitchfork.
My thesis of a bearish move in the market is due to several factors:
1) There is a prevailing down trend prior to this range forming.
2) The market has shown weakness when approaching the upper extreme
3) The economic data continues to be unimpressive and talk of recession is rising
4) The geometry of the pitchfork has been respected and it is pointing down
5) Recent surging volume led to increasing prices, but prices have failed to break higher with any significant follow-through.
In my opinion this shows weakness in the market.
BULLISH TRADE PLAN
Sometimes we just do not get the market or analysis right. Sometimes we do everything right and the market does what it wants anyway. It's important to understand that our analysis does not control the markets and therefore we need a backup plan.
I see two possible scenarios based upon the data we have on this chart.
1) Prices pullback to the bullish opportunity zone and respect / confirm support and proceed upward
2) Prices move up from current levels and break out of this geometry of the market, push through the center of our parallel channels, and test the upper extreme.
In either scenario I would need a very clear trigger and indication of buying pressure. I personally feel as though this would be counter to the dominant trend and has a bit lower probability of success than our bearish theory. We can, however, make money on a bullish move and should be prepared to do so if the market dictates that prices should move up from here.
Surging volume on support recently gives indication that there could be strong buying pressure at the recent lows and that sellers might not have the power to push through the area. Joining these buyers could lead to entry early in a trend reversal, if even in the short or intermediate term.
CONCLUSION
Hopefully you enjoyed this read and my take on the current SP500 chart. I also hope that you find value in this post.
Please remember that this is not financial or trading advice but rather an attempt at sharing my thought process with the community.
Good luck with your trading!
Tutorial
How The 80/20 Rule Applies To Forex TradingToday's article will be entirely devoted to reflections on such wonderful topics as: psychology, risk, workspace management, and analysis.
20% effort gives 80% results
Many people probably heard about Pareto's law, the so-called 20/80 principle.
Whether you agree with it or not, let us project this statement to the approach to trading as a technical analyst. What is the 80% result obtained with 20% of effort? I believe that only with the right psychological approach and attitude trading will give 80% of the result with 20% of effort.
Hence the simple truth even a child can be taught to trade. But it doesn't mean that he/she will bring a stable and guaranteed income in the long run. I mean technically trading is a very simple thing, if not complicated.
Is it difficult to find the trends according to Dow's theory? Find the right patterns on the chart according to Steve Nisson or price action methods? To delve into Elliot waves or swings to apply them in practice? All these things may scare only a beginner trader.
But this article is not for beginners, it is for people who have some experience in trading. Thus, the bare technical aspect gives only 20% of the result and the rest will fall on your shoulders.
The obstacle to successful trading is the trader
We all can agree that the main obstacle to successful trading is the trader himself. You can distinguish an implication in favor of algorithmic trading, and a bold disadvantage in the manual trading. I would not say so, for the simple reason that it is easier for a trader to adjust to the current market situation and the process that is not included in the logic of the algorithm.
But for this it must be developed a sixth sense: intuition, NOT your technical skills. By intuition and a sixth sense I mean, of course, only experience and knowledge, embedded at a subconscious level, rather than trading at random.
And what are non-technical skills? It is clear that these are such basics as risk and money management, because this is the root cause of all troubles and misfortunes for a trader if he doesn't follow them.
Often, during active trading, most traders have words like discipline, willpower in their minds and of course excitement, greed and pursuit of money. These are the exceptional, aggressive emotions that lead to the draining. I can't teach you how to deal with it, everyone's character is different, but you need to break down these emotions.
It's impossible to make a million in a month, six or a year out of a thousand. No matter how you look at it, if you break the rules your MM you’ll get a guaranteed loss. But if you work systematically and according to the rules, you can have stability and turn over a profit.
The small things we miss.
It's no secret that life consists of the little things, put together in large formations. If you leave them out, in an instant they will all pile up and collapse like a snowball at the most inopportune moment. One of these little things is the workspace.
The ergonomics of things in your room (chair, desk, device, color of curtains, view out the window) to the color of the bull candle on the chart. The little things that are subconsciously perceived every day. And it's up to you whether they will help, or vice versa, press and aggravate.
Is it possible to trade successfully when there are screaming children, an un-walked dog, or an uncomfortable chair? You're staring blankly at a poisonously colorful schedule and trying to trade. It may well be that everyone has their own view of cozy and comfortable work, but what I see in this picture is a lack of focus on all levels.
We need to remove all outside triggers so that nothing distracts from seeing the essence. Make hours of silence in the house so no one bothers you during that time.
So, here's what gets you 80% of the results: order, discipline, deliberate action, motivation. It's not as much effort as charting. It comes to the aid of a variety of types of organization and management, once you radically put order in yourself, in your life, and you will do it always and then the results of trading will noticeably improve.
EUR/USD Down may we continue...The USD continues to be favourable among other currencies during these questionable times, the Euro not looking half as weak as the pound, but I am still expecting to see new lows here this week.
Entry was taken at 0.96650 looking for 100 pips and fresh lows. Bare in mind though people, there was a huge down move on Friday. Trading early in the week would not be my best advice, sit still until the moment arrives.
I am staying away from GBP right now as we are very much in unknown territory. It will be interesting to see whether these lows can hold, however with the way the economy is going here in the UK, nothing would surprise me.
Best wishes
Jake
How To Remove Doubts in TradingHave you ever wondered why do you feel uncomfortable when you enter a trade, doubt your prediction and then look at it and realize, if you had entered, here or here, everything would have worked out, but damn, something kept you from doing it?
So, what could it be, why would there be such doubts before entering the trade?
In my opinion these doubts may be caused by the following:
▶️ The absence as such a trading system, at least some (where and under what conditions entries are made).
▶️ No trading plan, looking at which it will be easier to work before trading, there will be past examples of successful entries, which may well affect the next one.
Size of the trade. Psychologically it is easier to trade with a smaller amount risk than with a larger one.
Say, you never risk not more than 3% of your capital, but you still do not feel comfortable. You should feel comfortable with the size of the trade. For example, if you have $50 000, but $500 is too much for you and it is hard to part with it? In that case work on the minimum, which is, say $100. Gradually, once again, gradually increasing its size. You trade with $100-200 per trade, move on to $300-400 risk per trade.
When you trade with $100-200 per trade, the stake is small, you not afraid to lose this amount but when you increase the risk, then the problems begin, doubts begin to plague you.
✅ Doubt is the worst enemy of the human mind.
So how to deal with all of this?
Trade an amount that you can afford to lose comfortably, gradually increasing it as confidence grows. Sum that you are afraid to lose can lead to a lost capital, because there will be a great desire to restore the figures on the screen. There is a concept in trading - "Turtle trader" - which implies that you have to grow slowly in trading.
Believe in yourself and in your trading system.
Make notes on previous trades, where it is better to enter and where it is undesirable, history repeats itself. An important point, do not trade when you are upset about something, or just not in the mood, when you are tired. When you trade, you should not have extraneous thoughts, especially negative ones. Read a book on psychology, for instance, relax, or trade on a demo if you really want to trade.
