TWTR
Time to sell your TWTR stock may be approachingTWTR had a great week this week, huge full bodied green candle. Volume wasn't as good as previous push up. If we get a red week next week, it will paint a bearish divergence on the RSI weekly. We are now touching a possible downward trendline. Daily reveals a parabolic movement up.
Risk:reward tilts towards a short play. Short this resistance level now if you dare, but I recommend waiting for a break down from the parabola or a confirmed weekly bear div.
SNAP long NYSE:SNAP , 4h and 1D close about key resistance can skyrocket SNAP higher (high short interest). Resistance at $12, next target at $14 (20%). No 4h candle close above $12 = no entry.
The Citron report will add some fuel for the longs: money.cnn.com
$TWTR Twitter Rising Wedge Into ResistanceTwitter broke through ~$34 resistance briefly today only to close at resistance. Accumulation appears to have flat-lined in this most recent move back to $34. Expecting resistance to hold and retrace 5-10% in the near term.
Note: A close above resistance on strong volume this week would negate this analysis. Informational only, not investment advice.
$TWTR - Regulation May Give Pressure Towards $28=> Increased sector regulation via Cambridge Analytica etc is going to be bad news for TWTR and we believe the recent squeeze in shorts has run its course.
=> Despite front-end rates ticking to the upside this year, differentials will not be enough to protect global Equity pressure will encourage investors to sell, especially in the U.S.
=> A likely correction is necessary and healthy in this case as we look for a more meaningful rebound in TWTR towards the end of Q318.
=> From a technical perspective we are seeing weakness around the 61.8 fib as widely expected.
GL all
THE WEEK AHEAD: DIS, AKS, P, TSLA, TWTR, X, MU, DISHWith most of the earnings heavy hitters in the rear view mirror, there isn't much to trade this week of quality from an earnings announcement volatility contraction standpoint, with DIS being the standout name.
DIS announces on Tuesday after market close with a 30-day implied volatility of 25%, which is in the upper half of its 52-week range. The May 18th 96/97 16 delta short strangle pays .97 with a 75% probably of profit, which isn't horrible, but I'd rather have a background implied above 50%.
One underlying that I don't usually trade earnings that caught my eye, however, was DISH, with an implied of >50%, which is at the top end of its 52-week range. It announces earnings on Tuesday before market open. You can naturally play it for earnings-related vol contraction (the May 18th 20-delta 30.5/37.5 short strangle's paying .88), but the chart may suggest taking a directional shot instead. I'll set out several bullish assumption plays in a separate post that would take advantage of its "being on its butt-dom."
On the slip side of the coin, there are several individual names that have that ~50% metric I'm looking for that have already announced and that may be worth nondirectional plays that are just as -- if not more productive -- than the Disney earnings play if set up in the June monthly. Here they are, ranked by their 30-day implied volatility percentages: AKS (65.5) (straddle), P (59.2) (straddle), TSLA (53.9) (strangle), TWTR (49.5) (strangle), X (48.6) (strangle), and MU (47) (strangle).*
On the exchange-traded fund front, not much is attractive, having all fallen below 35% 30-day implied: XOP (29.3), EWZ (28.5), SMH (26.9), EWW (24.9), FXI (22.8), so I'm unlikely to consider putting on a play in one of those unless something substantially changes as the week evolves. Moreover, my tendency is to set those up in the monthlies nearest 45 days until expiration and June (40 days 'til) is starting to "fall out of that window," with July (75 days 'til) being too far out in time.
* -- You can naturally consider going defined risk with some of these, using iron flies instead of naked short straddles; iron condors instead of short strangles.
TWTR reaches at trendline supportAfter a quick fall from $33, TWTR reached trendline support at 28.40 and rebound after buyers take control.
Trade: Buy TWTR 29.20
TP1 30.90
TP2 32.00
SL daily close below 28.40
TWTR Inside day after earningsTWTR has an inside day after earnings.
It can be a solid trade itself , and it's also fine to look for the confirmation for both side.
