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TVIX

Could TVIX Be Preparing for a Breakthrough??As you most likely already know, the VIX variations are famous for heading downwards over time as the markets become more stable again. However, as you can easily note by observing the charts, there are times that there are breakthroughs, and they are usually extremely aggressive. I have been watching TVIX very closely for the past few weeks and I believe it is preparing for another one of these breakthroughs. 1) Solid Support Curve Development - As you can see, a support curve has been developed which so far, appears to be holding out pretty toughly. I would not be surprised if this support is enough alone to pull the price through the resistance. 2) Breaking Through of Last Peak Resistance - This "shorter" term resistance dates back to February of this year. It is very evident that it has been responsible for several upward rejections over the past months, and has finally been broken. This suggests that the current support curve carries a pretty good amount of weight along with it which could easily be enough to break through the following resistance as well. 3) MACD Patterns - (Diagram: ttp://prntscr.com/kstych) Looking at the MACD, we can depict 4 very distinct cycles between each spike. The first section, is a very uneasy region after the price has dropped down again. The second section displays some upwards momentum, but continues back downwards. The third section flattens out and begins to slope upwards over time. The fourth section, is where the price breaks through and shoots upwards. I believe that we are currently in the midst of the third section, and can expect this spike within the following month if not earlier.
TLong
by willgeorgejr
TVIX All Over The Place -- Breaks ResistanceAfter last week's downward spiral confirmation, TVIX has proven its volatility as it broke through the resistance once again. This jump was a result of the recent breakthrough of DIA as it plummeted through the market's support curve. However, this may be a very short term jump considering the market's support was extremely aggressive. I will assume - and this is very dangerous - that within a short time a more reliable support will be established and TVIX will continue its decent. This bullish behavior will most likely be extremely short term.
TLong
by willgeorgejr
TVIX Confirms Breakthrough - BEARISHAs suspected last week, TVIX has successfully broken through the support curve and continues back down towards its usual levels. The price has confirmed its breakthrough as we can see the intersection of resistance and supply lies above the current price. This suggests the following: We can expect a steady decrease in price over the following months unless a national market event pops up again. Additionally, we can expect the DIA to continue upwards back to ATH in the near future???
TShort
by willgeorgejr
1
#ES_F - Distribution, Max Pain Trade, and Downside GapsOn the monthly, this looks like a giant distribution pattern with the UTAD "Test" TL holding at resistance and the 61.8 Fib. (As of now) Is it possible we go higher? Sure.. Calling the top is difficult. As we all know, the market likes to retest open gaps. I've notated all the open gaps along with key fib levels and support. At a macro level, we know pensions are insolvent, banks and the entire financial system is over leveraged. The Max Pain trade is the perfect storm. Here's the set up.. 1. Record net long speculators in the market 2. Record net long speculators in oil 3. Record net shorts in the dollar Anytime, I hear record positions, I think "extreme," and how can "they" make the most money? "Think like a crook." This set up, the max pain trade rips the dollar and causes massive short covering. The parabolic move up of the dollar crushes oil, the market, gold, and silver. Voila.. Max pain trade where "they" make the most money and causes an implosion in the market to reset. I'm sure most agree, 2008 the US debt was bad. We had the opportunity to endure some pain, but correct it. Instead, we kicked the proverbial can down the road. Therefore, we must go lower than those levels. I keep hearing these talking heads saying, "we won't have another bear market." I 100% agree.. IT WILL BE A CRASH. When? Not sure, but I will point out the massive accumulation of volatility products. If and when we fall, here's some levels to watch for.. Call me crazy, but that 904 open gap on ES is the ideal spot.. IMO
CME_MINI:ES1!
by optionflow
Market BULLISH --- Breakthrough of ResistanceSince the peak of DIA back in early 2018, a very clear resistance curve has been formed with one solid redirection, and two nearby rejections. Things are finally looking good. With this breakthrough, a new support curve has been developed which appears to remain very strong. However, the curve is extremely aggressive, so we can expect at some point soon a more passive curve to come into play. The curve drawn is a very short term support and you should not consider any downfalls through this curve too seriously. Due to the breakthrough, this also means that market volatility should be continuing back down to its usual lows as the market is now in a bullish mentality. Leverages such as UVXY and TVIX will most likely continue to spiral downwards bringing great money for shorts.
AMEX:DIALong
by willgeorgejr
TVIX Develops Converging TriangleAs you can see in the chart, TVIX continues to bounce back and forth off of the short term support and resistance. I am certainly leaning towards bearish behavior due to the short and long term resistance curve's strength. It has rejected upthrusts 4 times so far in the past month. However, at some point the price will also begin to be challenged by the support curve as well. Up until this point I think it's safe to say you can expect the price to continue downwards.