To sum up
When you experience self-doubt, don't make the situation worse. Everyone experiences doubts. This is normal when trading in such chaotic markets. If you are a novice trader, take comfort in the fact that your doubts will subside once you have honed your trading skills and gained trading experience.
If you're an experienced trader, it may be helpful to remind yourself that everyone has slumps sometimes. You'll regain your strength if you keep trading. The key to success is to remember that insecurity usually leads to stagnation.
European Trading SessionHello everyone!
Today we continue the review of trading sessions on the forex market.
The European Trading session is next in line.
Let's get started!
The European trading session is considered the most volatile of all. The main reasons for high volatility are the coincidences of the opening of the session with the work of the Asian session, in addition, the European session closes during the opening of the American stock exchange.
It is at this time that 5 major financial platforms are operating – the exchanges of London, Frankfurt, Paris, Luxembourg and Zurich.
Trading sessions
Zurich, Frankfurt, Paris, Luxembourg are three major trading platforms that open at 2:00 New York time, while the London Stock Exchange, the main trading center, opens at 3:00.
The opening time of trading in Europe is considered to be from the beginning of work in London, since it is on the London site that 30% of all transactions are made.
The largest companies and banks enter trading on the London Stock Exchange at about 4:00 New York time, so at this time there is the greatest volatility.
Opening hours
The period of such activity lasts about 2 hours, after which the activity of traders decreases and it is lunchtime in the offices.
With the opening of trading in America at 9 o'clock, a new momentum of volatility begins in the European trading session. The activity will last about two hours, after which it will gradually fade due to the closure of the Frankfurt, Zurich, Paris and Luxembourg exchanges.
Stock Market assets
With the opening of the European session, trading begins on the largest exchanges in Europe: the London LSE, the Austrian WBAG, the Berlin, Munich and Hamburg stock Exchanges in Germany, the Irish Stock Exchange, the Italian ISE, the Spanish BM in Madrid, the Swiss SWX, the Stockholm Stock Exchange in Sweden, as well as groups of pan-European exchanges Euronext and OMX.
During the work of the largest exchanges in the European session, the fundamental European indices are traded:
Euro Stoxx is a group of indices of 600 companies of different capitalization levels located in 18 Eurozone countries.
FTSE – index of securities of the 100 largest companies traded on the London Stock Exchange
CAC 40 – Euronext Paris Blue Chip Index
DAX – index of securities of 30 companies with high capitalization of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange
IBEX 35 – blue chip index of the BM exchange
FTSE MIB – index based on quotations of 40 largest companies on ISE
OMX STKH30 – Swedish index of securities of 30 companies with the largest capitalization traded on the Stockholm Stock Exchange
SMI – stock index of the 20 most liquid companies of the Swiss Stock Exchange
The MOSBIRZHI Index is a Russian index of shares of 50 companies belonging to the blue chips of the Moscow Exchange, calculated in rubles.
RTSI is an index of shares of the 50 largest companies on the Moscow Stock Exchange, calculated in US dollars.
Currency pairs of the European trading session
During the European session, currency pairs of countries whose exchanges are active at this time have the greatest volatility.
Currency pairs with euro:
EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD, EUR/CHF, EUR/NZD, EUR/TRY, EUR/SEK, EUR/NOK, EUR/HUF
Currency pairs with the pound:
GBP/USD, GBP/AUD, GBP/BGN, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF, GBP/CZK, GBP/DKK, GBP/HKD, GBP/HUF, GBP/JPY, GBP/NOK, GBP/NZD, GBP/PLN, GBP/RON, GBP/SEK, GBP/SGD, GBP/TRY, GBP/ZAR
Swiss Franc pairs:
AUD/CHF, CAD/CHF, CHF/BGN, CHF/JPY, CHF/RON, CHF/TRY, NZD/CHF, USD/CHF
It is also necessary to pay attention to the currency pairs of the US dollar with the Swedish, Czech, Danish krona, as well as the Hungarian forint, the volatility of which also increases slightly during the European session, especially in its last hours, when the European session intersects with the American one.
Features
Intersecting with two sessions at once: the Asian and the American, the European session becomes very volatile during the hours of intersection. It is at this time that scalpers come into play, who earn on fast movements and sharp trend changes. Due to such high volatility, beginners are not advised to trade at this time or should at least be very careful, because one move in the European session can destroy all capital.
A distinctive feature of the European Session is powerful movements and rapid change of quotes.
The lion's share of movement and trends is formed when the European Trading Session comes into play. This session also features a lot of manipulations – false breakouts, probing levels and collecting stop losses.
That is why it is very important to be attentive during this session and not risk a large percentage of capital.
Conclusion
The European trading session itself is very volatile, because it is at this time that financial centers around the world turn on. However, during the intersection of sessions, volatility increases significantly, which creates large jumps and price movements.
It will be very difficult for beginners to trade at this time, because strong movements will often reach stop losses, there will be a lot of false breakouts after which they will turn around sharply.
At the same time, professional traders who are able to analyze a large amount of information and are able to make quick decisions will be able to earn a lot of money.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
Why Perfectionism is Killing Your TradingDo you have a tendency to perfectionism?
So, the biggest question is, do you have a tendency toward perfectionism?
"Perfectionists are people whose standards are very high and out of reach; they are people who are strenuous, involuntary, and unstoppable in their pursuit of an unattainable goal and who evaluate their own worth solely in terms of effectiveness and accomplishment of the task at hand."
Does this sound like you?
Perfectionists suffer from setting excessively high standards, fear of failure, procrastination, never being satisfied with their successes and can become emotionally unstable if their standards are not met, which can often be the case in trading; they fear competition, are not trainable, are meticulous in their way of thinking, being overly self-critical and intolerant of mistakes, and can also be prone to high levels of fear of possible failure.
Fear of loss, hesitation, fear of pulling the trigger, falling into extreme frustration or anger when your trading strategy fails or when you miss an entry point, or if you are extremely self-critical of your forex trading activity, can be evidence that you are prone to perfectionism.
One way to test you for a tendency toward perfectionism is to have the words "have to" in your vocabulary or thinking.
7 ways to overcome the tendency toward perfectionism
So, if you have some tendency toward perfectionism, what can you do?
1️⃣ One of the most useful things and important principles to remember is that humans are prone to make mistakes (that they are imperfect) and therefore you, as a forex trader, are also prone to make mistakes (that you are also imperfect). Following this as one of your trading beliefs, as part of your mental map, can be very helpful in that it will keep your reactions to events more realistic and less emotionally intense.
2️⃣ Since you are operating in an imperfect and uncertain environment, it is crucial for you to learn to think in terms of probabilities. Interestingly, research in behavioral finance has consistently shown that people are not so effective at drawing conclusions or thinking probabilistically, which is a skill that many people will need to develop in themselves. Mark Douglas (author of Zone Trading) writes, "every trade has a probabilistic outcome that does not preclude the possibility of loss. A shift in thinking from the concept of perfection to the concept of probability will help shape trading behaviors that improve the quality of trades and response to events.
3️⃣ Try to do your best to strive for excellence rather than obsessing over being the best; set a goal to become a good trader (but not the best in the world) and focus on it. Focus on learning and improving, including understanding, you accept mistakes and learn from them.
