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If you read this you will never participate in any IPO..!It is obvious that many people who participated in BMBL IPO are in red zone, but the worst has yet to come! Look at TWITTER, SNAP,FACEBOOK, SPOTIFY, and PINTEREST historical charts..! Clearly anyone who participated in those IPO in the very first day lost 50-85% of his his capital in several weeks or months! I’m currently conducting a study on IPO Ed stock in last 3 years, obviously you are in danger of losing your capital in 3 out of 4 recently IPOed stocks. It doesn’t matter if you are a trader or longterm investor, you have to take care of your capital. 1st day IPO = Bubble burst..! A bubble is an economic cycle that is characterized by the rapid escalation of market value, particularly in the price of assets. ... During a bubble, assets typically trade at a price, or within a price range, that greatly exceeds the asset's intrinsic value (the price does not align with the fundamentals of the asset)(investopedia) BMBL chart is 30 minutes, others are weekly charts..! Please write your experiences of participating in IPOs in comments
NASDAQ:BMBLShort
by Moshkelgosha
13
TWTR to 100! Narrative change will leads to a high valuation As the only social media stock lagging behind all these years, this is TWTR's year. A large cup and handle pattern is finally breaking out. The first major target is 100. The catalysts could be paid service (it is the most sought after platform for knowledge-based marketing, clubhouse, and revival of periscope into mini tiktoc). Those incremental services would launch TWTR into a new valuation sphere. Using meaningful pullbacks to add positions and sell PCS at support.
NYSE:TWTRLong
by Jonas99
TWTR: Covered Call into earnings: why & what's next?in this post, i quickly share why i love selling covered call into the earnings for stocks that i held for sometimes and i'm ready to cash out of. I sold the Feb 12 Call option with strike $65 for TWTR yesterday for $2.20 Why ? how is this a good trade? i believe selling CC into earnings is one of the lowest risk trades - it's a great weapon to add to your trade arsenal, cause we win in all scenarios .. here's the break down and the thinking behind this trade (quick notes - i'm not an options expert and i exclusively trade the 4 basic strategies -- sell/buy calls/puts -- i don't get into spreads - but there are may resources that explain covered calls in a lot more details on the web if anyone is interested) Scenario #1: TWTR closes below $65 on Friday Feb 12 if volatility (IV) is strong for the option ahead of earnings, which is usually the case for stocks like TWTR (and most other social media and tech companies), the option premium will reflect a higher extrensic value (vega) - once the earnings resuts are out, volatility drops, causing the premium to "go back to normal" price. for the sell side, that means easy profit (premium to keep). in our case here, the premium for the Feb 12 $65 call was $2.2 (IV was ~180% when i opened the position) - if volatility comes down today to ~40%, the call option maybe worth $0.5 -- and with only 3 days to expiry, even that $0.5 would eventually drop to zero at expiry (provided TWTR remains below $65) - we end up keeping both the full $2.20 premium and the stock Scenario #2: TWTR closes above $65 on Friday we will get assigned and the stock is "called" away at the strike price $65 - keeping the call premium of $2.20 since we already had a good run with TWTR (see the breakeven / BE marked on the chart) and were ready to close the position at current price level ~$60, getting $67.20 is even a better deal. Scenario #3: TWTR drops down after the earnings for any reason (was not expected) The call price will drop and we will close it for profit and still continue to hold the stock - which is not a bad thing since we originally think TWTR is on a good path in future. ** note: TWTR is hovering around the $62 in after-hours/pre-market after strong earnings. now for the price projection: the projection for the current move for TWTR is $16 from the mid-Jan base of ~ $46 which takes us to around the $62 price level (+/- couple of $$) - then the price may ease up back to the mid $50's (the nearest supply/demand "balance level") before moving up again (this is also why i thought the $65 strike with 3 days to expiry was the best choice) the UTO (lower indicator) on the daily chart is reaching 100% -- showing that this is a possible top for the price and supporting a new wave of consolidation at that level - so seems to support our projection. if our covered call gets assigned, we can then look for another opportunity (an upcoming dip) for re-entry to catch the next move. we remain bullish overall on TWTR. this is my 4th covered call trade in this earning season and it's a great way to add to our PnL for stocks that we already hold, especially those positions we were looking at closing or rotating out of. this is a basic option strategy that is easy to learn and follow, with an opportunity to repeat every earnings - as rewarding as dividends if not more :) - so i hope it works for other fellow traders here and i hope i managed to explain it well . let me know in your comments.
