TWTR
Twitter SHORT like Forecasted YesterdayTwitter has disappointed and is falling in a big hole.
But in my oppionion such a drop doesnt come out of the
Nirwana.
As the Long trendline has been broken in September
and trading below major support these stock has been
ready for that fall.
In my eyes, the chart tells us all and here the buyers have
been gone away from that stock since weeks.
Thats a sign of no confidence nad the reality comes
now.
We have to wait how far it goes for a further analysis.
DONT !! catch in a falling knife (you know...)
Good trades
Good trades
If you want to support my work please like them...
and if you want to know more about my trading style
please send my a boardmail.
Renkotrade
TWTR Twitter SHORT but Datas to come Whatch the trendlineHello to all watching my charts.
Here in a daily Timeframe my view of twitter before
earinings.
Of course somebody will tell:
Wait untill earings to forecast but i think its interesting to have a
view on Twitter before !
and only in a technical view
Than we are able after the earings to confirm the technical
view or to change them cause of big buy volumes
for example,
cause ist eays to see that Twitter is in a short mode
at the moment broke support and broke trendline.
My channelsystem tells me short.
Lets have a look again tomorrow to see whether
i am right or not.
Good trades
If you want to know more about my trading style
please send my a boardmail.
Renkotrade
Get long twtr before earningsTwitter has just completed a 4th(red) wave and is looking for a 5th to complete the green 5. Get long before earnings this Thursday. Be wary- this count suggests a near term rally could be met with a significant decline.
However, calling the end of the third wave might have been premature, so it is possible that this rally will continue for a lot longer rather than topping out. Either way, the implication is to the upside in the short term, as this near term pullback serves as a buying opportunity.
THE WEEK AHEAD: TWTR, TSLA, EARNINGS:
Pictured here is a delta neutral TWTR (42/54) short strangle in the November monthly camped out at the 17 delta paying 1.08, > 1 standard deviation break evens at 32.92/55.08, and delta theta metrics of .70/5.06. Earnings are scheduled to be announced on Thursday, the 24th before market open, so look to put on something on the 23rd before the close to take advantage of any volatility crush, adjusting strikes as necessary.
TSLA (26/57) rolls out earnings on the Wednesday, the 23rd after market close. The November 15th 220/300 camped out around the 15 delta is paying 5.94 at the mid with greater than 1 standard deviation break evens at 214.06/305.94 and delta/theta metrics of 1.78/30.78. The correspondent defined risk 210/220/300/310 iron condor pays 2.23 and delta/theta metrics of .34/7.27.
Although neither of these have ideal rank/implied metrics for volatility contraction plays, they are probably the best of the bunch that announce next week, although BA (53/38) (Wednesday before market open) might also prove interesting, particularly if volatility ramps up on Monday and Tuesday.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS
GLD (59/15)
SLV (55/25)
TLT (48/14)
GDXJ (46/34)
GDX (45/24)
USO (32/37)
XOP (25/36)
At some point, we'll move onto a different tune, but the market continues to play "Silver and Gold" (and Oil).
BROAD MARKET
EFA (23/13)
SPY (14/14)
IWM (13/18)
DIA (12/14)
QQQ (10/18)
EEM (6/16)
Neither rank nor implied is great here, so would probably hand sit, keep powder dry for an uptick in volatility.
First Expiry In Which At-The-Money Short Straddle Pays >10%:
IWM: May -- 16.52 versus 152.61 spot (10.8%)
SPY: June -- 31.15 versus 297.97 spot(10.5%)
QQQ: June -- 24.11 versus 191.69 spot (12.6%)
DIA: June -- 27.53 versus 267.64 spot (10.3%)
EFA: Sept -- 7.15 versus 66.27 spot (10.8%)
The shortest duration setup is in May (208 days), where expiry-specific implied is at 20.2% (versus November's 17.6%). There, the IWM 130/2 x 177 ratio'd short strangle with the put leg at the 16, the calls doubled up at the 9 pays 3.63 with break evens wide of the 1 standard deviation lines at 126.37/178.82, and delta/theta metrics of -1.13/2.71, where a pull out at 25% max gets you .91 if you don't want to wait for the 1.82 at 50. Personally, I don't know whether I'm that desperate for theta yet ... .
FUTURES (Excluding the Treasury Complex)
/6B (80/24)
/GC (59/14)
/SI (55/24)
/ZW (37/31)
/NG (35/56)
/6E (34/6)
/ZC (32/32)
/CL (32/37)
Cable continues to continue to feel the volatility love on the back of a supposed Brexit deal, with natty getting frisky in the cooler days of the North American early fall. Ordinarily, this would imply that premium should be sold in /NG, but am sticking with my bullish assumption seasonality play put on in winter expiries at summer lows and pretty much leaving it at that. That being said, I could see selling some January 28th 2 put (which lines up nicely with multi-year lows), but need to wait until active futures to price those out ... .
VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES
Wait for another pop to VIX >20 to add bearish assumption in VXX/UVXY or 2019 lows to add VIX bullish assumption spreads.
Alternatively, look to add bearish assumption VIX term structure* (See Post Below) trades in front months, with the VIX December 17/20 paying .85 with a 17.85 break even versus the December /VX contract trading at 17.52; the January 18/21 paying .85 with an 18.85 break even versus 18.42; and the February 18/21 paying .90 with an 18.90 break even versus 18.77.
LONG TWITTER WITH INVESTMENT HORIZON FOR 3 QUARTERLY REPORTI expect a drawdown of Twitter in general with a drawdown of the market after the release of bad PMI in the USA,
and the purchase of twitter with the investment horizon on the report, all details are reflected in the graph,
please zoom in to see the text on the graph
TWITTER ON ITS WAY TO $36With price making one more tap of $43.00 today I am pleased to believe that we are now enroute to our $36 mark/ monthly zone, where in which we should be seeing our next bullish price action before pushing up to
$44.87
Please message me for further details or any help and blessed trading! :)
TWTR has a little more upside left but is headed downThanks for checking out this post, sorry about the right side of the graph, if you take your time with it I think it'll make sense, everything there is important, and I'll answer any questions you may have. I think right now we are in a B wave of an ABC to the downside, details are in the chart visual and verbal.
TWTR looking like a double top, similar to 2014/2015.TWTR is currently putting in what appears to be a double top. We saw a similar structure form back in 2014/2015 before Twitter headed lower. There is a possibility we may see that pattern repeat here. I am looking for a pull-back to some of the weekly moving averages. Also, for any crypto traders out there, Binance just launched their US exchange (Binance US.) If you need a link to go sign up, click here--> www.binance.us
MA Guide (All weekly for this post):
50 MA in Green.
100 MA in Yellow.
200 MA in Red.
-This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk. I am not liable for any incurred losses or financial distress.
Twitter has some upsideGrinding towards resistance at 47$. We are in a wedge formation/ascending triangle. RSI still bullish looking for a break to the upside of the triangle. To get in Im looking for a pullback to lower trendline and fib .618 that seem good entry levels. Macro pattern is also looking like a cup and handle, if its 80$. My first target would be 56 with a sl at 35. Elections coming up gives twitter also good momentum.