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TWTR

TWTR to reestablish lowsVery large head and shoulders finishing out the right shoulder(s) now. Attempt to reclaim the yearly pivot zone (Pink) failed providing very bearish price action in chich the pivot was gapped below, and failed a retest. So far TWTR has also been rejected by it's maco supply & demand channel. the Head and shoulders price target is well below the next yearly support zone, and therefore I have chosen that zone as my exit. I expect a fair amount of meandering so I set my expiration date for January 2020, when a new set of yearly pivots is generated. my stop is a daily close above the previous swing high. Position taken: Long Put TWTR $18 Strike 01/17/2020 Expy. Denoted by the Red and Blue circle
NYSE:TWTRShort
by PJBTrade
THE WEEK AHEAD: M EARNINGS, XOP, TSLA, FCX, X, TWTR, BIDUPictured here is the only earnings announcement-related volatility contraction play with the metrics I'm looking for: greater than 70% rank and greater than 50% 30-day (it was 68/55 as of Friday close). Setup Metrics: 3.40 credit, break evens at 20.60/27.40, -8.20 delta, 3.1 theta. Obvious alternatives would be the April 18th 21/27 short strangle paying 1.21 with break evens at 19.79/28.21, a delta of -4.5, and theta of 2.43 and -- for those with a defined risk bent -- the 19/22/26/29 iron condor in the same expiry, paying 1.23 with 20.77/27.23 break evens, a -2.64 delta, and a theta of 1.15. On the exchange-traded fund front, the highest volatility remains in petro, with OIH, XOP, and USO taking the top three spots for 30-day implied at 31, 30, and 29, respectively, followed by EWZ at 29, and GDXJ at 26. With the exception of GDXJ, however, all of these are in the lower one quarter of their 52-week range (GDXJ's in the 31st percentile). As with last week, I'll continue to sell premium in XOP, albeit smaller than usual, reserving buying power for a richer volatility environment. Single names with earnings in the rear view ranked by 30-day: TSLA (12/49), FCX (24/43), X (18/43), TWTR (8/38), and BIDU (24/35). I'm in a FCX slightly bullish short straddle at 14 as a kind of quasi-bullish copper play, and have gone with a "not a penny more" short put in X (See Posts Below). As alternative plays, the X April 18th 24 short straddle is paying 2.83 (.71 at 25% max) with the 21/27 short strangle paying .84 (.42 at 50% max) The TWTR April 18th 32 short straddle is paying 3.61 at the mid (.90 at 25% max) with the 28/35 short strangle paying 1.19 (.60 at 50% max) in the same expiry. Spreads in both TSLA and BIDU are unattractively wide.
NYSE:M
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD: TWTR, TSLA, X, FCX, NFLX, XOPEARNINGS: The only underlying that interests me for an earnings announcement-related volatility contraction play this coming week is TWTR (62/67). Preliminary Setups: March 15th 28/38 Short Strangle (Pictured): 1.73 credit (.87 at 50% max), break evens at 26.27/39.73, -8.98 delta, 4.78 theta. March 15th 25/28/38/41 Iron Condor: 1.01 credit (.50 at 50% max), break evens at 26.99/39.01, -1.45 delta, 1.70 theta. March 15th 33 Short Straddle: 5.24 credit (1.31 at 25% max), break evens at 27.76/38.24, -10.32 delta, 8.27 theta. March 15th 24/33/33/42 Iron Fly: 4.70 credit (1.17 at 25% max), break evens at 28.30/37.70, -3.87 delta, 3.70 theta. Notes: As you can see by the chart, it has a tendency to move somewhat big around earnings. Although it's small enough to short straddle, I would lean toward the short strangle or iron condor for a play, since it gives you greater adjustment flexibility intratrade than, for example, the iron fly, although you can always invert the short straddle if the move is overly large. NON-EARNINGS SINGLE NAME TSLA (20/58) X (23/44) FCX (20/42) NFLX (21/39) Notes: I'm not hugely keen on nondirectional premium selling in these given their rank metrics. From a price action standpoint, I could see re-upping with a bullish directional assumption play in FCX on weakness (i.e., upward call diagonal, short put, short straddle with a bullish delta metric), but will have to price something out during the New York session to see whether it makes sense. Out of the money short puts in March don't appear to be paying squat, but the April 11's (37 delta) are paying .60 with a 10.40 break even (a 9.6% discount over current price), which would make for a fairly decent "wheel" play ... . EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS/MAJORS Petro continues to grove on good background volatility, even though the rank metrics aren't there, with USO at 22/33, OIH at 24/31, and XOP at 14/30 (all at the low end of their 52-week ranges), with my go-to XOP still paying 2.44 at the mid for the March 15th 31 short straddle (.61 at 25% max). It's not great, but it's not yet "marginal." On the majors front, volatility has bled out of the market with QQQ at 21/20, IWM at 20/18, DIA at 20/17, and SPY at 30/16. A VIX at 16.14 doesn't exactly constitute a "come hither" look, so would hand sit on buying power for a richer premium selling environment.
NYSE:TWTR
by NaughtyPines