NYSE:TWTRLong
by RedKTrader
2
TWITTER SET TO MOVE BIGIPO investors have long felt the pain of this stock. The hype surrounding this stock was real but the bulls quickly lost control. 7 years later and Twitter still has not rewarded those initial investors, that will change soon and here is my case. We see something that resembles an ADAM AND EVE BOTTOM which formed between 2016 to mid 2017. The volume profile shows those levels had the largest amount of trading action. Following a failed breakout in June 2019 and Sept 2019 Twitter too felt the pain from the March 2020 COVID-Panic. The price found support precisely at the top of the ADAM AND EVE. The bears couldn't drop the price any lower as the bulls came stampeding back. The telling part of this move was that the drop was not able to penetrate the section of the volume profile with the most action. This gives me confirmation that the bottom is in. The velocity of this bounce looks serious and a large move in imminent. In the early twitter price action we see a large gap that is almost hidden. This gap coincides almost perfectly with the 1.618 fib extension. The volume profile shows the resistance is getting weaker the higher the price goes. Twitter experienced a massive hack with some of the biggest accounts getting hacked including a former President!. The price neve flinched. Not only is my SHORT TERM TARGET $64, but my long term outlook on this stock is ultra promising. I think a lot of big tech will see some serious stumbles and Twitter is in shape to start a bullish market cycle. Where will the fleeing money of AAPL go? We will be hearing a great deal about Twitter in the coming days as Jack Dorsey being pressured to testify. While you would think this would have a negative effect on the price, I believe the chart is looking for any excuse to break higher to the upside. We just saw a miss on earnings but the price went up because "analysts" liked the growth in users. When a chart is ready to move, even something seemingly negative can give the spark needed to take it to an inevitable direction. The "analysts" will feed the public a narrative of why it happened but as the influential investor Bernard Baruch said "Show me the chart and I will tell you the news" If this analysis was interesting please give me a like an a follow. Also, please look at the related links for the similarities of the early Facebook breakout with where twitter currently sits. Regards
NYSE:TWTRLong
by ceesounds
1
Long TWTR into Earnings, Using Pull back to Add PositionsTWTR is likely to report a somewhat mixed quarter but monetization is likely to be good and a few new strategies could also excite investors. Stock is clearly on an uptrend and being bought on any dips. The company for all its misgivings remains one of the most valuable properties of social media yet remains undervalued compared to most other tech majors. It is also the platform that has the most potential for incremental improvement. The plan is to do PCS and long shares and sell ATM calls, a somewhat conservative strategy for being bullish.
NYSE:TWTRLong
by Jonas99
THE WEEK AHEAD: TWTR, TEVA, UA, UBER, ZNGA EARNINGS; MJ, SLVA little late to the game this week, but don't think I missed much. EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS IN UNDERLYINGS WITH HIGHLY LIQUID OPTIONS: TWTR (53/84),* announcing Tuesday after market close. TEVA (16/63), announcing Wednesday before market open. UA (42/68), announcing Wednesday before market open. UBER (11/59), announcing Wednesday after market close. ZNGA (11/63), announcing Wednesday after market close. Pictured here is a plain Jane 16-delta short put in TWTR in the March monthly, paying 1.48 at the mid price as of today's close with a 46.52 break even/cost basis if assigned, 3.18% ROC at max as a function of notional risk. If you're of a nondirectional bent, consider the March 19th 49/70 short strangle paying 3.00 or the 44/49/70/75 iron condor, paying 1.30. Due to the obvious skew here, I'd also consider a double double, but it would require going ten wide on the call side due to only 5 wides being available on the call side in March at the deltas I'd want to camp out, so it's less than ideal: 2 x 42/2 x 47/70/80, paying 2.42, delta/theta 1.41/4.55. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY 30-DAY IMPLIED VOLATILITY: MJ (74/89) SLV (34/50) ICLN (7/45) JETS (7/43) XRT (21/41) EWZ (14/40) XLE (18/38) GDX (12/38) BROAD MARKET RANKED BY 30-DAY IMPLIED VOLATILITY: IWM (24/31) QQQ (14/26) SPY (10/21) DIA (7/19) EFA (13/18) * -- The first metric is where 30-day lies relative to where it's been over the past 52 weeks; the second, 30-day implied.
NYSE:TWTR
by NaughtyPines
TWTR: Long SHARES into Earnings but sell ATM calls to be safeTWTR has shown significant reversal technically and 1st target is 51. It is after all a monopoly and monetization will be good, losing users from banning half of America is a short-term issue and is probably priced in. After all, most of the users on TWTR are leaning left. Cheap compared to all other major social media names. Charts don't lie, enough people want to own it and enough people are using it and enough cloud to be considered a monopoly for a long time to come. Am inclined to sell ATM covered call to collect some premium just in case the user # is really bad and the street care, then they may not.
NYSE:TWTRLong
by Jonas99
3