4️⃣ Focus on your trading process, not just the outcome. By focusing on your trading process, you fence yourself off from some of the anxiety and frustration that occurs when you are too attached to your results. Try to focus on how well you're trading, not just how much money you've made or lost.
5️⃣ Train yourself to take on the challenge of trading and find enjoyment in what you do. The process of having fun along with learning is the foundation of effectiveness. By accepting this, you will also allow yourself to look at the ups and downs of trading from a different angle, and this rethinking of the situation will give you a different perception of these events, with less frustration and emotional turmoil.
6️⃣ It is important to note that being able to see forex losses and drawdowns as learning opportunities is not self-judgmental. One of the disadvantages of the perfectionist can be his negative reaction to mistakes, missteps, and his inability to learn from them. Mistakes provide us with ample opportunities to learn and improve performance, but only when we actually perceive them as such.
7️⃣ Finally, it is important to learn to accept that your personal fortune is not your own capital that you are a worthy individual regardless of your trading performance at any given time. On a fundamental and profound level, this is a key belief for optimal human functioning, a sense of happiness, and successful trading.
✅ Conclusion
You won't win every trade. And that's perfectly normal. Remember that it's inherently human to make mistakes in an uncertain environment a world of perfection is out of reach; we live in a probabilistic world.
HOW OFTEN DO YOU NEED TO CHECK THE CHARTS?How many times have you looked at the chart trying to figure out if this signal is worth taking or not? And how many times have you made a profit in such cases?
You don't have to look for good trades on purpose. You just wait and react.
How often you should check the chart in forex trading, as well as the reasons why our brain sees trades where there are not there (and what to do about it), we're going to talk about today.
There is no need to search for trades at all.
Good signals are visible immediately. Instantly. Like 2 frogs above. You do not have to look for them. You turn on the terminal, and you see everything at once. You do not guess, do not draw, do not change the scale of the chart (narrower/wider).
If you do not see a signal on the chart in the first 1-2 seconds, it is not there.
In general, if you know at least 4-5 techniques of technical analysis , you, if you want, will find at any time on any chart a signal in any direction.
At any time on the chart, if you want you can find any signals. Impatience, desire to make money, bitterness after a previous unsuccessful trade or euphoria after a successful one all this clouds our brains and we look for the trades where there are none, proving ourselves right at the same time.
The longer you look at the chart, the more trades you’ll see
According to research by scientists, our brain works in such a way that the less often we encounter a familiar and familiar phenomenon, the more often we start to notice it.
Think about this phrase. Once you're looking for trades, you find them.
The vigilante syndrome
There was an interesting experiment: in an area with high crime rates, teams of volunteer vigilantes were introduced, who reported any violations of public order to the police.
At first, only serious crimes were reported. But then the crime rate in the neighborhood dropped significantly, and the vigilantes began to call the police for less important things: crossing the road in a wrong place or someone walking on the street at night, that sort of nonsense.
The Phantom Menace
In yet another experiment, people were shown several sets of sketches with completely different facial expressions: from frightening to totally friendly. And they were asked to choose from them the ones that looked threatening.
In the beginning, people chose the most "beastly" faces quite adequately, but then the scientists began to remove them from the samples leaving more "normal" faces. And people began to call those faces that seemed harmless to them at first threatening.
Why? Because they were told to SEE the threatening faces.
The experiments described above clearly show that when you look for something, you are bound to find it. So do the trades on the chart.
Our brain tries to match all the facts so as to confirm our point of view. And this leads to losses.
The only way to combat this effect, according to psychologists is to define your goals as precisely as possible and write down specific wording.
In the case of trading the cure is simple - a checklist.
If a trade corresponds to all of the checklist items there is a signal. If they do not correspond to at least one you are simply bored.
Practice using a demo account
Naturally, having installed a new system on the char you will not see trades in 2 seconds. Any new strategy requires that you get used to it. A demo account is an excellent way to do that.
How long should you get used to a new trading system? It depends on the timeframe and the frequency of trades. If it is intraday trading a week is enough. If it is a daily chart (D1), then about a month.
How often do you need to check the chart?
Whatever timeframe you have that's how you should check it. If D1 - once a day, if H1 - once an hour and so on. On timeframes below D1, you should limit the trading range when you are looking for signals. Checking charts at night on low timeframes usually makes no sense.
To summarize: the more you look at the chart, the more wrong trades you have (they can be profitable, given the random nature of the market, but not according to the system). The best signals are visible immediately, literally in the first second.
Asian Trading SessionHello everyone!
Each trading session has its own characteristics.
According to these features, you as a trader should act.
And today I want to discuss with you the specifics of the Asian trading session.
Working hours
The Asian trading session is open from 19:00 to 4:00 New York time.
Trading in Asia begins with Tokyo, the main trading center is opened, the Tokyo Stock Exchange, followed by all the major financial institutions of Japan.
The centers of activity of the Asian session are Tokyo, the largest financial center in Asia. Then, in an hour, Hong Kong and Singapore open, which contributes to the increase in trading.
The trading peak is reached at the opening of the European session, which overlaps with the Asian one at 2:00 New York time.
The Asian and Pacific sessions coincide in terms of working hours and therefore they are often considered as one.
The trading period at this session coincides with the opening hours of the largest Asian exchanges, such as the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the Israeli TASE, the National Stock Exchange and BSE in India, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges in China, the Abu Dhabi Stock Exchange and DFM in the UAE, the Saudi Stock Exchange, Singapore SGX, Korean KRX, as well as the Japanese TSE, which in many ways is the market conductor in the Asian session. Also, during this period of time, trading is underway on the Australian ASX, the New Zealand Stock Exchange in Wellington, as well as the Port Moresby Stock Exchange.
Currency pairs
It should be understood that during the Asian session, the Asian currency is characterized by increased volatility.
Currency pairs with the Japanese yen:
AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY, CHF/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, HKD/JPY, NZD/JPY, SGD/JPY, TRY/JPY, USD/JPY.
Currency pairs with the Australian dollar:
AUD/CAD, AUD/CHF, AUD/USD, EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD.
Pairs with Hong Kong Dollar:
EUR/HKD, GBP/HKD, SGD/HKD, USD/HKD.
There is also an increase in volatility in the currency pairs CHN/USD, CHN/RUB, EUR/SGD, GBP/SGD, USD/SGD. It is these pairs that traders pay the main attention to during the Asian session.
Session Features
The Asian session is considered to be the calmest session, where sharp fluctuations are practically excluded, so it will be easier for beginners to trade at this time.
Due to the fact that the market is closed on the weekend, on Monday, driven by the news of what happened over the weekend, the price can create strong movements and even form gaps.
Asian traders form a trend that is most often supported by European and American traders.
The main players during the Asian session are the Japanese Central Bank, as well as large companies. The economies of Japan and China are export-oriented, which causes their companies to be more active in foreign exchange transactions.
Due to the active activity of the state in the market, which are caused by the currency interventions of the Japanese Central Bank, significant deviations of the Yen can be observed, and since 16% of all transactions in the market take place with the participation of the Yen, this also affects other currencies.
