TWTR
TWTR 3rd touch of daily trendlineTWTR is a curious instrument to watch in the following sessions as the stock has tested daily descending trendline that connects close values of 09.Dec 2014 and 24.Aug. By now TWTR has technically touched its projection at 17.15. Keeping in mind stock behaviour during previous bearish craze we need to keep in mind potential shadow to the downside.
17.20 area test is considered a buy area targeting 21.20.
TWTR -- COVERED CALL IDEAI'm gradually working my way up the totem pole of underlyings for covered call possibilities, having started out this cycle with sub $5 possibilities, moved onto candidates in the $5-$10 range, and then into issues within the $10-$20 range.
Slightly above $20 a share (weighing in at $22.97) is TWTR, which currently has an implied volatility rank of 52 and an implied volatility of 61. The covered call setup looks enticing here, within break even metrics below the 52-wekk low:
Buy 100 shares TWTR at 22.97
Sell 1 Feb 19th 23 call
Total Package: $20.39 ($2039, making your break even $20.39 a share)
Max Profit: $261 (If called away at $23, a mere .03 away from current price)
Notes: This play straddles TWTR's earnings announcement on 2/4. Naturally, anything could happen there, but the general pattern has been for TWTR to "not lose as much as expected." In the rather ironic world of equities markets, coming in 3rd instead of 5th in a race is sometimes rewarded with a price bounce, which is what I hope for here (I mean, I'm only asking for .03 between now and expiration ... ). And then there are the old buyout rumors ... .
Above 30$ - Will earnings bounce it to 37$?Since my latest analysis, $TWTR rallied and reached the 30$ target zone (see linked idea).
Now, $TWTR is forming potential bull flag, just below the 32-33$ structure zone.
It looks like $TWTR is about to break out of both the structure zone and the trading channel (black dashed lines) towards the next target zone - 36-37$
The Fast and 50 SMA lines act as support now and a potential pullback towards 26$ (although it will be painful) will still keep the bullish setup valid.
The bullish Butterfly is still the main setup here as I'm looking for the price to reach the pattern's target levels.
Tomer, The MarketZone.net
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TWTR Lower Trendline BreakLast one for the evening. It looks like TWTR is breaking its lower trendline on the ascending triangle pattern it was putting in. The small wick at the top of today's candle stick could have been a backtest of the trendline and appears to be forming a bear pennant formation in the short term. Will be waiting for confirmation that it is going to continue to the downside. If a trade is taken on the short side be cautious of the major support at 36 and watch for signs of slowing momentum to the downside after such a large move.
TWTR Cyper Buy Pattern to close the gapJust like my HOG Chart TWTR looks like a low risk buy despite the falling knife.
We have a cypher pattern with a perfect 1.272 extension to C and a 786 retracement to where we are.
We are also at the bottom support line which is the 618 from May of 2014 and the 786 of the swing from Feb.
Looking for a closing of the gap.
Just an idea for selling puts or buying calls or the stock.
TWTR Wedge and Potential Butterfly PatternEDIT: johneee3456 correctly pointed out that XB cannot exceed .500 for it to be a bat pattern; my mistake! Instead this could potentially be a butterfly, which would require:
XB to be a .786 (we're close with a .782)
AC to be a .886 (we're close with a .897)
XD to be a 1.27 or 1.618 (not pictured)
It's late and I don't feel like redoing the chart, but if you move point D down so XD is a 1.27 extension you'd have your butterfly. I still think the possibility to retrace to to the 45s is possible, and since point D on a butterfly is below X I also think it's possible we might see some resistance around the 29s. Below is the original post,
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I called this one two days ago (see comment in related idea).
Looks like we have a bat pattern getting ready to complete. Earnings got leaked early today resulting in an 18% decline and trading was halted temporarily. After market it looks like we're down to $41.58, so we'll either see one of two things tomorrow when trading opens:
A) We'll keep going down toward the bottom of the wedge (blue arrow), or
B) We'll retrace back to the .618 and give that another test (red arrow)
Since we've been seeing lower highs we're still in bearish territory, but those higher lows give us potential to change that as long as the .618 retracement is broken through. If you're not already short on this the .618 retracement might make a nice entry point, with initial targets at the .382 and secondary targets at point D.
In addition to already being short (I stopped myself in @ 49.90), I'm looking to get long at point D with a target of $39.90, which is not only the .382 retracement of the CD leg in our bat pattern, but it's also the bottom of the wedge. Now all we have to do is wait for things to break through and make this a reality...