TShort
by willgeorgejr
4
TVIX Turns Bullish - RSI RejectionYesterday everything was looking great as TVIX broke through the short run support. However, the RSI took a dip later in the afternoon and rejected this breakthrough. Looking at the price now, it has had an extreme upthrust and broke through the short run resistance... However, looking at the market as a whole, this move is very reflective as DIA has broken through its 2016 support line. This means trouble Moving forward in the coming weeks the market may be all over the place. Not really sure where I stand.
T
by willgeorgejr
11
TVIX Futures - Pivotal PointAs you can see in the chart, TVIX has reached the point in which the short term resistance crosses with the long run support. What we see next will determine the next moves of TVIX's price. There are two possibilities to the future trends. 1) If the price drops below the support line prior to the intersection, we can expect extremely bearish behavior in the coming weeks. (Great to short) 2) If the price breaks through resistance prior to the intersection, we can expect extremely bullish behavior in the coming weeks, until the price meets the longer term resistance curve.
T
by willgeorgejr
1
SP500 My perspective -start to presentI did this once before last year but I thought it is good once again to repost how I see the market, since inception in the early 1900's to today. From my perspective, we are nearing the completion of a supercycle 5th wave. And as you can see from the chart (which trading view does not go back to the beginning...see a historical chart if you want), supercycle wave 1 peaked just before the start of the 1929 crash and the great depression. Since then we have essentially been in a bull market with the exception of the 2000's which clearly appears to resemble a wave 4 correction. As you can see, what has been occurring since February isn't even noticeable. Next we will zoom in a little more to the weekly. Although it appears cluttered...try to bear with me as I am not about to clean it up more just to satisfy your eyes. Every once in a while I try to take a look at what I had going on and see if anything that I have learned over the last year or so may have changed my perspective. And the answer is yes....slightly. SO I will explain. Moving right along. Take a look at the start of the supercycle 5th wave which began at the 2009 bottom. I believe this is a more accurate count. The blue wave 2 only has a little more than a .382% retracement. So that would mean that the 4th wave correction (for the blue count) Is going to be over .50% and likely reach the .618% retracement, whenever it tops. As you can see, I do not think we are there quite yet. I am thinking that may not happen until the middle of beginning or middle of 2020. When that does happen, as you can see, it will be severe. Why so severe. Because the higher we go, the more points the percentages equate to. So while the actual points drop may look similar to the 2008 - 2009 dump, the percentage is not as great. So while drawing/updating this chart, the time proportions and Fib price extentions appear to bring us into 2020. (The other reason is that I don't think the powers that be, who are behind the scenes in American and Global politics and world banking....Don't like Trump and they may trigger a market correction to try to knock him out of office. It would have to be scary and start several months before the 2020 election to scare people away from voting for him). But that's just a conspiracy theory. ;) also notice that you can barely make out the correction that started in February of this year. Kind of crazy isn't it. Next I would like to zoom in even more to where I think we are now. I put this sub wave 1 (orange) where I did because when I zoom in to the prior dip, it appears to me to only be wave 4 of 5. Either way, it does not really matter because the fib retracement for wave 2 is very shallow. Which means that the next correction is supposed to be deep (which we are experiencing now). And I do not think we are finished yet. I zoom in even more. As you can see, we haven't even broke the .50% retracement yet. If we stayed in the wedge, then we could break the .50% and that may be my first target. But I would not be surprised that we get a wick that drops into the .618% green box range. Then I think a great long position can be started. For this next part....maybe I am wrong and we have already completed our a,b,c correction and are already starting into the final wave c drop. But that would mean that the 4th wave last a day and that just seemed too short. The reversal in price at the end of the day was interesting and we will see what happens over the next couple days to help tell the story. and now the 5 minute. Good Luck
SP:SPX
by SalN
18
Volatility Developing "Morning Star" Pattern? - Bullish Futures?As you can see in the TVIX chart, it appears as if a "Morning Star" pattern may be developing in the 4hr chart. You may point out that there is no uptrend piece - which is crucial to a morning star pattern - but on the 1hr chart this uptrend is very prevalent. Most Likely: Volatility will begin bullish behavior until it reaches the resistance curve, and then continue downwards along this resistance. However, there is also the likelihood that the price breaks through the resistance. As I have shown in previous charts, the pivotal moment is where support intersects with the short run resistance curve. What Can Happen: 1) If the price falls below the intersection we can expect volatility to continue decreasing along the resistance curve. 2) If the price breaks through and lies above the intersection, we can expect bullish behavior along the support curve as volatility increases. This option may also predict some unsettlement in the market.
T
by willgeorgejr
5