Conclusion
It should be understood that most of the time the market is influenced by the state, which by its actions (interventions) pushes the market and creates a trend. That is why news monitoring, tracking the economic indicators of the Asian region, greatly help to predict the future movement of the market.
The Asian session is the quietest trading period, the most suitable for training beginners. Strong jumps are quite rare, while trends are often replaced by strong sideways movements. Volatility during the Asian session is considered to be the lowest, which makes it the least convenient for scalping strategies and the greatest for technical analysis.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
✍️WEEKLY QUOTE: Remember the errors✍️..I advocate that you focus on eliminating your biggest errors, rather than trying to acquire new knowledge..
..It may feel like you are taking a step back, but this is a very useful heuristic for learning, because you are always acutely aware of what your biggest leaks are, and it is a much more efficient way to progress. When you constantly chop off your C-trade errors, eventually your A-trade becomes your B-trade, and you develop an entirely new, better A-trade..
When you are simply working on preventing your biggest leaks, all you have to do is make an effort to remember not to do them. If you are falling out of the Zone, it is much easier to steady the ship when you have simple reminders of what not to do, then trying to apply 10 pages of notes on complex trading concepts.
This was from How to Get in the Zone More Often – Minimize Active Learning by Jared Tendler
Trading BooksI can say unequivocally that without reading the trading book in this market you can't go far.
People who do not develop will eventually end up with nothing. The well-known argument what is better, books or practice, makes no sense they are parts of a single coin.
The question of "what to read" is also abstract. There is plenty of meaningful reading. Except that I would advise not to bury yourself especially in books about the stock market, if you work in the Forex market, for example. The candles are different there (daily gaps between sessions), and it's a different world.
Don't skip books about trading psychology. They are often fascinating and your brain will rest after looking at the charts all day.
Practice on the charts. Read again. Work through them again. In parallel, work with a live chart. That's how you slowly become a trader.
Always keep in mind the main thing whatever is described in the book, it is only a particular view of one author and there are thousands of such views. What you need is a personal, individual approach to the market. If trying to copy or adopt someone else's style of trading you will not get far.
You can only trade by being yourself. And to become a self-sufficient trader, you must break through the mind of someone who's been in the market for decades. Take from them what suits you psychologically and create your own. Only yours that you will then not be able to pass on to anyone.
What books to read
This is a very popular question. There are a lot of books to read.
Books on technical analysis;
Books on psychology of trading;
Books and articles about price action.
Your task, averagely, is to get at least a general idea about trading at first.
Therefore, read about the basics of technical analysis:
Reuters. Technical Analysis for Beginners.
The basics of candlestick analysis:
Steve Neeson. Japanese Candlesticks. Chart Analysis of Financial Markets
Gregory Morris. Method for analyzing stocks and futures
Psychology:
Mark Douglas. Trading in the Zone.
Edwin Lefebvre. Memories of a Stock Speculator
Sometimes a whole book is worth reading for the sake of a single phrase that can sort out the mess in your head.
How to Read a Trading Book
Most books, as you know are easier to find in electronic form.
Personally, I read mostly in electronic form on my MacBook and iPad. Why is it convenient to read on the laptop exactly the trading books? Well, you can immediately open the chart, practice what you read, plus write down the appropriate thoughts in your electronic diary, take screenshots.
An alternative method is print the books you want on a laser printer. Some people get it at work and others buy a simple laser printer at home.
You can buy the least expensive model and print thousands of pages. It is not difficult to staple them and your eyes will be less tired (although I am more than satisfied with the apple screen). Likewise, a good e-reader like the Amazon Kindle or Pocketbook.
No one owns the market. Hence the logical consequence there is no grail, no secret mathematical formula or method of guaranteed prediction. Not in any book or course. Not a single indicator. Not one candlestick pattern or price action pattern. No teacher on the planet that "knows the market." No guaranteed signals that make you feel good. There aren't any.
There is only mathematical probability and all the traders in the world are learning to "tilt" it slightly in their direction, reducing losses and increasing profits. The market is a zero-sum game. Money constantly moves from one hand to another without ever sticking around.
Many hedge funds last 3-4 years and disappear. Now you made a million, tomorrow you gave 2, the day after you made 4, lost 5, went bankrupt, came back again, etc. Books allow us to learn a lot of these stories.
Thousands, tens of thousands of author's views are what trading books are all about. Not a guarantee, not some special way to suddenly become a unique forecaster by reading it.
💡Theory into Practice: Trade recap, bias, entry, management💡📉 Text marks:
🔹 IL = impulse leg. Inside of IL we can usually see inside structure, which is secondary in nature, like a market noise, unless you trade it on LTF, as it’s own IL.
🔹 ph, pl = protected high or low, which holds current structural impulse.
🔹 bos = break of structure . Based on candle body close below/above previous structural impulse.
🔹 rsz, rdz = refined supply and demand zones. Specific areas to look for LTF confirmations. They are manipulative up-moves before real down moves, or vice versa. Strong hands (the Composite Man, as Wyckoff called it) often come back to such zones to close their manipulative orders at breakeven, before pushing prices further. If body closes outside of the zone, in most cases it will mean the cancellation of the setup.
🔹 if ltf confirms = entry only if there's a shift of structure on lower TF inside of rsz or rdz, or any other type of backtested and approved confirmation.
🔹 liq target = liquidity target: next profit taking levels for strong hands, our main targets based on current price action.
☝️Disclaimer: ALL ideas here are for EDUCATIONAL and MARKETING purposes only, not a financial advice, NOT A SIGNAL. I share my view on the market and search for like-minded traders. YOUR TRADES ARE YOUR COMPLETE RESPONSIBILITY. Everything here should be treated as trading in a simulated environment.
👉I believe that "right or wrong" mentality is a fundamental flaw of any beginner. In reality, a trader is right only when he executes the system and follows his rules, and he's wrong only when he's taking random setups. A trader should find a system he's willing to work with long-term, hindsight test, backtest and then execute live, then refine until perfection.
🚀Thanks for your BOOSTS and support🚀
💬Send your comments and questions below, share your ideas and charts, I'll be glad to talk to you💬
RSI Crash Course - Why Most People Get REKTHere is a quick crash course on how I use the RSI along with Elliott Waves.
- Using the 20, 30, 40, 60, 70, 80 levels within the context of the trend to spot entries
- How to spot uptrends and downtrends with support and resistance
- How to spot big 3rd wave moves
- Using divergences to spot the end of a trend
This can be used on any time-frame but I just use it on the daily for this example
Like anything in trading, the RSI is more complex than most people first suspect. However, I hope this tutorial simplifies it enough for you to improve your trading
P.S. Video cuts out part way into my example, but you get the full tutorial and setup on how I use the RSI
Hope you have a great day trading,
Tchau
>1%Hello everyone
Today I want to discuss with you a serious issue of risk management.
Surely each of you has heard about the 1% rule: do not risk more than 1% of your capital in one transaction.
The rule is well-known and quite useful, it is better to lose 1% than the entire capital.
Beginners, although they know this rule, rarely follow it and this is a big problem.
I think this is the main problem of beginners, people think that the problem is strategy, but FOREX trading is a game of probability.
