Raoul Pal from Real Vision has been active in pushing the line "Buy bonds wear diamonds" as the two asset classes to buy in this market regime. Can't say I disagree since I published the "Preponderance of Evidence" series of ideas back in Oct'18. TY1! is slowly and surely creeping along an intermediate uptrend line after bouncing off a multi-decade channel...
=> Here we can see TY1 futures forming a topping pattern and testing key support levels... => With smart money scared of inflation returning bonds continue to be sold. This may be marking the top for the Equity markets. => Expecting a very active quarter ahead as we reach the end of the road on QE in Europe and with yields continuing to rise in the US we are...
Right, I have articulated previously on how I feel fundamentally about S&P500 earnings growth and think the anti-trade rhetoric is not going away till Nov mid-terms. ES1! is trading at the top of a mini-wedge tucked within a medium term wedge. Drawing on my Dr Suess instincts to try to explain this: Wedge 1 is mini wedge which I believe is a continuation...
This idea supports the previous interest rate outlook. I advise you to book profits on the idea given last September (see related) earlier than set target at 116'07 and this is why: The long-term trend together with the previous low offers strong support for the price and could reject the drop in the 117-118 area. In this area the wave C = 1.272 of wave A and this...
In a world where bunds and JGBs are zero bound, why wouldn't 3% yield and an appreciating USD be attractive to global investors? There is a weekly ABCD completion in the TY1! on high volumes which coincides with a major multi-decade structural uptrend support. A break above 119.40 in the 240M chart would be confirmation. A long in the UST10 can be hedged off...
FED announced balance trimming. The technicals perfectly match that decision (always a matter of disputes between tech analysts and macro analysts). We got large correction before and broke below it. Now the price made a perfect pullback to the broken line shaping my favorite Bear Flag pattern. Watch to sell on breakdown.
At the end of last September I called for the drop in the 10-year US T-notes with quite aggressive target (see related idea). In this and the next update I came to the thought that the drop could be over earlier as rates are reaching important resistance level. Despite the aggressive tone on the rate rise in US, I think the upside is limited based on this...
Please read my detailed analysis here: chartingtrades.com
Working on daily swing low, weekly hammer $ZN_F, $FGBL, $EURUSD
Preparing to break out from channel $FGBL
Worth keeping an eye on here to see whether the divergence yields some timing insight here into gold.
At extreme levels, however, the data doesn't look correct... I'm certain it is the most extreme since 2005!
RSI divergence after massive and over extended decline. RSI also in oversold territory for almost 2 months. Price hit a long term support level, formed a hammer candle last session, and engulfing bullish pattern today.