Tezos (XTZ)/USDT Market Cycles Pivot points (zones) PsychologyI have combined the idea of learning by cycles and pivot points (zones) with an actual trading idea for positional work using the example of the Tezos (XTZ) coin paired with USDT (USD).
According to Dow theory, there are 3 types of trends:
1) main (long-term).
2) minor.
3) insignificant (small).
3) Phases of trends.
In turn, each trend has the following phases:
1) phase of accumulation (set of position).
2) the phase of public participation (trend development)
3) panic phase (reset position).
4) the phase of price reduction (dump).
1. The phase of accumulation. (position set).
This stage occurs after the market has finished the downtrend and the dump is stopped. The price has formed a "bottom", in slang they say "bottom". It is at this stage that traders and investors enter the market, which can rightfully be called professional. They have the greatest amount of information (often internal - insiders) about the current state of the market and are the first to start active actions. The rest of the market participants do not realize at this time the state and direction of the market.
Of course, the accumulation phase is not easy to detect. It often follows a downtrend. And it can be, in turn, just a minor trend in the general downtrend. As a result, instead of a new trend, only a temporary pullback is obtained. From a technical point of view, the beginning of a new trend is always accompanied by a period of consolidation. This is when the market goes sideways and then starts to show an uptrend.
2. Phase of public participation (trend development).
Participation Phase Advanced investors and traders enter the market in the accumulation phase. When the trend really reverses, the public participation phase begins. Here the crowd enters the market. As this stage progresses, more traders jump into the current move as fear of loss is suppressed by greed and fear of missing out on an opportunity. This phase is the longest of all and is also characterized by the most active movement. Highs are constantly being updated - exactly what investors have been waiting for. The trend is developing. When this stage begins to end, the "last majority" jumps into the market and trading volumes begin to increase significantly. At this point, the theory of great stupidity prevails. The price rises significantly beyond historical levels, and logic and reason give way to greed.
While the majority enter the market, professional traders cut or close their trading positions. But as prices begin to level off or the rally slows down, those latecomers who stay out of the game see it as a buying opportunity and enter the market. Prices make the last parabolic move, known in technical analysis as a buying climax, when the greatest profits are often made in a short period.
3. Panic phase (reset position, distribution)
This is the phase where experienced traders and investors exit the market, and less experienced ones, on the contrary, enter the market. As a result, these investors and traders are excited about buying at the peak of the trend, shortly before its spectacular fall. The same phase is also a reversal one - professional investors and traders understand that the market has exhausted itself and begin to close their positions opened in the first phase.
To identify this phase, it is necessary to carefully study the signs that the market rally is complete. Moreover, the more active the market growth, the stronger the subsequent fall will be.
In the third stage of the market cycle, sellers begin to dominate. This part of the cycle is identified by a period in which the bullish sentiment of the previous stage is replaced by mixed sentiment. When this stage is over, the market direction changes. Classic chart patterns such as "double and triple top" or "head and shoulder" are examples of such movements that occur during the distribution stage.
The distribution stage is a very emotional period for the markets as investors are gripped by periods of complete fear, interspersed with hope and even greed, as at times the market may seem to be rising again.
Panic phase in a downtrend.
A similar story is when the main trend is bearish and goes down. The situation repeats itself in a mirror image, and at the implementation stage, a real panic is often formed, when many inexperienced investors and traders dump their assets and the price receives the last downward impulse before growth.
4. The phase of decline. (Dow did not separately identify this phase in his writings. In Dow's theory, this is the final stage of the distribution phase).
The fourth and final stage in the cycle is the most painful for those who still believed in the price increase. Many are holding them because their assets have fallen below their original amount. It is only when the market is down 50% or more that many of those who bought during the distribution stage or early in the decline give up. "Faith is being killed!" For more experienced traders, on the contrary, it serves as a buy signal and is a sign that the formation of a bottom is inevitable.
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4) Choice of cycle time.
An intraday trader who trades relatively small amounts and uses 5-minute candles can see many full cycles per day, while, for example, a positional trader using a weekly or monthly timeframe charts can see several cycles per year (average liquid instruments) or an extended cycle for several years (highly liquid instruments). But he also works in relatively large amounts that are not comparable to a scalper trader.
Your task is to learn how to correctly recognize market cycles on your working timeframe and use it in your trading.
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5) Points (zones) of price reversal.
It is necessary to immediately clarify the point (zone) of the price reversal always remains a potential point (zone), because it can act as a continuation of the trend. It is just that in certain zones there is a greater likelihood of a change in price movement than in others. This is very important to understand. Work like a trader, not like a "successful" wang hamster with which the Internet is clogged.
No one knows the exact future. You can identify potential more or less likely price movements and use this in your trading. It is also worth noting that it is not possible to predict everything. It is important that a large number of your forecasts for price movements, thanks to your experience and knowledge, are correctly determined.
Theory without practice is zero! Only your knowledge, modernized to the reality of the market, can give results in practice.