The Probability Game
Not every trader understands what probability is.
Most are afraid to study this question because they are afraid of long mathematical formulas.
Do not be afraid, you need to study!
And even if you don't want to do it, there is an easier way.
In simple words: probability is something that happens more often than usual, but not always.
Not clear?
Let's take any pattern. By the method of research and observations, experienced traders decided that this pattern is often found on the market and it can be traded, while trading this pattern does not promise 100% results.
This means that if you trade this pattern infinitely many times, you will be in the black at a distance.
At a distance…
We're getting close.
Distance is a series of transactions.
Whatever pattern you choose, whatever strategy you have, you need distance, you need to make a series of trades so that the pattern works out in order to understand whether this strategy is really profitable.
But if you risk everything or almost everything in one trade, what distance will you have?
Exactly.
Without a series of trades, you will not be able to profit from the pattern, without risk management and following the 1% rule, you will not be able to make a series of trades, because your capital will disappear very quickly.
Do you think that 1% is too little?
Professional traders risk an even smaller percentage in transactions.
The goal is to stay in the game as long as possible and that's when you'll be super profitable.
Traders who risk less than 1% in transactions get huge profits at a distance, so don't worry about profits, think about losses, how to reduce and avoid them.
Demo account
The biggest advantage of a demo account, in my opinion, is that it is free and every trader can train to follow risk management for free and as much as he wants.
I advise you to set aside a month for trading on a demo account with the right risk management.
Set a goal not to open trades with a risk of more than 1%.
And no matter what your strategy is, just follow the rule.
I assure you, you will see the difference.
Analyze, study, train and victory will find you.
good luck!
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
Stability In Forex TradingWhy so few traders manage to bring their trading to the level of stable earnings, when trading becomes a source of income, and not a source of constant disappointment?
Because before you start to get the "easy" money that everyone comes to this industry, you will have to go a long way to make a lot of mistakes, each of which will cost you money. To fall down many times and get up more times, to lose money at the same time without losing the motivation to move forward, to learn yourself and change your attitude to trading. In addition to all of this, the difficulty is that no trader knows how much time it will take him. And the truth is that 95% don't have the strength and patience to do it.
I can point out 3 main criteria for stable trading:
The right attitude to losing trades.
Confidence in your strategy.
Availability of trading rules and most importantly the desire to follow them.
1. Accepting losses.
To survive in this field, a trader has to learn to properly deal with losses, without that he will not be able to make a profit in the long run. Just like in sports, first you learn how to fall properly, then everything else.
The thirst for quick money, which is present in almost everyone at the initial stage, generates fixation on profits. With this attitude the trader becomes highly vulnerable and morally unprepared to accept and tolerate losses. Nobody likes making mistakes and losing money. And large losses cause a lot of stress, which can lead to emotional burnout, depression and even deprive the strength to continue trading.
Trader's dependence on the expectations of the result of each deal will invariably make him experience emotions. And emotions will push him to make erroneous actions. These constant emotional swings take away the trader's strength and leave him with no opportunity to improve his trading. He's busy just trying to keep his mental balance somehow.
How do most traders try to solve this problem? They try to avoid losses and fight their emotions.
But that's impossible, you, see? This is a vicious circle.
What you can and should do is to shift your attention from the result of each trade to the result of a time period (for example, a month). It is very important to understand and accept that: in any sequence of trades, there is a random distribution of profitable and losing trades.
This will help reduce the emotional component of trading. When you do not expect any result from a trade, the result of the trade ceases to matter and causes emotions that push you to take the wrong actions. The trader's job is to make his trading as psychologically comfortable as possible.
2. Strategy
A strategy is a method. Most traders, having suffered another failure, begin to change their trading strategy or look for another one. They sincerely believe that the problem is in it. That it is the strategy which does not let them to earn profit. But there are no profitable or unprofitable strategies. Traders make them so.
In fact, a strategy is not supposed to provide a trader with profit. It has only one function. It should provide trader's understanding of WHAT, WHERE and WHEN to trade. And the sooner the trader stops shifting responsibility from himself and his actions to his strategy, the faster he will learn.
It will take time for you to feel confident in your strategy. Time to adjust the method to yourself, to your understanding of the market. You can take any strategy you like as a basis and taking into account your weaknesses and strengths determine how and what you will trade.
3. Compliance with rules
The third and perhaps the most important criterion for stable trading is the presence and observance of rules. This is what will bring the trader profit in the end.
Trading rules have only two functions:
To provide a trading strategy with a positive mathematical expectation.
Provide correct models of trader's behavior in different trading situations.
So that it is possible to control emotions and not to leave the psychological comfort zone.
When successful traders are asked what is most important to achieve success none of them focuses on their strategy, they do not talk about the magic money management or special knowledge. But all of them say that it's important to follow their rules in a disciplined manner.
All traders who make money fanatically follow their rules. Because they know that strict adherence to trading rules is what makes them profitable. The market pays us money for our disciplined actions. We pay it for experience and it pays us for discipline. Most traders are mainly busy analyzing their trades and forget about their own behavior and trading mindset.
The desire to follow the rules arises only when you realize that they reduce your losses, which automatically increases your profitability.
Unfortunately, there is no ready algorithm for creating rules. They are individual, and that is the difficulty of learning to trade. The only guideline in their creation is that they must LIMIT your losses. Everything else is up to you.
Learn to listen to yourself by methodically and persistently striving to improve your trading. If you give yourself time to learn first, setting aside the desire for instant results, you will definitely come to have your own trading system sooner or later. An individual system which will bring you money.
ETH/USD Main trend. Accumulation/Distribution. Pivot pointsThe chart shows the main trend (most of it) of this cryptocurrency. The timeframe is 1 week.
Most people "trade" and do not understand the profit values of the price from the real set zones (not hamsters).
Also shown are the recruitment zones (horizontal channel) and partial reset zones (until the triangle decoupling) of previously gained positions of large market participants.
The last video explained this in detail and showed it on the example of this coin.
Even taking into account that this triangle (1.5 years) is a position reset. That doesn't mean that this formation must necessarily break down. But, this is something to keep in mind, especially the +3600%.
Volatility narrowing, that is, the end of triangle formation is a “doubt zone”—the “market fuel” (small and medium market participants) for the impulse is clamped down. That is, the decoupling of the triangle and the direction of further trend development.
The price is clamped into a triangle. A formation of this magnitude will only unravel due to future world shocks, especially financial ones. Who knows, maybe this time there will be no correlation at all, as the time of "coming out of the shadows" approaches.
Always trade within your working range (for example 1 day), always understand where the price is in the main trend. Based on this understanding, limit the risks, and make a decision about reducing (partial liquidation) or, on the contrary, about adding to the position.
Locally on the 1-day timeframe a wedge is formed on the decline.
I've shown all the decoupling options for this trading situation in detail in this trading idea, as well as in the video.
ETH/USDT Local trend. Channel. Wedge. Pivot zones.
Under idea fixed my previous trading as well as training/trading ideas where I accompanied the price in updates for quite a long period. Note the exact values and more. You can use the material in them as educational, based on reality.
Remember, the basis of trading is not guessing (that's what everyone wants to do), but your trading strategy and risk management based on your knowledge and experience.
