Attempt at determining the point of trend reversalLet me start off by saying I got #rekt during this bear market. In hindsight, I see that not listening to yourself and not following through with one's own predictions is a bad idea.
I had little trading knowledge back then (not that I'm a genius now), but even I could see that BTC's bullrun to 20K USD was pure euphoria. Despite that, I held most of my BTC instead of cashing out.
20K was clearly a psychological resistance, but I was a n00b, so I didn't make the right choice.
All along the bear market up until now, I've been trying to learn new trading and investing strategies.
Of course, one of the things I found was the Wall Street Cheat Sheet. It's hard not to see the similarities with reality.
Ever since, I've tried to shift my strategy for trading BTC to following the trend and identifying reversal points.
In this chart, I'm trying to find out the best places to buy and sell as BTC price goes bouncing up and down through what I like to call trend channels. Bollinger Bands (20) and EMA (60) help me determine the angle of the trend.
As of right now, it would seem to me that the angle is trying to look upwards. Volatility was falling as the BB indicate by squeezing, until an increase in volume made BTC go from 6100 to 8400, bringing back volatility.
I placed Fib Retracement levels at 20K (100%) and 5K (0%), as I felt a 75% drop from ATH was more than reasonable. Interestingly enough, 23% retracement level is at 8500, where I initially thought the sudden spike upwards would halt.
RSI is in the overbought area, while price is colliding with the upper BB, indicating the price might have gotten way too excited.
No wonder it got excited. It seems that volume is coming back. I see Crypto Twitter becoming bullish. I've witnessed many bears start to tweet about their bullish sentiment. I'm bullish too, which is why I think that trend is reversing, but I'm shorting in the short term, with a very tight stop, just in case BTC decides to push back into the second light blue box I painted.
That being said, I would'nt be surprised if the price went back down to 7500 to cool off some of that excitement, so that it can then retest the 23% Fib and hopefully consolidating inside the yellow box (price range: 7800-10k), which would be a confirmation of a trend reversal for me.
On the other hand, if it drops below 7500, for me it would mean that the bear trend has not yet finished, at which point I'd have to take a look at the chart again.
Sorry for having so many things going on at the same time on the chart, but this is how I justify my trades in BTCUSD, or determining the point of entry into alts.
TWTR not looking goodTwitter had had a massive dump just like most other tech stocks
I see a potential head and shoulders forming
Should see a bounce the fill in the gap above
Should see a big bearish move to fill in the gap at the bottom
Im playing the bounce and i will be going short on the right shoulder
TWTR - Selling premium into high IV environmentThis morning I sold 160 strike naked puts for $1.06 credit each. These options have a 30 delta at the time. This is a neutral to bullish strategy. The idea behind this trade is a contrarian play into high implied volatility . The idea being that after such a massive selloff the bears will exhaust soon and we will see a pop in price and volatility will come out of these contracts when that happens.
My defensive strategy will be if TWTR continues to fall and breaches the break even of my short puts I will then convert this trade into a short straddle, selling the 160 calls, which will neutralize the deltas (reduce directional risk), and will also collect premium to further extend my break even and reduce cost-basis.
dont buy this yet. TWITTERstock composites and tech stocks have taken a big hit over the week. whoever buys this i hope its spot and for some long term move because a leveraged long here is dumb. nasdaq e mini looks like a turd. could be head and shoulders but the trend is fren. so buyer beware. i dont expect twitter to somehow outperform itself in 3 months. do you?
Twitter on sale.Twitter has presented us with what could be a great buying opportunity resulting from a knee jerk wall street reaction. We currently are under the 100 EMA and should hold the 200 ema. Twitter had its brush with death earlier this year and since then has made a solid run. I think we will retest the bounce on the oversold region of RSI and at that point I would enter long on confirmation. This could be an opportunity to catch Twitter on sale. If Twitter cleans up their issue with BOTS I think they represent a great long term value play.
Bull Flag for TwitterDeclining volume indicates that this is a Bull Flag waiting for a breakout. We've hit the yellow dotted trend line and are hovering above the daily 50 Day MA so I expect a move pretty soon. RSI has cooled of and looks like it could be bottoming out. My only concern is that we haven't re-tested the previous high of 36.91 yet. So it's possible we fall down from this flag and test that level as support. From there I expect we would start heading back up so I would be looking for an entry around that level.
I have entered a small position for now with a stop loss at 39.9. If this is a valid Bull Flag then 55 will be the target with profit taking along the way. This target also coincides with resistant levels from previous highs in 2015 (the red lines), so I expect there will be profit taking if we hit those numbers.
There is fairly high expectations for Twitter's Q2 earnings which I think will provide the catalyst for the breakout. This kind of speculation is risky though which is why I have kept my position small for now.
***Disclaimer*** this is for educational purposes only!
QUICK BUY SNAPThere is an amazing relationship between Twitter and Snapchat. They both have had great earnings, TWTR will most likely correct itself this next week, while SNAP will remain bullish. Watch the integration of Bollinger Bands, I feel could mean a possible adjustment in their relationship regarding price. Also, about Twitter, I love this app and will take it long term over any other social media platform, it seems like Trump has given it the boost it needed, I can see it is remaining as a future powerhouse of communication - people are able to express their views in an open-fashion and the app has worked to interconnect them with political figures and news channels - I just feel there needs to be greater international expansion...