If it breaks to the upside, it can be the confirmation entry for the recent bullish 2618 ;
if it breaks to the downside, it will be the tiny time frame's continuation.
so it's a inside day that worth trading no matter which direction it breaks.
Let's see how it goes!
$TWTR Holding Uptrend - Solid Earnings Report$TWTR - Solid earnings report this morning. Expecting the stock to hold this uptrend line. Looking like a buy around $28.50 with upside into the mid-30s. AO indicator bullish, trending toward positive territory.
TWTR LONG29.50-29.71 might just be new support. If we hold above 34 chances are high we will hit 40. Im bullish on twitter.
THE WEEK AHEAD: TWTR, X, IYR, XLU, ORCL, IBMAlthough there are quite a few earnings coming up next week, only two catch my eye from a premium selling standpoint: Twitter and U.S. Steel.
Twitter announces on Wednesday before market open; has a 30-day implied volatility of 75.19%; and the May 4th 20-delta, 74% probability of profit 27.5/38 short strangle is paying 1.28 at the mid with its defined risk counterpart, the 24/27.5/38/41 iron condor paying .87.
US Steel (which can be a mover; 30-day implied 59.6%) announces on Wednesday after market close; and the May 4th 20-delta, 72% probability of profit 33/41 is paying 1.07 with its defined risk counterpart, the 30/33/41/44, paying .69.
On the exchange-traded fund front, nothing looks particularly enticing at the moment. OIH and XOP round out the top of the pile volatility-wise, but their 30-days are sub-35, with other funds trailing off from there, so I'm looking at potentially putting on a couple of directional plays in single names where earnings are in the rear view mirror -- ORCL and IBM and/or in exchange-traded funds where concerns over rising interest rates and/or comparative yield have beaten them down, temporarily or otherwise -- IYR and XLU.
I'll set out those ideas in a separate post, since there are multiple ways in which you can go directional with an options setup in those without hanging up a lot of buying power in actual shares. Additionally, sometimes it can be worth comparing and contrasting various "options options" so that you can decide which strategy suits your preference as to how much you want to devote to the trade ... .
TWTR medium term shortThe stock broke a couple of support levels today.
It is still messing around in limbo around the weekly PP, but this is how the set up looks like.
Twtr cup and handle form break out for handle can be a buy zoneTwtr cup and handle form break out for handle can be a buy zone
TWTR BEARISH FOR THE MOMENTMight retest 100 resistance line if bounces off 78.6 retracement. If it breaks thru 78.6 then might be pushing passed 61.8 retracements. Please let me know if you think otherwise, always open to new ideas.
SNAP can rallyShares of SNAP have been beaten down for weeks now, but today's decline has shares testing an upward sloping trend line that's held on multiple tests so far. I just jumped in via April 20th $15 calls for 32c.
TWTR could fall significantlyShares of TWTR are looking vulnerable after breaking below post-earnings channel. There's an open gap that needs to be resolved, and given broader tech concerns and high valuations, I'm shorting it (again).
Its a steal here within the accumulation zone.Buy here with a wide stop... looks like an easy doubling of money given the long accumulation zone range.
QQQ in troubleAfter forming an island reversal last week, complete with a massive bearish engulfing candle off of all time highs, the break below the trend line support and 20dsma seemed fitting. Today's action was bearish, as volumes were subdued relative to recent down days. This suggest that few participants are eager to defend prices in a significant way and bid the market higher, so it seems bears have taken control of this market. I'm a seller, especially specific names heavily weighted in the index. I closed TWTR short today after huge success, added to NFLX short, initiated ADBE and FDX short, stood still on my TSLA short, and opened a deep OTM FB long put after noticing unusually high volume at the April 115/120 strikes (several spreads, buying the 120's and selling 115's and massive volume relative to open interest). I also took a flyer on ORCL, buying April calls for a bounce, as this selloff seems overdone.
Bottom line... Watch out below!
TWTR - Bullish Swing TradeThis is a bullish swing trade I entered on Friday, I bought the re-test of the breakout. My target is $43.09.