Those who want to guess tend to lose money. Do not be such characters in the market, that is, its fuel. I wish all smart people a big profit, and wish all stupid people to wake up from the dream of stupidity.
Winning Trader is Patient TraderHello friends, like every forex trader on Earth, I sometimes ask myself what are my strengths and weaknesses? How have I changed, and what qualities have I developed in myself? Today we're going to talk about how you can develop it. How susceptible are you to impatience?
Impatience in ordinary life.
But what does it mean to be able to "delay making a decision"? For me, it means handling things calmly and being disciplined. I don't have to do rash things right away and can bide my time for action. This is equally true for trading as it is for real life.
Wait until you get a good discount for something you've wanted to buy for a long period of time. After all, there are many things that seem to be needed, but their purchase may well have to wait until the seasonal sale.
This behavior, also called "delayed gratification," protects me from making hasty and emotional decisions. I would not be satisfied if I bought something recklessly, only to get the thing right away but pay a high price for it. My focus is on the risk/reward ratio. So, the risk of making a bad decision is relatively low.
I think it's not easy to just wait it out these days. The sensitivity to consumption and the wide variety of offerings makes it difficult to refrain from buying something right away without waiting out the right situation. Due to the ability to pay in installments, people are able to buy expensive items right away. Many people spend money on rash decisions and get into debt just because they can't wait.
Several years ago, I read Daniel Goleman's book “Emotional Intelligence”. Among others, he described long-term experiments with children who became particularly successful and incorruptible if they learned at an early age about delayed decision-making.
The essence of the experiment was this: a child was offered a candy and told that he could eat it now, and if he didn't eat the candy right away, but waited twenty minutes, he would get two candies. So, those children who agreed to wait, then in adulthood were much more successful than fans of "fast" candy.
What does this mean for the trade?
I think delayed gratification has several positive effects on trading.
You have to wait out the right situation and you have to refrain from recklessly entering the market.
You must wait for the perfect set-up that will execute according to all the rules.
You should not take profits too early, and should calmly wait and close a position only when your rules allow you to do so.
You must be firmly aware of when you should not trade and when your individual trading strategy will not be profitable.
You must control your risks to stay in the game.
You must know that you can only succeed in trading in the long run and that you cannot get rich quickly.
Nowadays, I have begun to notice that I am primarily looking for reasons NOT to enter the market. It is only when there is no reason to trade that I open a position. The market no longer pressures me, and I try not to be influenced by my emotions. I have to wait for the right setup and the right conditions. The emphasis is on first-class odds, not second-class and beyond. All you have to do is wait it out.
Another point that is never talked about. It's pushing through situations. Here's an example: you have an open position and it has reached a stop loss. You want to win back, and at the next signal you enter the market with bigger lot position. Again, you take a loss. You follow your emotions and open in the same direction with an even bigger lots, without even waiting for your strategy signal. You probably already know the end of the story. This is a push-pull situation, when you're trying to have some kind of impact on something you can't influence.
Exercise
Instead of describing any self-evident conclusions from the above, I offer you a simple exercise, which allows you to understand whether you have developed the skill of waiting or not.
Take an hourglass, for 3-5 minutes (no less), turn it upside down, and just watch the grains of sand pile down into the empty half of it. Your task is to wait until the last grain of sand falls down. Do not try to control your thoughts.
So, after you've completed the task, remember what thoughts and emotions you had while you were watching the sand? If you were starting to get mad at how slowly the sand is falling away, you were trying to figure out how much time is left, you were cursing to yourself about this "stupid task" that doesn't let you see pictures of cats, you were remembering how many important things you have to do today, or even failed to wait until the sand falls to the other half of the hour congratulations. You have a problem with patience. But if you calmly waited for the last grain of sand, you had no desire to speed up the process in any way, you just watched the sand until the very end without emotion or irritation. You don't have a problem with patience, at least not obviously.
Bites Of Trading Knowledge For New TOP Traders #15 (short read)Bites Of Trading Knowledge For New TOP Traders #15
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What is an Interest Rate Differential? -
An interest rate differential is a change in the interest rates between the currencies of two countries. It is a measure of how money from two countries compares to each other.
What is the Carry Trade? -
The carry trade is where an investor borrows in a currency where the interest rate is low and converts those funds into a currency where the interest rate is higher.
For example, if one currency has an interest rate of 5% and the other has a rate of 1%, it has a 4% interest rate differential. If you were to buy the currency that pays 5% against one that pays 1%, you would be paid on the difference with daily interest payments.
RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR CORPORATES AND INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS -
Common application of financial market instruments for managing risk and opportunities.
Diversification: Portfolio Risk Using FX Futures
Portfolio diversification is the process of investing your money in different asset classes and securities in order to minimize the overall risk of the portfolio.
For both corporate and individual investors, having access to markets that enable the building of a diversified portfolio is an important consideration when managing futures focused accounts.
Similar to managing risk, the market to trade would be a key variable to clearly state and support with reasons for trading or investing. Reasons for selecting one market over another could include price volatility, liquidity, daily volume traded, size of the minimum price increment, and value of the minimum price increment. Comparing these variables between markets will help decide the suitability and/or risk of each.
For example, the parameters for a price driven strategy may be designed to be applied to any market whether it be index equity futures or forex futures. However, the signals for entry may not always trigger if a trader were just to focus on a single index equity futures. Having access to markets such as the Micro MSCI USA Index futures could add diversification to a portfolio in an efficient manner.
Having access to other futures markets to apply the strategy to allow for the creation of a diversified portfolio with varying entry and exit points or the ability for more trading oriented investors increased opportunities to execute price driven strategies more often across a range of futures markets.
TRADDICTIV · Research Team
--------
Disclaimer:
We do not provide investment advice, nor provide any personalized investment recommendations and/or advice in making a decision to trade. Before you start trading, please make sure you have considered your entire financial situation, including financial commitments and you understand that trading is highly speculative and that you could sustain significant losses.
Divergence in TradingThe essence of divergence is very simple: The divergence of price and indicator movements.
When price updates higher highs and the oscillator updates lower highs, it is divergence in its classic form. It could be stochastic, RSI, MACD, CCI and hundreds of other oscillators. Some traders believe divergence is the only oscillatory signal worth looking at.
From stochastics creator George Lane to Alexander Elder, hundreds of professional traders have described divergence in their books.
What is the essence of the divergence?
When the price reaches its maximum value, the oscillator should reach it too. The same is true for the minimum values. This is how it works in a normal situation. If the oscillator and price decide to mark different values - we're talking about divergence.
It can be used in two main cases:
conventional divergence;
hidden divergence.
Let us now analyze them.
The classic divergence
The simplest and clearest signal, which hints at a future trend reversal. If price makes a lower low and the oscillator makes a higher low, we have a traditional bullish divergence. In other words, if the oscillator is up and the price is down, that is a hint of a reversal of the price in the direction of the oscillator.
The opposite situation is also true. The trend is going upward and the price is updating the maximums and if the oscillator is not then it’s a divergence.
The optimal use of divergence is on the maximum and minimum values of the price. This is the easiest way to find the reversal zone. The oscillator directly indicates that the momentum is changing and although the price keeps updating levels, it will not last.
We have considered the conventional divergence, now let's look at its evil cousin, the hidden divergence. It is not so secret that it is just a divergence hidden within the trend.
Hidden divergence
A divergence does not always indicate a trend reversal. Sometimes it is, on the contrary, a clear indication that the trend will continue. Remember, you should be friends with the trend, so any signal that the trend will continue is a good signal.
Hidden divergence is quite simple. The price updates the upper low and the oscillator updates the lower low. It is easy to see. When the price has updated the maximum, check if the oscillator has done the same. If it doesn't and goes in the opposite direction, it's a divergence.
And there is the hidden bearish divergence. The price updates lower highs on a downward move and the oscillator, on the other hand, it is trending upwards and updating the higher highs. If the general trend is downward, it is an indication that this trend will continue and quite possibly double its efforts.
How Use Divergences Properly?
Divergences are a great tool. However, it often raises the question of when exactly to open the trade so that it does not happen that the trade is opened too early or too late. For this purpose, we need a confirmation: some method allowing us to filter the false entries in the divergence. We will consider several such methods.
Oscillator crossing
The first thing we usually look at is a trivial crossing of oscillator lines, say, stochastics. This is an additional indication that the trend may soon change. Therefore, when the price approaches the upper or lower zone, the crossing can give a good signal.
Patience and confirmation of signals are the main qualities of a trader. Divergence is a great tool, but you need to confirm it with additional tools to achieve really good results.
Oscillator exits the overbought/oversold zone
Well, we took our time and waited for additional confirmations of the divergence. Strong enough to indicate a reversal of the trend. Which ones? Remember the basics of technical analysis. A trend line would show that the trend is steadily descending and it is too early to enter the reversal.
This technique is very valuable for finding a reversal or breakdown of a trend line. If the price bounces from the trend line, draw it for the oscillator as well.
8 rules of divergence
To use divergence successfully, it is advisable to adhere to the following rules.
1. The minima and the maxima
The following conditions are necessary for divergence
price updates higher highs or lower lows;
a double top;
double bottom.
When the price updates these highs and lows, there is a trend and this is the feeding ground for divergence. If there is no trend and all you see is a consolidation, the divergence can be missed.
2. Draw lines between the tops
The price is in only two states: trend or consolidation. Connect its tops with lines in order to figure out what is going on. If one peak is lower or higher than the other, it is trending and the market is sweet and available for trades. If there are no clear new highs and lows, it means that there is a consolidation, and divergences do not play a significant role in it.
3. Connecting the tops
Let's be more specific. The price reached the new maximums? Connect the tops. If it made lower lows, connect them. And don't get confused. A very common mistake the price makes new highs and the trader connects the previous lows for some reason.
4. Just watch out for overbought and oversold.
We have connected the tops with trend lines. Now we study the oscillator readings. Remember we are only comparing highs and lows. It doesn't matter what the MACD or stochastic is showing in the middle of the chart. What difference does it make? It makes no difference. We are only interested in their boundary values.
5. Connect the highs and lows of both the price and the oscillator
If we have connected the highs/minimums of the price, we have to do the same for the oscillator. And not somewhere, but for the current values.
6. Watch the angle of slope of the lines.
Divergence when the angle of lines for the price and the oscillator is different. The more this difference, the better. The line can be upward, downward or flat.
7. Don't miss the moment
If you notice the divergence too late and the price reverses, it means the train has already left. The divergence has worked out, it will not be relevant forever. The one who missed it is too late. Wait for the next price divergence with the oscillator and a new divergence will not keep you waiting.
8. Longer timeframes
Divergence works better on higher timeframes. Simply because there are fewer false signals. That's why it's recommended to use them on 1-hour charts or more. Yes, some people like 5- and 15-minute charts, but in these timeframes, divergences often lead to false ones.
These are the rules for dealing with divergence. It's a cool tool. If you specialize on it, it is one of the most powerful methods of technical analysis. Certainly, you will need practice and a bottle of good wine to understand all its peculiarities.
Trading on a demo accountHello everyone!
Today I want to discuss a topic that worries everyone: to trade or not to trade on a demo account.
The demo account itself is a useful tool, but it also has a couple of disadvantages.
Let's deal with everything in order.
Advantages of a demo account
Perhaps the most important plus is that you do not need to deposit your money into the account.
The demo account is created for training, and you can use it for free! There are no risks and you will not lose your money.
The ability to test your strategies. Thanks to a demo account, you can try to trade your strategy in real time on a real market and understand whether it works or not and whether you are able to follow the rules.
The experience is priceless, and you can get it thanks to a demo account. You can open demo accounts as much as you want and trade all day long, filling your hand on the real market.
Thanks to the demo account, you can try all the free indicators and understand which ones are suitable for you and which ones do not work at all.
Disadvantages of a demo account
Perhaps the most important disadvantage is that you will definitely behave differently than on a real account. Psychology is not to do anywhere and when trading for real money, you will immediately notice it. There is no tension on demo accounts, because you will not lose your money, but as soon as the question concerns your real money, you lose your head.
In addition, transactions are executed instantly on a demo account, this is not always possible on a real account, because there is slippage. Because of this, strategies that were profitable on a demo account may be unprofitable on a real one.
On demo accounts, traders choose the maximum deposit and trade the maximum lots . With an infinite deposit, it's hard to lose all the money. In real trading, the account is usually always smaller and therefore you need to trade a smaller lot, which is not so easy.
Spread. A narrow spread on a demo account is a feature of brokers trying to attract as many clients as possible. In real trading, this parameter will be wider.
The number of transactions. On demo accounts, traders tend to execute a much larger number of orders than they actually need. This habit is transferred to real money. But it is much more important to approach the evaluation of each transaction carefully and chase not the number of orders, but their quality.
Conclusion
A demo account is certainly a very useful tool for a trader.
But you need to approach the matter wisely and understand the difference between a demo and a real account.
Practice trading on a demo account the same way as if you were managing real money and then the benefits will be much greater.
Good luck!
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
📖 STEP 4 to MASTER TRADING: Focus on One Pattern 📖
"I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times." - Bruce Lee
We, traders, have a natural passion for learning and that’s really great and helps us build that foundation for trading. However, a moment comes when enough is enough and it’s time to focus on something more specific. But very often, we can make the unconscious mistake of trying to learn as much as possible, without even questioning if we really need it at the moment.
🟩 TOO MUCH INFORMATION
For anyone eager to learn, the information is there. In fact, too much information, and naturally, it can be hard to stop learning. Sometimes we just feel we need to learn about one more pattern, one more strategy, one more approach. And it may seem that more knowledge will bring quality. And that’s true when you just start trading, however, later in your career, it makes sense to think and ask yourself: “Do I really need one more strategy which I know on an average level, or should I maybe focus on one strategy, or one pattern of any given strategy - and really master it, and refine it to the very deep level of understanding?”
🟩 IT’S UNCOMFORTABLE TO LET GO
This part can be discussed for a long time, but based on what was said before, it’s literally uncomfortable for traders to let go of this habit of trying to trade multiple patterns, and learn more patterns in between. I’m not sure why this is so, there must be some psychological reasoning for this, but in simple words, every new trading pattern can be treated by us as a new opportunity to make profits in the market. And so when we stop learning more patterns - it can feel like we’re missing something.
And it may seem that the more we trade, the more patterns we can use - the more profit we can bank because we can enter into the market based on different patterns. And while that may be true to some genius traders, for most of us it doesn’t work that well. More importantly - we don’t need to do it. It’s enough to master 1-2 patterns of a given system we believe in and tested, and so have confidence in it.
I propose you consider “cutting off” 90% of your trading knowledge and focus only on executing 1-2 patterns max. Think about it. If you’re like me, you should feel really uncomfortable or even scared to do this. It may even seem stupid. Because it means you should let go of all the time you dedicated to learning, and maybe even trading with some systems before. But it’s an illusion because that time and effort - they are not lost, you can’t lose them, they are part of you now, part of your experience, something that led you to finally choose something you will work with really closely. But if you will attach to everything you learned before – this will confuse you and spray your focus all over the place, making it much harder to become a specialized, professional trader.
🟩 FOCUS ON YOUR BEST PATTERN ONLY
When the time comes, and you’ve tried several strategies, it now makes sense to stop exploring additional systems and just focus on one system and learn everything about it. For example, if you’re trading head and shoulders, then stop trading double tops and bottoms, break and retest, and diamond patterns. Why? Because head and shoulders are not just 5 lines on the chart, it has numerous variations in how it plays out in the market, in different markets, sessions, and contexts. And you have to know it, see it, test it, and refine it. Become a master of head and shoulders, or any other specific pattern and trading approach, and be profitable with it. And if profitability is there - you can move on to another pattern, but at that stage, you will not need it probably.
🟩 HINDSIGHT TEST, BACKTEST, FORWARDTEST, REFINE
It’s a great practice to have a “hindsight journal” and your backtesting journal, that will only be about that pattern you chose to trade. And there could be several reasons for choosing some particular pattern. But usually, it comes from your mentor or anyone else that you saw who reached sustainable profitability with it, and you believed in this pattern. But that would not be enough. You can’t tell your brain - believe in this. You need to actually show and prove it to your brain and to yourself.
So you need to backtest this pattern, and only this pattern for at least 150 trades. This will help you to develop real confidence in the system.
🟩 YES, IT CAN BE HARD TO FIND “YOUR” SYSTEM
I spent almost 3 years before I really found something I was willing to stick to long-term. Not sure if there’s actually good advice on how to find the system for yourself. It depends on your personality, your lifestyle, etc. Based on my experience, I would say just continue to learn and listen to yourself. Most likely you’ll find some trader or a mentor and you’ll like his trading style. Try to replicate it, and stick to his system. With time, and during journaling and live testing, it will all develop into your own system. Yes, it may look similar to your mentor’s but it will be your system.
And once again, a trading system can have different kinds of entry confirmations, but it makes big sense to choose 1 or 2 confirmations and master them.
🎁 For those who are still reading :), thank you, and here’s BONUS trading hack for you. Next time during your trading day, when you'll feel something is wrong, maybe you're frustrated or just feel like your discipline starts to slip away, or maybe even you catch yourself thinking about entering without entry pattern or risk more than usual - realize that's your "monkey brain" stepping in. It's very hard to control, but easy to trick. Here's what you should do. Say to yourself: "Ok, I'll do whatever I like, place any kind of trade with the risk of half of the account if I want, BUT after 20 min. pass." Then you just start a timer (you can google "timer 20 min.") and do whatever you like after that 20 minutes. Usually what happens is you calm down and don't do stupid things. It very simple but effective technique.
🚀Thanks for your BOOSTS and support🚀
💬Send your comments and questions below, I'll be glad to talk to you💬
Dima
Environment Dictates PerformanceHello, fellow Forex traders! Successful trading on the currency market is not only about having a trading strategy that suits you, emotional composure and risk control. Your work environment, where and how you trade, also plays an important role. So, what should be a trader's workplace?
A computer
You don't need super powerful hardware for the trading terminal. But when all of your programs, including the terminal, work quickly, nothing hangs and the computer does not "freeze", if you suddenly decide to take your mind off the charts and watch videos with cats on youtube, it's quite pleasant and comfortable. And it does not disturb your emotional state. And you still need nerves. If you trade on a desktop PC, I advise you to keep a laptop nearby. Since the electricity can theoretically cut out at any time, and the laptop runs on battery power - at least to close the position you will have enough charge.
Monitor
It is better if it will be large. 19-24 inches. It's just more comfortable. A lot of monitors, as in the movies about cool traders, you do not need, believe me. At least it will not make you trade better directly. But you will be able to watch a movie, play a game and trade Forex at the same time.
Internet
The faster, the better. Also, you need to think about what you will do if it suddenly turns off. "Backup plan" can be either pre-internet from another provider (just pay every month for 2 networks), or a 3g modem, or a modern smartphone, such as iPhone, with a modem function (more than once helped me out).
Chair
The spine is directly related to brain function, headaches and overall human health. So do not skimp on normal computer chair. You will get a hundredfold return of the money spent and you'll save your health.
Printer
Printer/scanner/copier. You probably saw these hybrid devices at offices of different companies. Buy one of these and you can print out charts, use pens to draw on them, scan them back into your computer, make yourself important data posters, etc. Printed out charts with examples of difficult situations, tables with lot sizes for positions, examples of shapes, new rules to implement in the TS are very helpful in your work. Try it.
But most importantly, try not to mix work and personal life. If possible, it is better to allocate a separate room for trade, or even rent an office (for those who do not have problems with money). This way you will not be distracted by anything, and you will not disturb anyone.
YOU SHOULD KNOW THISYOU SHOULD KNOW THIS
Hello everyone!
Today I would like to remind you of a couple of things, the understanding of which will definitely take you to a new level.
Let's go!
1. 99% of newbies come to trading with a desire to make quick money and that's the problem. Trading is a long game. It's worth understanding right away and remembering. In trading, it is impossible to consistently make a double-digit increase in capital and at the same time follow reasonable risk management.
2. Without reasonable risk management, sooner or later you will lose ALL your capital. All professional traders follow risk management and as a rule do not risk more than 1% of the capital in one transaction.
3. Small capital will be a problem. As a rule, 90% of small capitals are burned in the forex market in the first week. All because it is difficult to follow the rules of risk management with a small account, largely because the profit will be scanty, and the time spent will be too much. Over time, you will get tired of wasting time and getting nothing in return, and you will start taking risks, thereby bringing your account to $ 0.
4. You will not be able to correctly predict the exact direction of the market every time. If you think it's possible, the market will kill you. No one can know the future and nitko cannot predict all market movements. But the good news is, you don't have to be right in every trade.
5. The right risk-to-profit ratio will take you to the top. In the market, it is enough to be right in 40% of cases if your RR in transactions is equal to 1:4. Only 4 deals out of 10 will help your account grow steadily. And the higher the RR, the better for your score, but don't flirt.
Understand these principles now, and your trading will become more profitable today.
Good luck.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